Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)

2015 Result:
Conservative: 1215 (7.6%)
Labour: 4560 (28.6%)
Lib Dem: 456 (2.9%)
SNP: 8662 (54.3%)
Christian: 1045 (6.6%)
MAJORITY: 4102 (25.7%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Highlands and islands. The whole of the Comhairle nan Eilean Siar area.

Main population centres: Stornoway.

Profile: Na h-Eileanan an lar covers the Western Isles (the seat was called Western Isles until 2005). It covers the Outer Hebridies, the further reaches of the archipeligo off the coast of north-western Scotland, including the islands of Lewis and Harris, North Uist, South Uist, Barra, Benbecula, Scalpay, Great Bernera, Grimsay and the uninhabited St Kilda. The only town on the Outer Hebridies is the fishing port of Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis, from where ferries sail to the mainland. Stornoway also has an airport with services to the mainland. The seat is socially as well as geographically somewhat isolated: Gaelic is widely spoken, the Western Isles are the only area in Scotland were over 60% of people speak Gaelic. Sunday Observance is also still widely observed on the Islands, particularly in the Northern islands, with a widespread refusal to trade or travel on the Sabbath, due to the continuing strength of the Free Church and Free Presbyterian Church. In 2006 considerable controversey was caused with the opening of a ferry service to Lewis that operated on Sundays.

Politics: Na h-Eileanan an lar has the smallest electorate of any seat in the country with just over 20,000 voters, only a third of the size of most constituencies. Attempts to link the counstituency with others have always foundered on the geographical size of the area and problems of travel and communications for the MP. Politically the seat has been a marginal between the SNP and Labour since the war. In both 2005 and 2010 it was one of only a few seats where the Conservatives failed to retain their deposit. In the 1975 referendum on continued membership of the European Union, the Western Isles and Shetland Isles were the only areas to vote no.


Current MP
ANGUS MACNEIL (Scottish National Party) Born 1970, Barra. Educated at Nicholson Institute, Stornoway and Strathclyde University. Former teacher and BBC worker. Contested Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber 2001. First elected as MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar in 2005. A native speaker of Gaelic. MacNeil brough the original complaint that lead to the police investigation into "loans for peerages".
Past Results
2010
Con: 647 (4%)
Lab: 4838 (33%)
LDem: 1097 (7%)
SNP: 6723 (46%)
Oth: 1412 (10%)
MAJ: 1885 (13%)
2005
Con: 610 (4%)
Lab: 4772 (34%)
LDem: 1096 (8%)
SNP: 6213 (45%)
Oth: 1145 (8%)
MAJ: 1441 (10%)
2001*
Con: 1250 (9%)
Lab: 5924 (45%)
LDem: 849 (6%)
SNP: 4850 (37%)
Oth: 286 (2%)
MAJ: 1074 (8%)
1997
Con: 1071 (7%)
Lab: 8955 (56%)
LDem: 495 (3%)
SNP: 5379 (33%)
Oth: 206 (1%)
MAJ: 3576 (22%)

2015 Candidates
MARK BROWN (Conservative) Financial services manager.
ALASDAIR MORRISON (Labour) Born 1968, Stornoway. Educated at Nicolson Institute. Journalist. Contested MSP for Western Isles 1999-2007.
RUARAIDH FERGUSON (Liberal Democrat)
ANGUS MACNEIL (SNP) See above.
JOHN CORMACK (Christian)
Links
Comments - 626 Responses on “Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)”
  1. Florida is always nuts and unpredictable so I think Tim’s prediction was great. I personally got Florida, NC and ME-2 incorrect. Not bad by my (admittedly low) standards.

  2. Tim and you did well in picking the States won and therefore the EV make up but in terms of votes, (if you use each State’s actual votes for the chosen candidate) I was the most accurate.

  3. I got North Carolina and Florida wrong and Georgia too if it ends up going to Biden – as it surely will.

  4. Georgia is definitely Biden’s best result being in the Deep South where the Democrats haven’t been competitive since Bill Clinton and the only deep south state he won in successive elections was Louisiana – which went to Trump this time round by about 20% – despite its large black population

    Georgia bears all the hallmarks of a Deep South state – Republican legislature, active death penalty, black disenfranchisement etc – and Biden looks as if he’s still won it – despite faring less well in the outer south – North Carolina, Florida

  5. ‘but in terms of votes, (if you use each State’s actual votes for the chosen candidate) I was the most accurate’.

    That wasn’t what we were predicting so your point is completely irrelevant. Still, you keep patting yourself on the back. Lol.

    (Console yourself that your guess this time was better than your glorious prediction that Goldsmith would beat Khan in the London Mayoral election).

  6. To be fair I initially thought that Goldsmith would make light work or Khan – on announcement or his candidature but never though he would be dim enough to run a Trump-inspired, pro-Brexit, racist campaign in left-leaning London

    What’s remarkable about Goldsmith is that he’s still in government despite being rejected by the electorate thrice

    No wonder he thinks so highly of soon to be ex-president Trump, despite the latter’s decision to pull the US out of the Paris agreement on climate change – something Goldsmith used to pretend he cared about

  7. Im not taking this seriously but Tristan: “…your glorious prediction that Goldsmith would beat Khan in the Mayoral election”.This is news to me. Fyi: I’ve correctly predicted the 2015 17 and 2019 GEs. Was one of the very few who consistently said Leave would win and correctly predicted REP wins in Arizona Ohio Michigan although I did say HRC would win the EV (a small maj).

    Tristan you appear to have the vision of Mr Magoo – you’ve hardly got any thing right; apart from, to give you your dues, a decent guess at this U.S election.

  8. “Why do you think that”

    Because it’s simply the norm. The Dems – during the election period – sought to alter State law and add 3 days’ grace for postal ballots to arrive. The SC would simply be putting the State back into the position it was in, as is the norm with precedent.

    As well as the fact that the little-known GSA hasn’t yet ascertained a winner:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-make-biden-transition-messy/story?id=74060595
    Which is why Ladbrokes etc haven’t yet paid out on N Carolina, Georgia, Arizona etc.

    Apart from the ultimate Irony of Tristan – who berated Grumpy for his (what turned out to be rather accurate predictions) – admitting that his own prediction was only so his year had a highlight!

  9. “Arizona – Trump (but TCTC in my book) 11
    Colorado – Biden 9
    Florida – Trump 29
    Georgia – Biden (TCTC) 16
    Iowa – Trump 6
    Maine – Biden 3
    Maine 2nd – Trump 1 (TCTC)
    Minnesota – Biden (TCTC) 10
    Michigan – Biden 16
    Neb. 2nd – Biden 1 (TCTC)
    Nevada – Trump (but TCTC in my book) 6
    New Hamps – Trump (TCTC) 4
    New Mexico – Biden 5
    N Carolina – Trump 15
    Ohio – Trump 18
    Penn.– Trump 20
    Texas – Trump (TCTC) 38
    Wisconsin – Biden (TCTC) 10

    Total electoral college votes:
    TRUMP – 273
    Biden – 265”

    Above was my election day prediction.

    The good news is I got Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, N Carolina Iowa, ME-2 and NE-2 correct;

    I also said that Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire were TCTC.

    The bad news is that I was still wrong on the above 3 which, along with Pennsylvania, I predicted would go to Trump. Plus NH was won by Biden by >7%.

    Still, in terms of how many electoral college votes in total we all got wrong, it’s:

    Grumpy 41 (total of above 4 states I predicted for Trump)
    Mark Felt 42 (Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania)
    Tristan 45 (Florida, NC, ME-2)
    Tim Jones 61 (Florida, Georgia, NC, ME-2)

    Tim made so many mistakes they cancelled each other out and got him closer to the overall total EC votes, but he’s actually the clear loser.

    And of course I have to modestly point out that I am the narrow winner 😉 😉

  10. National lead: Biden +3.7% (probably about 4% when all’s said and done).

    I predicted 3% or 5m – he’s > 3% but also > 5m! – in fact will be >6m votes ahead of Trump when all’s said and done

  11. Margins of victory in each state, in order. States where there is still significant counting left to do, notably New York, I have estimated where they’ll end up in the order:

    Biden:

    >30%:

    DC: 87.4%
    Vermont: 35.5%
    Massachusetts: 33%
    Maryland: 32.4%
    California: TBC (currently 29.7% on est. 96% counting)
    Hawaii: TBC (currently 29.4% on est. 96% counting)

    20-30%:

    ME-1: 23.1%
    Rhode Island: 20.7%
    Connecticut: 20.1%
    New York: TBC (currently 13.4% on 80-85% counting)

    10-20%:

    Washington State: 19.4%
    Delaware: 19%
    New Jersey: TBC (currently 15.6% on est. 94% counting)
    Illinois: 17.1%
    Oregon 16.2%
    Colorado: 13.5%
    New Mexico: 10.8%
    Virginia: 10.1%

    5-9%:

    Maine (statewide): 8.7%
    New Hampshire: 7.3%
    Minnesota: 7.1%
    NE-2: 6.8%

    0-4%:

    Michigan 2.7%
    Nevada: 2.4%
    Pennsylvania: 1.0
    Wisconsin: 0.6%
    Arizona: 0.3%
    Georgia: 0.3%

    And going from lowest to highest, for Trump:

    0-4%:

    North Carolina: 1.3%
    Florida: 3.3%

    5-9%:

    Texas: 5.6%
    ME-2: 6.7%
    Iowa: 8.2%
    Ohio: 8.2%

    10-20%:

    Alaska: 10.2% (could fall 30%:

    Idaho: 30.7%
    Oklahoma: 33.1%
    N Dakota: 33.6%
    West Virginia: 38.9%
    Wyoming: 43.3%
    NE-3: 53.2%

    Incidentally, they won 25 states each, with Biden winning DC on top of that.

    From the states where the winning margin was <3%, Biden took 79 electoral votes and Trump just 15. Kind of sums of the election, which really was very close.

  12. *correction:

    Alaska: 10.2% (could fall <10%)

  13. It’s ridiculous that people are beating themselves and others up about US election predictions. From so far away, none of us are able to have our finger on the pulse above & beyond what we see in the media.

    Just to pick up Tim Jones’ comment above also

    “Georgia is definitely Biden’s best result being in the Deep South where the Democrats haven’t been competitive since Bill Clinton and the only deep south state he won in successive elections was Louisiana – which went to Trump this time round by about 20% – despite its large black population”

    Clinton won his home state of Arkansas in both 92 and 96, and Tennessee also (Gore’s home state), so it’s not really true that Louisiana was the only deep south state that Clinton carried twice. TN isn’t really deep south – more similar in some ways to Kentucky and West Virginia – though I’d say AR is, at least culturally.

  14. Sorry, not sure how I managed to delete 1/2 my list of Trump state wins, I’ll repost my 1.45pm post above with the list complete.

  15. REPOSTED WITH MISSING FIGURES

    Margins of victory in each state, in order. States where there is still significant counting left to do, notably New York, I have estimated where they’ll end up in the order:

    Biden:

    >30%:

    DC: 87.4%
    Vermont: 35.5%
    Massachusetts: 33%
    Maryland: 32.4%
    California: TBC (currently 29.7% on est. 96% counting)
    Hawaii: TBC (currently 29.4% on est. 96% counting)

    20-30%:

    ME-1: 23.1%
    Rhode Island: 20.7%
    Connecticut: 20.1%
    New York: TBC (currently 13.4% on 80-85% counting)

    10-20%:

    Washington State: 19.4%
    Delaware: 19%
    New Jersey: TBC (currently 15.6% on est. 94% counting)
    Illinois: 17.1%
    Oregon 16.2%
    Colorado: 13.5%
    New Mexico: 10.8%
    Virginia: 10.1%

    5-9%:

    Maine (statewide): 8.7%
    New Hampshire: 7.3%
    Minnesota: 7.1%
    NE-2: 6.8%

    0-4%:

    Michigan 2.7%
    Nevada: 2.4%
    Pennsylvania: 1.0
    Wisconsin: 0.6%
    Arizona: 0.3%
    Georgia: 0.3%

    And going from lowest to highest, for Trump:

    0-4%:

    North Carolina: 1.3%
    Florida: 3.3%

    5-9%:

    Texas: 5.6%
    ME-2: 6.7%
    Iowa: 8.2%
    Ohio: 8.2%

    10-20%:

    Alaska: 10.2% (could fall 30%:

    Idaho: 30.7%
    Oklahoma: 33.1%
    N Dakota: 33.6%
    West Virginia: 38.9%
    Wyoming: 43.3%
    NE-3: 53.2%

    Incidentally, they won 25 states each, with Biden winning DC on top of that.

    From the states where the winning margin was <3%, Biden took 79 electoral votes and Trump just 15. Kind of sums of the election, which really was very close.

  16. This is SO WEIRD – UKPR has chopped off my post at the exact same point as before, part-way through Trump’s list.

    Whereas I assumed I’d done something with fat fingers before, clearly it wasn’t actually me.

  17. Let’s try Trump states by themselves:

    And going from lowest to highest, for Trump:

    0-4%:

    North Carolina: 1.3%
    Florida: 3.3%

    5-9%:

    Texas: 5.6%
    ME-2: 6.7%
    Iowa: 8.2%
    Ohio: 8.2%

    10-20%:

    Alaska: 10.2% (could fall 30%:

    Idaho: 30.7%
    Oklahoma: 33.1%
    N Dakota: 33.6%
    West Virginia: 38.9%
    Wyoming: 43.3%
    NE-3: 53.2%

    Incidentally, they won 25 states each, with Biden winning DC on top of that.

    From the states where the winning margin was <3%, Biden took 79 electoral votes and Trump just 15. Kind of sums of the election, which really was very close.

  18. Nope, doesn’t like that either. ??!

  19. And going from lowest to highest, for Trump:

    0-4%:

    North Carolina: 1.3%
    Florida: 3.3%

    5-9%:

    Texas: 5.6%
    ME-2: 6.7%
    Iowa: 8.2%
    Ohio: 8.2%

    10-20%:

    Alaska: 10.2% (could fall below 10%)
    South Carolina: 11.7%
    NE-2: 14.9%
    Kansas: 15.2%
    Missouri: 15.6%
    Indiana: 16.1%
    Montana: 16.4%
    Mississippi: 17.9%
    Louisiana: 18.6%
    Nebraska (statewide): 19.3%

    20-30%:

    Utah: 20.2%
    Tennessee: 23.3%
    Alabama: 25.6%
    S Dakota: 25.8%
    Kentucky: 25.9%
    Arkansas: 28%

    30% and above:

    Idaho: 30.7%
    Oklahoma: 33.1%
    N Dakota: 33.6%
    West Virginia: 38.9%
    Wyoming: 43.3%
    NE-3: 53.2%

    Incidentally, they won 25 states each, with Biden winning DC on top of that.

    From the states where the winning margin was less than 3%, Biden took 79 electoral votes and Trump just 15. Kind of sums of the election, which really was very close.

  20. Right, when I took out the symbols and replaced them with words, it accepted it all instead of chopping out the text between symbols.

    Don’t ask me why, as it didn’t seem to mind the use of > near the top of Biden’s list.

    (though whether this message will read sense once it’s posted, who knows?)

  21. Sure enough, it did it in my post above, removing the word ‘and’ between the two symbols for fewer than and greater than.

    Learn something new every day.

  22. Sorry to clog up the thread. Good evening!

  23. Yeah you’re both probably right. But wouldnt be shocked if Flint or Berger were offered it. Starmer has already said Lab might look at changing the Party rules to.allow someone to be a PPC even though standing against the Party in a previous election. The majority is 3,600 & on current polling Flint or Berger should hold. In any case does it really matter if Lab lose? I mean in terms of seat totals / Con majority?

  24. GRUMPY I’m having difficulty following you.

    From my figures TIM JONES has won.

    Result was 306 to 232.
    Predictions were:
    GRUMPY: BIDEN 265 (-41)
    MARK FELT: BIDEN 248 (-58)
    TIM JONES: BIDEN 335 (+29)
    TRISTAN: BIDEN 351 (+45)

  25. Ok..i see what you’ve done. You’ve based it on correctly forecasted States rather than the total EC votes. So you won?

  26. I should’ve made it clearer on what basis the settling would be done.

    GRUMPY: “In terms of how many electoral college votes in total we all got wrong, it’s:

    Grumpy 41 (AZ NV NH PA)
    Mark Felt 42 (Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania)
    Tristan 45 (Florida, NC, ME-2)
    Tim Jones 61 (Florida, Georgia, NC, ME-2) ”

    Actually I’ve a good case I only got 3 States wrong..GA NV and PA but so did TRISTAN but the number of Electoral college votes (wrong) were less than his.

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