This morning’s Times has a new YouGov poll with topline figures of CON 28%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 11%(-1), BREXIT 8%(+3), UKIP 6%(-1), GRN 5%(+1), Change 3% (new). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday and changes are since the start of April. This is the first standard YouGov poll that’s included Change UK – now they are in the process of registering as a political party I expect we’ll start to see them included in most polls.

The Conservative score of 28% is the first time YouGov have shown them dropping below 30% since 2013. While one can never be certain about what has caused changes in voting intention, it is hard to avoid the obvious conclusion that they are shedding support to more unambiguously pro-Brexit parties like UKIP and the Brexit party.

As ever, one should be cautious about reading too much into any single poll, but this is pretty much in line with other recent polling. A BMG poll last week put Labour 2 points ahead and the Conservatives down at 29%, a Survation poll this week (unusually of England & Wales only) produced a four point Labour lead. Kantar’s latest poll produced a three point Labour lead (and a startling 9 point drop in Tory support, though I suspect that was at least partially a reversion to the mean after an usually high Tory lead in their previous poll). Across the board Conservative support seems to be falling away.

The YouGov poll also included voting intention for the European elections. Initial headline figures there are CON 16%, LAB 24%, LDEM 8%, BREXIT 15%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%, Change 7%.

I should add some caveats here. It is, obviously, very early – the European elections have only just been announced and people are unlikely to have put much if any thought towards who they will support. This early measure however suggests that the Conservatives will, as widely predicted, suffer badly. As yet they are narrowly in second place, but I would by no means assume that will hold (not least, the Brexit party will still be largely unknown and many respondents will be unaware that they are now the party of Nigel Farage, rather than UKIP, and I’d expect them to gain support as they gain publicity. Equally, it remains to be seen what impact there is on Change UK support once they officially launch as a party.

Full tabs for both questions are here.

1,689 Responses to “YouGov voting intention for Westminster & the European elections”

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  1. hello AW

  2. Very good to see these new EP polls being analyzed.

    I suppose the point of differentiation between the Tories and the Brexit/UKIP is that the former want a deal with the EU , perhaps in a joint arrangement with Labour, while the latter want no deal.

    In this scenario it is possible the Tories come out as being more responsible and concerned about the damaging implications of a no-deal breit than the other two hard line parties, and they may not suffer as much as people think.

  3. @ Sam

    I’m sure I read recently that people in the mid to late forties category were the most likely to change from Remain to Leave in the event of a second referendum which reinforces your argument about oldies driving the Leave vote.

    The educational argument is an interesting one, it could be argued either way that those with less education are more likely to be unencumbered free thinkers or that they are more likely to be culturally blinkered in their views.

    The same could be said of more educated people, depending on any bias in tutelage they could again be free thinkers or blinkered in a different way to those less educated. You just need to look at the right wing and left wing MP’s in Parliament to give some sustenance to these thoughts.

  4. Given that the same cohort provides the figures for Westminster and EP VI (and taking account that this is just a snapshot) the difference would give weight to an argument that people consider EP a free hit and allows them to express an opinion on Brexit, whether this will remain the same after a campaign should prove interesting. I would expect the frequency of polls to increase between now and 23 May and will predict a degree of volatility that we have not witnessed before.

  5. Interesting to note how low the highest supported party in the Westminster poll is: 32%. It’s probably going to get lower once the two Brexit parties get going and the longer Brexit takes.

    The EU poll shows how splintered UK politics is at the moment (normally concealed by FPTP). Imagine having the largest party in Westminster with ~160 seats if we had AM.

  6. @WB61

    “…the difference would give weight to an argument that people consider EP a free hit and allows them to express an opinion on Brexit”

    There’s that, plus the fact that the voting system actually means there’s some point to voting for smaller parties who don’t stand a chance of a seat under FPTP.

  7. Brexit Party: does what it says on the tin + good sales rep.

    Trouble for the Tories now.

  8. The Conservatives are I think aiming to do a deal with Labour so as to combine Mrs May’s deal + a customs union & close relationship with the single market.

    If this plan works, and this is by no means certain, it will mean they can get the deal through the House and pull the plug on these European Parliament elections.

    Good insights here into current Tory party thinking:

  9. Prof Howard

    In your article link:

    “Some in government and on the backbenches believe May’s plan is to outline what a deal with Corbyn would look like, then allow Tory MPs one last chance to back her original deal.”

    I’m sure Labour are well aware of this and will probably not come to an agreement with May to stop this in its tracks.

  10. @ PTRP (last thread) – Your dad sounds as defeatist as you. I prefer the Yoda phrase when it comes to Brexit:

    “Do or do not, there is no try”

    Or the Trevor’s versions: “You make your own luck, No Fate but what we make, etc”

    We’ve been over your/others Remainer defeatist view many times – zzz ZZZ. 2mins so again if you must.

    It doesn’t need dramatic change from CON (certainly not a marxist take-over) just an acceptance that they started Brexit and have to finish it (or be finished by it). Everything else can and should flow from that. CON MPs need to be re-elected so had better cotton on quick that they will need to:

    a/ Deliver Brexit
    b/ Make Brexit a success (I’ve never said it would be easy, but with enough focus and effort it can certainly be a lot better than the nonsense of Project Fear2)
    c/ Get on with the perception of other “burning injustices”

    As I’ve said many times, CON have the means and the motive (just lacking the ambition and drive to “do it”)

    I’m glad to see AW note the comparison to 2013 as it feels very similar from a RoC-Leave perspective (or more like nothing has changed in 6yrs for CON).

    The difference going forward is that CON don’t have 2yrs to win a GE, I expect they have 2-3mths – assuming they hope to win it. If they continue with this cowardly slow death approach with May clinging to #10 then they are toast (as the polls show and plenty of RoC folks have been banging on about for ages – you let UKIP back, and newbie BXP as well, then the RoC-Leave vote splits and your out at next GE).

    The only way CON can win the next GE is to embrace Brexit and be the only RoC-Leave party, with the LoC-Remain side split multiple ways.

    I hope they learn from their mistakes and park the Brexit “surrender monkey” approach with May (+Hammond) and dump austerity with them as well.

    CON+UKIP+BXP is over 40%, comfortable majority territory if LoC-Remain vote is split so:

    All to play for

    First of all though you need a team that wants to play, shows up for matches and is led by a decent captain!

    I’ve seen excellent companies destroyed by cr4p management and mediocre companies become extremely successful with great management.

    RoC-Leave has great potential so even mediocre management could make it a success – but defeatist surrender monkeys, stuck in EU-Centric, London-Centric ne0liberalism deserve to be chucked out.

    In that regard if da yoof need to see for themselves that unilateral Socialism doesn’t work then, as I’ve said many times before, I’d rather that happens whilst we’re still in EU. CON can then reform in opposition and we’ll Leave properly later. It would be nicer to leave now rather than have to clean up yet another LAB mess at the same time as leaving later but ho hum, it will be what it will be.

  11. EP Elections x-breaks by EU Ref 2016[1]

    Fair to assume these elections will be fought on Arch-Leave v Arch-Remain grounds (assuming, as seems likely, we’re still stuck with May can kicking and have to run them), so:

    WNV: 19
    BXP: 19
    UKIP: 18
    DK: 17
    CON: 12
    LAB: 7

    AW mentioned the potential for BXP. Although the EP elections are pointless given our MEPs won’t impact the EPP led coalition or choice of next EC president they can send a strong message to CCHQ to kick May out and appoint new “management” who Br-Leave in Brexit.

    So first up is to drop the “abstain” nonsense. No one cares about turnout %, they care about results. Leave voters need to GOTV and back a/the Brexit Party (UKIP are IMHO too toxic and although I don’t want Farage in Westminster, I’m very happy to see him in Brussels – less keen on seeing Tommy Robinson anywhere other than a prison cell – too toxic by far!)

    Second is to avoid the split vote risk although if BXP and UKIP are both polling high then it is less of an issue (especially as Remain side is highly split) [2]

    LAB: 26
    DK: 21
    CON: 11
    LDEM: 10
    Green: 8
    CHUK: 7
    WNV: 7
    NATS: 5

    Note how high LAB Remain vote currently is, the much lower WNV and, once your into LDEM and below, how split the Arch-Remain vote is. The high DK is IMHO most likely to go to the Arch-Remain parties (AW eludes to the potential for CHUK once folks are more aware of them but they’ll have to battle with LDEM, Green and NATS where applicable)

    [1] It would be better if YG showed this x-break by the right/wring to Leave in hindsight but since that shows v.high “loyalty” to Remain/Leave then its probably fairly similar

    [2] The 12 constituencies of UK “boost” larger parties and punish smaller parties (unless they have a specific constituency niche, such as SNP in Scotland or PC in Wales). Discussed this issue before but it is why LDEM only have 1 MEP.

  12. Bantams

    “I’m sure I read recently that people in the mid to late forties category were the most likely to change from Remain to Leave in the event of a second referendum …”

    The conclusion that I’ve seen from several polls is that there have been very few direct switchers from one side to the other since 2016. The overall movement of 5 or 6 points to around 53:47 now has been caused by non-voters and new voters who now say they’d vote Remain.

    In any case, within a poll of (say) 2,000 respondents, and given 10% of Remainers switching to Leave ( which is a little more than in any poll I’ve seen) there would still only be 100 or so people switching Remain>Leave. This is too low a figure to draw any meaningful conclusion about their demographics.

    Perhaps you’re confusing this with the lowest age group in which there is a majority of Leavers: this still appears to be somewhere around age 45-50.

  13. Trevor:

    “I don’t want Farage in Westminster, I’m very happy to see him in Brussels – less keen on seeing Tommy Robinson”

    Good post overall aside from these comments which do violate the Comments Policy.

  14. The DT is in full flow again;

    “This is how Remainers plan to destroy Brexit” – Janet Daley

    “Abandoning no-deal planning proves Brexit was a stitch-up all along” – Owen Paterson

    “Grovelling Britain has officially surrendered to a triumphant EU” – Andrew Lillico

    None of these people have the intelligence or decency to admit that everyting they predicted about Brexit was wrong, but instead have retreated to the last redoubt of the scoundrel and claim that they are the victims of some dreadful conspiracy against democracy. Delusional.

  15. ALEC

    I posted this on the last thread – hope it is of interest

    I have been watching out for the Malthouse appearances. Until now, i have heard Davis and Howard on R4 and Paterson’s column in Brexit Central.

    By the way, is your view of Thatcher at all affected by the great increase in inequalities of income, power and wealth that occurred. Relative poverty rates in the UK increased from 13% in 1961 to 25% . The rate fell gently under Blair to 22% where it remains. The consequent large increases in health inequalities left many with lives prematurely ended and others suffering long periods of disability before death.

    Arguably, one death as a direct result of government policy is unacceptable never mind thousands. Looked at in economic terms, the financial costs to the UK of health inequalities calculated by Frontier Economics for the Marmot Review is £69 billion yearly.

    It might well be that Thatcher’s continuation of the military policies in NI were much more damaging than any other policy. Many innocent lives were lost, the financial costs were enormous and the dirty war was much longer

  16. @ PROFHOWARD – Some good and accurate info in that article but the Halloween extension is great for CON-Leave, no idea who the 1 MP is who thinks it is not.

    I don’t think anyone from LAB or CON expect the Corbyn-May talks to achieve anything. The more LAB support May gets the larger the split risk for both parties (ie there is a massive partisan reason for neither side to compromise – both are already suffering in VI from this issue)

    However, the Corbyn+May talks do kick the can a bit. Timing for CON-Leave “plan”

    LEs – total nightmare for CON (May exit?)
    EPs – huge support for BXP, UKIP and a nightmare for CON (May exit?)

    That’s two major opportunities for her to “resign” in the next month or so.

    After that they’d have to go the far less desirable routes (vote “strikes” concluding with VoNC2 and very damaging for CON if the Leave MPs are the ones forced to abstain to tip the maths – CON VI are a loyal bunch and wouldn’t look kindly on a GE forced by Arch-Leave MPs).

    Leadership election ideally happens over Summer. New leader in place for conf season, load of “tub thumping” stuff, “honeymoon” period, and one final “New WA” / “No WA” offer to EC-EU27. EC-EU27 then say “non-nien” and they take some of the blame as they effectively “kick us out”
    (High risk of GE into/after the final offer)

    If the extension was any longer then a new ref would be possible. 6mths makes that option more difficult (and possibly why Corbyn+May will kick the can for a while?)

    I agree MPs might revoke A50 rather than risk No Deal but the important issue for CON is to make sure it is not a CON PM who revokes A50 – Cooper can rip that authority from new CON leader and revoke A50 as PM for a day in a Remainer Rainbow coalition. We then get a GE with CON able to balme the “betrayal” of 17.4million voters on Cooper+co – not a CON PM.

    We are deep into “least bad” options for sure but one of the least bad is Cooper revokes A50 and CON enter a GE with a new leader and purge of Arch-Remainers like Grieve. Manifesto promise to instantly retrigger A50[1] using the full 2yrs[2] to plan properly for “No WA” from day1. With the opposition parties split on Remain side then CON could realistically win a DUP-free majority.

    [1] Important to note revoke has to be unconditional (ie you can’t tie it to a new ref) but it does not change the Lisbon Treaty right to (re)trigger A50. It would be legally more risky if a CON PM revoked A50 and then a new CON PM retriggered it – much better that someone like Cooper does the initial Revoke.

    [2] Possible risk we don’t get the full 2yrs as EC lawyers fight the initial revoke on grounds that we we’re being “naughty”. However, this means they are kicking us out quicker so the optics work just fine (and IMHO we’d only need 6mths given how far we are with “No WA” plans and mini-deals already)


    I put up a reply to you on the last thread but it has not appeared. Here it is again and I hope it is of interest

    “73% of those who are worried about immigration voted Leave, compared with 36% of those who did not identify this as a concern.
    • 72% of those holding ‘authoritarian’ views voted to leave, compared with 21% of those holding ‘libertarian’ views.
    • Multivariate analysis found that, for the most part, only items associated with people’s sense of national identity and cultural outlook were significantly associated with vote choice.”

    Here is the link


    Re Baby Boxes. 93% uptake (Figure from Talking up Scotland)

  19. Just a bit of fun, it has little to do with reality since this is a very early poll and, more imporantly, there are huge local variations which will work well for PC and SNP…

    …BUT if you take these EP polling numbers and put them into a D’Hondt system (in an English constituency without PC and SNP) and a largish number of MEPS, then:

    The first four MEPs would be LAB/CON/BREX/UKIP

    The next one would be LAB

    Any others beyond the first 5 would be a close run thing between all the 7 parties LAB/CON/BREX/UKIP/LD/GRN/CHUK.

  20. Brian Walker has an article over at Slugger’s place. It refers to an article in The Spectator which is certainly condescending to Ireland. The article provoked a response by the Irish Ambassador. Whether the Ambassador was acting in an official or personal capacity is really the subject of Walker’s piece.

    The first comment to the post usefully identifies flaws in the Spectator piece and lets us see the tone. Here is a bit of the comment and the link.

    “I don’t know if you can call the original article “anti-Irish”, or “hostile”, but it’s as snide, condescending, and ignorant as they come – not quite “shut yer gob and grow up, Leo”, but a similar underlying attitude dressed up in a posher suit. Varadkar just wants a “pat on the head from Macron”? “Little Leo”… sucking up to the “top gang in the EU playground”? All the usual clichés are here: cosy tax deals, the UK “mate’s rate” bailout (that wasn’t): we’re only missing being forced to revote on the Lisbon treaty and it would be a full house.”

    The Irish Times has a good (lengthy) podcast on Brexit. It explores the politics at Westminster, how Brexit might affect Irish politics and how it may affect the EU.

    Brexit Day Blues

  21. Sam,
    ” Multivariate analysis found that, for the most part, only items associated with people’s sense of national identity and cultural outlook were significantly associated with vote choice.””

    i had a look at the link you posted analysing motivation. Only thing is, I cant find a word in it about whether people were motivated by their belief in economic gain or loss from Brexit. They do not appear to have asked this.

  22. @ TRIGGUY – Although it is “early” for polling on EP elections it is worth looking at the 12 constituencies as they have different numbers of MEPs. In England (no NATs)

    Largest is S.E.England 10
    Smallest is N.E England 3

    Then in rUK:
    Scotland: 6
    Wales: 4
    NI: 3

    As you point out (and I’ve mentioned a few times before) the EP system does not suit a large number of small parties all chasing the same vote.

    @ PROFHOWARD – I’m mildly curious if you think your 1:30pm and 3:16pm violate the comments policy?

    I’m not arrogant enough to “mark” the comments of others but FWIW your 1:30pm has factual errors and ignores polling. I assumed is was a bit of “tr0lling” so had a chuckle and moved on to the next comments.

  23. @Trevors – “Some good and accurate info in that article but the Halloween extension is great for CON-Leave, no idea who the 1 MP is who thinks it is not.”

    Always entertaining when you run away from making the hard, imminent predictions, and reappear to post ‘scenarios’ that can never be tested.

    @Sam – ranking PMs is impossible to do without bias, and yes, I did despair of Thatcher’s legacy in all the areas you mentioned. However, I think that in the main, she was honest and competent at managing the affairs of state. To me, a meaningful best/worst PM discussion shouldn’t be some much about whether I agree or disagree with their policies, but more whether they were good at the delivery and mechanics of running a government.

    That’s why I ranked Eden and May as awful, with Brown up there too. Eden l!ed to parliament and the cabinet, making a secret treaty with Israel and catastrophically misreading US intentions through a cavalier, Eton-style over confidence. Blair is an odd one for me to put on this list, as he was OK in the management of government and did many things I largely agreed with, but failed to utilise his opportunities of two huge majorities to make fundamental changes, which along with the Iraq war, erodes his value as a PM. I have him there for the failure to leave a lasting legacy.

    But this is all completely subjective, I accept.

  24. On the question of the greatest and worst Prime Ministers, whatever I think of their policies, I think for sheer competence and the effect they have had on this country, the two greatest have to be Attlee and Thatcher.

    Attlee created a consensus that lasted for over 30 years. Even the Tories accepted the NHS and Nationalisation etc. Even to today, of course, the NHS is generally regarded as the “jewel in the crown” that all parties claim to support and know that saying they would end it would lose them millions of votes.

    As for Thatcher, I loathe and detest practically everything she did, but she was strong enough to change the Attlee consensus to the one that is still generally subscribed to today, though recently the Labour Party have tried to break free of it, gently at first with Milliband and now more robustly with Corbyn.

    I agree with Alec that the other real contender, Blair, wasted his opportunity. A competent manager but really didn’t make any mark in changing the landscape and then there was Iraq….

    MacMillan was a decent old codger and Wilson was very clever and had the guts to stand up to America. Both astute politicians.

    Eden, Home, Callaghan, Cameron and May all incompetent lightweights with May possibly the worst. I thought she reached her level of incompetence with the Home Office, never mind PM.

    I have to admit to having a sneaking regard for Brown. I know many have put him on their worst list, but he was bedevilled by the Banking Crisis, which, I think he was handling much more competently than Cameron and Osborne later did. He was much more highly regarded in this respect outside the country.

    And that leaves Churchill – past it by the time he became a peace time Prime Minister and definitely on the worst post-war list.

  25. I think that ranking prime ministers violates comments policy.

  26. DANNY

    “Meanwhile, there is little sign that the Leave vote was motivated by
    a wish to see greater government intervention in the economy. If
    anything, the opposite was the case. Support for leaving was actually
    rather higher among those who favour “less government regulation
    of business” (55%) than oppose the idea (34%). Equally, support
    was also rather higher among those who favour “cuts in government
    spending” (55%) than among those who are opposed (37%). In
    any event the differences are rather small, while we might note that
    support for leaving was actually higher among those who favour
    “support for declining industries to protect jobs” (50%) than it was
    among those who are opposed (39%)”

    There is more detail which I have not yet looked at in the Technical Appendix. you might, perhaps?

  27. Since this is UK polling report, a short note on the NI council elections. You can usually get a feel for how things are changing by looking at the number of councillors being stood for election. The following are % changes:

    SF +14
    DUP -17
    UUP 0
    SDLP -31
    Alliance +2
    Greens +12
    UKIP -4
    Conservatives – 5

    Broadly: there is a decline in SDLP, increase in SF, increase in centre ground Alliance/Green, and decline in DUP candidates relative to last time.

    A rough indicator of party confidence.

    Figures from

  28. @CB11 @StatGeek

    If you do want to go further back than 2010, for example if the next poll has the Tories on 23%, Mark Pack has a downloadable spreadsheet on his site:

    That goes back to 1943, so enough to satisfy the saddest UKPR contributor, I hope.

  29. @Profhoward – “I think that ranking prime ministers violates comments policy.”

    Quite likley, although imagining Theresa May doing a skanking dub reggae style number is quite entertaining, in a completely cringeworthy fashion.

    Or are we talking about a different kind of rankin’?

    @Norbold – agree entirely re Thatch, and good to see others break free from party lines. I forgot about Churchill though, and I think you are also roght on him too.

  30. Nobody else spotted the new Opinium yet?

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 36% (+1)
    CON: 29% (-6)
    UKIP: 11% (+2)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 09 – 12 Apr Chgs. w/ 29 Mar

    Funny, one month ago or so, we’d have been dismissing this as a freak. Now it seems almost normal. Still maybe a bit of a freak, but who can tell?

    Not sure what happened to other parties in this poll, this is just the Britain Elects tweet, I guess it’s worth trying to find the original.

  31. The discussion below that slugger thread is quite informative. I sense that Alliance, Greens, SF are all confident. SDLP seem to be lacking confidence. DUP probably reducing candidates because they ran too many last time, not because of lack of confidence. Talk of Alliance overtaking SDLP to become third largest party. We shall see.

  32. (Sorry, to become 4th largest not 3rd).

  33. Triguy

    Its an interesting poll – how much the Tories have fallen and UKIP risen.

  34. UKIP have run Carl Benjamin, a YouTuber with quite a large following for the SW constituency. Will be interesting to see how that goes.

  35. @ Triguy
    Only a bit of fun obviously and there will be significant regional variations but doesn’t look that great for pure remain parties outside of the Nats.
    Surprised to see pure Brexit slightly ahead of pure remain but the killer for pure remain is the even split. As I said yesterday “winning here” isn’t relevant to a PR sort of system so no reason to suppose that support coalesces around one of the three pure remain even in a given region.

  36. Of course, the Scots polity crossbreak is the usual small one in the YG poll, but the internal differences between Westminster and (first thoughts on / pre-campaign) European VI seem what one might expect.

    Stability for the consistently pro-EU parties (SNP and SGP both +1 to 49% and 3% respectively : SLD consistent at 7%).

    Significant splintering of the SLab and (especially) SCon VI with SLab -5 to 11% and SCon -10 to 12%.

    The Brexit orientated parties gain : Brexit Party +6 to 8% ; UKIP +4 to 5% ; ChUK to 3% from zero.

  37. ” As I said yesterday “winning here” isn’t relevant to a PR sort of system ”

    Dont you think the dhondt formula mean it is relevant? If Lib Dems are ahead of Change UK, then you always should vote for them, because there are no transferrable votes in this system.

    I would agree with you if it were STV but it is not.

  38. Oldnat does that look like a UKIP loss and LIbDem gain in Scotland?

    I see the sitting UKIP MEP has switched there to the Brexit Party and UKIP-Brexit party splintering will ensure he loses his seat.

  39. Under this system a vote for a small party is wasted so you should go for a larger one. If you are pro-Brexit then you need to work out which of the three (Tory, UKIP, Brexit) has the highest share, if you are pro-remain you need to work out whether Labour/Libdem are ahead in your area. Don’t think it is a good electoral system for small parties and I think Change UK may do very badly in terms of seats. Their very presence also is very bad for Lib Dem even if ChUK win no seats.

    A funny electoral system this.

  40. Prof Howard

    On that kind of vote split, 4 seats would seem fairly predictable – 2 SNP, 1 SCon, 1 SLab.

    The other two seats are most likely a toss up between SLD, Brexit Party, SGP, and a 3rd SNP seat.

    The only loss that seems fairly definite is the 2nd SLab seat – but Catherine Stihler has already resigned her EU seat.

  41. @Sam

    You would think the uptake was 7% if you listened only to the Scottish media / politicians.


    It would have been a nice link, but he’s another of the London-centric set (like most polls’ pathetic othering) that ignores the SNP data. Third party of Parliament for the past 4 years and all that…

  42. @Sam

    You would think the uptake was 7% if you listened only to the Scottish media / politicians.


    It would have been a nice link, but he’s another of the London-centric set (like most polls’ pathetic othering) that ignores the SNP data. Third party of Parliament for the past 4 years and all that…

  43. In Northern Ireland it will be 1DUP 1SF with the third seat either UUP, SDLP or Alliance. Most likely UUP. In previous years one would have predicted SDLP but if Alliance gets more FP than SDLP this time then may mean Alliance picks up SDLP transfers and edges out UUP. But I think most likely is DUP, SF, and UUP.

  44. @Prof Howard

    I have to admit to probably breaking Comments policy. Having just completed a YouGov poll that asked the agree/disagree questions in exactly the way that AW criticised in the last thread, I did post the comment that YouGov should practise what it preached. In my defence, I did make that comment first in the feedback box at the end of the survey with a link to the last thread. I hope that this will not put all my future posts into you know what, but if I disappear from here you will know what happened….

  45. Leftieliberal

    Sounds like you have taken a risk there….

    But hope you don’t get expelled. I’ve not noticed you breaking the policy but will let you know if you do !

  46. @ prof Howard
    Yes except that that poll it is not clear who is ahead especially when you take into account regional variations. You might be able to guess that Lib Dems are stronger in South West but even there you might wonder if Greens have the edge.
    I would assume there won’t be regional polling and even if there was no one would be paying attention. You can’t go on window bills and there won’t be any eve of poll leaflets suggesting canvas returns are neck and neck. Most of all even among people on here you couldn’t guess where your vote is best placed to prevent a particular party getting an extra seat for example a 2nd or 3rd Lab seat or a first Green one.

  47. I think now that the Leaver vote is split, Lab will support a new referendum and unite the Remain vote


  48. SHEVII

    Interesting points. Given that there are so few constituencies it makes sense to have regional polling to allow people to work out how to vote.

    If people were politically engaged enough (and maybe this time they will be) then they should try to understand dHondt and take a look at the share of the vote last time.

    E.g. in the South West constituency looks like the pro-remain people should make sure to avoid splitting three ways between Lib Dems, ChUK, and Green. Hard to coordinate all this so a LibDem winning here sign might help.

    I suspect that people will not understand this and in the SW region ChUK will split the vote and lose the Lib Dems a seat they would otherwise have won.

  49. Opinium EP:

    LAB: 29%
    CON: 17%
    UKIP: 13%
    BREX: 12%
    LDEM: 10%
    GRN: 6%
    CHUK: 4%

    Does suggest Labour could get the DHondt bounce this time.

  50. That opinium was via @OpiniumResearch, 09 – 12 Apr

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