Gordon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6807 (11.7%)
Labour: 3441 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 19030 (32.7%)
SNP: 27717 (47.7%)
UKIP: 1166 (2%)
MAJORITY: 8687 (14.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. First elected as MP for Gordon in 2015. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9111 (19%)
Lab: 9811 (20%)
LDem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22%)
Oth: 1451 (3%)
MAJ: 6748 (14%)
2005
Con: 7842 (18%)
Lab: 8982 (20%)
LDem: 20008 (45%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Oth: 508 (1%)
MAJ: 11026 (25%)
2001*
Con: 8049 (23%)
Lab: 4730 (14%)
LDem: 15928 (46%)
SNP: 5760 (16%)
Oth: 534 (2%)
MAJ: 7879 (23%)
1997
Con: 11002 (26%)
Lab: 4350 (10%)
LDem: 17999 (43%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Oth: 459 (1%)
MAJ: 6997 (17%)

2015 Candidates
COLIN CLARK (Conservative) Educated at Turriff Academy and Heriot-Watt University. Farmer.
BRADEN DAVY (Labour) Born Bishop Auckland. Educated at Hirst High School and Durham University. Parliamentary assistant and former McDonalds manager.
CHRISTINE JARDINE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Braidfield High School and Glasgow university. Journalist. Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 by-election and Scotland region 2014 European election.
EMILY SANTOS (UKIP) Nurse.
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former Economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Links
Comments - 726 Responses on “Gordon”
  1. “I doubt it had much to do with Brexit, though the fact Leave did best in the SNP’s traditional heartlands tells you a lot about how the contemporary SNP is not a great fit for the voters there.”

    These were three constituencies captured in 1987 and remained marginal in 1992. In fact there were swings to the Tories in 1992. Obviously the SNP won these seats by large margins in 1997 but they could never really be described as SNP heartlands. As early as 1999 there was a strong challenge from Labour in Moray who outpolled the Conservatives throughout much of the naughtys.

    In many respect, the SNP heartlands are now constituencies in the central belt gained from Labour.

  2. Yes – the swing is towards a rural-urban unionist-nationalist split.

  3. “Turnout:
    Banff & District: 28.3%
    Inverurie & District: 30.4%
    Turnout in Scotland in 2012 local elections: 39.6%”

    It’s important to remember that both wards are more affluent that the Scottish average, and so would be expected to have a higher-than-average turnout. Also we are set to have an increased turnout at the 2017 local council elections compared to 2012. A direct comparison here to the Scottish national turnout is pretty meaningless.

  4. Incidentally Runnymede’s 100% right on the fishing issue, but my money’s on the fishermen getting totally shafted as part of a wider single market trade deal. It needn’t be the case however given how Norway has protected its fishing waters despite being in EEA.

  5. Fisherman getting shafted as well now? And here I thought they’d be the only group to benefit from Brexit…

  6. ‘my money’s on the fishermen getting totally shafted as part of a wider single market trade deal’

    Again, I do wonder if you aren’t confusing what you want to happen with what will happen

  7. “Again, I do wonder if you aren’t confusing what you want to happen with what will happen”

    95% of your comments fall under the same category…

  8. “Again, I do wonder if you aren’t confusing what you want to happen with what will happen”

    Where did I say I wanted that to happen? I think the fishermen have had a very raw deal from EU membership as it happens. I’m just being realistic. They only have a tiny voice these days and zero political impact. It’s not hard to envisage them being sold down the river to sweeten a deal eg on car manufacturing.

    Incidentally Runnymede – you posted the other day about how bad I am at predictions….I recall you predicted a Trump victory (see Western Isles thread) when I said Clinton was going to win…perhaps I’ll be right and you wrong at long last 🙂

  9. Did I?

  10. For the first time I’m getting the feeling Trump might nick it. The polls don’t account for shy Trumpsters, nor the differential turnout caused by the enthusiasm gap between supporters of the two candidates.

    I’d put £50 on it as a hedge, but it would pain me to know I could have had much better odds on him a few weeks ago.

  11. @NTY UK Local council by-elections due in Banff & District and Inverurie & District on 3 November: both should go SNP though there’s a slim chance that Inverurie & District could go Liberal Democrat on transfers.

    NTY UK: Are you by any chance as good at eating hats as you are at predicting election results?

  12. “NTY UK: Are you by any chance as good at eating hats as you are at predicting election results?”

    I never said I’d eat my hat this time!

    Also I did at one point mention (I believe on the vote uk site) that Conservative gains were extremely remote but possible in both cases. The result was unexpected as it represents huge gains for the Conservatives in both areas from the results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election (at least on a local level – something in the region of 7% up in Banff and WELL OVER 10% in Inverurie).

  13. And equally importantly of course the SNP were down in both areas by a substantial amount.

  14. With these results in mind I would consider looking at the Conservatives polling ahead in the following council areas:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus (?)
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh
    Moray
    Perth and Kinross
    Scottish Borders
    South Ayrshire

  15. I could now see the Conservatives winning up to half a dozen seats in Glasgow. The will win seats in Pollokshields and Kelvindale/ Partick East for sure and have a chance in Langside, Newlands, Linn and Victoria Park.

    This would be the largest Conservative Group in Glasgow since 1995.

    1980 to 1984. 11
    1984 to 1988. 5
    1988 to 1992. 4
    1992 to 1995. 5
    1995 to 1999. 3
    1999 onwards. 1

  16. Too bad you didn’t predict gains here then.

  17. That’s a lie: Ayr 2000 is a notable one in the Scottish Parliament!

  18. They’ll definitely win Annandale North at this rate, it’s not really a question.

  19. According to David Clegg (Daily Record Journalist) the Conservatives are confident that in a snap election they would win at least five MP’s in Scotland.

    That would most likely represent winning the following constituencies:
    – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    – East Renfrewshire (or possibly Aberdeen South)
    – West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    Under the initial proposed constituency changes this would most likely imply 7 out of 53 seats in Scotland, being:
    – Ayr and Carrick
    – Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    – Clydesdale and Eskdale
    – Cunninghame East
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – Edinburgh South West and Central
    – Gordon and Deeside

    So perhaps the Conservatives are optimistic of gaining those proposed seats moving into 2020? That would mark the first time since 1929 where Loudoun (in East Ayrshire) has been represented by a Conservative/Unionist MP and the first time since 1935 in Carrick (in South Ayrshire).

  20. That kind of result would roughly translate to the following MP composition in Scotland:

    – SNP: 44 (-12)
    – Con: 7 (+6)
    – Lib: 2 (+1)
    – Lab: 0 (-1)

    And that’s without considering the caveat of it being “AT LEAST” five constituencies.

  21. Merry Christmas everybody :)!

    As I’ve said repeatedly on this site I believe that the Conservatives fortunes at the next general election will largely depend on the election campaign.

    At the minimum I expect that they will carry two constituencies in Scotland at the next UK general election (namely Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Clydesdale & Eskdale).

    If they can repeat the results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election then they would also have a good chance of gaining a third seat in Dumfries and Galloway.

    After that, the Conservatives will need to move up a couple of percentage points nationally from 2016 to gain more constituencies: if they do I believe that they can manage gains in up to four seats (Ayr & Carrick, Cunninghame East, Edinburgh South West & Central and Gordon & Deeside), bringing them to a total of 7 seats in Scotland.

    If the Conservatives can pull their vote up towards the 30% mark they would be looking at gains in a further 4 constituencies (Aberdeen South, Kincardine & Angus East, Moray & Nairn and Perthshire), which would bring them up to 11.

    I can’t really see them doing much better than that being honest: their next most viable target after the proposed north Perthshire seat would be Angus Glens & Dundee East, which would require the SNP to poll on/behind the 2014 referendum Yes vote of 45% (and even then it’s a bit of a stretch). If they do develop as the “party of the union” you’d expect them to have a reasonable shot at gaining seats like East Dunbartonshire, East Lothian and Dunfermline: at the moment I don’t think that is feasible.

    So I propose somewhere in the region of 2-11 constituencies in Scotland depending on the election campaign.

  22. Important point here: I’m using the proposed initial boundaries from the Boundary Commission. Chances are that the proposed split in Stirling won’t actually happen as part of the final bill, and that the rural south of Perth & Kinross will actually join up with north east Fife instead of Cowdenbeath and its surrounding areas (which would create a decent Tory seat), so that list will most likely be changing!

    Here are seats which I believe had a No vote in excess of 57.5% of the vote which I do not believe will be viable Tory targets in 2020 (I don’t have the exact figures so they are rather sketchy):
    – Midlothian and Peebles 58% No
    – Edinburgh North and Leith 58% No
    – Dunfermline 59% No
    – Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath 59% No
    – Milngavie and Kirkintilloch 59% No [Possible Lib Dem target]
    – North East Fife 60% No [Possible Lib Dem target]
    – East Lothian 62% No [Possible Labour target]
    – Orkney and Shetland 65% No [Held by Lib Dems]
    – Edinburgh West 67% No [Lib Dem target]

    If your “theory” is correct and the Conservatives really do end up becoming the “party of the union” you would expect them to do well in some of these seats.

  23. “So perhaps the Conservatives are optimistic of gaining those proposed seats moving into 2020? That would mark the first time since 1929 where Loudoun (in East Ayrshire) has been represented by a Conservative/Unionist MP and the first time since 1935 in Carrick (in South Ayrshire).”

    When the Conservatives notionally gained DCT in 2005 it was the first time a Conservative had been elected in Lanarkshire since 1959 (Rutherglen) and the first time the DCT part of Lanarkshire had elected a Conservative MP since 1955 (Lanark).

  24. That’s like saying that if Surrey stockbroker belt seats were full of Che Guevara-worshipping hipsters they’d be rock solid Labour bastions.

  25. “If Gordon and WA&K were in Oxfordshire they’d be fortresses for the blues.”

    You’ve said this repeated: I don’t think many people care.

  26. Alex Salmond wrongly stated:

    “Far more people in Scotland wanted to stay within the EU than remain in the UK.”

    Labour’s Lewis Macdonald pointed out that 1.66m voted Remain in Scotland but over 2m voted No in the Referendum and Salmond’s claim was merely, “an alternative fact, which his friend Donald Trump is fond of”.

  27. Assuming that boundary changes go through and Alex Salmond stands in the redrawn Gordon and Deeside constituency there is a big risk that he will lose his seat to a Conservative.

  28. Based on current polling I believe that the Conservatives are on track to gain the following seats:
    1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    2. Dumfries and Galloway
    3. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    4. East Renfrewshire
    5. Aberdeen South
    6. Edinburgh South West

    I also think that there’s a decent possibility of gains in Gordon and Moray. I suppose that Stirling, Perth & North Perthshire and Ochil & South Perthshire could also be classed as long-shots.

  29. I don’t know where this idea that Gordon is in any way a target seat for the Conservatives is coming from. They are on 12%, and Alex Salmond has never lost an election.

  30. @ Polltroll- this constituency had a strong No vote in 2014 (around 63% No), a good Leave vote in 2016 (around 44.5% Leave) and what appears to be the biggest swing over to the Conservatives in the whole of Scotland at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

    I believe that there is a window for the the Conservatives to gain this constituency, looking something like (excluding other parties);
    42% Con
    42% SNP
    16% LD
    4% Lab

    Certainly Alex Salmond is the clear favourite here but on the basis of current opinion polling Conservative gains here and in Moray should not be ruled out. It’s difficult to see the party winning any more seats like Perth & North Perthshire, where the SNP took roughly 49% of the vote in 2016!

  31. I don’t think Salmond is entirely safe, and don’t see how his past record of winning elections – mostly for a different seat and under different circumstances – is very relevant. But it will be hard for the Cons because they aren’t clearly the challenger. An LD challenge may be more realistic but they will presumably be focusing their efforts on the NE Fife, Edinburgh W and East Dumbartonshire.

  32. Salmond and Robertson are the highest profile figures representing semi marginal seats. I think their majorities will be well down but they won’t lose. I think the Conservatives could also come close in North Perthshire, East Renfrewshire, Stirling and Angus.

    The Lib Dems could win the three seats mentioned above due to the more pro-European stance being adopted by them than the SNP in these ultra Remain constituencies plus tactical voting which should also enable Labour to hold Edinburgh South.

    I think the Conservatives will gain Aberdeenshire West and Berwickshire but just miss out in Dumfries & Galloway.

    The SNP will regain Glasgow East.

    Overall that would be SNP 51 LD 4 Con 3 Lab 1

  33. Why would the Conservatives miss out in Dumfries and Galloway when they polled first in that constituency in 2016, and are well up in the polls from then?

  34. Because the SNP majority is over 6000 and Dumfries & Galloway are not as good boundaries for the Conservatives as Galloway & West Dumfries.

  35. I know but my notionals indicate that the Conservatives clearly polled ahead of the SNP in the Dumfries and Galloway Westminster constituency in 2016 with a 2% majority!

  36. The Scottish Conservatives are much more popular at Holyrood Elections than Westminster, returning 3 to 7 constituency MSPs when 1 Conservative MP is elected.

  37. The boundaries are quite a bit different in Holyrood Dalek. They did better in the 2010 UK general election in comparison to the 2007 and 2011 Scottish Parliament elections in vote share terms.

  38. But the Conservatives won four seats in 2007 (Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale and Roxburgh & Berwickshire) and retained three of them in 2011 when they only won a single seat at Westminster.

    In 2005 and 2010 there was still a great deal of anti-Tory tactical voting. In East Renfrewshire the Conservatives got over 30% in 2010 (the equivalent of 40% on the Eastwood boundaries) and were buried under Murphy’s majority of nearly 10000.

  39. Nearly 11000…sorry

  40. Again the boundaries are different boundaries Dalek.

    Ayr is divided between two constituencies in the British Parliament, and both of those constituencies are joined up to former Labour heartlands which are now good areas for the SNP, so there is no areas of comparison there.

    The 2007 Edinburgh Pentlands constituency is not comparable to the 2005 Edinburgh South West constituency, which covers a bunch of council estates to the north and excludes Morningside.

    Dumfries and Galloway covers more of the town of Dumfries than the existing Galloway and West Dumfries constituency in the Scottish Parliament, areas which were traditionally better for Labour and now better for the SNP.

  41. I’ve decided to be a little bold and make an early prediction of sorts purely based on current opinion polling.

    I think if there’s going to be a big surprise from Scotland it’s going to come from Gordon: I think there is a very good chance that the Conservatives will gain this constituency based on a strong No vote in 2014, a good Leave vote in 2016 and a collapsing Liberal Democrat vote over to the Conservatives. It will all depend on how much of the Lib Dem vote breaks over to the Conservatives and whether the polls remain as they are just now, but I am prepared to make a bet on this given the odds.

    Remember this area had a massive swing over to the Conservatives in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, and they are the main unionist party in all three Scottish Parliamentary constituencies overlapping Gordon.

    Even if the Lib Dems manage to cling to a good share of their vote and only experience and average vote decrease here relative to the rest of Scotland I can still see the Conservatives gaining this constituency.

    CON 38
    SNP 38
    LD 20
    LAB 4

    So that’s where my money is going. Another potential shocker would be a Conservative gain in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.

  42. …But the odds here are much better at 12/1 for the Conservatives.

  43. Oh good lord. That’s an absurd prediction.

    SNP hold against split LD/Con opposition with LDs coming second.

  44. NTY,

    I wish I was your bookie, you could have phoned me in my Bahamas villa and had any amount you wished on that one.

  45. It’s obviously a difficult one, especially given how far away the election actually is, but there’s my outrageous gamble. Just remember you probably heard it here first 😛

  46. If we don’t see any posts from NTY for the next 6 weeks, it’s because he’s campaigning in Gordon!

    Jokes apart, as always NTY bases his predictions on evidence. This looks a long shot on paper, but we are in new territory, politically speaking – and to some extent doubly so in Scotland.

    Besides, some posters on here seem to be in denial regarding Tory chances of actually winning seats in Scotland, kind of stuck in pre-2014/15 mode.

  47. Long shot is an understatement. Alex Salmond is priced by the bookies to retain his seat here at 1/25. Personally I think 1/100 is a more accurate price.

  48. I’m sure I’ve mentioned it on this thread before but for reference Gordon had a 62% No vote in 2014 and a 44% Leave vote in 2016.

    Given that the last two opinion polls have the SNP on 43-44% of the vote nationally (which is down 1-2% on the 2014 Yes vote) I would put them on around 38% of the vote here, taking in to account an inflated SNP vote in the North East of Scotland in comparison to the 2014 referendum results, Alex Salmond’s personal vote here and the quite strong Leave vote here relative to the rest of Scotland.

    As I’ve said the constituencies which overlap Gordon in the Scottish Parliament had one of, if not the, strongest SNP to Conservative swings in Scotland in 2016. The Liberal Democrats only managed 19% of the vote on the constituency vote in Aberdeenshire East polling on 8% of the vote nationally, in a constituency where they were seen as the tactical favourites (similar to Gordon). Given their general decline in the opinion polls they should be DOWN in Gordon relative to 2016.

    So that brings me to the Conservatives gaining this constituency based on current opinion polling. Obviously it’s an outside bet, but I believe based on current polling it is very much a possibility, and I do believe that they can win it fairly comfortably:
    CON 42
    SNP 38
    LD 16
    LAB 4

  49. And no I will not be campaigning in this election BT Says!

  50. Lib Dem or Con should decide who stands aside. I think only then would we see the smug grin wiped off Salmond’s face.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)