Gordon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6807 (11.7%)
Labour: 3441 (5.9%)
Lib Dem: 19030 (32.7%)
SNP: 27717 (47.7%)
UKIP: 1166 (2%)
MAJORITY: 8687 (14.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. First elected as MP for Gordon in 2015. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9111 (19%)
Lab: 9811 (20%)
LDem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22%)
Oth: 1451 (3%)
MAJ: 6748 (14%)
2005
Con: 7842 (18%)
Lab: 8982 (20%)
LDem: 20008 (45%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Oth: 508 (1%)
MAJ: 11026 (25%)
2001*
Con: 8049 (23%)
Lab: 4730 (14%)
LDem: 15928 (46%)
SNP: 5760 (16%)
Oth: 534 (2%)
MAJ: 7879 (23%)
1997
Con: 11002 (26%)
Lab: 4350 (10%)
LDem: 17999 (43%)
SNP: 8435 (20%)
Oth: 459 (1%)
MAJ: 6997 (17%)

2015 Candidates
COLIN CLARK (Conservative) Educated at Turriff Academy and Heriot-Watt University. Farmer.
BRADEN DAVY (Labour) Born Bishop Auckland. Educated at Hirst High School and Durham University. Parliamentary assistant and former McDonalds manager.
CHRISTINE JARDINE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Braidfield High School and Glasgow university. Journalist. Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 by-election and Scotland region 2014 European election.
EMILY SANTOS (UKIP) Nurse.
ALEX SALMOND (SNP) Born 1954, Linlithgow. Educated at Linlithgow Academy and St Andrews University. Former Economist. MP for Banff and Buchan 1987-2010. MSP for Banff and Buchan 1999-2001. MSP for Gordon 2007-2010. MSP for Aberdeenshire East since 2011.. Twice leader of the SNP, from 1990 to 2000 and 2004 to 2014. Scottish First Minister from 2007 to 2014, stepping down after losing the Independence Referendum.
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Comments - 726 Responses on “Gordon”
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  1. With the SNP now in second place, the LibDems must be very vulnerable, particularly if Malcolm Bruce decides to retire

  2. This constituency looks very deceptive on the map. About a third of the electorate is made up from Northern ward of the Aberdeen City Council area, so isn’t as rural as it looks.

    I think this seat will remain Lib Dem as long as Malcolm Bruce remains their candidate.

  3. That can’t be indefinite though seeing that he will already be over 70 by the time of the next election. It could well be interesting even if he does stand & though on balance I’d expect him to survive, it’s not impossible that he could lose. He could survive in particular if the anti-coalition vote is split between Lab & SNP, which is more than possible.

  4. “He could survive in particular if the anti-coalition vote is split between Lab & SNP, which is more than possible.”

    I don’t think that that’s especially likely. He only has to lose 10% split equally between SNP and Labour to lose the seat. The most recent Ashcroft marginal poll of Lib Dem held Scottish seats suggests that they’re on track to lose around half of their current vote:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/marginal-territory-the-seats-that-will-decide-the-next-election/

  5. His majority of over 9000 was cut to 200 in 1992, so he has been in trouble before.

    Just because someone has been an MP for some time does not mean that their popularity can’t decline.

    A classic example was Russell Johnston who’s vote fell to 26% in 1992, and had the non-Liberal vote not been so equally divided would have lost.

    I see this seat falling to the SNP with Labour coming a close second. Much of Aberdeen Donside is within this constituency, and the by election will indicate whether the SNP will remain the favourites here.

  6. I couldn’t say in detail, but it could just go SNP – but for that matter Lab gain or even Con gain by default isn’t ridiculous.

    One does suspect he’ll hang on by about 1,000.

  7. When you look at how close the opposition is at the moment, it’s not inconceivable that this could be another Inverness ’92.

  8. May Con gain was a bit Gloy Plopwellesque as it would require them to move to about 25%.

  9. Yeah, absolutely no hope for the Conservatives here I’m afraid. Could be a fascinating 3 way marginal with the winner under 30%.

    Alternatively, could be a straight Lab-SNP fight with both around 30%, and Con-LD both around 20%.

  10. It would be funny if
    it was SNP v Labour
    with Con third by default
    and
    Bruce scrapping it out with UKIP for fourth.

  11. When I say Inverness-like I mean that I assume that the tories would have a respectable share of the vote which doesn’t seem too far off the victor, but are still fourth/

  12. Will waving the Saltire from the Royal Box at Wimbledon be beneficial or detrimental to the SNP?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/413158/Crass-Alex-Salmond-hits-back-after-photobombing-David-Cameron-with-Saltire-at-Wimbledon

  13. Here is the BBC coverage of the story –

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23225470

  14. Apparently Salmond broke the rules of Wimbledon because the flag was too large. Nothing happened to him of course, whereas if an ordinary member of the public had transgressed in the same way they probably would have been surrounded by thuggish-looking security guards within seconds.

  15. The 1992 notional result for the new 1997 Gordon constituency was as follows:

    Con: 19,596 (48.0%)
    LD: 11,110 (27.2%)
    SNP: 7,593 (18.6%)
    Lab: 2,561 (6.3%)

  16. I would be stunned if the LDs won here. This seat should fall easily into the hands of the SNP.

  17. Any chance of the LDs holding this?

  18. It doesn’t look good for them, Andy. This is really the SNP’s to lose now.

  19. A closer look at the result here in 1983-
    (I don’t have the notional changes)
    Bruce (Liberal)- 20, 134 (43.81%)
    Cran (Conservative)- 19, 284 (41.96%)
    Grant (Labour)- 3, 899 (8.48%)
    Guild (SNP)- 2, 636 (5.74%)

    Majority- 850 (1.85%)

  20. Is that James Cran later of Beverly?

  21. It is indeed James Cran.

    Incidentally, I looked at these figures next to the result for West Aberdeenshire in 1979 even though they are not really comparable. I’d be grateful if anyone knows what the notional result was for Gordon in 1979?

  22. The notional result for this seat in 1979 was-
    Conservative- 17, 766 (41.8%)
    Liberal- 13, 035 (30.6%)
    Labour- 6, 036 (14.2%)
    SNP- 5, 656 (13.3%)

    So the ‘changes’ in 1983 had the seat existed before were-
    Liberal- +13.21%
    Conservative- +0.16%
    Labour- -5.72%
    SNP- -7.56%

  23. I remember James Cran standing & thinking he must have been rather upset not to win. He is Scottish, a sort of flinty Scotsman rather cut from the same cloth as David McLean, former MP for Penrith & the Border. McLean’s predecessor Willie Whitelaw of course was Scottish too, and a great lover of Scotch whisky to boot.

  24. Bruce’s first two results here in 1983 and 1987 suggest that he built up a considerable personal vote- First a notional increase of 13.21%, then another increase of 5.6% in 1987, a total increase of 18.81%. So even when his vote collapsed in 1992, he was able to hold Gordon because of the personal vote he had clearly built up here.

  25. My 2015 forecast for Gordon

    SNP 35
    Lab 21
    LD 20
    Con 17
    Others 7

    It is a bolted down certainty that the Lib Dems will lose here.

  26. I think Bruce would have narrowly held this seat in 2015.

    However he has decided to retire and as non-incumbency makes a difference especially in LD seats, I expect an SNP win here.

  27. SNP: 34%
    LAB: 23%
    LD: 21%
    CON: 16%
    UKIP: 4%
    GRN: 3%

  28. Independence will be defeated by at least 15-20% next year.

    The only council areas where independence will win be the Western Isles, Angus, Orkney and possibly Dundee.

  29. @A Brown

    Why Orkney? Surely they would see themselves as neither Scottish or British, though not to as great an extent as Shetland perhaps…

  30. Without Bruce, this seat looks highly vulnerable to the SNP. I think the Lib Dems will still manage second, but who knows given what the size of Bruce’s personal vote may have been.

  31. Help me with the logic here, 111…

    so the referendum gets defeated.. and then the voters who formerly voted for the anti-independence MP and his likewise party will now shift over to the party that proposed independence and failed to get it…

    what am I missing? or is it that the SNP will get “F” for independence but “A” for effort?

  32. Just purely out of interest, and in the absence of a constituency profile, what is this constituency like?

    It’s probably complete ignorance on my part but I thought North-west Scotland was a moderately better area for the Tories so was slightly surprised to see them down on 19%.

  33. This is north east Scotland not north west.

    I’m guessing this seat is a mix of Aberdeen suburbia and Banffshire countryside. The naturally Tory vote has most likely been heavily squeezed by the Lib Dems and the SNP in those respective areas. I believe there was a big notional Tory majority here in 1992, though there have been boundary changes since.

  34. Thanks, that’s useful to know.

  35. Banffshire is as far as I know all in Banff & Buchan. The best town the Tories had used to be Turriff, but this I believe was also moved from here to Banff & Buchan in the last boundary changes. In its place came a bit of outer Aberdeen suburbia, which is almost certainly Labour’s best area. Huntly & Keith are the main towns outside of Aberdeen & its environs.

  36. @Barnaby

    ‘Banffshire is as far as I know all in Banff & Buchan.’

    Strictly speaking, Keith and Buckie are in Banffshire but are in the Moray constituency so not quite I’m afraid!

  37. so Keith isn’t in this constituency any more? It does get confusing. So many incarnations of the Gordon constituency.

  38. Looking at election maps, the seat almost reaches Keith but not quite. It appears more like an Aberdeen suburban seat than I had thought, stretching all the way into the city proper as I think someone said upthread.

  39. It’s essentially Aberdeen north of the Don, plus a swathe of countryside to the north-west, ranging from semi-suburban to properly rural. The other major town in the seat is Inverurie.

  40. This seat is very much a Scottish take on somewhere like Central Suffolk and North Ipswich. If this was in the South East it would lean Tory, but this is Scotland we’re talking about.

    I stand by my prediction. LD voters will migrate to the SNP in large numbers as they did in the last Holyrood election, while the Tories will dip slightly with Labour gaining slightly. UKIP will lose their deposit but they will do better here than they will average across Scotland.

    Antiochian: The SNP vote isn’t really based on a desire for independence, it exists due to the popularity of Salmond and his perceived effectiveness. Consequently LD voters in the Highlands will naturally turn to the SNP as all they really want is strong representation at Westminster by a party they feel they can trust to address their concerns.

  41. Incidentally, Calum : I don’t think A Brown is a million miles off the mark when he suggests that the Orkney Islands may vote for independence. It is quite well known that Shetlanders are very unlikely to think of themselves as Scottish, preferring to consider themselves Shetlanders or British; but Orcadians are a rather different matter & have been for many years. They generally do regard themselves as Scots; but whether they vote yes in a referendum is possibly another matter.

  42. I would have thought if Orkney votes yes it would be a landslide win elsewhere.

  43. Not necessarily. Orcadians & Shetlanders have usually tended to plough a rather lonely furrow in politics, although not always the same furrow (though they both vote mainly LD).

  44. and 111 how exactly do SNP MPs do a great job of representing voters at Westminster? and why didn’t they like them before to do this job they are so good at?

  45. Antiochian: SNP MPs do not necessarily do a great job in regard to their representation of the concerns of voters in their constituency at Westminster. However at present the SNP as a party is widely seen across Scotland as being much more in tune with public concerns than the Liberal Democrats due to their actions in government in Edinburgh in contrast to the antics of the Liberal Democrats while in government in Westminster.

  46. Alex Salmond will narrowly retain power at Holyrood in 2016.

    Johann Lamont will come relatively close but she sadly won’t manage it.

  47. Malcolm Bruce has announced he is stepping down. With the SNP really strong in Gordon now, the seat must be there for the taking.

  48. With Malcolm Bruce stepping down are there any obvious frontrunners to replace him?

    I really can’t work out which way this will go if there is a ‘No’ vote, could the Lib Dem vote hold up here? Could the Malcolm Bruce vote be holding the Tories back?

    I certainly think Labour have peaked here and would be doing well to stayat their current level.

  49. A “no” vote won’t cause the SNP vote to collapse. They will campaign on the platform of getting a good showing to push for a devo max settlement at Westminster.

    I can’t see anything other than an SNP gain here, regardless of the referendum result. A LD hold is pretty much impossible IMO.

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