Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,740 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. PT – the difference being I cite fact and evidence. Hence Tristan et al scuttled off quietly after I corrected him.

  2. New Yougov poll…Public confidence in Boris Johnson continues to plummet, as new polling shows his approval rating drop to – 7%.

    And 43% of Britons think the Prime Minister is doing a good job, with 50% saying he is performing poorly.

    This is down from a plus 22% approval rating from YouGov polling just one month ago on 9 May.

  3. Many of the comments below the line on ConHome are blisteringly awful for Boris now. Particularly on school reopenings and appeasement of statue destroyers. To Paul Goodman’s credit, even the site’s articles are now strongly critical of government performance. If Boris doesn’t properly get a grip of all this I can see him being out on his arse before the end of the year.

    I never thought I would see myself writing such a thing, but Priti Patel has proved to be one of the very few senior cabinet ministers who have surprised me on the upside. Sunak’s popularity will end when the furlough scheme does likewise.

  4. “The fact that this policy will deeply annoy Big Terry and his lovely wife Karen in the Brexit heartlands just makes it even sweeter.”

    Sorry to see you saying that. If the main merit of a policy is that it needles your opponents, it’s probably not a good policy.

    Personally I have deep misgivings about it, partly because of Boris’s long history of making sweeping ill considered policy announcements that either go hugely wrong or amount to nothing more than virtue signalling. Garden bridges, estuary airports and bridges to Ireland all spring to mind here.

    In reality it is already easy for Hong Kongers to move here if they want to, and it is entirely right that we look on asylum applications from HK dissidents sympathetically. So I’m not sure if such a big sweeping statement is actually going to make much practical difference. More generally we are going to have to learn to let go of our former colonies, no matter how disappointed we are with the state of their governance since we left, it’s not like our own democracy is in A1 shape at the moment.

  5. ‘Sorry to see you saying that. If the main merit of a policy is that it needles your opponents, it’s probably not a good policy’

    I think you’ve just described a lot of people who vote for Trump or Brexit…they have no interest in the details of policy, but they know it’ll annoy a few liberals. C’est la vie. The right don’t have the monopoly on vindictiveness.

  6. ‘More generally we are going to have to learn to let go of our former colonies’.

    I agree 100%, but I would argue that the British public as a whole has absolutely let go of Hong Kong, barring a few old Colonel Blimp types and senior politicians. I don’t get the impression anyone knows much about Hong Kong anymore or cares at all, which is saddening for me.personally but quite understandable. It’s not even a particularly favoured expat destination anymore, having being usurped by Singapore, Dubai, Shanghai and a few other places. Fantastic place though if you can stand the heat, both literally and figuratively.

  7. Sunak was made Chancellor – arguably the second most important job in government – for one reason alone – he adores Boris Johnson and will do whatever he is asked

    As was discussed as the time, that’s a pretty dire arrangement that the country won’t benefit from.

    The furlough scheme is absolute life saver for millions of mostly low to middle income workers many of whom would be on the dole que had the government not stepped in – so credit it where it’s due although I very much doubt it was Sunak’s brainchild.

    I think that’s about as likely as the idea that Dominic Raab took his own law exam

  8. So an update on that Islamophobia inquiry: the Conservative Party has appointed Munira Mirza to run it.

    One of Boris Johnson’s deputy mayors, long-time Spiked contributor. I smell a whitewash…

  9. Appointing someone from spiked is like appointing someone from Novara media

  10. That, according to ex Telegraph and Mail columnist Peter Oborne, is one reason why he thinks the PM is the new Enoch Powell (in that he is intent on stoking racial tensions):

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uk-boris-johnson-modern-day-enoch-powell-racism-tension

  11. DIdn’t Oborne say he’d vote Corbyn? As did Nigel Evans’ gay barrister.

    Whilst at the same time Trevor Phillips is moving rightwards and attacking every PC position that Labour propose.

    Although when they think banning Swing Low or Cocopops’ adverts is the zeitgeist I’m not entirely surprised.

    I’ll have to get around to posting it, but on another thread someone asked what ex-MPs are upto now and there was a good feature about a dozen or so in a Sunday paper last month.

    I recall a few trad ex-Labour MPs had jobs in nuclear, fracking etc and Alex Salmond was writing a horse racing tipster column. I imagine the Corbynista anti-everything activists must really hate them all even more now.

  12. Natasha Engel the former MP for North East Derbyshire until 2017 was for a short time was a fracking tsar but I understand it didn’t last long due to differences of opinion as i understand.

    I read somewhere Jamie Reed now works at Sellafield. But I might be making that up.

    As a Corbynista I’m actually fairly in favour of nuclear power. Nuclear waste not so much but fission is the future. I am opposed to shale gas fracking but that’s not an uncommon opinion across the political spectrum. I remember a fairly robust QT in Blackpool where clearly this was an issue and the audience were very critical panel members who were in favour of it.

    Generally speaking all that for people getting jobs for some PR firm or nuclear engineer but there are a couple who’ve become tsars or envoys and its just like another cushy job after parliament like a peerage. It just looks like an exclusive club

  13. Jamie Reed works at Sellafield but not in an engineering role, I think they have employed him as in an ambassadorial role promoting the industry. A utopian would call him an educator, a cynic might label him a lobbyist.

    I am pleased to see nuclear power getting some support on the political left. It’s most definitely the least bad energy source we have right now, though obviously unless cold fusion emerges it can only ever be a transitionary measure while we solve the storage problems that wind, solar etc currently suffer from. I think part of the problem is that the word “nuclear” generates knee-jerk opposition among some socialists, because of the association with nuclear weapons. (Much as the green belt gets more support than it should do due to the cuddly associations of the word “green”.)

  14. Aye you’re a 100% right there. I am concerned about nuclear waste and I am a unilateralist but as nuclear energy is pretty long lasting and alternative renewables are not quite there yet its as you say best option atm.

    I am also quite flexible about Green Belt. There is a lot of it and I saw on QT the Taxpayers Alliance argue only 1% would house a million people. It would also end the obsession of building ontop of ourselves. I love the countryside I also like the green spaces we have in the city. I don’t want them concreted over because its easier politically

  15. Re the nuclear power chat:

    https://www.cityam.com/a-message-from-a-former-extinction-rebellion-activist-fellow-environmentalists-join-me-in-embracing-nuclear-power

    Extinction Rebellion are an immensely influential group, so I would be delighted to see them embracing concrete green policies rather than trading in fantasy rhetoric.

  16. COVID is a double-edged sword for Extinction Rebellion IMO.

    On the positive side for them, the crisis has showed us that a new future with less travel gridlock, less commuting and less damaging consumption is possible and indeed achievable.

    On the negative side, they can expect much less tolerance from both the police and the public when their protests go too far.

  17. Clearly working more remotely is now a genuine possibility. Our employer is now offering more remote training on a permanent basis for staff

  18. “Clearly working more remotely is now a genuine possibility.”

    In the white collar professions like banking, it’s almost a certainty.

    The companies have already been forced to invest hugely in the IT infrastructure needed for home working due to the virus, so the setup costs are already sunk. Meanwhile they will save a fortune in reduced office space and play hardball with the landlords, and employees are paying for their own heating, internet etc. This aspect of capitalism is doing well out of COVID. Corporate landlords, rail firms and places where city workers buy sandwiches etc will be decimated.

  19. In one sense freeing up office space could be a blessing in disguise. Tory councils are leading the way in turning empty high street shopping like old sandwich shops into housing stock and councils forced to find money by cuts from central government have made invested big into developments to increase capital expenditure. I can see councils making a similar leap for office space and the government will be all for it given income from rent goes to them.

    Rail firms are already in the pan now the government have pulled the plug on franchise rail tbf.

  20. We will see rents in London plunge, good news for the young but the place will inevitably get tattier and more dangerous as wealth moves out, as we saw in the 1970s and early 80s (watch Minder or The Sweeney to see how London was then).

    “Rail firms are already in the pan now the government have pulled the plug on franchise rail tbf.”

    Rail passenger numbers remain 90% below normal even though road traffic is now only 20% below normal. The rail industry is petrified what will happen when the government starts to reduce the massive support it is getting at the moment. Normal passenger numbers won’t be back for many years, if ever. You read it here first – the government are going to provoke a massive battle to smash up the rail unions once and for all, using there being hardly any passengers as an advantage (strikes will hurt very few right now).

  21. Capital flight in London might actually reverse the trends we are seeing in places like Bournemouth, Adur, Worthing, Reading, etc. House prices are driving young people to cheaper places and they are taking their politics with them to the Tories dismay.

    This is the great irony of privatised rail. Despite the increase in passenger usage being attributed to the success of the railway outside public hands the public continue to contribute to it even if they have never got on a train in their life.

    Do you not think strike action could hurt what little economic recovery might happen as lockdown eases. The only people who travel will be those who have to

  22. For me, the obvious straw in the wind with regards to the future of rail is nothing to do with the unions, it’s HS2. If home-working is the future then that maybe the final nail in the coffin for the project.

    I have, for a long time, been heavily in favour of the scheme, though part of that I concede was because I was determined not to be on the same side as an unholy coalition between shire Tory NIMBYs and the degrowth wing of the green movement. But if COVID is going to have a permanent effect on commuting patterns then it may be that, through sheer serendipity, they were right all along (albeit for the wrong reasons). When the facts change, i change my mind.

  23. The govt intends to axe current planning regs, according to Cummings. Full proposals in a month or Two but it is reported that it will push thru: no permission required for conversions from offices to residential use; easier for retail shops use to changed; No permission to build vertically on yr house; easier for developers on brownfield sites…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8476781/Boris-Johnson-vows-tear-planning-red-tape-driver-rebuild-Britain-create-jobs.html

  24. New research confirms what most of us already knew: the Tories have worked out how to lie and get away with it:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-party-disinformation-2019-general-election-a9682566.html

  25. Opinion latest:

    Con 39
    Lab 42

    There have been a couple that put them on level pegging, but this as far as I’m aware is the first time the Tories have gone behind in a poll since the election.

  26. Correct and i thinknits because Johnson has not been sounding and looking great recently. The govt also naturally will get a lot of flak at these forbidding times just because they’re in charge.

  27. I mean, yes, sometimes governments get blamed for stuff that isn’t their fault, but in this case the government has handled the situation pretty poorly throughout.

    Funnily enough, when a party spends years perfecting a comms strategy of misdirection and blame-shifting, don’t be surprised when it can’t convey vital information clearly in a crisis that requires public trust. This is the “people have had enough of experts” approach coming home to roost.

  28. I mean, talking about losing public trust, I’ve just read that the government is lining up Paul Dacre to run Ofcom. A man who has spent decades inveighing against the BBC is now expected to adjudicate impartially.

    The BBC should be one of the government’s biggest tools in handling a crisis like this, it’s a source of information that reaches nearly everyone, and carries the confidence of the vast majority, despite a decades-long campaign to undermine it from the right-wing press. And now you’re putting one of the most infamous barons of that right-wing press in charge of its regulator? Talk about a conflict of interest…

  29. Worth mentioning the house effect. Opinium have been more favourable to Labour of recent. Two other pollsters have published polls today. Yougov Con 42 Lab 39 Deltapoll Con 42 Lab 38.

  30. Via YouGov:

    Con 45 (+4)
    Lab 32 (-4)

    (Fieldwork done before the budget)

    A probable outlier, but the direction of travel is clear.

  31. Bear in mind usual caveats but amongst C2DE the Tory lead is 25 points. In 2019 it was 15 points

  32. I recommend this article in The Critic: “How is Labour shaping up under Starmer?”
    https://thecritic.co.uk/starmer-year-one/
    That gives some good perspective.

    It’s pretty inevitable that Boris and co would get a polling bounce from the vaccine rollout. And I can’t see Starmer plumbing the low depths that Corbyn got, either on personal ratings or for Labour.

  33. Depends on what you mean by plumping the depths as low as Corbyns Labour. I can see Labour doing worse in May than we did the last time these elections took place. I’ve been telephone canvassing it’s been alright. Last week was good but this week has been pretty mixed. I’m hearing from friends is Tory gain PCC from Labour in Leicester. Mixed results in Derby. Holds in Notts and London Mayoralty. Gains in Buckingham

  34. Scotland is to be expected. In Sheffield i think we’re up against it against the Greens and Lib Dems

  35. “Government set to plough ahead with vaccine passports despite resistance from MPs and hospitality”

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/government-set-to-plough-ahead-with-vaccine-passports-despite-resistance-from-mps-and-hospitality#.YGXw-o97Dd8.twitter

    Welcome to Boris Johnson’s poll tax (which was also superficially popular in polls before it was actually introduced).

    Short term consequences – smug vaccinated oldies jollying it up down the pub while youngsters who haven’t yet been offered a vaccine forced to remain stuck at home. Street brawls up and down the land as pubs and other venues try to enforce the law. The young half of the population totally stops obeying the COVID rules.

    Long term consequences – the UK population effectively turns into 67 million electrically-tagged sheep, with the government tracking your every move.

    I can’t remember ever feeling so angry about a government policy. Brexit didn’t quite break my 26 year long Tory voting habit but this definitely has. Good on Starmer and Davey for coming out against this despite what the polls say at the moment.

  36. I find myself kind of sympathetic to this. We’ve been discussing at length at work in general manager meetings what we do about staff that refuse the vaccine and work with vulnerable people. I don’t like the idea of making people carry a passport every where, reminds me of ID cards. But I genuinely don’t know the solution. What does put me off is statically most people it appears are people from a BME background and this would only discriminate against them

  37. HH – they wouldn’t be introduced until after all adults have been offered the vaccines.

    Personally, I’m against but don’t foresee the problems you mention as the bulk of the public are sadly quite Statist (ie do what they are told).

    With improving weather (in May, June – April looks poor), 80% vaccinated and holidays abroad set to go ahead from June, I can only see the Govt becoming more popular in 2021 at least.

  38. I didn’t think I would ever utter this sentence, but here goes: Jeremy Corbyn and Iain Duncan Smith are both right about this.

    Instinctively I don’t like the idea, but I don’t think it’s morally reprehensible so I can’t truly call it the worst thing this government has done.

    And, I may not be a representative sample, but I intend to stick to COVID rules while they are still in force. It’ll only be for a couple more months, maybe if that June 21st date gets prolonged I might be tempted to disregard them.

  39. “HH – they wouldn’t be introduced until after all adults have been offered the vaccines.”

    I fear that will be incorrect. Note that the vaxport concept is already being trialled this month at football matches and will be used at the FA Cup final. The wording about them “helping open up the economy” only makes sense if we are below herd immunity, as with herd immunity they are medically pretty irrelevant (though still useful as a tracking device of course).

    I can kind of see the logic for mass events like major sports fixtures and festivals. But for every trip to the pub or library it’s definitely not on.

    Note also Boris won’t commit to insisting that all foreign arrivals into UK are vaccinated, whilst making it impossible for those of us who live here to do anything without having been so. It’s insane.

  40. AFAIK we’ll always be below herd immunity (if this is c 80%), due to under 18s not being vaccinated as well as the pregnant and those who refuse etc. But we may get close to it.

    Tbf I’m surprised we don’t already ask to see ID for stadia, given the terrorism threat.

    In Lpool and Manc, doormen already ask to see photo ID (mainly passports) to check students are 18 and in some clubs a photo is taken as I think casinos now do.

    As I said, I agree in that I’m against some council bod having the power to bar people from their local library. I suspect most who oppose the idea will be allowed in their local where they’re known. In city centres checks will almost certainly take place and as many will be new students or tourists etc I doubt many will object.

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