Voting intention polls over the last fortnight have been showing the same pattern that we’ve become used to over the last four month: Conservative and Labour very close to each other in support, with the Tories averaging a very small lead.

Survation/GMB (20th June) – CON 41, LAB 38, LDEM 7
ICM/Guardian (24th June) – CON 41, LAB 40, LDEM 9
YouGov/Times (26th June) – CON 42, LAB 37, LDEM 9
Ipsos MORI (27th June) – CON 41, LAB 38, LDEM 9
YouGov/Times (4th July) – CON 41, LAB 40, LDEM 9
AVERAGE – CON 41, LAB 39, LDEM 9

There’s a fresh Survation poll in today’s Mail on Sunday, with fieldwork conducted wholly on Saturday, after the Chequers summit. Topline figures there are CON 38%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 10%(+3). While Survation typically show Labour in a better polling position than other companies do, this is still the first Survation poll to show Labour ahead since March. On the other hand, it is well within the normal margin of error (Survation’s polls over the last four months have averaged at CON 41, LAB 40). I will leave it with my normal caveats about reading too much into polls after events – they have the same sample variation as any other poll, so don’t assume that any change is a result of the event, rather than just noise. Wait and see if other polls show a similar pattern of change.

In the meantime, is there anything polling can tell us about how the Brexit deal will impact public attitudes? Our starting point, as is so often the case, should be to recall how little attention most people pay towards the intricacies of the Brexit negoatiations. Most people are not glued to the ins- and outs- of it, don’t know or care about the specifics of court juristrictions and trade regulations. The Brexit deal will, in all likelihood, be judged upon broad brush preceptions. Do people think it is a good deal for Britain? Do people think it is a genuine Brexit?

On those two measures, the Survation poll gave people a brief summary of the deal and asked people if they approved – 33% did, 22% did not, 35% neither approved nor disapproved and 10% did not know. Balance of opinion amongst remainers and leavers was positive, though it went down better among Remainers (for Leave the break was 30% approve, 25% disapprove; for Remain the break was 39% approve, 25% disapprove). The response was less positive when they asked if it was faithful to the referendum result – 29% thought it was, 38% thought it was not, 34% said don’t know. Overall, 26% said it was the right deal, 42% that it was the wrong deal, 32% didn’t know.

That’s clearly a mixed response – the balance of public opinion approves of it, but doesn’t think it respects the result and doesn’t think it’s the right deal. And on all those measures an awful lot of people said don’t know. I expect that’s largely because people have been asked about something they weren’t paying much attention to and didn’t have much of an opinion on it yet (it cannot be easy to get a sample within a space of a few hours at the best of times. When England are playing a World Cup Quarter final at the same point…).

The question is how they will make that decision. For obvious reasons most people will not have spent their Saturday poring over the government press release from the Chequers summit, nor will they read the White Paper this week! It will depend how the papers react to it, how the broadcast media report it, how politicians people recognise like the party leaders, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and so on react to it.

The wise thing to do now is to wait and see if there is any lasting movement in the polls, or whether (in public opinion terms) this is just another one of those arguments about the fine details of Brexit that the public seem to be largely tuning out of.

(Note that – despite what it appears to show on my sidebar to the right – UKIP were NOT on zero percent in the latest Survation poll. The poll didn’t ask people who said they’ve vote “other” which other party they would vote for, so it’s impossible to tell UKIP support from the poll.)


396 Responses to “Latest Voting Intention and the Chequers Summit”

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  1. It was worth making him FS, but only to make him resign.

  2. et tu Bozza!

  3. As a British patriot I say good riddance to Boris.

    The biggest embarrassment I have ever know as Foreign Secretary

  4. Surely he doesn’t think he can win a leadership challenge?

  5. Fox has just called his Permanent Secretary and SPAD’s into his office.

  6. Fox has allegedly just called in his Permanent Secretary and special advisers so looks highly likely.

  7. Andrew11,

    I posted this before but worth repeating.

    My dad is 81 and lived under many Foreign Secretaries of both main parties (must be 20+) and he says that this is the first time in his life he has embarrassed by the person representing us abroad.

  8. Fox on front bench, maybe he has been offered FS?

  9. Colin

    Raab is not somebody I have any real knowledge of from speaking to my U.K. friends a little while ago it seems he’s well thought of.
    There seems to be a feeling of relief that Boris has gone not just over brexit but his tenancy of the Foreign Office has been a disaster.
    As I said earlier today I suspect Mays wing of the Tory party will be highly delighted to lose both Davis and Boris I certainly doubt there will be a serious leadership bid far to close to brexit date line as any leadership challenge would take 3 months.
    It’s certainly tough times for the government but as I’ve said May is a good deal tougher and more Machiavellian than she appears.

  10. Kuenssberg reports;

    “Johnson’s drivers leave without him – he ll lose his security detail and them – no sign of him yet”

    No Security…Will the Public be safe????

    Peter.

  11. Clear now why the Tories spent so long kicking the can down the road. It was all about delaying this moment…

  12. Not sure what if anything this tells us, but the pound rose on news that Davis had quit and has fallen with departure of Boris.

    Could be that the Markets thought that with Davis gone we’ed get a soft Brexit and that with Boris going…

    He could be the next PM!!!!

    Peter.

  13. Turk

    I am not surprised your friends think well of Raab who said a little while ago, “The typical food bank user is not in poverty – they just have a cash flow problem.”

  14. How plausible is this…?

    Tory Leadership challenge
    Boris wins on “no deal” platform
    (at this point, the only plausible positions seem to be either an indefinite transition period or no deal)
    The DUP withdraw from their deal since no deal will be a (particular) disaster for NI
    no confidence vote triggers general election (Corbyn can’t get a vote passed)
    hung parliament

    After that, I have no idea what happens.

  15. One resignation away from the government falling now- Gareth Southgate’s with him citing incompatible differences with May.

    To be honest I think (famous last words) that May is safe- I can’t see there being enough hard Brexit Tories to force her out even if they do get the 48 names. This is both on loyalty factors (and dislike of the one’s who haven’t been loyal) and also on policy grounds.

    As @ Alec says I think the next few opinion polls will be very interesting how- especially given it is just saying something in a poll and not a vote. How many hard Brexit Tory voters will just put down UKIP when they are asked the question?

  16. Robin,

    Boris for PM is unlikely but I think core Tory voters would want and members would vote for the strongest Brexiteer of the last two.

    As for the DUP, they have nowhere to run too and besides there supporters will probably stick with them even if Brexit hurts because most would rather be in a poorer Britain than a richer Ireland.

    The fall of May is still long odds but the fall of the Government and an election even less likely.

    So the reign of the shambling dead is likely to continue…

    I think the film will be called 28 Months Later.

    feel three to post your script ideas!

    Peter.

  17. SHEVII,

    ” I can’t see there being enough hard Brexit Tories to force her out even if they do get the 48 names.”

    True, but if she looks like a liability with little credibility more might think things will just get worse so it might be best to push her now.

    I haven’t been listening but from the resignation feed on the BBC web page, she seems to be delivering another leaden performance while Corbyn mocks her to cheers.

    A lot rests on the credibility of her successor, will they be better or worse.

    But sitting on the back benches a lot of MP’s Remain and Leave right now might be thinking;

    “This Women is Going to Cost Me My Seat!”

    Peter.

  18. Tory turmoil!

    Consensus? What a load of tripe. Anybody who’s believed a word to come out of this government (and indeed the opposition) over the last two years needs their head looking at.

    At least a decision is slowly being arrived at: Tory-delivered BINO is heading out the window, so we either have no deal and economic meltdown, which will finish off the Tory party as a serious party, or revoke and remain, which will finish off the Tory party as a serious party.

    Happy days.

  19. Norbold

    Most of my friends in the UK are farmers many of whom contribute fresh food to food banks as I did.
    As you do not know me or my friends please don’t make judgments based on your own prejudices.

  20. Slightly upset DD is gone, less so Boris. As COLIN points out Raab is a good switch (for the 52%) although it was a nervous few hours as rumours of Lidington or May desolving the position circulated.

    You have to assume, based on form, that Boris will be replaced by a Leaver.

    I had thought May might survive until after the Summer but perhaps not. I do hope they don’t push a leadership challenge until AFTER Barnier has commented on the White Paper (although he must be aware of the consequences of his comments – not that I expect he cares though!)

    @ ROGER – The poll does show Javid and SMogg look the most likely (assuming one of them gets to the final two). Different wording etc to Survation but Javid is more believable in this poll.

    Javid +36
    SMogg +26
    (no idea why they keep putting Ruth in as a contender?)

    More interesting is the order preference rankings.

    SMogg gets the highest 1st place pick (29) but also a very high number as last place pick (15).
    Javid, as you’d expect, is seen as more of a compromise (only 17% pick him as 1st pick but only 8% pick him as last place pick).

    Javid also gets highest for likely to win a GE (net +39), SMogg only +13.

    Javid and SMogg both beat all other contenders by fairly decent margins. Pair 14 places Javid up against SMogg and it’s very close. SMogg 51, Javid 49.

    SMogg as PM and Javid as CoE would be a “dream team” – if both campaigned hard (ie showed up!) then good chance CON can win a majority (assuming Remain vote split). I still think a fresh face, long shot might be in with a chance if lots of candidates stand and the bigger beasts get knocked out early. I like SMogg and Javid but both have a bit of baggage and with Javid I don’t think he has the charisma to win a majority in a GE – perfect CoE (or stay as H.Sec).

    Good to see Williamson so low IMHO – awful creature.

    Also folks might note that YG didn’t have any Remainers in the mix (excluding Ruth who isn’t going to run). It’s not an omission, there are simply no Remainers who would stand a chance.

    @ ROBIN – Boris is unlikely but someone on a “no deal” ticket, yes. (see the poll ROGER posted)
    IMHO the DUP want a hard Brexit but need to blame someone else. They also absolutely detest Corbyn. NI trade with RoI is tiny but the unilateral open border will mean new CON PM has a workable backstop (temporary granted). I can see them abstain but never support Corbyn.
    Would CON-Remain MPs back Corbyn in a confidence vote if someone like SMogg became PM? We might find out soon enough. At which point it is GE time!
    (My guess is this is why Javid scores higher than SMogg, a lot of CON VI/members still want May to limp on rather than risk a change that might lead to a GE – I’m not one of those – IMHO only a larger majority will ensure we have a united HMG to tackle the huge challenges ahead if we end up with “no deal”).

  21. @Robin – “How plausible is this…?…”

    No idea, but we might be about to find out.

    BBC and C4 both reporting further resignations expected, and that No 10 is anticipating a leadership challenge.

  22. If JRM became PM can any one see him uniting the party behind his preferred brexit policy or see him compromising his long stated opinion on the form of Brexit he wants

    I really can’t, not a JRM fan but one thing to his credit is that he has so far kept to his oft stated position on Brexit. I do not think he will bend one inch to get enough M.P.’s on board

  23. Turk,

    “As you do not know me or my friends please don’t make judgments based on your own prejudices.”

    He didn’t, he past judgement on people who think well of someone who has prejudices.

    If people think Rabb, is smart and up to the job, that’s fine, if they think his comments about the poor are okay, that’s something different and I suppose Norbold might not have been clear which you might.

    On the other hand many of the Victorian “Great & Good” supported Work Houses, but that made them no less inhumane!

    I’d like a competent with compassion, and to be honest I an mot sure which Is worse?

    Someone who believes in the right think but can’t deliver or someone who effectively delivers the wrong thing.

    I suppose you could look at Davis as someone who either couldn’t deliver the right think and be glad he’s gone or someone who resigned because he couldn’t deliver the wrong think and worry the next guy might or hope the next guy delivers the right thing.

    Peter.

  24. @ PETER – The markets probably thought DD was either expected or a non-event. Two senior Brexiteers going though is a different matter. IMHO neither will get very far in a leadership contest, even if they entered. Both might want an important post and back someone else (although Boris’s official backing is more likely to hurt than help!).

    Also worth saying the move in the currency was pretty small. Whether the markets aren’t that bothered by Brexit or aren’t sure how to interpret the resignations is tough to say. Usually a political crisis of any description would see that country’s currency sell-off (or Euro if an EU crisis). So it’s probably a case of we’re not at “crisis” yet (but I think we will be soon). Having said that, some “bad news” is surely priced in (not that I would see “no deal” as bad – just saying the currency market probably would,. 5%ish bad as a guess).

  25. TURK

    I have to accept that she is tough-absolutely.

    Just watched the HoC Statement. She silenced JC’s pathetic response & really has had more questioning of the credibility of the Chequers Agreement from her own benches than from Labour’s. Most Labour questions were from EEA and/or Customs Union + SM advocates & she told them in terms why she disagrees.

    Her responses to the Bones & Jenkins were equally categoric . She was in detailed command of the subject; and I got the impression that the critics behind her were just worried that there would be more concessions when Raab takes this to Barnier. She made all the right noises in response-this is the deal-or its WTO.

    So I think the focus will now switch to the response of EU & May’s response to that.

    I hope that common sense prevails & there is no challenge to her from the Party before next March. And in a way the Cabinet should now be more settled & hopefully workmanlike.

    Thereafter , whilst I am more than happy to acknowledge her toughness-winning a GE campaign requires other qualities . I just don’t think she has those.

  26. Of course both Davis and especially Johnson managed to undermine their resignations by signing up to something and then going back on that a few days later. It hardly suggests great principle or that they know what they are doing.

    If May does move Fox to the Foreign Office, it would mean that she would be managing to combine a useless politician with a useless job and he would be happy swanning round the world not doing very much. And even he can’t possibly be as embarrassing as Boris (though I do realise that may be a ‘Hold my beer’ statement).

    There will certainly be the possibility of a leadership challenge, indeed one could happen by accident almost if (as is rumoured) the Chairman of the 1922 already has a number in his safe and a few more on whim might take the total up to 48 and trigger a vote on May among MPs.

  27. @ SHEVII – “How many hard Brexit Tory voters will just put down UKIP when they are asked the question?”

    I hope they do tick the UKIP box – those votes are all “no deal” that would come back to CON but the message that folks (CON VI and potential voters) have had enough of May and her drift towards BINO needs to be heard . However, the LDEM “resurgence” never happened so I’m not getting my hopes up.

    My guess would be a rise in DK’s for CON (we’ve seen this a little with LAB as well as Corbyn still hides in ambiguity over Brexit and some Remain are sensing that he aint coming to the rescue). A rise in DK (or drop in LTV) will drop CON to level/just below LAB perhaps. Provided LAB don’t actually net benefit then not that bothered.

    About the only guess I’d put money on is “Not Sure” (neither) scoring the highest as best PM in the May v Corbyn choice.

  28. ALEC

    I don’t think you understand Putin’s foreign policy strategy-he is trying to rebuild a “monolith”. -The Soviet Union.

    And when he can’t rebuild that influence by force of arms, he will do it “commerciallly.”

    And even here one sees his central tactic every time-divide & rule. Nordstream 2 is a classic example-Germany supports this Trojan Horse-whilst Tusk waves his hands about and says “Now the European Commission is trying to create new energy rules that will help stop the implementation of this project, but I cannot say that at present this process is productive.”

    https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/516878.html

    The EU as a decision making entity is becoming a joke as Member States take unilateral action on the things that matter-Migration, Defence, Energy.

  29. @Colin – “ust watched the HoC Statement. She silenced JC’s pathetic response & really has had more questioning of the credibility of the Chequers Agreement from her own benches than from Labour’s. Most Labour questions were from EEA and/or Customs Union + SM advocates & she told them in terms why she disagrees.

    Her responses to the Bones & Jenkins were equally categoric . She was in detailed command of the subject; and I got the impression that the critics behind her were just worried that there would be more concessions when Raab takes this to Barnier. She made all the right noises in response-this is the deal-or its WTO.”

    Not going to get into a tit for tat analysis of what went on in the HoC, but suffice to say we may have been watching different performances.

    May, in my view, isn’t demonstrating strength at all – stubbornness I could accept, which has some merit in itself, but not strength. She remains fundamentally dishonest, simply giving any questioner on her side of the house whatever answer they want to hear, regardless of what they are asking for. She hasn’t (perhaps understandable) explained to any of them that this is her government’s agreed starting point for a negotiation, which by definition will require further compromise.

    My overriding sense of the commons spectacle was the overwhelming silence on the benches behind her.

  30. Turk

    “Norbold

    Most of my friends in the UK are farmers many of whom contribute fresh food to food banks as I did.
    As you do not know me or my friends please don’t make judgments based on your own prejudices.”

    Good for them. I notice you didn’t take the opportunity to distance yourself from Raab’s statement though.

  31. ALEC

    @” She hasn’t (perhaps understandable) explained to any of them that this is her government’s agreed starting point for a negotiation, which by definition will require further compromise.”

    Actually I did hear her explain that-a number of times.

    And it can hardly be less clear to her that she is very very close to a “compromise too far” for some of her troops.

    I was waiting to hear her response to questions about the freedom to strike TAs in Goods of our own. She said we would have that freedom.

    And her response to ” -you can’t unless the potential trading partner agrees to the standards operating between EU & UK” was that these standards are increasingly recognised internationally.

    She also responded to a question about being trapped in future by EU regs on trade in goods which have changed post Brexit. I didn’t follow the very technical answer-it is clearly a key issue & will no doubt come up when the White Paper goes to HoC

  32. …………hardly be MORE clear to her ….. ! doh !

  33. Norbold

    As far as Raad goes as I said I don’t know him as to his views it’s not necessary for me to agree with every utterance that comes out of the mouth of any politician the people I have spoke to today in the U.K. appear to like him.
    As to people who use food banks no I don’t think there starving nor do I think they’re a bunch of free loaders.
    Do I think people could be more smart in using there limited budgets yes I do. Do I think everybody is capable of managing there budgets no I don’t.
    Sorry if You find that confusing but like I said the problem with your narrow political view of life is you don’t understand it’s possible for a politician to hold a certain view you don’t endorse but still think that politician can do a good job in the field of negotiation of brexit.

  34. @PC
    “I’d like a competent with compassion, and to be honest I an mot sure which Is worse?”

    Peter, you might like this from Warren Buffett .

    “Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.”

  35. from the BBC;

    “BREAKING Theresa May tells MPs Brexit White Paper will be published “next week”. Not this Thursday, as had been planned.”

    Seems our Agreed, Definitive and Final position set before Cabinet on Friday is currently being rewritten.

    You couldn’t make it up…unless it’s a crucial White Paper!

    Peter.

  36. Strong and stable!

    The Tories have just 6 days to safeguard their first World Cup. Will they last?

  37. @Peter Cairns – apparently the delay is all about the colour.

    May originally wanted it to be a White Paper, but they’re now wondering whether something more fudge coloured might be better.

  38. @ NORBOLD – Could you post the full comment, with link to Raab’s comment.

    One interpretation is that he was drawing attention, quite rightly, to the admin c0ck up side of UC. We saw this with Windrush as well and had polling on that!

    With Windrush, a large majority supported the policy of “hostile environment” (the YG poll even used the exact wording). What folks don’t like is admin c0ck ups.

    From the polling I remember, UC was similar. It wssn;t so much the the policy as the implementation: the long delays in sorting individual cases out, resulting in the “cash flow” crisis and need for many people to go to food banks and/or loan sharks (legal or otherwise).

    Of course continued “admin” c0ck ups or other failures on delivery (e.g. apprenticeship levy) are hardly going to help CON VI but IMHO there is a very large difference between a bad policy and bad implementation of a broadly good policy – as polling on these kinds of issues picks up!

    I could also mention 1st World “relative” poverty versus 3rd World “absolute” poverty but I doubt that was what Raab had in mind.

  39. Roger Mexico,
    ” both Davis and especially Johnson managed to undermine their resignations by signing up to something and then going back on that a few days later.”

    Didnt you notice the very well publicised statement that anyone who resigned at chequers would have to walk home?

  40. TURK

    “Sorry if You find that confusing but like I said the problem with your narrow political view of life….”

    Now, who was it who said, ““As you do not know me or my friends please don’t make judgments based on your own prejudices.”?

    Oh yes, I remember now, it was you!

  41. Kuennsberg tweets the speculation that there are 48 letters of loss of confidence in TM as PM with G Brady

  42. So…finally some action. The tories are commencing what might be a big set piece stage show to fight out Brexit…and bring us finally back to remain.

    Its been a long time in prepration, but the EU deadline is drawing close and there will need to be some time left for real negotiations.

    I’d guess they wanted to get the withdrawl bill passed too before the staged fight began.

    But now the actors are leaving their planning briefing at the cabinet and preparing to act out their parts of mock support or opposition to Brexit.

    An interesting question since there is lots of talk about no confidence votes in May. A sensible strategy might be to hold one, May naturally winning but a good chunk of MPs opposing her and going off in a sulk, no longer supporting the government on Brexit. That would allow a sufficient split for labour to be forced to take a position.

    It is imperative for the tories either to stop Brexit, or get labour implicated in the decision. The latter probably being preferable.

  43. LEWBLEW I am no fan of the Tories but they are the masters of reinvention and survival. They will not be finished by Brexit. Far from it.

  44. Boris’s resignation letter is here at 18.10!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-44762836

    Seems he didn’t fancy a semi he wanted a hard one!

    Peter.

  45. Now Boris can go to Heathrow and lie down in front of a bulldozer.
    :)

  46. Good evening all from an incredibly warm and tropical Winchester.

    Big B and David Davis both chucking the cabinet!…This is prime time stuff.

    The government is imploding big time. I’ve not seen an implosion like this since the great hypernova NASA witnessed in a distant galaxy far far away. This is the supernova of the century. It’s a mess of epic and biblical proportions.

    The regime is finished.

    Anyone for a bun?

  47. @Turk

    Raab is capable and works hard. I think you would also approve of his views which are very classically dry Thatcherite.

    Tbh if you are a Brexiter he represents a considerable upgrade on Davis.

    It is inevitable that the new For Sec will be an upgrade on Johnson as well (unless May takes leave of her senses and appoints Leadsom or something), if not in latent ability, certainly on character.

    Were I a Brexiter interested in results and a well-executed and painless Brexit that satisfies the maximum number of people, I would look back on today after a period of reflection as a good one. I suspect that once it has shaken out the electorate’s verdict will be positive.

  48. @David Colby

    “Now Boris can go to Heathrow and lie down in front of a bulldozer.”

    Run a lottery with the prize being to drive the bulldozer and we could clear the national debt in a week.

  49. DAVID COLBY
    “Now Boris can go to Heathrow and lie down in front of a bulldozer.
    :)”
    ______________

    Yeah well I don’t hold out much hope for the bulldozers, I’ve just seen a rerun of Boris charging at a bunch of school kids during a rugby match and the poor kids were bounced around like skittles.

  50. The underly!ng logic of Johnson’s resignation letter seems to be that because his leave campaign promised a whole bunch of impossible outcomes to gullible voters, and a more sensible government knows it can’t deliver them, he has to wash his hands of the whole affair. It’s nothing but sunlit uplands pap.

    The staggering thing about this is that neither he, nor Davis, has actually bothered to come forward with a coherent alternative plan.

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