Mansfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13288 (28.2%)
Labour: 18603 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 1642 (3.5%)
Green: 1486 (3.1%)
UKIP: 11850 (25.1%)
TUSC: 324 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5315 (11.3%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Coterminous with the Mansfield council area.

Main population centres: Mansfield, Mansfield Woodhouse, Market Worsop.

Profile: A traditional former mining town on the western edge of Nottinghamshire. The coal mines have long since closed, and unemployment problems have been further exacerbated by the closures of other industries, such as the Mansfield Brewery and the AG Barr factory.

Politics: Mansfield has been held by the Labour party since the 1920s, althought not always entirely safely (in 1987 it was an ultra-marginal). The local Mansfield Independent Forum is extremely strong at a local level and this has translated into significant independent challenges in the Parliamentary seat - Stewart Rickersey took 17% of the vote in 2005 and Andre Camilleri 9% in 2010.


Current MP
ALAN MEALE (Labour) Born 1949, Bishop Auckland. Educated at St Joseph Roman Catholic School and Durham University. Former seaman and political assistant. First elected as MP for Mansfield in 1987. Opposition whip 1992-1994, PPS to John Prescott 1994-1998. Junior DETR minister 1998-1999.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12741 (26%)
Lab: 18753 (39%)
LDem: 7469 (15%)
UKIP: 2985 (6%)
Oth: 6447 (13%)
MAJ: 6012 (12%)
2005*
Con: 7035 (18%)
Lab: 18400 (48%)
LDem: 5316 (14%)
Oth: 7525 (20%)
MAJ: 10875 (28%)
2001
Con: 10012 (27%)
Lab: 21050 (57%)
LDem: 5790 (16%)
MAJ: 11038 (30%)
1997
Con: 10038 (21%)
Lab: 30556 (64%)
LDem: 5244 (11%)
MAJ: 20518 (43%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREA CLARKE (Conservative) Solicitor.
ALAN MEALE (Labour) See above.
TONY ROGERS (Liberal Democrat)
SID PEPPER (UKIP)
PAUL FROST (Green) Careers advisor.
KAREN SEYMOUR (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 106 Responses on “Mansfield”
  1. A 17th century ancestor of mine was born in this constituency, on the basis of which I consider myself a major authority on the seat – Puritan gain.

  2. Dead cert Tory gain.

  3. Er…?

  4. Just a joke, obviously!

  5. potential UKIP gain?

  6. yeah right

  7. UKIP coming second wouldn’t at all be shocking IMO but Labour should hold on quite easily.

  8. Unlike neighbouring Ashfield, the independent vote here did not get hoovered up by the Lib Dems, either in local or general elections. My strong suspicion is that a lot of it will be susceptible to UKIP now, so Andy is probably right.

    Alan Meale was an extremely controversial and in many ways unpopular candidate choice, which certainly showed up in the 1987 election result here. Though a seaman rather than a miner, he took the NUM side in the miners strike, unlike his predecessor and most of his constituents. Only after 1992 did he bed more comfortably into the seat, though he has never really been a popular local MP. I’m actually quite surprised he hasn’t stood down by now.

  9. Is Meale a standing again in 2015?

  10. As far as I know yes he is. He’s one of the quieter MPs it must be said.

  11. Netherfield (Mansfield) result:
    LAB – 57.7% (+12.1)
    UKIP – 37.4% (+37.4)
    TUSC – 4.8% (+4.8)

    Labour gain from Independent. I suspect Mansfield’s love of independents has translated into support for UKIP based on that poll. But without Con or LD candidates it’s hard to tell.

  12. Lab 347, UKIP 225, TUSC 29. For those who like the figures.

  13. Following the link to Ashfield and Mansfield Conservatives’ website recently posted on the Ashfield thread led me to this:

    http://www.mansfieldandashfieldconservatives.org.uk/news/selection-parliamentary-candidates

    Andrea Clarke has been selected here for the Tories.

  14. Obviously posting that purely in the interests of completeness on such a seat as this!

  15. The Lib Dem candidate is Tony Rogers, who previously stood in Chesterfield three times against Tony Benn in the late 80s and 90s.

  16. I’m pretty sure it’s the same Tony Rogers who stood in Chesterfield in three elections against Tony Benn.

  17. Labour Hold. 10,000 majority.

  18. UKIP need a swing of 7.16% from Labour to win this next time.

  19. Highest Leave votes in areas covering Labour seats:

    Mansfield 70.9
    Bolsover 70.8
    NE Lincs 69.9
    Ashfield 69.8
    Hartlepool 69.6
    Stoke-on-Trent 69.4
    Doncaster 69.0
    Barnsley 68.3
    Walsall 67.9
    Rotherham 67.9
    Bassetlaw 67.8
    Dudley 67.6
    Kingston upon Hull 67.6
    Blackpool 67.5
    Sandwell 66.7
    Burnley 66.5
    Wakefield 66.4
    North Lincs 66.3
    Hyndburn 66.2
    Redcar and Cleveland 66.2
    Middlesborough 65.5

  20. Some of Britain’s loveliest spots there!

  21. I have relatives in Mansfield who I expect voted leave.

    On one visit, they explained to me that mermaids really existed because they had seen footage of them on a Discovery Channel documentary. Honestly.

  22. That’s what was great about the overnight results.

    For many uneducated chavs in economically depressed towns across England, the result may be one of the highlights of their lives. Lives which will continue to be grim, ignorant and ill informed, and almost certainly shorter than those in nicer areas.

    Life’s losers deserved their moment, and they got it!

  23. If my relatives have voted to leave, they have probably f***ed themselves. They are lovely people and my cousin has just had a baby. I am very worried that her (crap) job will be heading off to mainland Europe. My elder cousin’s even crapper job I would expect to be okay.

  24. I have similar concerns about family members next door in Ashfield, enthusiastic Leavers all. Both the people I particularly have in mind are working in factories with big export orders.

  25. I don’t know why Tristan feels the need to write such snobbish crap.

  26. Andy JS- snobby yes, but I’m not a politician…I don’t have to pretend to care and reach out to people who would, quite frankly, not approve of or understand my life either. It’s a fact that these people are often homophobic, frankly rather racist, small minded and ignorant. That is certainly not their fault…capitalism dictates that life has winners and losers (economically and socially at least; many of these people will be personally happier than me).

  27. I also think that many of the working class (in both the UK and US) are hankering back to economic times that are almost certain to not return (the relatively prosperous post WW2 era until the early 1970’s). Income differentials and life chances were not as starkly different then between the different classes. Social mobility has stalled frankly, for the most part.

  28. Tristan – I still haven’t figured out whether you’re refreshingly honest or a wind up merchant!

  29. The latest YouGov polls show Lab leading UKIP just 19-17% amongst men, too.

    By contrast, leading them 28-12% amongst women.

  30. Looking at EU Ref results by constituency I noticed Mansfield was 70% leave. This surely makes this a very achievable Con gain?

  31. Also 25% UKIP vote in 2015 Flare, a very good result for the Kippers which they will surely not match on 8th June.

    Given that vote to be squeezed and the Brexit vote of 71% here I also think this (and NE Derbyshire, though not so sure about Gedling) is likely to go blue.

  32. I think it’s red kipper territory; the UKIP vote here won’t go Tory so they won’t come close to gaining it

  33. Observer report on the seat:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/mansfield-miners-strike-general-election-brexit

    When Meale was first elected in 1987 – in the aftermath of the miners strike : Mansfield was the epicentre of the Notts miners who did not strike – his majority was a princely 56.

    P.S. I trust all you anoraks can remember which other seat had the same majority that year.

  34. True. Plus in a whole swathe of seats the Tory HQ simply parachuted in PPCs in Jan/Feb 2015 ie a mere few weeks before Polling Day.

    They were nearly all non-locals too as is the case here and with Gary Streeter Jnr in a similar seat.

  35. I think that if the seats didn’t go blue in the 1980s (Vauxhall) they’re unlikely to do so now. Theresa May is nowhere near as impressive as Thatcher was though that was before my time. I reckon the ukip vote falls mainly to labour as was said above.

  36. Is there a seat that isn’t a Con Gain Plop

  37. ‘True. Plus in a whole swathe of seats the Tory HQ simply parachuted in PPCs in Jan/Feb 2015 ie a mere few weeks before Polling Day’

    After decades of getting it wrong, I was under the impression that Tory local associations were much better nowadays at selecting good local candidates who had a good track record of service in the areas they were seeking to represent, rather than selecting who had the best connections, the poshest accent or the sharpest suit

    It would be a shame if they reverted to type

    The Tories have a chance here, but no more than that – and I dount their candidate selection here will do them any favours – but maybe that’s the point

  38. Yes- Don Valley

    I’ve been thinking the same but at least, unlike the BBC, he doesn’t pretend to be impartial.

  39. As far as UKIP’s collapsing vote is concerned there is – unless polls are badly wrong – hardly such thing as red kippers. The Tories have an extremely good chance here, and in others like it.

  40. IMO A very likely CON GAIN – I would say it’s a 70% likliehood

  41. “…hardly such thing as red kippers.”

    Let’s have a bit of clarification. There definitely were people who voted Labour in 2010 and UKIP in 2015. But Labour’s problem is that those people aren’t returning to Labour in 2017 – they are now voting for the Conservatives.

  42. I think it is unlikely that a significant number of people who voted UKIp in 2015 would vote Labour now, unless they liked their local MP.

    The sort of Labour voter who’d switch to UKIP would typically be someone who wouldn’t have abandoned the party if a John Mann type figure was leader, they’re patriotic, anti mass immigration and gave Labour as long as they felt necessary to try and move toward their line of thinking.

    And now with May delivering Brexit and sounding less like a patrician, they might be tempted to lend their vote to the Tories, perhaps just this once.

    They certainly won’t vote for Labour led by Corbyn, and a front bench with the likes of Abbott, Thornberry & McDonnell.

    That’s in direct contrast to ‘bluekip’ voters, who for a spell switched between the two almost at the drop of a hat.

    Since I rejoined the Tories I’ve been struck by how welcoming they are of ‘bluekip’ types like myself, and how ‘if anyone else wants to join just let us know’ they are.

  43. It’s only anecdotal but I hear from a colleague in Notts that the Tory candidate is popular with those who wouldn’t normally vote Tory or vote at all. His text said, “One girl said she’s voting for Ben cos she saw him sing karaoke.”

    I see from his site that he was a barman, supermarket manager and recruiter before standing. Simply his photo (crew cut) with May certainly makes him stand out when you think of the typical Tory MP. I realise there are a couple of dozen from a working class background but they’re always in a minority. I suppose one thing Labour supporters should welcome – if there’s a Tory maj of 100 – is that we’ll see a few more MPs from ordinary backgrounds.

  44. Wow. Con gain. Wasn’t expecting that the way the night has gone

  45. Mansfield was the location of the UDM HQ back in the 1980s. This is not quite as shocking as people who know about the Miner’s Strike might think.

  46. Didnt realise till know that they was cock up when the votes were declared and at first Alan Meale was declared elected until it was corrected.

  47. Assuming they can rely on voters in Mansfield whilst telling their formerly loyal voters in Kensington to bugger off is the route to Tory electoral disaster. In the next election at least (it can be assumed Kensington will return to the fold after a few years of PM Corbyn). Cameron taught the Tories that they needed Liberal votes to win but they’ve forgotten the lesson.

  48. We have to remember the long term demographic and electoral trends.

    There’s no guarantee that Kensington would go Conservative even after PM Corbyn – just as the richest parts of Manhattan never returned to voting Republican.

    The likes of Havering, Bexley and Bromley are likely to be the equivalent of Staten Island electorally.

  49. There’s certainly no guarantee Mansfield will stay Conservative after cross-party soft Brexit and the inevitable downturn which we are due by virtue of the economic cycle. IMO the Tories are on the decline and aren’t going to recover until after the next Labour government. I mostly agree with your thoughts on inter generational issues which are also becoming a big factor.

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