Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)

2015 Result:
Conservative: 1215 (7.6%)
Labour: 4560 (28.6%)
Lib Dem: 456 (2.9%)
SNP: 8662 (54.3%)
Christian: 1045 (6.6%)
MAJORITY: 4102 (25.7%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Highlands and islands. The whole of the Comhairle nan Eilean Siar area.

Main population centres: Stornoway.

Profile: Na h-Eileanan an lar covers the Western Isles (the seat was called Western Isles until 2005). It covers the Outer Hebridies, the further reaches of the archipeligo off the coast of north-western Scotland, including the islands of Lewis and Harris, North Uist, South Uist, Barra, Benbecula, Scalpay, Great Bernera, Grimsay and the uninhabited St Kilda. The only town on the Outer Hebridies is the fishing port of Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis, from where ferries sail to the mainland. Stornoway also has an airport with services to the mainland. The seat is socially as well as geographically somewhat isolated: Gaelic is widely spoken, the Western Isles are the only area in Scotland were over 60% of people speak Gaelic. Sunday Observance is also still widely observed on the Islands, particularly in the Northern islands, with a widespread refusal to trade or travel on the Sabbath, due to the continuing strength of the Free Church and Free Presbyterian Church. In 2006 considerable controversey was caused with the opening of a ferry service to Lewis that operated on Sundays.

Politics: Na h-Eileanan an lar has the smallest electorate of any seat in the country with just over 20,000 voters, only a third of the size of most constituencies. Attempts to link the counstituency with others have always foundered on the geographical size of the area and problems of travel and communications for the MP. Politically the seat has been a marginal between the SNP and Labour since the war. In both 2005 and 2010 it was one of only a few seats where the Conservatives failed to retain their deposit. In the 1975 referendum on continued membership of the European Union, the Western Isles and Shetland Isles were the only areas to vote no.


Current MP
ANGUS MACNEIL (Scottish National Party) Born 1970, Barra. Educated at Nicholson Institute, Stornoway and Strathclyde University. Former teacher and BBC worker. Contested Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber 2001. First elected as MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar in 2005. A native speaker of Gaelic. MacNeil brough the original complaint that lead to the police investigation into "loans for peerages".
Past Results
2010
Con: 647 (4%)
Lab: 4838 (33%)
LDem: 1097 (7%)
SNP: 6723 (46%)
Oth: 1412 (10%)
MAJ: 1885 (13%)
2005
Con: 610 (4%)
Lab: 4772 (34%)
LDem: 1096 (8%)
SNP: 6213 (45%)
Oth: 1145 (8%)
MAJ: 1441 (10%)
2001*
Con: 1250 (9%)
Lab: 5924 (45%)
LDem: 849 (6%)
SNP: 4850 (37%)
Oth: 286 (2%)
MAJ: 1074 (8%)
1997
Con: 1071 (7%)
Lab: 8955 (56%)
LDem: 495 (3%)
SNP: 5379 (33%)
Oth: 206 (1%)
MAJ: 3576 (22%)

2015 Candidates
MARK BROWN (Conservative) Financial services manager.
ALASDAIR MORRISON (Labour) Born 1968, Stornoway. Educated at Nicolson Institute. Journalist. Contested MSP for Western Isles 1999-2007.
RUARAIDH FERGUSON (Liberal Democrat)
ANGUS MACNEIL (SNP) See above.
JOHN CORMACK (Christian)
Links
Comments - 626 Responses on “Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)”
  1. To follow up on a couple of points others have made:

    TM: “You use the NHS and you’re going to vote Tory? Come on, think!” I agree that this gets tiring. For a person who spends so much time talking to working-class Tories in a professional capacity, he has precious little idea what makes them tick.

    Matt Wilson: “He admits to flirting with the Lib Dems and the Greens during the Blair years but then spends five years yearning for an electable Labour Party – this makes him seem fickle.” I disagree, changing your mind when circumstances change is not fickle, if anything it is never changing your mind on anything (like a certain former leader of the Labour Party) that is irrational. Moreover, I think this is the sort of complacent attitude many in the Labour Party display about “owning” certain voters, which is part of what has got them into so much electoral trouble.

  2. Glad you agree with me – Harris is very much a product of the metropolitan bubble (Manchester if not London!) and it sometimes shows.

    Simon Jenkins wrote a good article during the election saying the election would be about identity, not money:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/28/election-identity-money-tories-labour-public-spending
    He’s right. People value security more than money, I would argue. Just because someone is having issues with the NHS, it doesn’t mean they’re going to ignore all their other concerns about Labour.

  3. I’m sorry I have more respect for people who develop their own ideas and beliefs, then making the argument for what they believe. I don’t think it’s complacency to argue for what you believe. I run around every year going door to door doing just that. I don’t consider myself complacent I find it a little daft to be told that by someone online.

    I think it’s complacent to change your views to fit with a group of swing voters and ignore everyone else in a hope they’ll vote for you

  4. Matt: okay, maybe “complacent” was the wrong word, I know you work very hard (moreso than us armchair critics) to make the change you want to see. I guess the point I was trying to make is that folk are free thinkers and you shouldn’t take their votes for granted just because you would expect people with that kind of worldview to be Labour voters.

  5. Picking up from Mark and Tim’s gambit on next Tuesday’s election:

    I’ll probably update – if I find time – on the day.

    Wisconsin – TRUMP (toss-up)
    Pennsylvania– TRUMP
    New Hamps– TRUMP (toss-up)
    Minnesota – Biden (toss-up)
    Arizona – Biden (toss-up)
    Georgia – TRUMP
    Florida – TRUMP
    Michigan – Biden (fairly comfortably)
    Colorado – Biden (not even close)
    N Carolina – TRUMP
    Maine – Biden (not toss-up but closer than people think)
    Maine 2nd district – TRUMP
    Iowa – TRUMP (comfortably)
    Ohio – TRUMP (comfortably)
    Texas – TRUMP (hard one to gauge!)
    Neb. 2nd – Biden
    Nevada (got missed off Mark’s list) – TRUMP
    New Mexico (got missed off Mark’s list) – Biden (closer than people are noticing)

  6. The rust belt states may have low propensity voters coming out for Trump in unprecedented numbers – political pundits over there seem to forget how many more of the atypical Trump voters there are who didn’t bother last time when they talk about him having lost the suburban part of his coalition, as if it’s an unfillable gap. Yes he sprung a surprise with low propensity voters last time – but there’s lots more of them (in addition to the ‘true conservatives’ who didn’t like Trump but have warmed to him over SCOTUS picks and other issues such as freedom of conscience where Trump has come down pretty consistently on the conservative side after all.

    So predicting Trump wins in spite of polls in the mid-west states that handed him victory last time is not that difficult for me – yes it’s a bit of a hunch, but on a real point I feel.

    OTOH, predicting the southern border states I find almost impossible. They are apparently evolving in the Democrats’ direction, but I’m just not sure whether these too, might bring out large numbers of low propensity voters – or even regular independents who are with Trump on border issues.

    So they may also surprise to the upside for Trump (I’m not at all sure they will, but was a factor in predicting Nevada for Trump), but for quite different reasons to the states further North that do so.

    To illustrate the point, I believe it’s these states that hold the greatest potential for shock wins in either direction – e.g. Texas for Biden, or New Mexico for Trump.

  7. If Trump does pull record voters – esp white voters but some sub-sections of Latinos – in the southern border states, we could see a scenario where Georgia and even South Carolina (ok, that’s going out on a bit of a limb) turn blue for the first time in decades whilst Arizona stays red and Trump wins Nevada and – at a stretch – New Mexico as well.

    This is not what I am predicting, but is giving pause for reflection.

  8. It’s true that whilst Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court might put off some wavering independents these could be offset by engaging his conservative base – as many conservative said they felt unable to vote for him in 2016. They might do so now. Having said all that Biden opened up his double digit lead not on Trump catching corona but on the passing of Ginsburg and Trump’s response – so it’s questionable how much of an impact it will have

    I also worry about events in Philadelphia. Yet again police shoot dead an unarmed black man and protests turn into riots. Trump will no doubt try and tie this to Biden – and to win the election I really think Biden needs all 3 of the rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as despite being comfortably ahead nationally his lead is beginning to evaporate in states like Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.

    Biden still favourite but I have been surprised by the amount of support for Trump on the ground in the swing states

  9. Just clarify TRUMP (tossup) means its close but you think Trump might be leading? If so NH and Neveda are bold predictions

    Im not all that shocked by the ground swell for Trump. This must be the first election where the right has basically told their votes not to vote by mail and vote in person. We might see the highest level of in person voting for a long time

  10. T.y GRUMPY for your entry. Ok we’ll include Nevada and New Mexico, although NM most ppl would say isn’t close and Biden ought to win comfortably. And also NH is a longshot for TRUMP and is the boldest of your picks but I agree that DJT could win there.

    I’ll write out all the selections next Monday night…think we’ve got 4 entries now.

  11. And Nevada (which is closer than NH)

  12. I don’t think Grumpy understands that this is a place for serious debate and predictions (with reference to polls), not a wish list of what he wants to happen. His entire post is trolling of the highest order and should be ignored.

  13. I agree with Matt

    Even if Trump wins the election, I struggle to think he will win Nevada and certainly not New Hampshire.

    I do though think I might have to revise my predictions on Florida, Arizona and North Carolina which means Trump’s path to victory lies in winning one of the three rust belt states he flipped in 2016 – and he doesn’t need all of them

    Bottom line – it’s down to Pennsylvania, which is Biden’s to lose but even a couple of weeks back this path didn’t seem open to Trump.

  14. Dems won both NH and Neveda in 2016. If they lost those then bloody hell

  15. I don’t think it’s THAT unlikely he wins both NH and NV. Would rate it around a 20% chance of him winning both. NM is stretching credulity though. But again not out of the question like say, CA or NY.

  16. 20% seems high to me. They were considered must wins for Trump in 2016 and he won without them. Don’t really see he needs them anymore than he did then. Also given odds on Trump winning the election isn’t even 20%, i don’t know id put him winning states he doesn’t need would be a high probability

  17. To clarify, if you look I predicted Biden wins in NM – and I doubt it’s got enough recent attention from the GOP to tilt it their way even if it ever was close enough to be in play.

    Though stranger things have happened.

    I do have very serious doubts about my prediction on NH I must admit, when you look at the size of Biden’s lead in SOME of the polls there, and may well revise them.

    Whilst it’s also true that Trump may not win Nevada, polls do more consistently show single-digit Biden leads there and my opinion is that if Trump hasn’t won Nevada then he definitely hasn’t won the ‘must win’ states elsewhere to give him another 4 years. In other words, he’s definitely more likely to win Nevada than Michigan and Wisconsin IMO – though DJT could conceivably hold onto Pennsylvania, Florida and even Arizona if he’s lucky, without getting over the line in Nevada.

  18. Bottom line is, that whilst the polls – even if they are accurate – do favour Biden, the polling in the close states does NOT reflect the same swing to Dems from 2016 that the national polls show.

    I know it would be unprecedented, but it may well be that to even narrowly win the electoral college Biden needs to be >5% ahead in the national vote with the way his support his spread.

    Cutting Republican majorities in half in every southern state and piling up votes in California, doesn’t win you the White House if you don’t win enough of the key races.

  19. Nevada:

    Polls carried out in September and October all show a Biden lead, but these are the % margins (most recently published first):

    1
    4
    6
    9
    2
    6
    6
    5
    1
    4
    10
    11
    4

    Whereas New Hampshire for the same period was between 3% and 14% leads – and the 3% was very much the outlier, though it was from one of the ‘A’ rated polling companies.

    Above courtesy of 538 site.

  20. Range of Biden leads in variety of close states over the same period, for comparison (note the minus numbers for some states, meaning the range includes Trump leads in polls in some states):

    Alaska (yes, really): 3-10%
    Arizona: -4-10%
    Colorado: 6-23% (don’t really regard this as a swing state this election, but it was on Mark’s list)
    Florida: -5-11%
    Georgia: -5-7%
    Iowa: -7-5%
    ME-2: -9-9%
    Michigan: -4-13%
    Minnesota: 3-14%
    Missouri: -11 – -2%
    Montana: -13 – -2% (most recent are the closest)
    Nebraska: -6 – -5% (but distinct lack of statewide polling)
    NE-2: 6-11%
    NE-1: no polls last two months, but the only one there is shows DJT only 2 points ahead!
    New Mexico: 8-15% (yes it does look a stretch for DJT!)
    N Carolina: -3-7%
    Ohio: -6-5%
    Pennsylvania: -3-13%
    S Carolina: -10 – -1%
    Texas: -7-3%
    Wisconsin: 0-17%

  21. In short, the difference between a narrow Trump win in the electoral college and a Biden landslide in the same, is not very much in terms of actual votes by comparison.

  22. CORRECTION!

    Alaska should read -3 – -10%

  23. What is bizarre is that Biden had bigger leads in sunbelt states like Arizona and North Carolina during the summer when his national lead over Trump was narrower than what it is now.

    One pundit did though say that the big increase in turn out makes individual even those which lean more one way than the other, harder to predict.

  24. The most interesting state for me personally is Texas. It is still leaning towards Trump but the huge turnout there will throw up a few surprises at the district/ county level. That it’s even in play is bad news for the Republicans.

  25. I agree – Texas could be the shock of the night and Democrats have been quietly confident of causing an upset since late summer. Huge turnout surely benefits them

    Still doomsday scenario would see Trump hold all the sunbelt states and thus make Pennsylvania the decider. It could still go that way

  26. There was talk of Hillary taking Texas

    Back to Scotland. Indy poll today shows 12 point independence lead

  27. I’m thinking Trump’ll doing better than expected.

  28. My latest prediction which is unlikely to change:

    Headlines:
    Trump wins!
    Trump retains Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Wins Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio to take him over the majority to victory 298 to 240.

    Arizona – Biden
    Colorado – Biden
    Florida – TRUMP
    Georgia – TRUMP
    Iowa – TRUMP
    Maine – Biden
    Maine 2nd – TRUMP
    Minnesota – Biden
    Michigan – Biden
    Neb. 2nd – Biden
    Nevada – TRUMP
    New Hamps – TRUMP
    New Mexico – Biden
    N Carolina – TRUMP
    Ohio – TRUMP
    Penn.– TRUMP
    Texas – TRUMP
    Wisconsin – TRUMP

  29. I’m not sure quite what you think Trump’s going to pull out the bag between now and Tuesday unless of course the polls are completely wrong. Seldom does lightening strike twice and typically if pollsters f*** it up at one election, they tend to get it there or thereabouts at the next one.

  30. There has thought gone into this. Yes I’m saying the polls are wrong. But just look at the polls in these areas. Fairly close, most within MOEs. And Trump, in many States, outperformed his polling in battleground and swing States.

    I’m guessing the Trump “silent majority” voters are being underestimated. I think Biden is thought of as unimpressive by a significant amount of the dnks and soft Dem voters.

    I think the thought of Harris as President is also a factor that will switch voters. Increasing & surprising numbers of Latinx, Hispanic and BAME will vote Trump.

    I also think an underestimated amount of people will actually think..” I’m gonna really miss the Donald, he’s fun”…& vote for him.

    Most of this in unscientific but it’s my predictions.

  31. Also Trump has more of an optmistic beat to his campaign and style and we know from recent history that time and time again ppl plump for optmistim over a negative looking and sounding presentation.

  32. Tim – the polls don’t, of course, have to be “completely wrong” for the above prediction to happen. Biden could win the popular vote by 5% (within the m/e of an 8% poll lead) and still lose.

    Mark F is right in that the % of black, Hispanic etc voters voting Trump is higher than in 2016 – although I admit it’s from a low base eg perhaps 8% to 15% amongst black voters.

    IMHO it’s 60/40 in Biden’s favour ie only just and a mistake Dems appear to be making is new voters [or extra votes as famously happened during the EU Ref]. By that they mean young voters, whereas many of this cohort [people who didn’t vote in 2016 but intend to last time] interviewed have said they’ll vote Trump eg in Texas.

    So whilst he undoubtedly infuriates liberals, he does so precisely because he did what he claimed and doubled down on the rhetoric v China, the EU, Nato £, BLM etc. That makes him a hate figure amongst most graduates, but it’s also inspired some who share his worldview (patriotic, America first, pro-Life, etc) to go and vote for him on Tuesday because he has delivered SC Justices etc.

    Indeed of Evangelicals, I think it was c 75% last time (as many understandably had misgivings about him as a man), but a poll the other day showed 87% of those intend to vote for him this time.

    He’ll clearly lose white voters (and the proportion in the suburbs who hold their nose and stick with him or switch will be crucial), but he’ll also gain some.

    Acc to Michael Moore the pollsters haven’t corrected for their 2016 State poll failings, but then it’d be almost impossible to do so in rural areas or with people who don’t trust the ‘deep State’ calling them.

  33. Of course the polls don’t have to be completely wrong but in New Hampshire, for example, which Mark has down as a Trump win, Biden has been polling double-digit leads for the past three weeks – so this prediction would have to be way out for Mark’s prediction to bear out. Trump is now evens in Florida,Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina – which is an improvement – but even if he wins all of them, it still won’t be enough, unless Pennsylvania comes to his rescue. Wisconsin and Michigan look as good as gone

    Also, all the evidence does suggest that the greater turn out is likely to be amongst minority and other voters inspired by things like black lives matter, as opposed to hillbillies and rednecks wanting to endorse Trump, and what’s more relevant is that these voters tend to be concentrated in places like Texas, Florida and Arizona – states the Republicans need to win

    As for Biden, I think he’s very much yesterday’s man, ill equipped to deal with the harsh realities of the 21st century president. He’s a vast improvement on the incumbent but I would have rather the Democrats when with a slick, sharp, charismatic, cool figure in the Kennedy/Clinton/Obama mould although nobody except Beto Rourke is that type of figure and he couldn’t really run after narrowly losing in the Texas senate race to the vile Ted Cruz

  34. I have to laugh at Trump supporters being described as the ‘silent majority’. They never shut the fuck up!

  35. Ha ha ha. Nice one. I’ve reined in my Trump wins and EC total, e.g I don’t have him winning MI and WI. Final prediction from me Tues morning.

    If you want to enter the £10 prediction competition would you please use this template. You can just enter your electoral votes totals, if you don’t want to do each State. Ty gd luck!

    Arizona –
    Colorado –
    Florida –
    Georgia –
    Iowa –
    Maine –
    Maine 2nd –
    Minnesota –
    Michigan –
    Neb. 2nd –
    Nevada –
    New Hamps –
    New Mexico –
    N Carolina –
    Ohio –
    Penn.–
    Texas –
    Wisconsin –

    Total electoral college votes:
    TRUMP – 
    Biden    –

  36. Tim – “All the evidence does suggest…”

    It does not. Indeed Dems are today worried about the black vote which hasn’t yet turned out in Philly etc.

    The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has just endorsed Trump, including because the B-H ticket would give in to the, “bullies and the woke who would tear down our history…” [tbf they criticise Trump’s manner and lies, but say we need someone tough]

    As for being, ‘inspired by’ BLM, the last 2 polls show only 25% backing them. Whilst almost 30% thought Trump had been right and wrong re the protests, 45% said Trump hadn’t been tough enough!

  37. Arizona – Close but BIDEN
    Colorado – BIDEN (by at least 10%)
    Florida – Too close to call- will update tmr
    Georgia – Super close but BIDEN
    Iowa – closeish but TRUMP
    Maine – BIDEN
    Maine 2nd – BIDEN
    Minnesota – BIDEN
    Michigan – BIDEN
    Neb. 2nd – BIDEN
    Nevada – BIDEN
    New Hamps – BIDEN
    New Mexico – BIDEN (by at least 10%)
    N Carolina – close but BIDEN
    Ohio – TRUMP
    Penn.– BIDEN
    Texas – close but TRUMP
    Wisconsin – BIDEN

  38. Further to the above (these are not predictions, more ideas that I’m putting out there):

    If Trump outperforms the polls and had a better than expected night: the only potential Clinton states I see him flipping are Nevada and Minnesota (even these are a stretch). His best bet is to simply repeat what he did 2016.

    If Biden outperforms the polls: the results in South Carolina, Missouri and Montana could be closer than expected.

  39. The Economist magazine prediction:

    Chance of winning the electoral college:
    Biden 96%
    Trump 4%

    Electoral college votes:
    Biden 350
    Trump 188

  40. 538 give 11% likelihood win for Trump and 89% for Biden.

    That’s down from about a 30% likelihood given by them to Trump prior to the 2016 election.

    However, they’re at pains to point out that many polls are well within the MOE in specific states, or close to, meaning that they don’t have to be that badly wrong (or have late deciders breaking for Trump, which is likely since why wouldn’t they vote for him if they haven’t ruled him out earlier after all they know about him?) for Trump to win.

    One of their writers says a Trump win would be a surprise rather than a shock, though I think it really wouldn’t be a surprise even if you accept that Biden is the clear favourite.

    There’s just not that much in it in the battleground states, as my next post will show – and that’s if the polls DON’T have systematic errors this time, let alone if the irregular (quiet??) voters turn out for Trump as some who predicted last time correctly are predicting this time also.

  41. “Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is narrow
    Forecasted vote share margins for Biden, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast as of Nov. 1

    STATE MARGIN
    New Mexico +12.8
    Virginia +12.1
    Colorado +12.0
    Maine +11.9
    New Hampshire +10.4
    Minnesota +9.0
    Michigan +8.2
    Wisconsin +7.7
    Nevada +5.9
    Pennsylvania +4.8
    Arizona +2.9
    Florida +2.1
    North Carolina +1.9
    Georgia +0.8
    Ohio -0.0
    Texas -1.8
    Iowa -1.9”

    Worth remembering that the above margins are averages – there’s at least SOME polls showing very tight races or Trump leads all the way up the list to Michigan, and even the odd close poll for ones above that too.

    P.S. Maine and Nebraska’s 2nd districts are also close races.

  42. Moreover, because polling errors are somewhat correlated from state to state, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he would no longer be a favorite in states such as Florida and Georgia — where he’s narrowly ahead now — because it would be a sign that Trump had outperformed his polls again. Of course, this only goes so far: In 2016, Trump massively outperformed his polls in the Midwest, but there wasn’t much of a polling error in Arizona. Still, losing Pennsylvania would take Biden from favorite to underdog.

    Pennsylvania will tell us a lot
    Biden’s chances of winning if he wins or loses Pennsylvania, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast as of Nov. 1

    BIDEN’S % CHANCES OF WINNING
    STATE IF HE WINS PENNSYLVANIA / IF HE LOSES PENNSYLVANIA…
    Minnesota >99% 76%
    Michigan >99 73
    Wisconsin 98 66
    Maine 95 63
    Nevada 92 57
    New Hampshire 95 53
    Arizona 76 38
    Florida 74 27
    Georgia 63 23
    North Carolina 74 18
    Texas 41 10
    Iowa 43 6
    Ohio 58 4

    Sorry table doesn’t transpose very well!

    But very, very illuminating – not least that states like NH become toss-ups more than Michigan and Wisconsin if Pennsylvania goes to Trump – must be something to do with correlation in the demographics I assume.

  43. “It does not. Indeed Dems are today worried about the black vote which hasn’t yet turned out in Philly etc.”

    Very true – Dems are very worried in some states at least. It appears that their ‘voters of colour’ are not turning out in much higher numbers than they did for Clinton in some places, especially Florida but in other places too.

    There is considered a strong chance that Trump will increase his share of the black male vote this time (from its very, very low base) enough to make a difference where it counts.

    Odd though it seems to some, he does have pockets of real support in this demographic.

    Furthermore, Latinos are decidedly lukewarm for Biden and their notoriously low turnout levels may also not increase as much as all other demographics (record turnout is expected) plus some of them do like Trump especially if they’re Cuban.

    Caveat: you can’t treat Latinos as a bloc. Different nationality Latinos behave differently, plus it varies from state to state.

    That’s partly why I suspect Texas might be a smaller margin for Trump than Florida.

  44. With Florida I still have no idea, so I’ll just go with the bulk of the state polling and say BIDEN.

    Electoral college:
    BIDEN- 351
    TRUMP- 187

    Biden in the White House and Trump in prison would be a wonderful sight!

  45. High quality posts above. Thanks. I’m currently 284 – 254 TRUMP. More to follow. Plse try to get your entries in by 4pm tomorrow Tues. In person polling begins 1pm UK time.

  46. “Biden in the White House and Trump in prison would be a wonderful sight!”

    It’s really concerning to see non-loonies saying this kind of thing.

    I’ll be personally happy to see Biden win, and my wife will be delighted, though on a selfish level my business has undoubtedly benefitted from Trump.

    But I really really hope the US doesn’t go down the banana republic road of locking up the last president in jail. If Biden sets such a precedent how does he know that won’t be him in a jail cell in 4 years’ time? Fortunately I think Biden is smarter than the left of his party and will try to wipe the slate clean and move on rather than get distracted by years of legal battles over trying to jail Trump. Certainly that will be no way to calm down the culture wars.

  47. Other people can certainly go after Trump for his misdeeds (if indeed he has done anything illegal), but it shouldn’t be Joe Biden. Putin, Erdogan, Maduro and Lukashenko have jailed political adversaries, that’s not a club any western politician should want to join.

  48. “Other people can certainly go after Trump for his misdeeds (if indeed he has done anything illegal), but it shouldn’t be Joe Biden.”

    It shouldn’t be Biden or any branch of congress. By pardoning Nixon, Ford prioritised the greater good and took the widespread criticism (and inevitable electoral defeat) on the chin, I hope Biden does likewise if elected, in any case he will only serve a single term.

    It’s an interesting question as to whether law enforcement is likely to catch Trump without any political encouragement. Perhaps, like Al Capone, the tax people will get him.

  49. As Polltroll says- I’m not advocating that Joe Biden should personally be going after Trump. He’ll have enough on this plate. Whilst I understand HH’s comment, I do think his concern should be directed at an outgoing President who will be flinging all kinds of shit (including inciting violence at some of his rallies) rather than a half joking remark on an anonymous message board.

  50. “As Polltroll says- I’m not advocating that Joe Biden should personally be going after Trump. He’ll have enough on this plate. Whilst I understand HH’s comment, I do think his concern should be directed at an outgoing President who will be flinging all kinds of shit (including inciting violence at some of his rallies) rather than a half joking remark on an anonymous message board.”

    A sensible quid pro quo for Biden agreeing not to pursue Trump would be that Trump agrees to slink away into oblivion. No more rallies and certainly no incitement to violence, hopefully no comment on politics at all (which, after all, is tradition for all ex-presidents), maybe get him to delete his Twitter account if need be.

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