The Sunday papers have the first two voting intention polls conducted since the draft Brexit deal was unveiled:

  • Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 36%(-5), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 8%(+2). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday and changes are from a month ago (tabs)
  • ComRes for the Sunday Express and Sunday Mirror have topline figures of CON 36%(-3), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 7%(+2). Fieldwork was also Wednesday to Thursday, and changes are from late September (tabs)

Both polls show Conservative support dropping and both now show a Labour lead (though ComRes were doing so anyway), both also show an increase in support for UKIP. It is, as ever, just a couple of polls and it’s worth waiting to see if it is reflected in other polling. However, in both cases the fieldwork was also on Wednesday and Thursday, so would have straddled the release of the draft deal and partially taken place before the resignations of Dominic Raab and Esther McVey. In other words, we may not be seeing the full impact of the latest troubles yet… and that’s not to mention what leadership ructions we may see in the week ahead.

(Note there was a Panelbase poll published yesterday, but the fieldwork for this took place at the start of the month, so sheds no light upon any possible impact of the Brexit deal.)


1,107 Responses to “First post-deal voting intention polls from Opinium and ComRes”

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  1. Hireton

    “Since it is the only “plan on the table” it must by definition be the best. Ask a pointless quextion, get a pointless answer.”

    Funny that the only plan on the table could only muster 52%

    Daily Mail are officially supporting May’s deal so not surprising they’ve commissioned a poll to give a positive outcome for the deal.

    We can expect to see May trying to play the public opinion card in the coming weeks.

    It’s fascinating to see a sitting Prime Minister effectively trying to whip up a coup against their own party,

    Never seen the likes of this before, probably never will again.

    Is it just me or did I detect a smidgin of “not really believing it” when May spoke on Sunday about the UK’s best days are yet to come.

    Can’t help thinking that we are witnessing a crucial phase of a country in a terminal state of decline.

  2. @ TONYBTG

    Yes, another set of leading questions commissioned by a group with a vested interest, the People’s Vote outfit are just as culpable in the all the BS flying about. I notice Anthony and Britain Elects have rightly totally ignored all this white noise.

  3. TonyBTG

    “Can’t help thinking that we are witnessing a crucial phase of a country in a terminal state of decline.”

    Perhaps more accurately a country finally recognising that it has long been in a state of decline?

  4. Bantams

    There’s nothing wrong with a newspaper or pressure group commissioning a poll. Indeed, just about all UK political polls are commissioned in this way.

    There is no reason to reject other polls (such as those commissioned by Best For Britain), unless you can demonstrate that the questions are similarly leading.

  5. We are going to end up in Norway. Boxed in now.

  6. JiB

    “We are going to end up in Norway.”

    I told you to take the 1st exit, not the 3rd at that roundabout in Fraserburgh!

  7. @OLDNAT

    Yes. Poor planning, poor results.

    What a mess.

  8. Beneath the headline:

    “Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.”

  9. Davwel

    “Only 31% favouring a Labour government when proper polls have Labour support at 37-40% tells us that this Daily Mail poll is defective.”

    No, it just shows how important the question is.

    Moreover, in this case the question creates an multiple-dependent probability – in nested-decision making model it would probably result in a Tory majority.

    The trouble is that those probabilities would be interrupted by announcing an election, and also by whatever the parties promise, so the best guides and would be the polling figures, however, the parties’ canvassing and policies would have to account for those figures in DM. They are very real (I nice Labour’s stance) p, they just answer a different question.

  10. EOTW,
    “Are there any competent people left?”

    Oddly, yes. Which is why I argue things are not as they seem when politicians say they will ‘respect’ the result. Thats the kind of respect schooldkids give a teacher with his back to them.

    “reading one of Trevors’ post I just think Groundhog Day…. ”

    Its funny, isnt it? I always find a huge disaster entertaining, and we have a really good one! Its that feeling that there is no longer any point worrying, because he worst has already happened. I expect MPs feel the same.

    Passtherockplease,
    “I suspect May went through a massive learning curve”

    So what sort of person do you pick to be home secretary?
    Someone with a cunning plan? The entire nation went through a massive learning curve: after the referendum the government tasked the civil service with discovering the implications of leaving the EU, and the resuts were terrible. So then the tory party created a plan to stop brexit.

    “she basically sais to Junkers and Barnier she intended to pick and choose her menu”

    The whole public record of what has been done tells a narrative that Brexit as billed is impossible and must be reconsidered. Maybe thats an accident, maybe not.

    Hireton,
    “In other news, the UK Government has said it will not comply with the UK Parliament’s Humble Address vote requiring it to divulge its full legal advice on tbe WA.”

    It daren’t. The whole thing would crumble apart. To officially sanction the evidence which has caused the tories to roll back Brexit? how would leavers look upon that?

  11. Survation data tables

    https://t.co/PM0MDF30Td

  12. I’ve been otherwise occupied today, but I’ve tried to keep track of the news. Have I missed something? The prevailing tone on here seems to be that we’re likely to either have yet another referendum or end up staying in the EU.

    It seems that the current deal will be defeated in the Commons, but what then? In my business experience if you try to do a deal with someone and it fails, you then don’t have a deal. It does not mean you will never speak to them again, or not buy or sell to them, just that you won’t have any special arrangements. How is this situation different? Obviously planes will still continue to fly to and from Europe, we will continue to share security information with them and trade with them and we will not run out of drinking water! How could we run out of water, just because certain chemicals to treat it aren’t apparently currently manufactured here? Project Fear 99+! It rains quite a lot in the UK. At worst we would just need to boil water before drinking it. As most water is drunk as tea this wouldn’t be a problem. Also beer and cider would be ok.

  13. @Davwel 37-40% in a voting intention poll is *after* ignoring “don’t know” and “wouldn’t vote”

    Note the 24% “don’t know” on that question – if you ignore them (which is only an approximation), you get ~41% for the Labour government option, which is probably mostly the same people saying they’d vote Labour in the VI polls.

  14. @pete B

    “At worst we would just need to boil water before drinking it. As most water is drunk as tea this wouldn’t be a problem. Also beer and cider would be ok.”

    hmmm – file next to “their will be adequate food” in the “golden visions of brexit” file

  15. Did the Mail poll ask the three way question May’s Deal, No Deal, Remain?

  16. ALEC

    @”Daily Mail readers not always the brightest of the bunch.

    This is the _only_deal on the table.”

    Coming from a regular contributor to UKPR Blog, where a legion of alternative “deals ” are analysed & discussed every day, that is a very amusing remark.

  17. @Passtherockplease –

    “I suspect May went through a massive learning curve”

    Technically this is incorrect.

    If she went ‘through’ a massive learning curve, presumably she would have spun off and crashed through the protection barriers and ended up in a ditch etc – unless this is what you meant?

    ‘May went around a massive learning curve’ would be technically more correct, assuming May is still on track.

    @Pete B – “Have I missed something? The prevailing tone on here seems to be that we’re likely to either have yet another referendum or end up staying in the EU.”

    I think the point is that there are very good reasons to conclude that no deal is no longer a viable option, if it ever was (which it wasn’t).

    The bottom line is that those thinking we could end up with a no deal will need to demonstrate how parliamentary numbers break to form a majority backing no deal, along with generating a PM and set of functioning ministers who could deliver this.

    In simple terms, there just aren’t the numbers.

    On the other side, will the EC stand by and allow a no deal outcome by default? Again, exceedingly unlikely. This is not a great outcome for them, so they would be heavily incentivised to make whatever allowances are required to avoid no deal. With many options remaining open, the very small chance that May would lead us out into a no deal scenario have now all but vanished.

    Leavers used to think that May’s red lines meant something and that the concept of a no deal exit was a genuine possibility, but events have continually proved these views to be illusory. May never had the remotest intention of a no deal, and this was obvious to anyone actually following events of the last two and a half years.

    We are now seeing the end point, which was always going to be a close relationship with the EU, or remain.

    Perversely, probably the only way we could get a no deal exit would be for another public vote to return such an outcome. Parliament certainly won’t deliver it on it’s own.

    Howvere, the hard Brexiters are the ones most against a new public vote, because they still seem to hold to the quaint view that May is ‘one of theirs’.

  18. @Pete B

    “At worst we would just need to boil water before drinking it. As most water is drunk as tea this wouldn’t be a problem. Also beer and cider would be ok.”

    These sort of glib simplistic statements infuriate me.

    @Danny

    “Are there any competent people left?”

    Oddly, yes. Which is why I argue things are not as they seem when politicians say they will ‘respect’ the result. That’s the kind of respect school kids give a teacher with his back to them.

    I am just not buying your conspiracy theories. The expenses scandal made me realise that if the average MP couldn’t even successfully fiddle their expenses, then any other grand conspiracy would be beyond them.

  19. Another nail in the coffin for No Deal?

    “John McDonnell has said a second Brexit referendum “might be an option we seize upon”, admitting for the first time remain should be on the ballot paper and insisting that “no deal” should not.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/28/labour-seize-second-brexit-vote-option-john-mcdonnell

  20. My reading of the tables is that May’s deal would lose any two-option referendum but would most likely win a three-option poll with deal, no deal, remain as the options.

    This is because the deal is the second choice for most people that don’t want it as first choice.

  21. The Survation/mail poll.

    Fairly substantial majority for a second referendum (48%/34%). Remainers for, leavers against.

    21% say they dont know any details of the May deal. The number is biggest amongst the lowest education level, lowest income bracket. Labour has twice as many not knowing the details as conservative.

    37% support the deal, 35% oppose. However, the sample here does not include the 21% who said they dont know what the deal is.

    So adding together the 30% who still dont have a view to the 20% who say they have no knowledge, about 50% of the sample dont really have a view, and the rest divided 1/4 for, 1/4 against.

    This result is also oversampling leavers/conservatives, because fewer of them said they did not know about the deal and therefore were eliminated from the question.

    Asking everyone how MPs should vote on the deal, 40% to vote for, 37% against. I dont know how the indirection in the question might affect the answer, ie its asking how they think MPs should vote on the deal, and people might imagine different final outcomes from the same vote.

    Men modestly for, female modestly against. conservative 3:1 for. Labour slightly against.

    Facinatingly, London is the strongest region in favour of the deal 50%/19%. Scotland and N. Ireland against, midlands for, north against, south against.

    It would appear that remain voting areas favour the deal rather more than leave voting areas. It seems to be a compromise appealing a lot more to remainers than leavers. If there has to be a Brexit, then this is the sort of brexit appealing to remainers rather than leavers.

    Since remainers dont actually want to leave at all, and the leavers are still discontent, does this actually please anyone?

    If the deal is voted down, conservatives believe the EU would not offer better terms (34/51). labour think they would (46/40). Of course, do the two groups agree on what would be better terms? I suspect remainers would want a more remainish outcome, and leavers more leavish, so it is possible both groups are in agreement!

    Remaining is more popular than leaving either deal or no deal.

    No deal is more popular than deal if it is a choice of Brexits. On this one, the conservatives have an 8% lead for the deal, but labour have a 19% lead for no deal. That seems a bit perverse considering the finding above, that remainers like the deal more than leavers. But this question compares the two brexits, so presupposes there cannot be a remain

    Maybe the contradictions suggest there is a lot of indirection, and the final outcomes people have in mind are very different from their immediate choice.

  22. EOTW,

    A bit more of that John McDonnell quote reveals his strategy:

    “If we can’t get a general election, people’s vote is on the table and that might be an option we seize upon,” he said.

    Before that, the party would also offer their own versions of a deal, he said. “We’ll have to go through that sequence to show we’re doing everything we can,” he said.

  23. EOTW,
    “The expenses scandal made me realise that if the average MP couldn’t even successfully fiddle their expenses,”

    MPs did not fiddle their expenses. They were told by their seniors that they should bill to the maximum in lieu of pay, so they did. They were also told the returns would be secret.

    Yes, it was a fraud against voters, but the fraud was pretending their pay was lower than it was. MPs honestly followed the instructions they were given.

    In a way, this is exactly an example of how MPs are willing to tell the voters one thing, while carrying out the opposite policy in secret.

  24. CIM @ 7.34 am

    Yours is a fair comment and a partial explanation.

    But I see that the question had just two choices and only one that respondents could choose, so it was very misleading.

    Quite a number of folk will both favour accepting May`s deal and wanting a Labour government, and will have a had a dilemma in answering. Some will have opted for “Don`t Know” despite having definite views.

  25. “At worst we would just need to boil water before drinking it.”

    ——-

    Something else that wasn’t mentioned during the campaign. Obviously we need a rerun. Nor have we been polled on it. So we don’t really know if people are prepared to boil their water in order to stop our young people benefitting from free movement.

  26. No Deal is ahead of the government’s deal and only 10% behind Remain in the Survation poll. So I very much doubt that it would be on any second referendum ballot!

    However, that would threaten the democratic legitimacy of a second referendum, especially if there’s a widespread boycott. 98% for Remain out of a 45% turnout would solve nothing, in the same way that the 1970s NI Border Poll solved nothing.

  27. @ PTRP – “Who is going to take the EU to court and say they have to give us a deal.”

    Alternatively “Who is going to take the UK to court and say we have to give the EU the money?”

    IMHO it’s “May-EC deal” or “No Deal” at this point. I expect HoC will try to send her back once-twice but that just kicks the can. I seriously doubt EC-EU27 will offer her anything “better” – it might shift a few votes but not enough. Some think this is all “stage managed” and EC-EU27 have already pre-agreed some minor concessions to offer May for a round #2/3 vote – possibly but then why is making such a big deal about ending FoM?!? Even if the EC-EU27 did (at 13-14Dec Council meeting) I can’t see it overturning the current maths in HoC but I’m not ruling it out. As it stands:

    LAB + SNP + others + PeoplesVote form a “blocking majority” for current deal and any other deal EC-EU27 might offer in the time left.

    Hammond (and Carney later today) are doing a great job shoring up the Remain side of the “No Deal” vote. Most Leavers don’t care for ProjectFear and those that do will (e.g. me) will look at May’s Deal v Clean Deals and see the dodgy assumptions used.

    On the other side the case for “No Deal” is better than a bad deal is given in more detail here – note the money part and the other areas that EC-EU27 are very unlikely to agree to (99.9% certain on that!)

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/five-ex-cabinet-ministers-warn-pm-shes-heading-for-no-deal-brexit-duncan-smith-rees-mogg_uk_5bfe3ce2e4b0f43bf2664277

    Everyone will blame ERG of course but PeoplesVote MPs are also voting for “No Deal”.

    My concern has always been “strongly mitigating” that scenario. After the Mayb0tch GE the “No Deal” scenario was the most likely outcome (Kudos to TOH)

    Remain should be the ones concerned about Groundhog days. 29Mar’19 is a fixed date written in UK and, via A50, EU law.

  28. TonyBTG – 10.54 p.m.

    “Can’t help thinking that we are witnessing a crucial phase of a country in a terminal state of decline.”

    I have wondered for a while now about the true motives of Theresa May. I suspect she has deliberately tried to snooker her own party members, and outwit the Official Opposition, though with what success is yet to be determined; however, I suspect she really does understand the reality of what the UK will be outwith the EU – a country with diminishing economic and political power in the world.

    I believe that, in world terms, the UK is now no more powerful than was England under Henry VIII – and is fast returning to a status (in world terms) last seen under Henry VII.

    And by this I mean that the real world economic powers – USA, China, Japan, EU – and military powers – USA China, Russia – will increasingly disregard anything the UK says. Let’s face it: when the United Arab Emirates thinks (in this case mistakenly – but for how long?) that it can do what it likes, where are we?

  29. @ ALEC – I’m not happy with the “Default” Brexit but I’ve accepted it.

    You need to make your case, whatever it is, to EC-EU27 and around 100 UK MPs fast! Remain need to end “Groundhog days” – we don’t live on Planet Remain where wishful thinking gets you the outcome you want. In the Real World “Time stops for no one”. Anyway,

    Hammond has already said we’ll need an “emergency budget” for “No Deal” (although that won’t be Osborne’s “punishment” budget and it might not be Hammond as CoE by then!)

    Carney will respond and the markets will respond.

    I hope HMG do more and still hope CON as a party understand their survival hinges on doing more but we’ll have to wait and see how that pans out. I expect we’ll end up paying a chunk of the 39bn and possibly even more but that is not how it will be spun – all politicians are “economic” with the truth and voters only hear what they want to hear!

    It is increasingly looking like PeoplesVote MPs have formed an “unholy” alliance with ERG to pursue a “No Deal” outcome. I thought the numbers would be closer but its getting close to a 200 majority for “No Deal” at the moment (round #1 at least). “Mini-deals” to soften “No Deal” are TBA and I doubt 13-14Dec EU Council meeting will see them “blink”, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    The only other thing I’d like to see is Corbyn fully backing PeoplesVote and the full BrINO/Remain option (later on CON can bring up the Same v Worse terms issue of Remain v Rejoin). For now we need him in the box before we lock him into it – SNP 2015 shows the extreme example of a divided opposition ;)

  30. Pete B – 2.18 a.m.
    “Obviously planes will still continue to fly to and from Europe,”

    Not necessarily. International air traffic is dependent on international agreements, as is international travel by passengers. If we crash out of the EU, then we may also crash out of the EU’s international air traffic agreements, and, though I would obviously bow to superior knowledge on the subject, it seems to me that this is just one of many unknowns regarding what happens towards the end of March next year.

    Mrs. B and I are booked to go to Majorca at the end of next March to see a friend who lives there. Perhaps we ought to book a flight a few days earlier, so as to be sure of getting there (less concerned about getting back, of course!) :-)

  31. @DAVWEL

    “Quite a number of folk will both favour accepting May`s deal and wanting a Labour government”

    Yes, I am one of them; a strong Remainer but we voted to come out so a good compromise for me would be accepting May’s deal and Labour negotiating the new trade deal on the basis of staying in the CU and protecting labour and environmental standards.

  32. Keen to hear a PeoplesVote person summarise the PeoplesVote section in Suravtion poll – Q7-13.

    Folks starting to see the issue of 3 options?
    (hint they have to split the info you need out over Q7-13!)

    Good luck getting HoC to pick which question to ask, even should you get to an “enabling” majority for asking a question (or should you know the question you’d ask before you ask the question about whether you should ask?!?) and should you be sure you can revoke first and should HoC debate that first to enable “informed consent” ?!? perhaps HoC should vote on extend first to ensure enough time but that will need unanimous consent from EU27 (and shutting down legal challenges) first??)

    Confusing issues for a confused HoC!

    May’s best hope is killing the PeoplesVote but I very much doubt she’ll convince enough MPs. Could a new CON leader convince the 8 CON MPs and get DUP back on side though ?!? TBA ;)

  33. What strange times.

    A UK PM tours the country , trying to persuade The People of the virtues of a Brexit Deal which Parliament shows every sign of rejecting.

    Judging by the movement in Polling , who can say that her objective is failing ?:-

    ” From what you have seen or heard, do you support or oppose the UK Government’s Agreement ”
    Survation Poll 27 November 2018
    ( changes- since 15 November 2018)

    Support 37% ( +10)
    Oppose 35 ( -14)
    Neither 28 ( +8)

    a 24 %pts movement from Oppose to Support in 12 days.
    The movement by Demographic was :-
    Con +26
    Lab+31
    Leave +20
    Remain +36

    If TM maintains this apparent momentum & can tell the Commons on December 11th that “The People” support her-will MPs listen?

    And if they don’t , what effect will that have on VI-and for which Parties?

  34. Good morning all from a mild and grey Central London.

    I’ve not read much into May’s Brexit deal, been too busy online Christmas shopping, but as long as it puts the brakes (and I’m talking ABS Brembo Brakes stuff here) on this free for all mass shuffling of migrants coming from Timbuktu to Gda?sk into the UK then it gets my vote.

    Trump harps on about a caravan of people charging towards the USA…Jesus Christ Hail Mary of Nazareth for the past 5 years we’ve had entire continents rampaging towards us from all directions.

    Controlled immigration…less EU bureaucracy….. fair and proper fishing rights for our baggy minnows then it’s a thumbs up from me.

    And please….Something really has to be done about the incredible wailing from prominent remainers. It would turn the hardest earwax into vape.

  35. TW

    @”Good luck getting HoC to pick which question to ask, ”

    Yes !

    It will have to be questions plural for the vote to mean anything.

    I’m sure they will have fun wittling all the candidates down to something acceptable for the Electoral Commission:-

    * Just Leave with no Agreement & no Transition Period &Don’t Pay them anything.
    * Just Leave with no Transition Period.after agreeing one or two things-and dont pay them anything.
    *Just Leave with no Transition Period after agreeing one or two things-and pay them something
    * Ask them if we can join EFTA & have the time to transition to it.
    * Ask them if we can negotiate a Canada style FTA & have the time in transition to do so.
    * Ask them if the existing PD can be changed to replace FT on Goods & Mutual recognition on Services ; with continued membership of the Customs Union.-and what the financial terms would be.
    * Ask them if the existing PD can be changed to replace FT on Goods & Mutual recognition on Services ; with continued membership of the Customs Union & Single Market .-and what the financial terms would be.
    * Ask them if we can revoke A50 Application and stay -with existing terms including UK’s Rebate.
    * Ask them if we can revoke A50 Application and stay-on any terms they specify.

  36. TREVOR WARNE

    That #peoplesvote is some loony idea coughed up by the arty farty brigade. They spend most of the day sat hunched in front of a drawing board in disused railway arches grooming each others dreadlocks.

    They are only good for two things…Gentrification and pushing up the prices of brownfield sites.

    Blah…They make me sick.

  37. @john bremner

    Re aviation, it’s also safety certification, corporate. insurance etc.

  38. “Alternatively “Who is going to take the UK to court and say we have to give the EU the money?” ”

    Ummm…the EU would.

    Doh!

  39. @Trevors – “You need to make your case, whatever it is, to EC-EU27 and around 100 UK MPs fast! Remain need to end “Groundhog days” – we don’t live on Planet Remain where wishful thinking gets you the outcome you want. In the Real World “Time stops for no one”. ”

    I don’t need to do anything, thanks very much – it’s already done and dusted.

    At every point throughout this saga since the referendum, you and others have continually promoted the option of a no deal exit as a live, viable option, when it has been absolutely apparent that it never was remotely possible.

    We even now have Theresa May – someone who @TOH thought was so hard in Brexit terms he joined the Tory party for the first time ever – warning her MPs that voting down the deal risked no Brexit whatsoever.

    @R&D, myself and many others have been shown to be completely correct in that May called the 2017 GE to seek a bigger majority to face down hard Brexiters, whatever her manifesto claimed, and now the ERG can’t even mount a leadership challenge.

    Hard Brexit as a potential option has collapsed in the last few days, with everything moving against it, and I think you need to start to move on to the real options that now remain.

  40. The CJEU will give its decision on the A50 case on 4 December.

  41. Pete B,
    ” At worst we would just need to boil water before drinking it.”

    Seriously? Can you imagine the reaction if Brexit means…having to boil our water?

    John Bremner
    “I believe that, in world terms, the UK is now no more powerful than was England under Henry VIII – and is fast returning to a status (in world terms) last seen under Henry VII. ”

    Boadicea anyone?

    The Trevors,
    “Keen to hear a PeoplesVote person summarise the PeoplesVote section in Suravtion poll – Q7-13.”

    See my 9:21 post.
    There seem to be some contradictions in the results, which are probably to do with details of the questions. The earlier questions suggest that remainers do not want to leave the eu, but prefer the may deal to no deal. Leavers really do not like the May deal. So paradoxically, its support is from remainers, who dont want to leave at all.

    The political implication of the deal, therefore, is that it will upset everyone if it happens, whether they prefer it or not.

    The interesting question is what would happen if the politicians place remain back on the table as a serious option, instead of telling everyone it isnt.

    Allan Christie,
    ” it puts the brakes (and I’m talking ABS Brembo Brakes stuff here) on this free for all mass shuffling of migrants coming from Timbuktu to Gda?sk into the UK then it gets my vote.”

    But it will not. To seriously do that, politicians first need to admit that they have been encouraging immigration, explain why, and then address what they will do as an alternative straregy to meet UK labour needs. They have yet to do this, so I would assume we will continue welcoming immigrants, whatever happens.

  42. This is incredibly quick by ECJ standards. The non-binding (but influential) opinion of the Advocate General on the revocability of Article 50 will be published on December 4th, a week before the meaningful vote in parliament. Full ECJ judgement will come later. (BBC)

  43. Hireton

    Not the whole ECJ. The statement by the Advocate General is, however, likely to be consistent with the minds of other judges.

    The actual preliminary ruling will need to wait until the legal bases for whatever they decide have been written up. That will take a wee while to do,

  44. @ALEC

    “Hard Brexit as a potential option has collapsed in the last few days, with everything moving against it, and I think you need to start to move on to the real options that now remain.”

    Agreed. It was obvious from the lack of support for the ERG coup that a Hard Brexit is just too big a risk for many middle of the road Tory MPs.

  45. Alec,
    ” myself and many others have been shown to be completely correct in that May called the 2017 GE to seek a bigger majority to face down hard Brexiters, whatever her manifesto claimed”

    I really do not agree. had she won with something like a 50 majority, the relative numbers would still have been comparable. The Trevors are talking about defeat by 200.

    Mostly, I think that had voters endorsed her manifesto policy of hard brexit, it would have been impossible to avoid accusations of breaking faith with leave voters if the party then pushed a soft leave such as the may deal.

    I’d suggest that hard brexiteers went along with calling an election because they saw it as the only route whereby hard leave might actually happen.

    I can imagine that in discussions beforehand, it was agreed by all that if they got good support, all would support hard brexit, but if bad support, then the party would work towards remain. Which is what we have seen.

  46. @ALEC

    I think that the problem that May had with respect to understanding the issues at large were made clear at that fateful dinner with Junkers and Barnier which was leaked. I pointedly showed that both Davis and May had no idea what they were in for and that their plan seemed to break at first contact.

    The point of the GE2017 was that the perception was that given the choice of Corbyn a leftist commie even worse than Red Ed and May was a no brainer. Having a huge majority would have made what ever deal she wanted to pursue easier it was never clear she was going to pursue a softer brexit since her red lines said not.

    The simple problem is that she managed to get all the leavers to join her party and vote for it so the real problem she had was that she had little room for manoeuvre when reality started to bite.

    The red lines meant that we were going to be offered a FTA of a similar kind to that of Canada. Something that fell short of expectations and what our economy needs.

    My view has always been we would not have a deal and we will crash out because there is not enough MP that want to agree to something that essentially does not have enough public support. Just imagine going up against someone who had not voted for this having voted for it. The best you have is that it is as good a deal as we could get. That is not selling it.

    What I don’t know is that May would cave in so badly over stuff just to get to the finish line. That did surprise me the one thing she has going for her is that on the Tory side there is no one that would be seen as an improvement outside narrow Tory circles. May’s other positive is that she is up against Corbyn who basically disappears from view

    I suspect that the Tories have no choice but to have May in place until 2022 since in truth getting to Brexit Day is the easy bit. The reality of what Brexit means happens after this just in time for 2022.

    You could argue she went through the barriers but it really is immaterial. DANNY’s hypothesis is that people knew what they were doing. Mine is that they really did believe their own bullsh1t and there was a lack of planning and thinking but a lot of hubris.

    @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I think you find that the UK controls the majority of it immigration. it always has. Indeed we still are importing people at over 330K per year it is just that composition has changed. there are even more from the non EU countries at the moment. Javid does not know what immigration policy we will have it seems that we (UK citizens will not have FoM but EU citizens after Brexit Day will)

    Our problem with Fishing started because we sold our quotas to foreign fishing firms because that is what we seem to do. No other country did this. Moreover

    Now you can have a go at Remainers for arguing their case but I suspect rather like our Iraq debacle at some point we will find that the facts on the ground will not meet our original expectations and it will most probably be seen as something that given a second chance at it will not produce the same result and will be consigned to the tried that and got the tee shirt and only shame basically means we deny even being in favour of it.

    Iraq was 15 years ago and no one says that was a good idea yet look at the polls at the time https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/06/03/remembering-iraq. Those against the war were in the minority but were right. Sometimes the wisdom of the crowd does not work.

    I suspect we be saying at least the sky didn’t fall in so it was a success.

  47. I may be missing something here, but isn’t it the case that if Parliament votes against the May deal, that there will then be no deal on the table? So there’d be no point in putting that option in a referendum.

    EU27 has said that in that situation, there can be no further substantive negotiations. It’s take it or leave, basically.

    So, unless Parliament is to be ignored, the two options left are revoke and remain (assuming CJEU ruling favourable); or leave with no deal (or, more likely, a flurry of quick-fix deals on practicalities to mitigate disaster).

    So what’s wrong with a remain/no deal referendum at that point?

  48. @ COLIN – I fully agree with you that the people, notably CON VI, are coming around to May’s deal. YG’s two polls showed similar. Possibly as much fear of the alternatives than actually liking it? However:

    “If TM maintains this apparent momentum & can tell the Commons on December 11th that “The People” support her-will MPs listen?”

    Sadly, I have to say “no” (or at least nowhere near enough).

    The list of CON MPs who have said they’ll vote against the deal is now up 99.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/here-are-all-the-tory-mps-who-have-indicated-so-far-that

    May’s deal’s only hope is to
    1/ kill of the PeoplesVote
    2/ win over Corbyn
    3/ hope she is still PM for round 2/3 through HoC

    and she’ll need all of the above!

    HMT (and Hammond) have made it harder for her. As expected they’ve “Weaponised” the Economic analysis and “Remain” folks can rip her deal apart as it takes a hugely optimistic view on the future deal where as “Clean” Brexit folks can rip the assumptions apart, specifically:

    – the bonkers NTBs levels
    – the even more absurd assumption that “exiting” 100% alignment generates loses equiv to “entering” x 85%
    – the 0.1% gain from “regulatory change”
    – the tiny gain from non-EU trade deals (which are same for her deal and no deal!)
    – section 2.6 (what they haven’t modelled, which even ignores HMG “No Deal” plans), although this is actually a good thing for a future CON PM and CoE

    and that is just from the first sweep (although I went for the obvious and big stuff first before this quick lunch break)

    It’s very close to the Jan’18 forecasts on “No Deal”, “FTA”, “EEA” – almost as if they wrote it in Feb!!

    @ ALEC – Look up “rhetorical” in a dictionary – Doh!

  49. @ DANNY – “The Trevors are talking about defeat by 200”

    Not just me, the Guardian, Buzzfeed and plenty of other sources running the numbers (and I assume CON whips office are as well). Guardian have the best version.

    Currently they have it as 414 v 225 (lose by 189) but 4 CON MPs they have as “unconfirmed”, and hence assumed to back May, have said they vote against so that gets you to 418 v 221 (lose by 197), close to 200!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/26/how-will-your-mp-vote-on-theresa-mays-brexit-deal

    The problem for May is in a close vote the “whips” can work their tricks but if every MP knows their vote won’t be the deciding factor then the “power” of the whips has less effect.

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