Holborn & St Pancras

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12014 (21.9%)
Labour: 29062 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 3555 (6.5%)
Green: 7013 (12.8%)
UKIP: 2740 (5%)
Others: 533 (1%)
MAJORITY: 17048 (31%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Camden council area.

Main population centres: Holborn, Camden Town, Primrose Hill, Kentish Town, Highgate.

Profile: A long slim inner-city seat, stretching from the fringes of the City of London at Holborn, past the museums and university collages of Bloomsbury to St Pancras and King Cross station, still regarded as a grim red light district despite the regeneration that greeted the new Eurostar terminal at St Pancras. Northwards the seat covers the vibrant trendy areas like Camden Town with its market and music venues, the fashionable victorian terraces of Primrose Hill, the large council estates of Kentish Town and Maitland Park, Gospel Oak and the leafy affluence of Parliament Hill and Highgate. There are extremely high house prices here, but only around a quarter of the population are owner-occupiers, with most of the housing social housing or private rental.

Politics: Traditionally this has been a safe Labour seat and was retained by Labour throughout the 1980s. Almost half the housing is social housing and there is a significant Bangladeshi Muslim population. The more inner-city and southern part of the constituency is solidly Labour. The Greens have some strength in the seat and in 2015 it was contested by their party leader, Natalie Bennett
.


Current MP
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Former Director of Public Prosecutions. First elected as MP for Holborn & St Pancras in 2015. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11134 (20%)
Lab: 25198 (46%)
LDem: 15256 (28%)
GRN: 1480 (3%)
Oth: 1581 (3%)
MAJ: 9942 (18%)
2005*
Con: 6482 (19%)
Lab: 14857 (43%)
LDem: 10070 (29%)
GRN: 2798 (8%)
Oth: 152 (0%)
MAJ: 4787 (14%)
2001
Con: 5258 (17%)
Lab: 16770 (54%)
LDem: 5595 (18%)
GRN: 1875 (6%)
Oth: 1631 (5%)
MAJ: 11175 (36%)
1997
Con: 6804 (18%)
Lab: 24707 (65%)
LDem: 4750 (13%)
Oth: 946 (2%)
MAJ: 17903 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
WILL BLAIR (Conservative) Educated at Sherborne School and Oxford University. Associate director of a PR and Communications company.
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Barrister and former Director of Public Prosecutions. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
JILL FRASER (Liberal Democrat) Born Essex. Works in a chip shop. Camden councillor 2003-2012. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2005.
MAXINE SPENCER (UKIP) Born Hampstead. Full time carer. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010.
NATALIE BENNETT (Green) Born 1966, Australia. Educated at MLC School and Sydney University. Journalist. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010. Leader of the Green party since 2012.
DAVID O`SULLIVAN (Socialist Equality)
SHANE O`DONNELL (CISTA)
VANESSA HUDSON (Animal Welfare) Born Sheffield. Educated at Liverpool University. Media producer. Contested London 2014 European election.
Links
Comments - 639 Responses on “Holborn & St Pancras”
  1. Nandy started well but didn’t perform well tonight being interviewed by Andrew Neil.

    She claimed she wanted to devolve power – but then opposed all 3 suggestions.

    She says she understands wwc wanted less immigration but then says she still supports freedom of movement.

    She’s actually managing to become almost as patronising as ET!

  2. 28Jan.. So far, 84 CLPs have nominated:

    Keir Starmer: 48
    Rebecca Long-Bailey: 21
    Lisa Nandy: 11
    Emily Thornberry: 4

  3. 151 CLPs nominated*…:

    Keir Starmer: 83
    Rebecca Long-Bailey: 43
    Lisa Nandy: 18
    Emily Thornberry: 6

    Starmer continues on inexorable trudge to victory.

    * There was a draw in Battersea, so no one was nominated!

  4. He’s said he’d reinstate freedom of movement.

    Happy Brexit Day!

  5. Darlington and South Shields and Newcastle have nominated Keir Starmer. It’s Definitely not looking good for RLB.

  6. Looking back at these pages and pondering the beliefs of The Next Labour Leader I came across this entry 16 months ago:

    DEEPTHROAT
    What the heck is Mr Starmer playing at?

    Declares to Conference “REMAIN is an option” in a 2nd Referendum totally unilaterally.

    Is he trying to destroy Corbyn?

    Surely he must know Lab will suffer badly in seats North of Watford in a general election?
    September 25th, 2018 at 8:45 pm

    Doesn’t seem to be doing any harm. Will be able he totally suppress his europhilism for the next 5 years?

  7. Starmer innhustings dropped heavy hints he wouldn’t have RLB in his Shadow Cabinet. Another hint there’ll be an attempt to distance themselves from JC/LEFT/MOMENTUM wing

  8. Starmer is still overwhelmingly likely to win, but he runs the risk of falling between two stools. My sense is that most Corbynites see him as too Corbyn-sceptic and vice-versa, leading to him being grudgingly chosen as the best of a bad bunch by many, but loved by relatively few.

  9. I would say it’s moderately likely he’ll win on first ballot. My guess though at this time is 48%/38%/14%. Early days however

    But we have to wait till 4th April. Why the Party considers it’s necessary to give people 37 days to vote, especially when we’ve already had 6 weeks of campaigning, is beyond the ken of me.

  10. From my experience the corbynsceptics have embraced him as one their own. Much more than as Nandy because i don’t think they trust Nandys left leanings. I think they believe Starmer will shed most of Corbyns policies in order to be electable whereas they probably think Nandy while not 100% on board agrees with 90% of the policies.

    Keir will win on first preferences. I think he’ll do well amongst a very pro eu membership 55% maybe. I think he’ll do well amongst union affliates given his current batch 49% maybe. The support affliates are hardest to gage. Theyve been very good for Corbyn but no idea now could be as low as 40 as high as 60 cant call it

  11. I guess the thing is, in the end, if you’re a Labour moderate, you don’t really have anywhere else to go. You probably vote for Keir Starmer; or you vote for Lisa Nandy with Keir as your second preference, which will very likely have the same effect.

    Hence Keir can triangulate towards the Corbynites( picking up endorsements like Ricky Tomlinson, who is so left-wing the British government once suspected him of being a Soviet agent), and not suffer too much on his other flank.

  12. The tricky situation will be bringing the broad coalition of Corbynites and Corbynsceptics with him. If he doesn’t shed his promises the Corbynsceptics will be calling for head. If he does he’ll shed support from Corbynites which might cost him more given how lopsided his coalition probably is

  13. Which is of course why his so-called “pledges” were mostly vacuous, motherhood-and-apple-pie platitudes rather than genuine policies. Enables him to keep walking that tightrope.

  14. Which is the problem with this contest. Lots of rhetoric not much substance. There are some ambitious pledges though. Free social care. Big critism from disability groups was labours pledge for free elderly social care when ofc social care costs disabled people of all ages. Also a military intervention act aimed to reduce armed conflict

  15. PT is spot on. Indeed Labour’s voting system meant CLPs voted for the least offensive option.

    As Corbyn’s wife pointed out: the Corbynite RLB won on first past the post – it was only transfers that meant KS got nominated from Islington.

    Incidentally, I doubt Ricky T has a vote: he was still a member of the Socialist Labour Party (even after Corbyn became leader). Unless he slipped in – and wasn’t expelled again when Hatton was.

  16. The more I think about it, Keir Starmer has the same problem among the Labour membership that Boris Johnson has among the UK electorate. In both cases, the crucial swing voters that they need to hold onto to win are very different from their median voter. For Keir, he’s mostly relying on soft-left Corbyn-sceptics and what little remains of unabashed Blairism with In the Labour Party; but the crucial swing voters probably voted for Corbyn in 2016, if not 2015 as well. For Boris Johnson, his average voter is a middle-class white man living in Essex, a world away from that infamous “red wall” on which so much ink has been spilled.

    So in both cases, you see men whose ideologies aren’t written on their sleeves, seeking to play with laser precision to a particular constituency, and in both cases you’re not really sure if this represents their true beliefs or whether they are simply politicking.

  17. My personal view is that it is pretty clear that Keir Starmer is politicking. Hence as already mentioned his pledges were largely vacuous and not worth the paper they’re written on.

    I’m pretty sure he’ll move towards the centre once he’s elected – the bulk of his support in the PLP comes from people who won’t accept anything less.

  18. A more interesting speculation will be how much will he distance himself from the previous regime. How much of a fight will he pick? And will there be totemic suspensions; expulsions etc. He has plans to ‘give power to local councillors’ in CLPs. Ok what does that mean? Sounds like could be a threat to Left controlled CLPs.

  19. I think not even Keir himself knows the answer to those questions. To be honest, I feel like the more relevant question is how much of a fight the Milne/Murray faction puts up to him. I think he thinks he can control them; but David Cameron and Theresa May both thought they could control the ERG…

  20. It’s worth pointing out Keir will be the first leader supported by a majority of the PLP and members since Blair probably . That is a fine line he needs to balance on however precariously.

    The reference to the cllrs could be his support for replacing Labour Campaign Forums with clp executive members and cllr led forums. This was passed at conference pretty unnoticed but some members are saying this excludes members. It also might suggest he will oppose selecting council leaders by omov. The left have been more successful is dominating clps with less cllrs. Emboldening cllrs will probably embolden moderates in moderate clps.

    Milne will go back to the guardian and Murray Socialist Action

  21. Victories for ‘moderates / Corbynsceptics in GLA Assembly selection elections. Only one Momentum backed candidate won.

    https://labourlist.org/2020/02/corbynsceptics-score-victories-in-london-assembly-candidate-selections/

    Another good sign for Starmer. If his side can do well in London he can be very confident of winning the Leader’s election.

  22. Momentum candidates sweeped the London list selection

  23. So if Labour does really well in May, they will win most of the constituency seats and therefore won’t have many on the top-up list. Conversely if Labour do really poorly in the constituencies, they’ll fare better on the list, because the list acts to smooth out the iniquities of FPTP, which means parties doing poorly in the constituencies make up some ground on the list. In other words, Momentum stand to benefit by destroying their host party. Talk about perverse incentives…

  24. I’d say its quite likely we’ll see little move. Navin Shahs retirement could be interesting though. As is Andrew Dismore but I expect Labours vote in Camden will help them over line there

  25. “Momentum candidates sweeped the London list selection”

    partly because only Momentum candidates were left in the list

    2 incumbents were retiring.
    8 candidates were shortlisted. 4 of them were Momentum backed

    The third incumbent withdrew last month after being appointed by Khan as deputy mayor for housing. So 7 were left in the ballot.

    Momentum candidates were 1-2-5-6.
    Third placed candidate won Lambeth & Southwark selection. 4th place candidate won North East. So they were withdrawn from the list. The final outcome was Momentum candidates getting the 4 list spots.

  26. Is it 2 list members Labour currently hold?

    There’s a rumour that Miliband will be Keirs shadow chancellor. This appears to another offering to the left of the party or at least the third who backed both Miliband and Corbyn

  27. “s it 2 list members Labour currently hold?”

    3: Nicky Gavron, Fiona Twycross and Tom Copley

    Gavron and Twycross announced retirment before selection process started.
    Copley wanted to stand again. He went through the nomination process and was shortlisted. Then he was appointed deputy mayor by Khan and it is incompatible with the being a Assembly member. So he withdrew from the selection.

  28. Another poll confirms Starmers dominance
    Starmer: 53%
    Long Bailey: 31%
    Nandy: 16%

    YouGov, 20 to 25 Feb. 1,323 members, affiliates & regd supporters

  29. Little movement here. Deputy race more interesting. Rayners dropped 10 points atvtge expense of Burgon and Allin Khan

  30. Deputy is even more of a one horse race surely?

    Only one bookie offering odds on a 1st round win for Starmer – 4/7, (approx 65% implied probability.)

  31. New Survation poll would suggest otherwise. Rayner at 35% wins after a close battle for 2nd between Burgon 28 to Rosena 27 eliminates Rosena

  32. Still four weeks to go till we get confirmation that Sir Keir is the new Leader. Meanwhile he’s a 94% favourite, the betting markets imply.

    It’s a dull contest with hardly any memorable moments or grt controversy – apart from Nandy kicking Corbyn perhaps.

    The non aggression pact seems to be holding which is good news for Starmer going forwards. It’ll be interesting in the next few years to see how criticism from Labour members of the new Leader will be handled.

  33. We’re in a weird unique situation where the PLP and Labour members, who are usually so far apart, have been united in who they want to be leader. Which is a strange illusion of unity and clearly suggests what the PLP want from Keir and what members want might nake for an impossible balancing act to satisfy both

  34. Trevor Phillip’s membership suspended by Labour. It’s difficult to keep up with these allegations of racist comments that are flying around and seem to highly nuanced debates. It’s a far cry (and what a good thing it is!!) from the fairly direct racism we had from Gerald Nabarro to Enoch Powell to Terry Dicks, Teddy Taylor…

    As an atheist and a bit of an anti theist, I find criticism of standards and behaviour demanded by religious faiths worrying. And I hope we’re not hurtling ng towards to the stage, where and when, anti religious statementss cannot be said without the vilification of the charge of racist!!

    Who and where is the Chris Hitchens of today? There isn’t one!

  35. On the subject of religion, the media’s favourite gay vicar the Rev Richard Coles (he of 80s popstar fame) wrote in the Guardian today that his reaction to Thatcher’s death was “ding dong the witch is dead”.

    Very Christian I’m sure!!

    To be fair his now deceased partner told him he was being an arse.

  36. In Tim Farron’s immortal words (when asked about you-know-what): “we’re all sinners!”

  37. Quite an apposite comment actually. Coles and Farron are very similar in the pathetic trendy rev stakes.

  38. Labour leadership results Conference on 4th April has been cancelled (Covid19). Given the national emergency, isn’t it a good idea to truncate the whole process & get the new Leader in place asap?

    Members could be told that they have the next six days to vote – and declare the winner next Saturday or earlier. I would guess most members, who intend to vote, have voted already.

  39. And so it trundles on. I’m not saying the Labour leadership contest has taken a long time but half way through human civilisation ended.

    Still another 8 days till we find out Starmer has won. My prediction remains 48% in first ballot.

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