2015 Result:
Conservative: 14585 (34.8%)
Labour: 8184 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 9344 (22.3%)
Green: 3145 (7.5%)
UKIP: 5595 (13.4%)
TUSC: 235 (0.6%)
Independent: 716 (1.7%)
Others: 99 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 5241 (12.5%)
Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat
Geography: South East, Hampshire. Part of Portsmouth council area.
Main population centres: Portsmouth.
Profile: Portsmouth is a densely populated city on the south coast, technically situated on a island though the numerous causeways mean it is effectively a peninsula. It has a strong naval history as the home of the largest Royal Navy base, with defence the main local employer. Portsmouth South contains the main naval base, the docks and shipyards and many of the post war council estates like Buckland and Portsea. It also contains Portsmouth University, and is the more student heavy of the two Portsmouth seats.
Politics: Historically a Conservative seat, Portsmouth South was first won by Mike Hancock as the SDP candidate in the 1984 by-election following the death of Bonnor Pink. Hancock was not able to hold it at the subsequent general election, but continued to fight the seat, becoming leader of Portsmouth council in 1989, unsuccessfully standing again in 1992 and finally regaining the seat in 1997. He remained the MP until 2015 but ended his career in disgrace, suspended from the Liberal Democrats and standing against them as an Independent after allegations he had made inappropriate sexual approaches to a constituent. The Conservatives regained the seat.
Current MP
FLICK DRUMMOND (Conservative) Educated at Hull University. Former insurance broker. Former Winchester councillor. Contested Southampton Itchen 2005, Portsmouth South 2010. First elected as MP for Portsmouth South in 2015.
Past Results
2010
| Con: |
13721 (33%) |
| Lab: |
5640 (14%) |
| LDem: |
18921 (46%) |
| UKIP: |
876 (2%) |
| Oth: |
2106 (5%) |
| MAJ: |
5200 (13%) |
2005*
| Con: |
13685 (34%) |
| Lab: |
8714 (22%) |
| LDem: |
17047 (42%) |
| UKIP: |
928 (2%) |
| MAJ: |
3362 (8%) |
2001
| Con: |
11396 (29%) |
| Lab: |
9361 (24%) |
| LDem: |
17490 (45%) |
| UKIP: |
321 (1%) |
| Oth: |
647 (2%) |
| MAJ: |
6094 (16%) |
1997
| Con: |
16094 (31%) |
| Lab: |
13086 (25%) |
| LDem: |
20421 (40%) |
| Oth: |
465 (1%) |
| MAJ: |
4327 (8%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Demographics
2015 Candidates
FLICK DRUMMOND (Conservative) Educated at Hull University. Former insurance broker. Former Winchester councillor. Contested Southampton Itchen 2005, Portsmouth South 2010.
SUE CASTILLON (Labour) Educated at Burton on Trent Girls High School and Brunel University. Family group worker.
GERALD VERNON-JACKSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1962, Hampshire. Portsmouth councillor since 2003, Leader of Portsmouth council since 2004.
STEVE HARRIS (UKIP) Born 1948, Aldershot. Former US Navy officer. Contested South East 2009 European elections.
IAN MCCULLOCH (Green) Delivery driver.
DON GERRARD (Justice and Anti Corruption) Born Southampton. Educated at Cambridge University. Retired solicitor. Contested East Hampshire 2010, Hampshire Police Commissioner election 2012.
MIKE HANCOCK (Independent) Born 1946, Portsmouth. Engineer. Portsmouth councillor since 1970, originally elected for the Labour party he defected to the SDP in 1981 and subsequently joined the Liberal Democrats. Leader of Portsmouth council 1989-1997. Hampshire county councillor 1973-1997.Contested Portsmouth South 1983 for the SDP. SDP MP for Portsmouth South 1984 by-election until 1987. Contested Portsmouth South again 1992 for the Liberal Democrats, Isle of Wight and Hampshire South 1994. MP for Portsmouth South 1997-2015. A colourful figure, Hancock had a four year affair with an aide who MI5 suspected of being a Russian spy and was arrested for indecent assault in 2010 over accusations that he had behaved inappropriately towards a constituent. The charges were subsequently dropped, but the constituent began civil action against Hancock in 2013. Hancock resigned the Liberal Democrat whip in June 2013 to contest the claim. Awarded the CBE in 1992.
SEAN HOYLE (TUSC) RMT organiser.
Links
‘This result has been little commented on but was in historical context was at least as remarakable those in Kensington and Canterbury’
Totally agree – big win for Labour here
It was quite extraordinary this result.
I think the same has happened in Scotland, but this is surely the only English constituency to be won by three different parties in 2010, 2015, and 2017.
Looking back over the constituency pages a few years ago , there was a great deal of speculation of Mike Hancock having to resign, and a shock UKIP gain here in a by-election.
There’s a chance that might happen in Southport too, assuming Labour support remains strong (or improves).
2015 – Lib Dem, 2017 – Conservative, next election – Labour?
Falmouth & Camborne (and successors) is the obvious example of a constituency held by 3 parties in 3 elections: 2001 – Labour, 2005 – Lib Dem, 2010 – Conservative
Cllr Julie Bird (Fratton ward) has defected to the Conservatives here.
“My move from UKIP to Independent to the Conservatives is a natural one.”
Penny Mordaunt is new defence sec.
She will remain Women and Equality Minster (perhaps that is an hint a Man will replace her at DFID.)
Wrong thread.
This could be one of the more interesting seats on election night.
Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention:
LDEM: 30% (+13) CON: 27% (-14) LAB: 24% (-17) BREX: 14% (+14) via @Survation, 28 – 29 Oct
The changes are versus the 2017 general election.
New constituency poll:
Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention:
LAB: 46% (+5) CON: 38% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-6) BREX: 2% (+2)
via @DeltapollUK, 22 – 27 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017
Britain Elects
Portsmouth South, constituency voting intention:
Lab: 46% (+5)
Con: 38% (-)
Lib: 11% (-6)
Brex: 2% (+2)
via DeltapollUK
22 – 27 Nov
Changs with 2017.
Fits with MRP putting Labour ahead here.