Gordon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6807 (11.7%)
Labour: 3441 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 19030 (32.7%)
SNP: 27717 (47.7%)
UKIP: 1166 (2%)
MAJORITY: 8687 (14.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. First elected as MP for Gordon in 2015. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9111 (19%)
Lab: 9811 (20%)
LDem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22%)
Oth: 1451 (3%)
MAJ: 6748 (14%)
2005
Con: 7842 (18%)
Lab: 8982 (20%)
LDem: 20008 (45%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Oth: 508 (1%)
MAJ: 11026 (25%)
2001*
Con: 8049 (23%)
Lab: 4730 (14%)
LDem: 15928 (46%)
SNP: 5760 (16%)
Oth: 534 (2%)
MAJ: 7879 (23%)
1997
Con: 11002 (26%)
Lab: 4350 (10%)
LDem: 17999 (43%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Oth: 459 (1%)
MAJ: 6997 (17%)

2015 Candidates
COLIN CLARK (Conservative) Educated at Turriff Academy and Heriot-Watt University. Farmer.
BRADEN DAVY (Labour) Born Bishop Auckland. Educated at Hirst High School and Durham University. Parliamentary assistant and former McDonalds manager.
CHRISTINE JARDINE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Braidfield High School and Glasgow university. Journalist. Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 by-election and Scotland region 2014 European election.
EMILY SANTOS (UKIP) Nurse.
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former Economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
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Comments - 726 Responses on “Gordon”
  1. NTY,

    You are throwing your money away. There are seats in Scotland where the bookie outsider might win but this isn’t one of them.
    In this constituency over the last few general elections the Tories have polled pretty poorly, most recently at 11.7%. Yet you now think they are going to shoot up to 42%. You are not being realistic.

  2. @ Scottyboy – The latest opinion poll has the SNP on 44% of the vote and Conservatives on 33% of the vote in Scotland.

    The Conservatives have not polled in excess of 20% of the vote in Scotland since the 1997 general election, never mind in excess of 30% of the vote (the last time that happened was in 1979).

    Our best comparison is the result in Aberdeenshire East in 2016, where the Conservatives took 29% of the vote on the constituency vote whilst taking 22% of the vote nationally. If they are on 33% of the vote nationally, and Gordon is better boundaries for them than Aberdeenshire East where they polled 7% above average it’s unthinkable.

    Where do you think the Tories are gaining votes in Scotland? Glasgow?

    As I’ve said the SNP vote is inflated in the North East relative to the 2014 independence referendum results across the rest of Scotland: and this constituency was a good one for the No camp in 2014 and Leave camp in 2016.

    So we should see an above average vote increase here in comparison to the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

  3. it’s not unthinkable* that they might gain this seat with over 40% of the vote.

  4. NTY,

    I am not disputing for one second that the Conservative vote will go up here, frankly I would be astonished if it didn’t. Winning the seat is a different matter entirely.

  5. @ Scottyboy – Well that’s my reasoning: as I’ve said it is an outside chance based on current polling, but I do believe it’s the Conservatives have a good possibility of gaining the seat.

  6. If you want to venture your dosh on a Scottish Conservative gain at a fair price Stirling is worthy of consideration.

  7. This has the best return out of those I’ve considered (that includes Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock and Stirling).

    Stirling had a big Remain vote in 2016 and a weaker No vote in 2014 in comparison to this constituency, the SNP vote in that constituency has also been fairly resilient relative to this one. All that in mind I’m putting my money on Gordon.

  8. 2016 notional-
    SNP 43
    CON 30
    LD 19
    LAB 8

  9. PLOPWELLIAN TORY
    I have put money on the Conservatives winning this.
    April 29th, 2017 at 4:23 pm

    Don’t put any more on! You need all your money for your university fees which of course you wouldn’t have to pay if you lived and studied in Scotland.

  10. Hopefully my advice will be a profitable one for you Plopwell!

  11. Not quite, but if it happened it would be the defining moment of the results night.

  12. And more high profile than Wishart would be Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh potentially losing her seat.

  13. I put 50 quid on Hornsey Wood Green two years ago. Love me a 19 per cent swing,

  14. Yes, as the SNP have found out it’s all very easy not being in charge. It’s bloody difficult being the status quo. We cant all be Fidel Castro

  15. NTY UK
    Hopefully my advice will be a profitable one for you Plopwell!
    April 29th, 2017 at 5:18 pm

    How will you be able to sleep at night thinking of poor ploppy sitting on a corner begging with his hat in front of him trying to recoup his last fifty bucks? To think that he had a glittering political career in front of him..

  16. @ Scottyboy – his loss or gain, not mine.

  17. I understand the logic that says the Tories who have seen four polls where they have been 28%+ (twice what they got in 2015) and in general have been the consolidator of unionist votes — might win a constituency like Moray — 50/50 split on the EU and where they are the challenger and the last unionist party to hold the seat before the SNP, even if I have my doubts whether that will come to pass, I can understand why others might think so.

    On the other hand, I don’t get the logic that says a heavily Remain seat that they are 12% in, where the clear unionist challenger has 21% more and where the SNP candidate got 36% more, is remotely a Tory prospect.

  18. Gordon was 55.5% Remain. Compared with the rest of Scotland it’s no where near being a “heavily Remain seat”.

  19. DW
    I understand the logic that says the Tories who have seen four polls where they have been 28%+ (twice what they got in 2015) and in general have been the consolidator of unionist votes — might win a constituency like Moray — 50/50 split on the EU and where they are the challenger and the last unionist party to hold the seat before the SNP, even if I have my doubts whether that will come to pass, I can understand why others might think so.
    On the other hand, I don’t get the logic that says a heavily Remain seat that they are 12% in, where the clear unionist challenger has 21% more and where the SNP candidate got 36% more, is remotely a Tory prospect.
    April 29th, 2017 at 7:40 pm

    Perhaps all the LibDem folks will vote Tory. That would give them 45%. All that is needed now is the SNP to lose a few percent and hey presto a Tory gain.

  20. It depends on whether the Libs or Tories can make the dodgier bar charts really

  21. Dalek – although this is the first GE since the Tory advance in Scotland so the 1 MP v 7 MSPs comparison doesn’t stand.

    It only would if they only return 1 MP in June.

  22. NTY – no Wishart would definitely be the more high profile loss. He’s been the Spokesman for years when the SNP only had a few MPs. Isn’t he still the Chief Whip?

    Plus Tasmina was a Tory after all.

  23. Incidentally I almost agree with Dalek’s figures.

    I’d imagine the SNP will lose a few but still win well over 45 seats.

  24. That is absurdly optimistic for the Tories – I don’t think they won that many seats in Scotland in any of the Thatcher elections. Par for the Tories is probably 6 or 7 seats – the three border seats + WAK are fairly secure, and then there are a handful of seats where they aren’t dead certs but will most likely pick up a couple. But even if they picked up every single one of those, they wouldn’t get to 14.

    The locals will clarify the situation a bit. In fact the locals are fascinating because, as they are run under STV, they should reveal voters’ true preferences rather than being obscured by tactical voting. Perhaps strong second places in the likes of East Renfrewshire or, pushing their luck, the likes of Aberdeen South, might help them attract support from Labour & Lib Dem voters in the general.

  25. Oh come on. That’s absurdly ramping Tory chances.

    If they get more than six in Scotland they should be finding the most expensive champagne in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s cellars and popping it open.

    I’d be sincerely surprised to see them win anything more than the three border seats and West Aberdeenshire, with maybe one of the other northern seats into the mix. It’d be shocking if they won the entirety of the non-highland northern seats, which is essentially what you all are predicting.

    Let’s try to ground ourselves at least very slightly in reality.

  26. I don’t quite believe it either, but if the polls continue to show the Tories above 30% in Scotland we have to start taking them seriously. We went through all this two years ago, when, right up until polling day, people were still expecting the SNP to finish on maybe 40 seats tops, and in the event they carried all before them.

    I’m slightly more bullish on your chances than you but I don’t see them getting into double-figures. Six or seven seats is probably par.

  27. I put the Panelbase poll into Electoral Calculus to see what would happen (that’s: SNP 44%, LAB 13%, CON 33%, LDEM 5%), then tried again with the Survation one (SNP 43%, LAB 18%, CON28%, LDEM 9%)

    Results for the first one: 26 Con seats, 0 LD, 0 Lab, remainder SNP

    For the second: 25 Con seats, 0 LD, 0 LAB, remainder SNP

    So… you may in fact be right. Or even underestimating. But I do think that 1) LD vote share will be hyper-localized, so them getting 0 isn’t much of a chance in my opinion. The idea of a Con gain in O&S is absurd. 2) SNP will probably fall back more in some seats than others, and Cons will gain more in some than others. I could see them doing extremely well in, say, Berwickshire, but not getting the necessary votes in Aberdeen South.

    Also worth remembering that 42-46% (current SNP polling) is often enough to eke out more wins than would otherwise be thought. A lot rests on Labour and even LD shares.

  28. Mr Pitt:

    Electoral Calculus
    The first of those polls gives 14 Con seats and 1 LD
    The second gives 10 Con seats and 3 LD

    Scotland Votes
    The first of those polls gives 12 Con seats and 1 LD
    The second gives 8 Con seats, 3 LD and 1 Lab

    The last of those 4 predictions strikes me as most likely, with 4 LD being more likely than 9 Con.

  29. My proposals are based on my 2016 Scottish Parliament election notionals sorted by UK Parliamentary constituency boundaries, which is available from here: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10073/target-seat-lists?page=2

  30. Sorting the constituencies in terms of likelihood to vote Conservative based on current opinion polling (with brackets representing the approximate vote share behind the SNP required nationally for the Conservatives to pick up each respective seat):

    EXTREMELY LIKELY
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (35%)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (35%)

    VERY LIKELY
    Dumfries and Galloway (26%)
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (26%)

    LIKELY
    Aberdeen South (20%)
    East Renfrewshire (20%)
    Moray (19%)
    Perth and North Perthshire (18%)
    Edinburgh South West (17%)

    TOO CLOSE TO CALL
    Gordon (15%) – learning Conservative
    Ochil and South Perthshire (15%) – leaning Conservative
    Stirling (13%) – leaning SNP

    UNLIKELY
    Angus (11%)
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (11%)

    VERY UNLIKELY
    Central Ayrshire (9%)
    Edinburgh South (9%)

    EXTREMELY UNLIKELY (requiring to tie/almost tie with the SNP):
    Argyll and Bute
    Banff and Buchan
    East Dunbartonshire
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

  31. I believe that the Conservatives do stand a chance of taking Angus and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock. I wouldn’t say they stand much of a chance in Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South.

  32. Conservative ramping at it’s finest!

    The Tories have no chance whatsoever in….

    Gordon
    Angus
    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
    Central Ayrshire
    Argyll and Bute
    Banff and Buchan
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

    Labour are throwing their full Scottish resources at East Lothian, Edinburgh South and East Renfrewshire which will have the effect of splitting the unionist vote so the Conservatives chances are diminished but not completely extinguished.

    Conservatives have outside chances in…

    Stirling
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Moray

    and fairly good chances in….

    Aberdeen South
    Perth and North Perthshire
    Edinburgh South West

    They have excellent chances in…

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Dumfries and Galloway
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    but please, gonna stop saying they will win Gordon! It’s not going to happen.

  33. So far as I can tell my suggestion is backed up by the 2016 Scottish Parliament election results and current opinion polling. Your suggestion seems to be pure guess work.

  34. In this constituency at the last General election in 2015…

    SNP 48% LibDem 33% Con 12%. Show me where on current opinion polling the Conservatives are going to win this seat never mind the fact they are up against Alex Salmond.

  35. @ ScottyBoy –

    Because in 2016 Gordon had the largest swing over to the Conservatives in the whole of Scotland.

    I have linked to my notional figures for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election results by Westminster constituency. In Gordon the result was:
    SNP 43%
    CON 30%
    LD 19%
    LAB 8%

    When you factor in the large 2014 referendum No vote here (62% No) alongside a decent Leave vote (44.5% Leave) it is likely that there will be an above-average swing to the Conservatives relative to the 2016 election results, which would result in them gaining the constituency based on current polling.

  36. NTY UK
    I’m sure I’ve mentioned it on this thread before but for reference Gordon had a 62% No vote in 2014 and a 44% Leave vote in 2016.
    Given that the last two opinion polls have the SNP on 43-44% of the vote nationally (which is down 1-2% on the 2014 Yes vote) I would put them on around 38% of the vote here, taking in to account an inflated SNP vote in the North East of Scotland in comparison to the 2014 referendum results, Alex Salmond’s personal vote here and the quite strong Leave vote here relative to the rest of Scotland.
    As I’ve said the constituencies which overlap Gordon in the Scottish Parliament had one of, if not the, strongest SNP to Conservative swings in Scotland in 2016. The Liberal Democrats only managed 19% of the vote on the constituency vote in Aberdeenshire East polling on 8% of the vote nationally, in a constituency where they were seen as the tactical favourites (similar to Gordon). Given their general decline in the opinion polls they should be DOWN in Gordon relative to 2016.
    So that brings me to the Conservatives gaining this constituency based on current opinion polling. Obviously it’s an outside bet, but I believe based on current polling it is very much a possibility, and I do believe that they can win it fairly comfortably:
    CON 42
    SNP 38
    LD 16
    LAB 4
    April 26th, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    If you think those are going to be the returned figures in this constituency you are going to be very disappointed.

  37. Victories are earned: I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Tories don’t pick up Gordon, although it would be nice to get back £300 from my bet and to see the look on Alex Salmond’s face.

  38. You should never let personal feelings about a party or a politician dictate your political betting. If you do, you will lose.

  39. @ Scottyboy – my bet is based on the healthy odds in Gordon, it has nothing to do with my politics.

  40. NTY

    How different is this Gordon seat from the 1997-2005 version? IIRC that seat had a very large notional Tory majority in 1992.

  41. @H.H – The old Gordon constituency was better for the Conservatives than the current one, however it was also better for the SNP.

    The old seat stretched up to Turriff and Keith to the north-west, excluding the Aberdonian suburbs of Bridge of Don, Danestone, Dyce and Stoneywood which form a part of the current constituency.

    Turriff and Keith are traditional SNP heartlands situated within modern day constituencies of Banff & Buchan and Moray respectively. These sorts of areas usually had the SNP ahead with the Conservatives in second place. In contrast, Danestone, Bridge of Don, Dyce and Stoneywood are traditionally more accommodating for Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

    Today there’s the added layer of the independence referendum. Danestone and Bridge of Don returned strong No votes of approximately 65% and 61% respectively, cancelling out a weaker No vote in Dyce and Stoneywood (of approximately 51% No and 53% No respectively) to bring the area as a whole down slightly below the Gordon average.

    Turriff and Keith both had much weaker No votes of around 56% No, however these are the sorts of areas where the Conservatives will be looking to make their strongest advance in the North East of Scotland as the two areas had reasonable Leave votes in the 2016 EU referendum, compared to a stronger Remain vote in Aberdeen’s northern suburbs.

    Overall the former Gordon boundaries would be more accommodating for the Conservatives over the current boundaries, however I wouldn’t say that the difference is significant.

  42. Also, as of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election the Conservatives are making a decent recovery in Aberdeen’s northern suburbs where they are now the largest unionist party. This is particularly true for Danestone and Bridge of Don.

  43. Thank you for the detailed explanation.

    My point being that a notional Tory vote share of 48% in 1992 must mean that there’s a lot of latent Tory potential here despite their pitiful 2015 performance, even allowing for worse boundaries.

  44. Yes I believe so. That is why I believe that this constituency could go Conservative based on current polling.

  45. And the LibDems to decrease by the same amount?

  46. If you are biased in any way you should not be placing money on the outcome as your analysis will be flawed.
    However, good luck with that.

  47. One of the big reasons there was such a big swing in Aberdeenshire East last year was Alex Salmond standing down as an MSP. He had a whopping majority in 2011 due to his personal vote as First Minster, and that was always going to turn into an SNP-Conservative swing.

    A similar thing happened in Banff & Buchan when he stood down as an MP in 2010, with a swing of 10.6% in an election where there wasn’t much movement in vote share Scotland-wide.

    Of course, there will be a big, big swing due to the Conservatives taking over as the challenging party (as occurred in Aberdeenshire East). However, in my mind, Salmond’s local popularity as an MP should be enough to keep him the seat.

    It will be interesting though, as I can’t recall Alex Salmond ever being put on the back foot in an election campaign.

  48. The Conservatives are talking up their chances that they can win Gordon…

    Ruth Davidson said on twitter “The @ScotTories are working hard across Gordon and @Colin_J_Clark Will make an excellent MP.”

  49. 10 reasons why the Conservatives won’t win this.

    1) They require an 18% swing.
    2) Alex Salmond has never lost an election anywhere he has stood.
    3) The 2015 result makes the Lib Dems the obvious unionist challenger, and Lib Dem members will be waving bar charts in voters’ faces to prove it.
    4) They require an 18% swing. (Yes I’ve said this twice but it’s such an important point that it requires repeating.)
    5) 2012-era Buzzfeed listicles are annoying.
    6) The Tories have never held this seat.
    7) This seat hates the Tories so much it’s named after a former Labour Prime Minister.
    8) Thinking of ten different points is really hard.
    9) Er…
    10) That’s it.

  50. I think a Tory gain in this seat is relatively unlikely this time as they prob need to get into 2nd first, but I would dispute the relevance of Polltroll’s point 2. Sure, Salmond has a good record, but Scottish politics has changed massively post-2014. These days unionist voters are extremely unlikely to vote for him and in fact likely to be motivated to vote tactically against him.

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