Sheffield South East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7242 (17.4%)
Labour: 21439 (51.4%)
Lib Dem: 2226 (5.3%)
Green: 1117 (2.7%)
UKIP: 9128 (21.9%)
TUSC: 185 (0.4%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 12311 (29.5%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, South Yorkshire. Part of the Sheffield council area.

Main population centres: Sheffield, Beighton, Mosborough.

Profile: The post-industrial eastern part of the city, this has seen massive redevelopment over recent decades as the coal mining and steel making industries have declines, from massive council and private housing developments in the south-east of the city around Halfway and Waterthorpe to the building of the Meadowhall shopping centre, Don Valley Athletics Stadium and the (currently mothballed) Sheffield Airport in the eastern part of the city. Sheffield South-East also has a significant Muslim population, concentrated in the Darnall area.

Politics: This is the successor to the old Sheffield Attercliffe seat, renamed for the 2010 election. It is a safe Labour seat, represented by the party since 1935.


Current MP
CLIVE BETTS (Labour) Born 1950, Sheffield. Educated at King Edward VII School and Cambridge University. Former economist. Sheffield councillor 1976-1992. Contested Louth 1979. First elected as MP for Sheffield Attercliffe in 1992. Government whip 1997-2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7202 (17%)
Lab: 20169 (49%)
LDem: 9664 (23%)
BNP: 2345 (6%)
Oth: 2028 (5%)
MAJ: 10505 (25%)
2005*
Con: 5329 (14%)
Lab: 22250 (60%)
LDem: 6283 (17%)
UKIP: 1680 (5%)
Oth: 1477 (4%)
MAJ: 15967 (43%)
2001
Con: 5443 (15%)
Lab: 24287 (68%)
LDem: 5092 (14%)
UKIP: 1002 (3%)
MAJ: 18844 (53%)
1997
Con: 7119 (16%)
Lab: 28937 (65%)
LDem: 6973 (16%)
MAJ: 21818 (49%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Sheffield, Attercliffe

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATT SLEAT (Conservative)
CLIVE BETTS (Labour) See above.
GAIL SMITH (Liberal Democrat) Contested Sheffield South East 2010.
STEVEN WINSTONE (UKIP)
LINDA DUCKENFIELD (Green)
MATTHEW ROBERTS (English Democrat)
JEN BATTESBY (CISTA)
IAN WHITEHOUSE (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 90 Responses on “Sheffield South East”
  1. James
    “Down 3.0% in Barrow
    4.5% in Mansfield
    8.3% in Maidstone
    9.2% in Sheffield”

    Sheffield has obviously been discussed but in Barrow UKIP stood for the first time, in Maidstone a reasonably successful independent stood for the first time and in Mansfield UKIP, another independent and the Tories all stood for the first time.

  2. Council bye election results do show a tangible decline in the Labour vote over the last month. It’s not one election, it’s 18/21 (with the death of the Communist councillor in Fife, the increase of 0.7% in the Labour vote appears disappointing, even if it was a gain).

    I’m not going to speculate about the reason for this trend, but this should be of real concern to the Labour Party.

  3. Polltroll – I thought that initially, but then recalled that Labour are at rock bottom in Barrow, having had one of the largest swings against them in 2015.

    ie the sitting MP just withstood the tide there. With Corbyn as Leader it’ll be almost impossible.

  4. Cumbria will indeed be one of, if not THE worst area for Labour in the BR.

    For Barrow its a case of “how” bad will it be for Labour. Barrow will certainly become a notionally Tory seat but how big depends on how the boundaries are drawn. The most Lab friendly option would result in a notional Tory majority of about 400 so even smaller than Labs current majority or we could see the Tory gerrymander option which involves cramming as many rural wards in as you can which would knock it up to about 2,600. Likelihood is though we’ll see something in the middle which would result in a Tory notional about the same as Labs current majority of about 800.

  5. Actually just realised, the max the Tory notional majority in Barrow can be is about 1,500

  6. @rivers I was under the impression thst the Tory vote came from the retirement towns along the coast in seats like Clwyd West (I could be wrong though). Nevertheless adding the north of Montgomeryshire to parts of Clwyd and a coastal seat would create two seat that the Tories would be favoured in so hardly too bad for them there.

  7. Yes I am right I think about the coastal bits of Clwyd West being more Tory than the inland bits. At the last review I believe they tried to combine the coastal bits of Aberconwy and Clwyd West and I believe the notionals had it as reliably Tory. While the North Mongomeryshire/South Clwyd seat was a Tory seat on a low vote share (Lab in South Clwyd/ Lib Dem in Montgomeryshire)

  8. The fairly reliably Tory seat on the North Wales coast I believe was called Conwy and Colwyn (or something like that) and I would not be shocked at all if they tried this arrangement again but we’ll find out what they want to do Monday I guess.

  9. Rivers10

    Yes, Powys is too big for one seat. The previous draft Boundaries added the southern (more Lib Dem) parts to Brecon and Radnorshire and the northern (more Tory) parts to Clwyd South. The western parts were added to Ceredigion. I would expect something similar this time.

  10. Pepps
    The Tories obviously have big strength in the coastal retirement towns but that’s where all of Labs strength is too, in the southern rural wards Lab get nowhere while the Tories are often battling Plaid.

    The “Conwy and Colwyn” seat was a reliable Tory seat but a better prospect for Lab than the current Clwyd West and certainly not unwinnable. While the other two Tory seats Aberconwy and Vale of Clwyd are carved up completely. As I aid I think the Tories will go from 4 seats to 2 while Lab will go from 4 to 3.

  11. @rivers you are probably right
    Here is my guess at what the commission will do for Wales, we will find out how wrong I am tomorrow haha.

    1)Powys (B&R expanded North)
    2)Wrexham (expanded into eastern parts of Clwyd S)
    3)Denbigh and Welshpool (rest of Montgomeryshire, rest of Clwyd S, southern part of VoC)
    4)Flintshire East (A&D plus Mold and environs)
    5)Flintshire West and Ryhl (rest of Delyn, northern part of VoC)
    6)Conwy and Colwyn (coastal bits of Clwyd W and Aberconwy)
    7)Ynys Mon and Bangor (what it says on the tin. Notionally Plaid)
    8)Gwynedd and South Conwy (remainder of Gwynedd and Conwy authorities)
    9)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire (what it says on the tin)
    10)South Pembrokeshire (rest of Pembrokeshire and 4 wards from Carmarthenshire)
    11)Carmarthenshire (rest of Carmarthenshire except Llanelli town)
    12)Llanelli (takes area to the north of Swansea like Pontarddulais and Gorseinon)
    13)Swansea West and Gower (notionally Lab by 1,000-1,500 assuming my maths is correct lol)
    14)Swansea East
    15)Neath and Aberdare
    16)Ogmore and Aberavon
    17)Bridgend (moves north a bit gaining bits of Ogmore)
    18)Vale of Glamorgan (gains 2 wards)
    19)Rhondda (stretches south into the eastern parts of Ogmore)
    20)Pontypridd (takes the leftover bits of Cynon Valley and 3 wards from Western Cardiff)
    21)Cardiff West and Penarth
    22)Cardiff East
    23)Cardiff North (notionally Tory by ~500 although Tory vote would have been squeezed by Lib Dems in two wards)
    24)Newport (urban core united in one seat)
    25)Monmouthshire (all of Monmouthshire council area 2 rural wards from east Newport)
    26)Blaenau Gwent and Pontypool
    27)Cwmbran (southern parts of Torfaen, Risca and environs)
    28)Caerphilly
    29)Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (picks up areas around and including the town of Blackwood)

    Note this is the notionals for Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire. Lib Dem on a horrendously low vote share, Tories now somewhat competitive:
    Lib Dem: 14,195 (26.6%)
    Plaid: 11,832 (22.1%)
    Tory: 11,070 (20.7%)
    Labour: 6,832 (12.8%)
    UKIP: 5,503 (10.3%)
    Green: 2,659 (5.0%)
    Other: 1,348 (2.5%)

    So overall seat count for Wales
    Labour: 20 (-8)
    Tory: 5 (-3)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1 (=)

  12. Pepps
    Probably something in that ballpark yes, the exact wards used in many cases really makes a difference though.

    The only thing I’d say is the Ynys Mon and Bangor seat I’d expect to be notionally Lab if not reliably Lab. I’m not doubting your maths though, I’ve just had a look at Electoral Calculus’s notional results for the seat and in my humble opinion they make no sense. I actually know the Arfon seat very well (visited there as a kid a lot and have friends in Bangor Uni who I often visit) and EC have Plaid running Lab very close and in many cases beating them in the Bangor wards, that strikes me as lil bit odd but I’d be willing to accept it (Plaid do have councillors there after all) but then to get the 2015 result they have Lab opening up some quite impressive leads in some of the rural wards that I really can’t imagine have much in the way of Lab support (extremely remote in nature, everyone speaks Welsh etc)

    It was my understanding Lab strength was concentrated in Bangor and the rest of the seat was dominated by Plaid, EC have the vote much more evenly spread than I would have thought and consequently have gave you the notionals you quoted. I might be totally wrong though.

  13. Pepps
    Also is it just Wales reporting tomorrow or is England and or Scotland reporting as well? I know NI have already reported.

  14. England and Wales both reporting on Tuesday (13th). The Scottish commission website just says “September”

  15. Paul
    Ah thanks much

  16. Its also probably worth pointing out we probably shouldn’t get too excited by these proposals. Usually the BC’s first set of proposals are modified beyond all recognition during the consultation period and what the house ends up voting on is totally different, just look at the changes in the last review between what the BC proposed initially and post consultation.

  17. I’ve just made a few alterations as I realised I added part of Penarth to VoG and Cardiff can have exactly 3 seats no need to cross boundaries so I think this makes more sense:

    1)Powys (B&R expanded North)
    2)Wrexham (expanded into eastern parts of Clwyd S)
    3)Denbigh and Welshpool (rest of Montgomeryshire, rest of Clwyd S, southern part of VoC)
    4)Flintshire East (A&D plus Mold and environs)
    5)Flintshire West and Ryhl (rest of Delyn, northern part of VoC)
    6)Conwy and Colwyn (coastal bits of Clwyd W and Aberconwy)
    7)Ynys Mon and Bangor (what it says on the tin. Notionally Plaid)
    8)Gwynedd and South Conwy (remainder of Gwynedd and Conwy authorities)
    9)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire (what it says on the tin)
    10)South Pembrokeshire (rest of Pembrokeshire and 4 wards from Carmarthenshire)
    11)Carmarthenshire (rest of Carmarthenshire except Llanelli town)
    12)Llanelli (takes area to the north of Swansea like Pontarddulais and Gorseinon)
    13)Swansea West and Gower (notionally Lab by 1,000-1,500 assuming my maths is correct lol)
    14)Swansea East
    15)Neath and Aberdare
    16)Ogmore and Aberavon
    17)Bridgend (takes two Ogmore wards and 4 from VoG. Becomes notionally Tory by ~1,500)
    18)Barry and Penarth (rest of VoG authority. Notionally Tory by ~3,000.)
    19)Rhondda (stretches south into the eastern parts of Ogmore)
    20)Pontypridd (takes the leftover bits of Cynon Valley and 3 wards from Western Cardiff)
    21)Cardiff West
    22)Cardiff East
    23)Cardiff North (notionally Tory by ~6,100. Picks up the 3 rural wards in outskirts of Cardiff West and Cyncoed.)
    24)Newport (urban core united in one seat)
    25)Monmouthshire (all of Monmouthshire council area 2 rural wards from east Newport)
    26)Blaenau Gwent and Pontypool
    27)Cwmbran (southern parts of Torfaen, Risca and environs)
    28)Caerphilly
    29)Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (picks up areas around and including the town of Blackwood)

    Obviously Bridgend and Cardiff North now becomes significantly worse for Labour but the successor seat to Vale of Glamorgan (Barry and Penarth) is significantly better.

    So overall seat count is:
    Labour: 19 (-9)
    Tory: 6 (-2)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1

  18. Pepps
    Re V of G and Bridgend that’s what I did but I named the “Barry and Penarth” seat “East Glamorgan” instead.

    Also differed quite a bit in Cardiff, you do know there are a couple of more minimalist changes that can be made?

  19. Also out of curiosity how is it you only have Tories down 2? Even on your boundaries by my count their down three.

  20. @rivers sorry I had the number of seats that they had in the first place wrong (I think I was thinking pre 2015):

    It would be
    Labour:17 (-8)
    Tory: 8 (-3)
    Plaid: 3 (=)
    Lib Dem: 1 (=)

    Well the smallest amount of ward movements I can see in Cardiff is 6 (excluding the removal of Penarth). But it makes sense to switch Pentyrch and Craigiau with Llandaff North and Gabalfa because if the former two remained in West they would be completely isolated from the rest of the seat. Plus it makes sense to have 2 ‘urban core’ constituencies and one suburban one.

  21. Sorry 7 moves is the minimum.

  22. Pepps
    I don’t see how Pentyrch and Creigiau are isolated, unless you remove Radyr from West without removing the former for some reason which of course you don’t need to, just add Grangetown to Cardiff West then leave it alone.

    The issue then becomes what do you do with the rest of Cardiff, a couple of options all of which are acceptable to one degree or another.

    I just don’t see the need to have such a complete re-jig of Cardiff except for partisan reasons.

  23. Given the very large size of most Scottish council wards (in some cases in terms of population in other cases area in many cases both) I imagine the Scottish review will be a bit trickier and there will be an abundance of ward splitting which obviously makes the whole thing more complicated.

  24. Yes they are necessary (in my view they should be done decadely or thereabouts) but if it was me I would have given each county a certain amount of seats and then applied a quota level to the seats within said county (putting Rutland with Leicestershire and Herefordshire with Worcestershire). Sure you will get more variation in electorate size but you wouldn’t get any odd ‘county hopping’.

  25. Pepps
    I like that idea, I obviously would prefer if we just had straight PR but if we have to have FPTP (or some variant of PR that includes constituencies) then that seems the way to go about it.

  26. Scots apparently due to report on October 8th

  27. Since the death of Ronald Atkins, the oldest living former MP is now Sir Patrick Duffy, Labour MP for Colne Valley 1963–1966 and for Sheffield Attercliffe 1970–1992. He’s 100. As this is the successor seat to Sheffield Attercliffe, and he spent most of his time in Parliament representing it (rather than Colne Valley), I thought I’d post about it under this seat. He had quite an interesting career – see his Wikipedia:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Duffy_(British_politician)
    A moderate pro-European in the 1970s and 1980s, he voted for Brexit in 2016. A Catholic, he is also pro-life. Very ‘old Labour’, you might say. Lives in Doncaster, not far from Don Valley. In an interview with Catholic magazine The Tablet he was asked: “Does he believe Labour can win these seats back?”

    His answer: “They won’t all go back. I watched Boris Johnson in the election campaign, going to a Labour constituency in Grimsby and meeting workers in the fishing industry. They were all so friendly with him, and they went on to vote for him. I can’t see Keir Starmer having that kind of camaraderie with traditional Labour voters. He may be forensic in court and in the House of Commons, and of course he is infinitely better than Jeremy Corbyn, but it all comes down as I have already said to electability.”

    Duffy may be one of the only surviving former MPs who saw wartime service. Jill Knight is another.

  28. I think most of what he says is fair but I think the hammering home of the “Labour losing the working classes” narrative conceals the other thing that is happening in British politics, the Tories losing the middle classes. This is a long-term trend which was masked in 2019 by Labour’s crap performance all round, but it was pretty obvious in 2017. The seats that the Tories lost to Labour in that election included bougie places like Canterbury and Stroud, the handful that went the other way were archetypal “crap towns”.

  29. You’re right Polltroll although I will point out that Canterbury is actually nowhere near as nice as it sounds I was quite taken aback when I first visited there.

    However whilst what you say is true it hasn’t gone full circle yet. Whilst working class towns like Brownhills, Brigg, Clacton, Cannock, Pittsea, Canvey and Cleethorpes are now the Tories strongest in the country, Labour still aren’t even competitive in the sort of affluent Democrats in the US now take for granted – your ‘kind yuppie’ places which are still Tory – albeit by much slimmer margins that a couple of decades back – which yes was masked by Labour’s drubbing in 2019

  30. I wonder what Duffy makes of Sheffield South East today. It’s not hugely different from Sheffield Attercliffe but Mosborough and Beighton were probably some of safest parts of the constituency when they were MP. Now they easily hold the most anti Labour feeling. A culmination of what has already been mentioned above and anger toward the Labour council mismanagement of Amey

  31. Labour now rely on Darnall. Their majority is almost soley on votes in Darnall and while Corbyn went down poorly in mining villages like Beighton and Mosborough, Labour’s vote in Darnall was huge. Under the new boundaries its likely this seat will take in some of Burgreave from my constituency. A similarly diverse place like this will help Labour even if Mosborough and Beighton swings further away from us

  32. It doesn’t surprise me that Labour rely on Darnall – isn’t it one of the most heavily Asian (Pakistani?) areas of the city? I actually used to live in this constituency, as I spent a few months in Beighton back in 2008. Coming from being a student in the centre and the Ecclesall Road area, it was a bit of a culture shock I think. I have a feeling that the only time I’ve ever been to a working men’s club was in Beighton back then. It’s fairly white working-class, although also a little bit suburban in character. There’s some middle-class housing. Maybe that’s the slow gentrification of ex-mining villages.

    What is Amey?

    Are the Tories losing the middle-classes? Maybe in urban seats, yes, though not always to Labour. In some areas it’s the Lib Dems. If the LDs were the main opposition party in the UK, perhaps we would see a mass of affluent seats voting for them rather than the Tories.

    I’m not surprised that Canterbury isn’t as nice as it sounds. I’ve never been there, but I maintain that Labour wouldn’t be winning in a seat that was uniformly desirable. Hampstead and Kilburn is probably a seat where Labour do okay in Hampstead Town (where the Tories and Lib Dems are usually stronger), but really pile up the votes in Kilburn. Kensington was one of the ‘shock’ gains in 2017, but it’s more like the super-rich vs the very poor. The former don’t vote Labour on the whole. Overall, I think the urban middle classes are more inclined to Labour, but not the suburban or rural middle class.

    A lot (if not all) of those ‘red wall’ seats have a middle-class base, something which gets lost when those seats are just thought of as working class. But their values won’t be urban or cosmopolitan. More like a traditional suburban or small-town Tory voter. Own home, own car, steady job – if not retired.

  33. Amey are the company that the council outsourced maintenance to. They are the ones who’ve cut the trees down. But their unpopularity in this part of Sheffield is the poor maintenance of street lighting

  34. Thanks for clarifying. Labour seem to lose out more at local elections in Sheffield over things like that.

  35. When they were in opposition in the 80s and 90s – Hampstead & Highgate as it was back then – was arguably the only affluent seat Labour held in England – and they only won that in 92.

    Now they have a score of such seats – obviously your Batterseas and Putneys but beyond London too – Bristol North West, Hove, Sheffield Hallam, Birmingham Edgbaston, Cambridge, Sefton, Wirral West

    Trademark is right – there’s a currently a big split between the urban and rural middle class – with the surbubanites somewhere in the middle. My guess is that with Tory support becoming more Trump like, Labour could find fruitful pickings.

  36. And I’m sure Glenda Jackson’s candidacy helped Labour to win Hampstead and Highgate in 1992. Interestingly, they had only won the previous Hampstead seat (with that name) once, in 1966. Not in 1945.

    I think it may well be true that since the Blair era, the urban, small ‘l’ liberal middle-class is more pro-Labour in seats like the ones you mention. No doubt all those seats have a base of working-class voters too, and some will have a large ethnic minority and/or student population, which also helps Labour.

    I think Leave and Remain may well be a new cleavage in the electorate, with support for the parties coalescing along those lines. Starmer is far more acceptable to Remain voters, many of whom would have been put off by Corbyn. However, Corbyn won a number of those more middle-class seats in 2017, and Johnson didn’t win them all back in 2019. He only got Kensington back on the split vote.

  37. I read an article the other day that roughly speaking reckoned that 20% of the UK voting population had changed their voting preference in a general election from one party to another. Whilst that might not seem like that much it’s a pretty astonishing figure and it pretty much splits 50/50 – as the referendum did – from Tory to Labour and vice versa.

    The Tory party has become a lot more blue collar though and I reckon a good proportion of Tory voters – particularly those in red wall seats – would have been cheering the Trump mob on during their assault on Washington

    That would have been unthinkable 20 years ago for the party of law & order

  38. 20% as a result of the EU referendum that is

  39. “The Tory Party has become a lot more blue-collar and I reckon a good proportion of Tory voters – particularly those in red wall seats – would have been cheering the Trump mob on during their assault on Washington.”

    There’s no real evidence that the thugs last Wednesday were particularly blue-collar. At least one was the CEO of his own company. One must be careful of falling into the Ken Loach worldview that the working classes are faultless angels, but equally it’s rather blinkered to assume that only oiks from the lower orders could be capable of such barbarism.

  40. A lot of the thugs would have been self employed, presuming they work at all. A lot more of them will certainly will unemployed now – following Wednesday’s assault.

    What I find particularly troubling is pictures of the security forces paid to defend Capitol Hill effectively partying with the Trump scum. If this was how they typically handled protests then okay, but as we all know when BLM protested – and they never attempted to capture congress – in the summer the security forces chose pepper spray and live ammunition

    The fact that this had barely been mentioned shows how racist the US really is

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