Stockton South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24221 (46.8%)
Labour: 19175 (37%)
Lib Dem: 1366 (2.6%)
Green: 952 (1.8%)
UKIP: 5480 (10.6%)
Independent: 603 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 5046 (9.7%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: North East, Cleveland. Part of the Stockton on Tees council area.

Main population centres: Stockton, Thornaby, Yarm, Ingleby Barwick, Eaglescliffe.

Profile: Straddling the traditional boundary between Yorkshire and County Durham, Stockton South is a relatively affluent and middle class seat compared to most seats in the North-East. Contains the southern part of Stockton itself and the towns of Thornaby, Yarm, Ingleby Barwick and Eaglescliffe.

Politics: Stockton South is unusual just for being a Conservative seat in the Labour dominated North East - their only other seats in the regon is the large rural Northumberland seats. Stockton South is regarded as a marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, won very marginally by the Conservatives in 2010 and 2015. Stockton South was one of only 6 to return SDP MPs in the 1983 election, with Ian Wrigglesworth one of only four of the sitting MPs who crossed the floor to retain his seat, largely because his Conservative opponent was revealed to have past links with the National Front and many Conservative ministers refused to campaign for him. The seat fell to the Conservatives in 1987, and to Labour in 1997..

Current MP
JAMES WHARTON (Conservative) Born 1984, Stockton. Educated at Yarm School and Durham University. Former solicitor. First elected as MP for Stockton South in 2010. Junior Minister for local growth and Northern Powerhouse since 2015. Wharton was the youngest Conservative MP returned at the 2010 election.
Past Results
Con: 19577 (39%)
Lab: 19245 (38%)
LDem: 7600 (15%)
BNP: 1553 (3%)
Oth: 2309 (5%)
MAJ: 332 (1%)
Con: 15341 (34%)
Lab: 21480 (48%)
LDem: 7171 (16%)
UKIP: 931 (2%)
MAJ: 6139 (14%)
Con: 14328 (32%)
Lab: 23414 (53%)
LDem: 6012 (14%)
Oth: 455 (1%)
MAJ: 9086 (21%)
Con: 17205 (33%)
Lab: 28790 (55%)
LDem: 4721 (9%)
MAJ: 11585 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
JAMES WHARTON (Conservative) See above.
LOUISE BALDOCK (Labour) Born 1965, West Midlands. Educated at Conyers School and Teeside Polytechnic. Runs a marketing company. Liverpool councillor 2006-2014.
DREW DURNING (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Reading University. Online retailler and marketing consultant.
TED STRIKE (UKIP) Born Thornaby. Businessman and former fireman. Contested Stockton South 2010 for the Christian Party.
JACQUI LOVELL (Green) community psychologist.
STEVE WALMSLEY (Independents Against Social Injustice) Stockton councillor since 1999.
Comments - 253 Responses on “Stockton South”
  1. Worth bearing in mind that that 4% is not the Lib Dems’ “natural” vote share because in seats like this the party will already have been pretty heavily squeezed. The 4% holdouts will be the hardest to persuade, they will be people with very principled reasons why they aren’t voting Labour even if it let’s the Tories in.

    Worth bearing in mind in every marginal seat, actually.

  2. Stockton South, constituency voting intention:

    Con: 46% (-1)
    Lab 43% (-5)
    Brexit 7% (+7)
    Lib Dem: 3% (+1)

    via Survation
    , 09 Dec
    Changes. w/ GE2017

    Going to be tight here. If the difference between MRP and You Gov for this this seat then Tory majority of 50-80 is on.

  3. Survey of 425 adults. So this is within MoE.

    Also, if rumours are true then fieldwork from two days ago may already be out of date…

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)