Gordon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6807 (11.7%)
Labour: 3441 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 19030 (32.7%)
SNP: 27717 (47.7%)
UKIP: 1166 (2%)
MAJORITY: 8687 (14.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. First elected as MP for Gordon in 2015. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9111 (19%)
Lab: 9811 (20%)
LDem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22%)
Oth: 1451 (3%)
MAJ: 6748 (14%)
2005
Con: 7842 (18%)
Lab: 8982 (20%)
LDem: 20008 (45%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Oth: 508 (1%)
MAJ: 11026 (25%)
2001*
Con: 8049 (23%)
Lab: 4730 (14%)
LDem: 15928 (46%)
SNP: 5760 (16%)
Oth: 534 (2%)
MAJ: 7879 (23%)
1997
Con: 11002 (26%)
Lab: 4350 (10%)
LDem: 17999 (43%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Oth: 459 (1%)
MAJ: 6997 (17%)

2015 Candidates
COLIN CLARK (Conservative) Educated at Turriff Academy and Heriot-Watt University. Farmer.
BRADEN DAVY (Labour) Born Bishop Auckland. Educated at Hirst High School and Durham University. Parliamentary assistant and former McDonalds manager.
CHRISTINE JARDINE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Braidfield High School and Glasgow university. Journalist. Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 by-election and Scotland region 2014 European election.
EMILY SANTOS (UKIP) Nurse.
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former Economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
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Comments - 726 Responses on “Gordon”
  1. Goodness me, calm yourself plopwell

    At the local election the result for wards covered by Gordon:
    Conservatives 15700 votes
    SNP 13300 votes

    Ruth Davidson on twitter: “On Thursday’s boxes we were ahead of the SNP. Game on.”

  2. I think that it very much depends on the campaign and how successful the Conservatives are at the general election nationally.

    The Conservatives can win it if they are around 15% behind the SNP nationally.

    Add in a reasonable local council election result with Ruth Davidson’s comments, a relatively good Leeave vote and a good No vote here, and I do believe that it is a possibility.

  3. I think the Tories should hope for a strong second, in which case they could take it the next time assuming they don’t collapse nationally (entirely possible, to be fair).

  4. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/alex-salmond-accuses-ruth-davidson-making-vainglorious-boasts/

    I doubt the Tories will win this seat, but will high profile claims at least encourage unionists to form around the Tories not the Lib Dems — and give them that second place?

  5. Ld should hopefully pick this up at the obvious challengers

  6. Not a chance LD will win this. Tories maybe.

  7. Is there a LD candidate in place yet?

    Barring a major slump in the SNP vote, would expect Salmond to hold on fairly comfortably.

  8. Yes, David Evans is the Lib Dem candidate

  9. Yes, all the unionists might vote Conservative this time instead of LibDem like last time.

  10. The Lib Dems were so far behind last time that tactical voting for them seems pointless.

    But still well ahead of the Conservatives.

  11. Let’s imagine Salmond loses a huge chunk of voters who stay at home and only polls 20000. Lets then imagine half the LibDem vote switches directly to the Tories. Salmond still wins by 4000 votes.

    Get your money on Salmond to retain this seat

  12. Seeing as the debate that’s been announced seems to be “senior party figures” rather than leaders what are the chances of Salmond being picked for the SNP?

  13. He has to be firm favourite but the Tories have been performing well in the area over the last couple of years

  14. I have read comments by some people on this site projecting an SNP loss here. Loss to whom?

    This seat is not like Edinburgh West or East Dunbartonshire where it is a clear SNP/ LD contest as the Conservatives outpolled the Lib Dems here a fortnight ago.

    Neither is the Lib Dem vote going to collapse to nothing.
    I think that the Conservatives will come second here but the Lib Dems will retain around 20%, Alex Salmond’s vote may fall to the low 40’s% but considering that there will be some people here who still vote Labour….there are simply not enough votes left for the Conservatives to win.

  15. Dalek

    Pardon me saying so, but that’s a very simplistic description of the situation!

    Furthermore, not only did Conservatives outpoll Lib Dems in the locals (and at Holyrood last year) but they outpolled SNP as well in the locals two weeks ago.

  16. I’m not projecting a loss here (though hoping for one I confess), but if there is one it will be to Conservative, no questions. And even if there isn’t one, I don’t expect them to be too far behind SNP.

    You have to go by so much evidence / different aspects in Scotland (as you know). Even the 2015 results are / can be a bit of a red herring to use as a starting point in the normal way. 2016 Holyrood results are definitely better – but again not the only consideration.

  17. Conservatives took 38% of the vote here in the locals on a naional result of 25%, they’re now polling at around 29% in the polls.

    The Yes vote here was 38% and the constituency had a big Leave vote relative to the rest of Scotland. Given that the SNP are currently polling at around 42% this is a clear we get for the Conservatives, re-affirmed by their general confidence about their prospects here and Alex Salmond’s quite concerned response to Conservative threats.

    This is certainly shaping up to be the largest SNP to Conservative swing in the country.

  18. Clearly a conservative-snp marginal* but let’s not forget Alex Salmond’s significant personal vote in this area (Aberdeenshire East was the safest SNP constituency in 2011 after all) and some confused anti-Salmond tactical voting over to the Lib Dems, which may dilute the residual Conservative vote here.

  19. What’s the Conservatives’ activity / ground game like here NTY or others?

  20. Words can’t describe how delicious it would be for Salmond to lose his seat.

  21. It probably won’t happen. Peter Crerar knows Scotland well and thinks there is a strong personal vote here despite the good Tory local election results.
    I don’t want to be too personal, however, watching these smug “recordless” leading SNP figures anxiously watching recounts would still make me open a bottle.

  22. @ Bt Says… no clue: they’re polling well in Aberdeen South and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine apparently and look set to be clear favourites to pick up both those seats.

    I would assume they’re doing well in Gordon given Ruth Davidson’s very confident speech in Inverurie following the locals where she argued the Conservatives are in clear contention here, but I have no on the ground confirmation.

  23. Electoral Calculus has Salmond holding on with about 40% of the vote, with the Lib Dems on about 30% and the Tories on 25%. Unsurprisingly, they expect Labour to lose their deposit.

  24. Electoral calculus is utter trash: it’s based on a universal swing from 2015.

    The Conservatives took 38% of the vote here at the 2017 local election on a national vote of 25%. No surprise that electoral calculus are miles off the mark yet again.

    I’m calling this as a Conservative GAIN from SNP. You heard it here first 😉

  25. A fool and his money are easily parted.

  26. No need for that now scotty.

  27. If you think electoral calculas is utter trash…

  28. Delicious.

  29. Since I was out canvassing in Ellon on Saturday as part of a huge SNP campaign team I have the advantage of knowing the scores on the doors.

    Salmond is hugely popular. Universally referred to by his first name. He will win by a majority of 7,000 plus.

  30. An SNP Councillor told a friend of mine that the SNP expect to lose all their seats in the north-east, except for Gordon. Can’t see it happening but that’s what he said.
    A huge SNP campaign team. Hmm. In a seat the SNP are confident of holding. Meanwhile in East Dunbartonshire the SNP campaign seems to be anything but huge. Do the SNP not know anything about targeting?
    Today at least one personally-addressed communication came through the post from the Lib Dems and another one came in the junk mail. Meanwhile John Nicolson has been down in Darlington taking part in a radio programme which gave him 20 seconds of broadcasting time.

  31. Scotslass
    How much sign is there of Lib Dem campaigning in Gordon constituency?

  32. “An SNP Councillor told a friend of mine that the SNP expect to lose all their seats in the north-east, except for Gordon.”

    They expect to lose Aberdeen North?

  33. Yes….SNP loses in Banff & Buchan, Angus and Aberdeen North…that is a crazy prediction.

    Angus was extremely marginal on its new boundaries in 2005 where it changed from being a coastal constituency to include more of the Perthshire borders.

    Unlike Moray and Perth, the SNP have become more intrenched in what was a highly marginal constituency.

  34. My point is that the SNP are polling more strongly in Angus than Moray or Perth. Last year Angus North & Mearns and Angus South remained safe SNP seats when Moray and both the Perthshire seats had their majorities slashed.

  35. That’s not exactly accurate as Angus North & Mearns had a similar SNP majority Perthshire North and Moray, but it’s important to keep in mind that the Westminster boundaries are significantly different and on those boundaries Angus would be classed as a safer snp seat than either Angus constituency in the Scottish Parliament.

  36. The Tories consistently came fourth in every Assemby Election in Edinburgh Central, yet in 2017 Ruth Davidson was able to come through and win. There are all sorts of caveats, but it does show that in the present state of Scottish politics unlikely results are possible. Not necessarily probable but certainly possible.

  37. “Assemby” Election???

  38. I think that the Conservatives will defeat Salmond…

  39. Exit poll has this going Lib Dem

  40. Con Gain.

  41. Sorry, Woof.
    Stupid mistake.
    But my main point was vindicated

  42. One of a number of brilliant Conservative results on a generally bad night.

  43. @ Paul D

    “Exit poll has this going Lib Dem”

    Yes, I noted that at the time. LibDems finished 4th here in the end!

  44. Did anybody see Alex Salmonds defiant speech following the declaration? He inferred that he would be making some kind of comeback but elections to the Scottish Parliament are still nearly 4 years away. He is in the political unless he wins a Westminster / Holyrood by election or there is another snap general election.

  45. Who would have thought the day would come to see Alex Salmond losing his seat!

  46. “Who would have thought the day would come to see Alex Salmond losing his seat!”

    @ WOOF – well if you look just a bit upthread you’ll notice that myself and plopwellian tory believed that this would be a Conservative gain.

  47. Hard to gauge how much trouble the SNP is in.
    I think the Tories need to capitalise on their Scotland results, given the narrative of disappointment overall.
    I hope another tranche of SNP seats now go down next time.
    Whatever happens, if Indy Ref 2 is killed off, that’s a good thing in my view.
    Does anyone know why the swing was so high here?

  48. Dalek: “Yes….SNP loses in Banff & Buchan, Angus and Aberdeen North…that is a crazy prediction.”

    Turns out they lost two out of the three!

    I wonder how big a factor the Scottish Tories’ stance on the CFP was in coastal areas of Aberdeenshire

  49. It was Aberdeen North that I regarded as crazy…the other two were only outlandish.

    It would be interesting to see what impact a Jo Swinson leadership would have on the recent Scottish Conservative success who seem to have hoovered up much of the Scottish Lib Dem vote. A recovering Lib Dem vote could reduce the Conservatives vote by far more than the SNP due to the Lib Dems ultra unionist stance.

  50. Perhaps Alex Salmond will return as party leader of the SNP if Nicola Sturgeon resigns following the next Scottish Parliamentary elections.

    Frankly speaking the party are heading on a collison course for disaster. At the very least it is virtually guaranteed that the pro-independence lobby will lose their majority at Holyrood to be surpassed by the unionists. If the next Holyrood election is anything like the general election in Scotland then Nicola Sturgeon will probably be forced out.

    Where can the party go from here?

    Stick to their guns and inevitably lose their mandate for a second referendum at the next Scottish Parliamentary elections (bad)? Make an embarassing climb-down on a second referendum on Scottish independence (also bad)? Or try to force one through illegially without the support of the UK Parliament (worse)?

    Can anyone see a way out for them?

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