Voting intention polls over the last fortnight have been showing the same pattern that we’ve become used to over the last four month: Conservative and Labour very close to each other in support, with the Tories averaging a very small lead.

Survation/GMB (20th June) – CON 41, LAB 38, LDEM 7
ICM/Guardian (24th June) – CON 41, LAB 40, LDEM 9
YouGov/Times (26th June) – CON 42, LAB 37, LDEM 9
Ipsos MORI (27th June) – CON 41, LAB 38, LDEM 9
YouGov/Times (4th July) – CON 41, LAB 40, LDEM 9

There’s a fresh Survation poll in today’s Mail on Sunday, with fieldwork conducted wholly on Saturday, after the Chequers summit. Topline figures there are CON 38%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 10%(+3). While Survation typically show Labour in a better polling position than other companies do, this is still the first Survation poll to show Labour ahead since March. On the other hand, it is well within the normal margin of error (Survation’s polls over the last four months have averaged at CON 41, LAB 40). I will leave it with my normal caveats about reading too much into polls after events – they have the same sample variation as any other poll, so don’t assume that any change is a result of the event, rather than just noise. Wait and see if other polls show a similar pattern of change.

In the meantime, is there anything polling can tell us about how the Brexit deal will impact public attitudes? Our starting point, as is so often the case, should be to recall how little attention most people pay towards the intricacies of the Brexit negoatiations. Most people are not glued to the ins- and outs- of it, don’t know or care about the specifics of court juristrictions and trade regulations. The Brexit deal will, in all likelihood, be judged upon broad brush preceptions. Do people think it is a good deal for Britain? Do people think it is a genuine Brexit?

On those two measures, the Survation poll gave people a brief summary of the deal and asked people if they approved – 33% did, 22% did not, 35% neither approved nor disapproved and 10% did not know. Balance of opinion amongst remainers and leavers was positive, though it went down better among Remainers (for Leave the break was 30% approve, 25% disapprove; for Remain the break was 39% approve, 25% disapprove). The response was less positive when they asked if it was faithful to the referendum result – 29% thought it was, 38% thought it was not, 34% said don’t know. Overall, 26% said it was the right deal, 42% that it was the wrong deal, 32% didn’t know.

That’s clearly a mixed response – the balance of public opinion approves of it, but doesn’t think it respects the result and doesn’t think it’s the right deal. And on all those measures an awful lot of people said don’t know. I expect that’s largely because people have been asked about something they weren’t paying much attention to and didn’t have much of an opinion on it yet (it cannot be easy to get a sample within a space of a few hours at the best of times. When England are playing a World Cup Quarter final at the same point…).

The question is how they will make that decision. For obvious reasons most people will not have spent their Saturday poring over the government press release from the Chequers summit, nor will they read the White Paper this week! It will depend how the papers react to it, how the broadcast media report it, how politicians people recognise like the party leaders, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and so on react to it.

The wise thing to do now is to wait and see if there is any lasting movement in the polls, or whether (in public opinion terms) this is just another one of those arguments about the fine details of Brexit that the public seem to be largely tuning out of.

(Note that – despite what it appears to show on my sidebar to the right – UKIP were NOT on zero percent in the latest Survation poll. The poll didn’t ask people who said they’ve vote “other” which other party they would vote for, so it’s impossible to tell UKIP support from the poll.)

396 Responses to “Latest Voting Intention and the Chequers Summit”

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  1. “Night of the Long Knaves” TM Peter Cairns SNP

    Surely not with Alan Duncan – or is that shortism?

  2. @COLIN

    I said this before. What we are after is essentially the EU without FoM and payments.We still want the a veto and a vote on everything and an ability to set some of the rules.

    We have a stark choice however The EU cannot give that to us or the EU ceases to exist in even pre Maastricht form. The alternatives are Caada style deal or WTO. The problem is for the EU to even bite ECJ will be the arbiter if we want to play with the rules. The fudge that May has produced is not even clear amongst her own advisors which is part of the reason why peopel are selling the bits of it they like. May cannot answer straight questions ofrom LK about what it means because she does not know what it means it is designed to keep the party together.

    THE OTHER HOWARD is upset which kind of says that the barometer of leave is look like it is going to be crap deal .for everyone but the EU which kinds of sums up the idea. I am not sure that aligning with a president that is starting a trade war with everyone is in the national interest.

    David Davis resigning actually is a good thing. My reasoning is that he did not understand anything. his tweet about visiting merkel to sort this out pretty much should have disqualified him immediately. May herself was not much better so I actually believe they really thought the way they did in the initial leaked dinner. If that was the case then we were doomed from the start, this is somethign I predicted at the beginning.

    I argued what would happen is that people would look back in 10 year and say how could we have wasted so much time on so little while the NHS crumbled, social care became a disaster, transport fell apart, the lack of social housing indeed the lack of affordable housing.

    The problem I have is that is the list of problems the country has Brexit does not even come on the third page of 9 point A4 double sided script. It is an irrelevance that no one really know what they want and even why they want it.


    I don’t think the electorate is ignoring the issue I believe the problem is that people are hopelessly divided and more over the constrictions that we have imposed on ourselves, for example no second vote on the deal, no one being happy with the negotiations, no one wanting to move from their position makes it all but impossible for politicians to argue anything but what May puts on the table.

    TREVOR WARNE argument and indeed all of his posts are essentially to say it is the EUs fault. Indeed that has to be the simple message from the referendum along with anger at people having a crappy time of it. Continuing the theme makes him pretty consistent. but I think his arguments have now been about how not to take the blame for the decision and the consequences which were stated at the beginning. As DANNY said if everyone accepted to be poorer even for a short while and that was an acceptable solution then I reckon we would have been out by now but it is not as simple as that.

    For too many voters I met on the door step the EU referendum was not about whether we should stay in the EU or not the vote was essentially a vote on how we are governed, how our government is unaccountable and how while we vote for them we don’t necessary vote for their policies.

    I crystalised the problem several time with a erson I spoke to who was voting leave she was upset with the fact that we have no easy access to the GP that there were a lack of school places in portishead at the time and that we had not sorted out the railway line (portishead is the largest town without a railway) when I pointed out these had nothing to do with the EU she turn and said I know but it is the only vote I have. North Somerset mirrored the country in voting 52:48 leave and our MP is Liam Fox simply put we are confused and tribal and that is why our politicians will fail. yes they are crap but we the electorate do a good job of helping

  3. @ PTRP

    Good post, not much to disagree with there.

    A lot (all?) of the blame lies with Cameron, he really should have thought out the consequences,

    Meanwhile, the EFTA looms for the UK, it’s a bit like a tug of war, we’re being dragged to the inevitable outcome…Brexit delivered for the good of the Conservative party.

    When’s Nigel Farage coming back to lead UKIP?

  4. The focus now will be on signing the backstop details and whether that can be done at all.

    The EU must be concerned about whether negotiations are being done in good faith. The indications are that, while there has been a little bloodletting within the Cabinet, that body remains divided over Brexit.

  5. I note the impressive Robin Walker has not stood down.

    Thanks to Coln/Alec and Danny re tariffs quotas etc.

    Having read their posts and thought about it seems to me that for the vast majority of goods the Tariff levels would have to be the same otherwise the system is unworkable.

    The opportunity for different tariff levels does exist though which is crucial for maintaining the (imo) pretence that we can negotiate our own deals. It may be that for a handful of goods or commodities where the UK has a specific strength and/or vulnerability and transactions are relatively few we will set our own tariffs I suppose.

    As I said yesterday it makes Labour’s position in being in a full Customs Union and not supporting these proposals credible and not just opposition for the sake of it.

    Being in a C.A may or may not be a good policy but at least it is credible and consistent and has been party policy since 2016, plus it is supported by hard remain and all but the 5 Lab uber Brexiteers in the HOC. (Hard remain would like the UK to be in The CU of course but will support A CU).

    We come back to whether 15 Tory Remain MPs will support being in a CA in the trade bill in a couple of week time?

    FWIW, I think a few might but not enough as supporting a Labour amendment is a step too far for some of them and HMG will muddle on but a CU has a majority in the HOC and is where we are heading, if the EU will agree?

  6. PTRP

    @” What we are after is essentially the EU without FoM and payments.We still want the a veto and a vote on everything and an ability to set some of the rules.”

    I don’t know who “we” is. But I never “wanted” that.

    Anyway-its all academic now. Remainer Caution has won the day & I have no doubt Barnier will take advantage of DD’s resignation by turning the screw a few more notches.

    Using your mode of expression-what we will get now is EU without payments & without a vote on anything.

    ….which , absent No Brexit , is exactly what Remainers & The Labour Party wanted.

  7. @ TED

    Before we get bogged down with David Davis just want to echo your thoughts:

    “It made me wish to thank Anthony once again for letting us be here, I would miss the discussion if it weren’t.”

    I think we have all let AW down a bit with his intention for this site but despite his loss of interest in herding cats and everyone straying into partisanship this still remains a forum where generally everyone is civil and where discussions usually rise a bit above the rant level.

    My one worry is that we aren’t going to see the constituency stuff come back. I’m still hoping this is just because he is updating the info for 2017. The constituency section was very handy and useful and even if that info exists elsewhere UKPR was a very easy way to access it.

  8. When did Remain aspire to ‘without payment’ and ‘without a vote’ Colin, I thought they were happy with the status quo? At least I was. I though it was Leave that didn’t want to pay for membership and wanted us out without a vote. Maybe I belong to the same deep thinking class as David Davies.


    As I am an ‘ardent’ remainer (called that by many although I think I am fairly pragmatic) and you would call yourself a pragmatic leaver maybe there is hope but I think. Cameron did what he could to win the election faced with the issues he had. Tactically it was brilliant. he sold a number of themes.

    1. The Scots are coming to take your money
    2. He doubled down on strivers versus scroungers
    3. The EU referendum

    All three got him over the line and yet all three had negative effects. for the EU referendum. The first was that in order to get over the line he promised the no new taxes and 20B of cuts in welfare. essentially hurting the very people who’s vote he needed in the referendum. Northern Labour voters.

    His win in the South West in GE15 was essentially to boost the right of his party as he was now not in coalition with the LDs and therefore these people became relevant again and the promises made put him in a position that meant that he was going to have to fight his own party.

    I think his view was that he was going to win and hence he did not do the tactical things he did in say the London Mayoral election where he all but accused Khan of being a supporter of ISIS in parliament (in my view the Tories had a thoroughly disgusting campaign). If he had used those sort of tactics I think he would have destroyed the party abut may have won the vote. In the end his continuing of austerity (just think if we had voted for Ed Miliband now we would have been on a different trajectory ) broke the voter and made them angry. We voted for this so we could not say well we changed our minds ( as evidenced by the idea of no one wanting a second vote) so we blame the most convenient. The EU has been our whipping boy for all our failed policies for such a long time that the EU has a euromyths page of exclusively UK press headlines. We seem to think they do not understand us but they do. I spoke to a EU regional development advisor when I was working in Northern Ireland and he pointed out that 7 of the poorest 10 regions in the Northern Euro countries are in the UK that is a fascinating fact which he then says that must cause huge resentment that was 2010

    Does farage come back to lead the UKIP? I am not sure part of the appeal of UKIP was that they agitated for a vote and they got it they did not have a policies post EU that made sense not now to a majority of people as I pointed out the problem is you have to tell people going to WTO means we are going to get poorer and there is no guarantee that this will work. The alternative is definitely not taking back control indeed part of my reasoning to be aligned with David Davis is that I agree with what he said. We will have less control than staying and less sovereignty than properly leaving. Offering a we’d like to dip our toe in the water sort of thing and if we like it we’ll leave is not going to work If I was on the other side I’d say no you voted to leave you’ve argued your red lines we have argued our red lines one of them has to give.

    Lastly the idea that there was ever going to be a win win on this was always going to laughable. free trade for example is a political construct, it globalisation required huge changes in law form the movement of money, through to harmonisation of regulations and non tariff barriers that results in a loss of sovereignty. it is why Trump wants a change he understands that in a rules based system he cannot bully anyone. The EU exisitng means that there is a multipolar world we made a strategic error and most people. What we wanted was a special mix of trump and free trade basically where we win we want free trade where we lose we don’t , actually now thinking about it maybe we do want trump type trade deals.

  10. @ Colin

    “So the “agreement” she gained at Chequers didn’t exist.

    She has to go”

    I think you are being slightly harsh on May specifically in relation to Friday’s meeting. There probably wasn’t a Tory leader capable of agreeing a consensus.

    The mistake I think she has made though is not confronting these demons much sooner and misjudgment on choosing a Brexit secretary who doesn’t appear to have been much interested in the compromise that was always going to be necessary. So she has wasted the best part of two years of planning and negotiations in the hope that eventually people in her party would cave in on a compromise. In that sense this has culminated in today’s situation and that has been her fault.

  11. @COLIN

    Remainers wanted to pay and have a vote. it is what we were paying for.

    I believe that the leave campaign promised essentially the EU minus payments and and a deal because they needed us m,ore than we needed them.

    At no point did I remember during the campaign we wanted anything other than staying in the whole thing even Corbyn gave it a 7 out of 10 which to my mind means that it was and is workable.

    Why hard remainers want none of this agreement is that it is less than we currently have and by a significant margin we will still end up paying into stuff because it makes sense to do so we will end up apy as much as we do now but with less say. The alternative was to go back to the electorate when people like BMW/Airbus/Nissan and the liek make good on their plans and say it is what we voted for. As Hammond said no one has ever voted to make themselves poorer and basically that is the problem leave has had. How to sell this and hence the unicorn and sunny uplands meme.

    As I said we fundamentally disagreed as to what would happen and why. You believed that May would get a deal that preserved her red lines and preserved the economy. I believed that if we stood by those red lines we would end up with no deal. I think May has decided that no deal is the worst of all deals. A that is why I believe we are in this situation. Now the Tories can go get someone who thinks that a no deal is a good deal but I think there is not enough mad people out there that want to be out of power.

    May’s problem was that like Davis she knew little about how the EU worked (hell Davis’s infamous tweet kind of said it all). That was my major point about us here in the Uk we drink too much of the anti german kool-aid.

    teh bottom line is like Iraq neither side will get what they want unlike Iraq we wont be paying for it in peoples lives which is the only plus. As i said I am 0-2 in what I think are stupid ideas, I am looking forward to some referendum on capital punishment and losing that to people whom then have to explain how we resolve miscarriages of justice etc, when we bring it back

  12. @PTRP

    “I crystalised the problem several time with a erson I spoke to who was voting leave she was upset with the fact that we have no easy access to the GP that there were a lack of school places in portishead at the time and that we had not sorted out the railway line (portishead is the largest town without a railway) when I pointed out these had nothing to do with the EU she turn and said I know but it is the only vote I have”

    I can’t agree more. I was with my Leave-voting parents this weekend and my father was getting increasingly upset about the negotiations. I paraphrase as he used language which is not appropriate for this venue – and is very out of character for him – but his view was that he voted Leave because he was sick of being told by people, usually, affluent Tories, who he had never voted for and who knew nothing about him what he thought. And in his view it’s got worse. He says every time a Brexiteer says ‘this is not what 17.4m people voted for’ he wants to scream ‘what, have you asked them all?’

    To put it pithily as my father did, round his way the referendum question was interpreted by the working class folk as ‘Do you want the Tories to ‘. The answer was a wholehearted ‘yes’.

  13. Good Morning everyone from a very hot Bournemouth.
    Ted Heath always said that it is impossible to placate the Tory Right.

    in terms of raw politics I do not think Labour Party needs to do anything but watch and wait; politics has become nasty and partisan, so there is little cross-the aisle- good will.
    IMO Cameron and Osborne are greatly to blame for the conduct of the Referendum Campaign, but Ed Miliband is culpable also for his campaign against his brother followed by his own leadership decisions.

  14. @SHEVII

    If that was the case why did she have the citizens of no where speech, the red line lancaster house speech hell the leaked dinner with barnier and Junkers seemed to suggest she was of the same view as Davis.

    I think the problem was that she did believe she had all the card and when it came down to it each one fell away. WE need a deal, I don’t think the EU does and that is the fascinating part in all of this. That appeared to be the agreed position early on.

    May problem was most probably a realisation that she could not be PM and deliver the sort of brexit her red lines demanded without costing the party electorially and the idea of Corbyn being so unelectable pretty much sealed her fate. had she won that election I think a no deal would have been done, but look at the polls. No one wants a no deal and if it cost people their jobs even if they voted for this sh1t they would kick her and the Tories out. it is that realisation which is tempering the Tories at the moment.

  15. @Shevii

    The problem May had is she needed Leavers to fill key positions and one of the really big issues we have is that Euroscepticism has been a way for really quite undistinguished people to fawn to their shrinking membership and get selected as Tory candidates. As a consequence the talent pool for potential Ministers of a Brexit bent is really very shallow indeed. This why Johnson, Fox and Davis are/were in the Cabinet when none of them are of remotely Cabinet character on either ability (Davis) or character (Fox, Johnson).

  16. Sorry, tried to be clever in my post at 8:50 and am not actually clever so it didn’t work.

    To put it pithily as my father did, round his way the referendum question was interpreted by many working class folk as ‘Do you want the Tories to go forth and multiply ‘. The answer was a wholehearted ‘yes’.

  17. The issue is if May did go what next?

    There could be another election but on the most important policy for the Conservative manifesto would be what is their position on Brexit.

    I cannot see how they can come together to agree a position so one side or the other will be not fully committing maybe even argueing against Conservative policy

    If there is no election and a new leader is appointed the same again, it is difficult to see any one unifying the two very different viewpoints on Brexit.

  18. @CHRISLANE1945

    I can’t see how Ed Miliband beating his brother has anyhting to do with how we voted in the Eu referendum. Indeed Ed Miliband was the unity candidate. David Miliband clung on to the idea that the Iraq war was good as a clear example of how we seem to project on people something that the fact never seem to actually show.

    Indeed we are now looking to persue the policies of Ed Miliband almost lock stock and barrel almost 3 years after rejecting him is to my mind ironic. before I decided to stop my FT subscription I had an interaction with one of the journalist there. She wrote a glowing piece on the miliband policies when I pointed pout to her that she rubbished these policies in 2015 she said she had no real answer but now it is clear that these are the correct policies to follow.

    I try an point out that much of our politics is tribal. You are right to blame Cameron and Osborne of being tactical but then again their job was to win power and that they knew what buttons to press. david Miliband would have been no better he had no policies and indeed when Corbyn came to town, the moderates again produced nothing in the way of policies which were radical or useful. That is why I think Corbyn was inevitable it is not that I am a Corbyn supporter but I think he has started to ask the right questions. if it were not for Corbyn will we be talking about a settlement for the NHS for example? Tell me david Miliband would have pushed the policy agenda that way?

  19. Jimjam
    “We come back to whether 15 Tory Remain MPs will support being in a CA in the trade bill in a couple of week time?”

    Just a minor point, which I hadn’t picked up on until reading the daily blog so far in the Graun just now with a lightness of heart I feel rarely when so doing these days (and put in mind of Viv Stanshall’s line about Sir Henry at breakfast chuckling over the obituaries in the Times) but school breaks up on Friday.

    She only had to keep this together for one week, and a few days around the conferences in September, then Ddavis could have ridden in like Peter O’Toole in the director’s cut of Lawrence of Arabia, jumped off his donkey, marched into Barnier’s office and burped loudly as Monsieur B shook his head sadly before sending him politely away.

    One week and they could have kept the lid on it for the rest of the summer, when even those of us who would sooner gouge out part of our bodies with cutlery than watch a football match are thinking “semi final against Croatia? Really?”, but they couldn’t even manage that.

    Of course things might calm down over the summer, when we actually have lost to Croatia, but the last two years have demonstrated that with nothing else to talk about the media’s fancy will quickly turn to thoughts of Brexit.

    It may have all changed by the time I’ve finished tapping this out, but the Graun earlier suggested that Grayling is being considered as O’Toole’s understudy and for one brief moment the world looked a brighter place, if that were possible at the moment.

    I’m actually starting to think Danny’s conspiracy rather than self inflicted misfortune theory may have some grounding in truth, even if it looks like the biggest custard pie confrontation in history, might it actually have been planned to look like this?

  20. ChrisR
    Shouldn’t that be go forth and subtract? :)


    I don’t believe DANNY’s conspiracy theory because of the leaked meeting between David May Junkers and Barnier. it basically was not refuted in terms of substance but was seen as bad form in terms of kiss and tell as it were. That said that we did not have a clue about how the Eu operated and it was clear that May was going for a menu of items as she saw fit. booth of these basically lead to the red lines.
    Simply put these people actually believed what they were saying and that is why I think the whole thing was leaked. and Barnier basically got on the phone to Merkel to say we are #@@king mad.

    Since then it has been a slow realisation and therefore a slow backing down I feel sorry for them all since they were so deluded they really believed they could pull it off. But then again the Swiss did the same and the greeks did the same.

  22. @ chris Riley

    You 8.50 post worked for me!

    Problem on Brexit has always been the multitude of reasons for voting Brexit that tipped it to 52% but a big divide between the Labour voting Brexiters (immigration and making trains in Derby without EU open market tenders) and the Tory Brexit (ECJ and rules). But you’ve got to say, ignoring any economic consequences, your parent’s vote seems to have had the desired effect… almost.

    Anyway will you be making a trip to Pem for the World Cup final for old times sake? “We won the league in Pemberton!” Been doing a pub in the town centre (as featured on Wigan today) and was seriously uncomfortable on Saturday- not because of any unpleasantness, just too crowded and did end up with beer on my T-Shirt… but it has to be done. Apparently Wigan council were too late trying to order a big screen as they were all taken.

  23. David Davis playing the martyr. Trouble is he rarely turned up for meetings and didn’t know his brief. All in all a very thick man who doesn’t deserve the pay an MP gets.

  24. Chris: I remain sceptical of the claim that the Brexit vote was anything to do with punishing the Tories. If people had wanted to do that, they wouldn’t have re-elected a Tory government the previous year.

    I guess it may have been the case for a small (but, given the margin of victory, crucial) fraction of the electorate. But in the main, people voted leave because they wanted to leave. The leavers are indeed guilty of interpreting the referendum result to suit their own agenda, but so are remainers – and to be honest, the remainers have to do a lot more mental gymnastics to get there.

  25. Chris: surely on a forum like this the euphemism of choice should be “discussing Uganda”. I think most UKPR posters would get the reference.

  26. According to the Guardian – “Davis says the plan for a common rulebook with the EU on goods means that it will be very, very difficult for the UK not to agree with what the EU is doing. Final decisions will be taken by the European court of justice. And if the UK decides it does not want to along with EU rules, the Northern Ireland backstop could be triggered. That would be a “sword of Damacles”.”

    My, my. It’s taken Davis three days to realise this, despite Robert Peston reporting this on the national news last Tuesday.

    I wouldn’t be too surprised if Davis resigned after seeing the reaction among Tory backbench Brexiters to the response of Gove and Boris. There are some choice quotes doing the rounds about this pair, to the extent that their chances of supplanting May have now gone.

    A resignation on principle outs Davis once again at the head of the hard core and in pole position to attempt to wrest the leadership from May.

  27. This is like watching a school play version of Julius Caesar where when they try to Knife May it turns out they forgot to bring the knives!

    So they all just shout “Stabbitty Stab Stab!”

    Meanwhile May just staggers about endlessly whaling because, although she should know the script, she doesn’t and is so fond of being centre stage she won’t lie down!


  28. Another Tory Mp proving he doesn’t know what he’s on about.

  29. It’s almost 10.00; TOH should be back from his allotment after watering his plants and burying his hopes!


  30. Another Tory MP proving he doesn’t know what he’s on about.

  31. The Times has really thrown a spanner into the works in terms of the crucial question of the day – how many times Davis threatened to resign without ever doing it. According to them he privately suggested he was going to three separate times last week. Is this a normal Davis Resignation Number?

    Perhaps he normally tops out at one or two resignation threats a week and this week was unusually difficult as there was a danger he might be asked to do some work.

    At least this solves the question of what on earth he has been doing these last two years, apart from briefing friendly hacks.

  32. @Polltroll

    Ugandan affairs are generally held to be a wholly consensual and two-sided discussion.

    The voters in question absolutely do not want to discuss Uganda with the Conservatives!

  33. Conservative Home reporting that Davis had written at least a draft of his resignation letter at least a month ago.

    May must have known he was looking for an excuse.

  34. Alec

    “Come now – where is the man’s self awareness?”

    Typical of you as ever to get it completely wrong. I have never been completely trusting of May as you put it.If you care to go back you will find the post in which I warned not to trust politicians to deliver the vote of the people and I have been proved correct at least in the case of May. She wrote perfectly sound red lines and has now deviated from them to the level of betrayal of her own stated principles.

    I see that D Davis who does have sound principles, having tried his best has resigned in protest and there have been another two resignations as well. Power to him and all who will work for a proper Brexit.

    I hope and pray that if nobody has the spine to exit the EU properly then we crash out without a deal. It will be painful for all of us in the short term but straying in or closely linked to the EU would be madness, IMO of course.

  35. Howard,

    I suggest without glee that guarantees from Steve Baker will be rather unreliable as well.

  36. Peter Cairns

    “Meanwhile May just staggers about endlessly whaling”

    I thought that was illegal.

  37. Interesting to see how the Davis affair is perceived in EU27. In Spain, El Pais writes (I’ll put the original first as even if you don’t speak Spanish bits are understandable, and it shows what an expressive language Spanish is):

    “Se trata de un espectacular giro en el tragicómico culebrón que protagoniza el Gobierno británico en las negociaciones del Brexit, observado con perplejidad desde el otro lado del canal de La Mancha, a solo nueve meses de la fecha en que Reino Unido deberá estar fuera de la UE.”

    Or, in my loose translation: “It represents a spectacular twist in the tragicomic soap opera being played out by the British government, watched with bemusement from the other side of the Channel, only nine months from when the UK must leave the EU”

    In short, we’ve become a bad joke.

  38. Peter Cairns SNP

    Sorry to disappoint Peter.

    I am full of positive hopes for the UK despite the current difficulties with Brexit. We will eventually be free of this tawdry relationship with the EU, one way or another, I have no doubt of that.

  39. Norbold’

    “I thought that was illegal!”

    Not when we get control of our own Waters!!!!

    I see TOH as the new Captain Ahab!

    I see we have Rabb as Brexit Minister; hopefully Mr Nesbit can do a better job!


  40. Dominic ‘British workers are all lazy’ Raab, eh? A rabid deregulationist who wants the exact opposite of half the Brexit supporters is now Brexit Secretary.

    The last dwindling vestiges of the idea that the Government actually cares about why people voted to leave the EU disappear. This is, and always has been, just about the Conservatives.

    What on earth do they expect to happen post Brexit when all the things working class Leavers voted against are still there, and in many cases are worse – and are worse on purpose as a stated Government aim? Applause? Polite disappointment?

  41. Everything is OK!
    Dominic Raab has been apppointed Brexit Secretary. WhoTF is he?

  42. TOH,

    “We will eventually be free of this tawdry relationship with the EU!”

    A relationship established and developed over 40 years by a succession of democratically elected UK Governments choose by the British People!

    Your such a big fan of British Sovereignty and the supposed superiority of our system, but when the end result of what your fighting to strength turns out to be something you don’t like you call it “tawdry”

    You talk about democracy but want populism.
    You talk about freedom but you want control.
    You talk about patriotism but you want obedience.
    You talk about making our own decisions but the only decisions you accept are ones you like.
    You talk about having winning the argument when you run from every challenge.

    I see why you spend so much time on your allotment, the plants will just listen and nod in the wind, never answering back!



    I am sorry to burst that bubble but read Lord Ashcrofts book on the referendum. “Well you did ask…”

    Ashcroft is a leave supporter and yes many people voted to repatriate laws and they like but his conclusion was thus

    “whatever was printed on the ballot paper the question large numbers of voters heard and the answer they gave had nothing much to do with the European Union … ultimately, the question many saw was: ‘Are you happy with the way things are and the way they seem to be going?’ And their answer was: ‘Well, since you ask … no’

    This was not about the EU in many ways it was a argument between social liberals and social conservatives across many of the political parties. In the end the reason that people will not change their mind is that the same people are still unhappy and yes they voted for Cameron in GE2015 but having had omnishambles of budget when they tried to enact what people voted for and found that they did seem to like what they voted for. I personally think that voters are often not sure what they are voting for or what the effects of the policies they are voting for will be even if they are clearly stated. Now before the referendum I would have been with you in saying people really did know what they were voting for and were fully paid up to it but actually most of the people I met on the doorstep be they remainers or leave had little grasp of the decision that was being made.

    That is a sad fact that as I said will lead to capital punishment coming back at some point.

  44. Just to add my observations on why people voted to leave…I live in the Clacton Constituency, where, at the time of the Referendum, our MP was the only UKIP MP, Douglas Carswell, and we had a large vote in favour of leaving.

    By far the most common reason given on the doorstep for this was basically too many foreigners, we need to stop immigration. This in a constituency that in the 2011 census showed a population of over 98% white British.

    The second most popular reason was getting back sovereignty and not having all our laws passed in Brussels. To the question we usually posed, “Which laws passed in Brussels?” there was never any answer, just that we’re ruled by Brussels.

    The economic aspects didn’t really register anywhere on the Leavers’ scale, other than vague references to “Project Fear” and no-one believes politicians scare stories.

  45. @NORBOLD

    Clacton is were east end cockney’s went to retire back in the day. This is from the a person that lived in a street in Plaistow where out of 100 houses there were only 2 non white families in 1972

    The world changed for them under thatcherism but there has always been a strong anti immigration and ant black pitch by conservatives of the day. indeed I confronted a tory canvasser that put the sort of rubbish through my letter box during an election once and she was of the opinion it was not our country anymore back then in the mid 80s

    Much of it is fear in my view fear of the world changing fear of difference.


    “Much of it is fear in my view fear of the world changing fear of difference.”

    Or that we are “Loss Averse”, we embrace change that makes us, happier or better off, but resist changes that we see as costing us.

    It’s like those who bemoans the loss of our traditional way of life, hates Wind Farms for blighting the Countryside and our natural environment and then drive SUVs to the out of town Tesco, and sit having a coffee looking out over a carpark the size of Wembley while reading a Telegraph editorial about it all being “their” fault.

    People bemoan and resist what they see as a lost past while failing to see that it has been changed as much by the things that have benefitted them as the things they dislike.


  47. @ COLIN

    “What a sodding mess. I fear for the economy now.”

    Only NOW?! Where have you been the last 2+ years? Did you seriously at any point think the Conservative party wasn’t going to tear itself apart over this, dragging the country down with it? Cameron started it, May’s continuing and whoever takes over will finish the job.

    “Using your mode of expression-what we will get now is EU without payments & without a vote on anything.

    ….which , absent No Brexit , is exactly what Remainers & The Labour Party wanted.”

    Remainers want to remain. Talking about 2nd choices is stupid. For a start, I expect there’s many Leave voters who, absent a no deal Brexit, would take BINO. Have you asked?


    We have enough white or black paint indeed we the problem is no one really wants grey.

    Those that want black think that whit is being stupid and those that want white think that black is being stupid. Both think that grey is worse because it does not meet any of the real requirements that bot sides voted for.

    In the main people voted to either be rid of the EU as a political entity or accept it as a political entity we are doing neither with this compromise. Indeed it is transition to a possible transition of a possible transition. I feel sorry for all sides since actually I think the situation is clearly broken when we could not get a consensus


    I’ve said for a long time – the people are stupid, why ask them their opinions?

  50. @TOH – “Typical of you as ever to get it completely wrong. I have never been completely trusting of May….”

    That’s a complete fib (as complete as the one about never bothering to read remainer posts……).

    I’m not sure why, but you seem to be the only poster on UKPR that can’t ever accept you’ve got something wrong. It’s a little weird, to be honest.

    A while back I prepared for this outcome, as it was very obvious what was going to happen and how you would respond, so here are a few of your own words to help you remember just how much you trusted May.

    “I cannot see the UK government shifting its position on not agreeing money until a trade deal is available.”
    September 6th, 2017 at 10:15 am

    @Sam “At present it seems likely that any transitional period will be followed by a hard Brexit. Is this likely to change?”
    @TOH “If you mean we will have left the EU in the fullest sense the answer is yes, and no that will not change..”
    August 14th, 2017 at 8:36 am

    “….if we don’t leave the single market and the customs union we are still in the EU. If we still accept some jurisdiction by the ECJ in the UK we have not left the EU. We voted to leave not be half in, half out. It’s very clear to me and the government, it’s just some Remainers don’t accept the vote of the people.”
    August 8th, 2017 at 2:16 pm

    “Yes I watched him [Davis] on Marr. Very good as usual, and good to see the ECJ firmly ruled out as last arbiter again.”
    September 24th, 2017 at 12:01 pm

    “Not a complete mess at all IMO, the governments position has not actually changed significantly at all.”
    September 24th, 2017 at 8:45 am

    Enough said.

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