Holborn & St Pancras

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12014 (21.9%)
Labour: 29062 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 3555 (6.5%)
Green: 7013 (12.8%)
UKIP: 2740 (5%)
Others: 533 (1%)
MAJORITY: 17048 (31%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Camden council area.

Main population centres: Holborn, Camden Town, Primrose Hill, Kentish Town, Highgate.

Profile: A long slim inner-city seat, stretching from the fringes of the City of London at Holborn, past the museums and university collages of Bloomsbury to St Pancras and King Cross station, still regarded as a grim red light district despite the regeneration that greeted the new Eurostar terminal at St Pancras. Northwards the seat covers the vibrant trendy areas like Camden Town with its market and music venues, the fashionable victorian terraces of Primrose Hill, the large council estates of Kentish Town and Maitland Park, Gospel Oak and the leafy affluence of Parliament Hill and Highgate. There are extremely high house prices here, but only around a quarter of the population are owner-occupiers, with most of the housing social housing or private rental.

Politics: Traditionally this has been a safe Labour seat and was retained by Labour throughout the 1980s. Almost half the housing is social housing and there is a significant Bangladeshi Muslim population. The more inner-city and southern part of the constituency is solidly Labour. The Greens have some strength in the seat and in 2015 it was contested by their party leader, Natalie Bennett

Current MP
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Former Director of Public Prosecutions. First elected as MP for Holborn & St Pancras in 2015. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
Past Results
Con: 11134 (20%)
Lab: 25198 (46%)
LDem: 15256 (28%)
GRN: 1480 (3%)
Oth: 1581 (3%)
MAJ: 9942 (18%)
Con: 6482 (19%)
Lab: 14857 (43%)
LDem: 10070 (29%)
GRN: 2798 (8%)
Oth: 152 (0%)
MAJ: 4787 (14%)
Con: 5258 (17%)
Lab: 16770 (54%)
LDem: 5595 (18%)
GRN: 1875 (6%)
Oth: 1631 (5%)
MAJ: 11175 (36%)
Con: 6804 (18%)
Lab: 24707 (65%)
LDem: 4750 (13%)
Oth: 946 (2%)
MAJ: 17903 (47%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
WILL BLAIR (Conservative) Educated at Sherborne School and Oxford University. Associate director of a PR and Communications company.
KEIR STARMER (Labour) Born 1962, Southwark. Educated at Reigate Grammar and Leeds University. Barrister and former Director of Public Prosecutions. Appointed KCB in 2014 for services to law and criminal justice.
JILL FRASER (Liberal Democrat) Born Essex. Works in a chip shop. Camden councillor 2003-2012. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2005.
MAXINE SPENCER (UKIP) Born Hampstead. Full time carer. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010.
NATALIE BENNETT (Green) Born 1966, Australia. Educated at MLC School and Sydney University. Journalist. Contested Holborn and St Pancras 2010. Leader of the Green party since 2012.
DAVID O`SULLIVAN (Socialist Equality)
VANESSA HUDSON (Animal Welfare) Born Sheffield. Educated at Liverpool University. Media producer. Contested London 2014 European election.
Comments - 745 Responses on “Holborn & St Pancras”
  1. Corbyn did have better approval ratings in 2017

  2. YouGov had Corbyn ahead from June 2017 to Feb 2018

  3. Opinium had Corbyn ahead for the same period of time

  4. It’s odd the disparity between the parties poll figures and the Leaders figures. Surely never has there been a LOTO in front of the PM, meanwhile his Party is double digit behind.

  5. Thanks for correcting me Matt. I guess I must have retrofitted that stat in my own head, starting with the thesis that Corbyn was a uniquely terrible drain on the political appeal of the Labour Party, and then working backwards to mentqlly fabricate the evidence.

    Sloppy of me, I should have gone back and checked.

  6. Margaret Thatcher trailed Jim Callaghan heavily despite the Tories double digit lead in the opinion polls between 77-78 and during 79

  7. True, plus I think at the time of the financial crisis, DC led Brown but then Labour lead the Tories (in c Oct 2008) around the time there were queues at Northern Rock maybe.

    I assume Blair led Hague even during the brief Tory lead during the 2000 fuel crisis? When Blair said all would be back to normal within 24 hours.

  8. Matt: I’m imagining that was because of her gender? It was a much bigger deal forty years ago…

  9. On the day the Party elects as its new General Secretary a “Right wing Blairite” and the Left lets out a shriek of disapproval,, some great polling news for Sir Keir, a 9% improvement:

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 44% (-4)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    YouGov…fieldwork 25 & 26 May

  10. A prime example of correlation not being causation.

  11. What the loony left disapproves of, the wider population generally approves of.

    Early days but a Black Wednesday style irreversible collapse may be staring the Tory government in the face. If not because of the Cummings fiasco, then it remains a danger when furlough ends and potentially millions of people are chucked onto the dole in the middle of a prolonged global slump.

  12. “Matt: I’m imagining that was because of her gender? It was a much bigger deal forty years ago…”

    Perhaps to some degree, but as LoTO Maggie tended to be seen as lightweight, too doctrinaire (at a time when pragmatism was still in fashion), and too much like the stereotypical middle class housewife, the butt of the joke in so many of the sitcoms of the time (think Penelope Keith in the Good Life). 1979 was one of those elections which the government lost, regardless of their opponent.

  13. Thatcher was also often characterised as rather shrill, brusque and charmless (yes, there was a sexist element to that), but it’s important to give some credit to Callaghan. ‘Sunny’ Jim was widely regarded as one of the more likeable, even tempered post war PMs, despite his government’s many failings.

  14. “‘Sunny’ Jim was widely regarded as one of the more likeable, even tempered post war PMs, despite his government’s many failings.”

    And this can not be overstated – he was the first truly genuine working class prime minister who had left school at 16 and risen through the ranks of menial jobs and the bowels of the union movement rather than going to university. This gave him a real “man of the people” status which conversely made the “Crisis, What Crisis” furore and the winter of discontent so particularly damaging to him personally.

    Even now, more than 40 years later, we have had only one more PM/party leader who rivals Callaghan’s backstory (Major) – and none from the Labour side.

  15. Without looking up biographies, I think Corbyn was much less w/c than Jim or John. Major was probably more so. He was arguably THE MOST working class PM that GB and the UK has ever had. (I’m talking about early life up to mid 20s.)

    I have no evidence but I suspect Corbyn’s middle class upbringing and missed opportunities, his failures in early academic and professional life, might not have been appreciated in the way he wouldve liked and may have counted against him (esp in the N).

  16. I think the public were impressed with Major’s ascent given his humble origins, but it wasn’t something that was continuously talked about or constantly brought up IIRC. I think that was mainly due to his appearance, accent and speech patterns, which all screamed conventional middle class Tory dad from the Home Counties rather than Brixton boy done good. But HH will be able to give more insight.

  17. I dont think anyone really knew anything about Corbyn. I can’t really remember where he grew up or what school he went to

  18. Corbyn not talking about his upbringing is far from unique. For the most part, politicians from privileged backgrounds are quite embarrassed about it and don’t bring it up, whereas those with humbler origins talk about it constantly (eg Sadiq Khan). That’s not a left-right thing, either, it’s just a universal habit of political figureheads.

    The weirdest thing is that the public, who have just put the 20th Etonian into Downing Street, clearly couldn’t care less. So for whose benefit is everyone continuing this charade?

  19. Great poll out for LOTO just now.

    He is enjoying considerably greater public approval than either Boris Johnson or the government.

    The new Labour leader enjoys a net approval rating of 21 per cent – 20 per cent more than the 1 per cent net approval recorded for Boris Johnson in this month’s New Statesman poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.

    Those who approve of Starmer’s performance include more than one in four – 26 per cent – of 2019 Conservative voters, 31 per cent of whom disapprove of his performance.

    Among Labour voters, meanwhile, he enjoys a towering net approval rating of 54 per cent, with 61 per cent approving and only seven per cent disapproving of his performance.

  20. But the Tories lead on VI and Boris on best PM

  21. UK Voting Intention:
    CON 41% (-4)
    LAB 39% (+5)
    LD 7% (-1) GRN 4% (-) SNP 4% (-) BXP 1% (+1) OTH 4% (-) 1018 respondents, fieldwork 3 June 2020.
    Changes w/ 22-26 May 2020. SURVATION

    Labour in front surely just round the corner.

  22. Survation are playing catch up. This is the fifth poll this week. 2 show Labour down. Two show Labour up. 1 shows tories down. A lot if noise if you ask me

  23. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the government and little enthusiasm for the opposition either.

    Starmer and Labour might well benefit by default from the government becoming increasingly unpopular. But it’s clear that cultural issues such as the BLM protests (following on from Brexit) are going to become increasingly important determinants of how people vote. Starmer has a big opportunity but also needs to tread a tightrope.

  24. As it is Survation has published another poll. Tories lead up to six from 2

  25. Poll average in the week before Keir Starmer became Leader:

    CON 52%, LAB 28%, LD 7%

    Poll average in the past week (changes since the week before Starmer won):

    CON 43% (-9), LAB 39% (+11), LD 8% (+1)

    The Tories’ average poll lead has fallen from 23pts to 4pts in just 10 weeks.

  26. I’m not sure that there is “little enthusiasm” for the opposition at the moment. Starmer is in the +20s for approval rating, we haven’t seen figures like that for a Labour leader since Blair.

    I think it’s more that there is little enthusiasm for the “who’s up, who’s down?” parliamentary antics that a lot of people mistake for politics. People right now don’t want to engage with the question of how they’d vote in another election, partly because they know it’s four years away and the forecasts are looking pretty grim, so they’d rather focus on surviving in the here and now.

    Or maybe I’m just projecting my own opinions onto the wider electorate?

  27. You do wonder why a leader with 50% of the country giving them the thumbs up which is a first for Labour since Oct 2007, can only galvanise 36-38% of the vote

  28. HH was right re taking the knee and BLM.

    A poll shows that 67% agree with Boris’s stance in both not doing so and not being bullied into doing it.

    I also noticed that Millwall, Wigan, Middlesbrough players didn’t.

  29. The poll did not ask if people thought Boris should be bullied into it

  30. As I said: 67% agree with Boris’s stance (not to take the knee or be bullied into doing so):


  31. The graphic in mail article says Redfield & Wilton asked ‘Do you agree with the PMs stancing on taking a knee’

    Anything else has been unsurprisingly embellished by the Dail Mail

  32. While the Daily Mail probably isn’t quite as repulsive as it was when the utterly vile Paul Dacre was in charge, I still take everything the paper reports with a bucket load of salt.

    I guess it shows how today the uk really does live as two separate tribes but I haven’t come across anyone in the UK who isn’t supportive of BLM.

    Whether you can compare stop and search on the streets of London to being pulled over and killed in the streets of Minneapolis or wherever, I’m not quite sure but the message the Mail was trying to convey was that the BLM has no support in the UK – and whilst that might be true of their bigoted and semi-retarded readers, it’s contrary to the message I’ve been hearing

  33. TJ

    I think the main point here is the distinction between the slogan ‘Black Lives Matter’ and the organisation ‘Black Lives Matter’.
    IMO (and I think this is born out by what evidence there is out there) very few people disagree with the main BLM slogan but a very large amount (probably a majority) of people would not endorse the views they hold in a wider sense. These obviously weren’t so well known to start with but have started to become more prominent in recent weeks with various news outlets covering it as well as BBC/Sky personnel no longer wearing BLM badges.

  34. I have but its the same divide in British politics we are used to. The young middle class metropolitan liberals and white working class in former pit villages

  35. I would not disagree with Democracy’s analysis with regards to the distinction but surely the only people who wouldn’t be appalled by the mass killing of African Americans by members of the US police force – and that’s what this is about – would be racists – people who don’t think black lives matter

    What’s interesting about the daily mail was that arguably the only decent thing they have ever done in their miserable history was to unmask the killers of Stephen Lawrence. It’s seems bizarre that a paper which took such a strong stand against a bunch of racist killers would leap to the defence of American policeman often caught on camera of doing the same.

    I think the pulling down of statues, particularly that of Winston Churchill – the man who did more than any other to prevent a black massacre in Europe by defeating Germany – is absolutely appalling but it’s not quite as bad as those who seek to justify the indiscriminate killing of black men by police in the US – which is what black lives matter is all about

  36. Matt: precisely. Boris’s stance was just that.

    Tim J: “I haven’t come across anyone who isn’t supportive of BLM”

    That doesn’t surprise me and merely shows it is yourself not the Mail who is out of touch with the majority, given that 67% oppose BLM’s stance.

    55% of black males killed are of course killed by other black males. So there’s your ‘mass killing.’

  37. ‘I would not disagree with Democracy’s analysis with regards to the distinction but surely the only people who wouldn’t be appalled by the mass killing of African Americans by members of the US police force – and that’s what this is about – would be racists – people who don’t think black lives matter’

    Yes I would think so – the problem is is that BLM have gone further than making themselves a single issue pressure group and gone on to express views in a wider political sense that go beyond the single issue of racism, views that many/most will not agree with. IMO black people generally are not well served by BLM really as if they kept their message purely to the core issue of racism it would be able to draw upon very broad support from the majority of people and would be more likely to achieve its main aims. As it stands, large amounts of people will be uncomfortable with supporting them so their support base will be limited.

  38. The poll didn’t say that though. You’re assuming the majority of the British public know that. The poll leaves people to interpret what Boris stance was. I guarantee there were voters out there who probably thought Boris stance was taking a knee is a good idea

  39. I wasn’t using the poll as a basis for my comment.
    But as you mention it – yes there could be some in that position but I doubt there were many – most of those who didn’t know his view were probably in the ‘neutral’ or ‘don’t know’ categories – 20%. 38% strongly agree? You don’t tend to get people say that unless they at least have a good idea as to what it is they are agreeing with.
    In any case it’s interesting that 67% of the population agree with a view of a UK PM on any issue – its not as if the Tories are getting those sort of numbers in VI polls. Any ideas on sample sizes etc?

  40. Re: Lancs
    It depends on what you define as BLM’s stance

    If you mean disagree with their central contention that too many African Americans are getting stopped and killed by US police and that’s it out of order – I would have thought the majority of British would agree with that

    If you mean pulling down statues, denegrading Churchill and comparing being stopped in the US to being stopped in the UK – then I imagine the majority of UK citizens would support that

    But I do object to your central contention which seems little more that painting the British as a bunch of f***ing assholes. We’re not that bad are we?

  41. Sorry Democracy that was meant for Lancs

  42. Obviously for the pulling down statues etc I meant the majority of uk citizens would NOT support that – and neither do i

  43. No problem – that makes sense now!
    BTW I’ve answered my own question on sample size etc – it was 2000.
    Full details here – including results on a second question they asked. https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/clear-majority-of-uk-public-agree-with-boris-johnsons-view-on-taking-the-knee/

  44. @ Lancs

    “I also noticed that Millwall, Wigan, Middlesbrough players didn’t.”

    Well Wigan were against Hull and Bristol City- saw it on Latics TV. Maybe it takes a while for things to reach Wigan- New Romantics only arrived last week 🙂

  45. Thanks for that i was trying to find the tables with no lucj

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