Glasgow South West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2036 (5%)
Labour: 13438 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 406 (1%)
SNP: 23388 (57.2%)
Green: 507 (1.2%)
UKIP: 970 (2.4%)
Others: 176 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (24.3%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CHRIS STEPHENS (SNP) Former local government officer. Contested Glasgow South West 2010. First elected as MP for Glasgow South West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 2084 (7%)
Lab: 19863 (62%)
LDem: 2870 (9%)
SNP: 5192 (16%)
Oth: 1772 (6%)
MAJ: 14671 (46%)
2005
Con: 1786 (6%)
Lab: 18653 (60%)
LDem: 3593 (12%)
SNP: 4757 (15%)
Oth: 2188 (7%)
MAJ: 13896 (45%)
2001*
Con: 1417 (6%)
Lab: 15497 (61%)
LDem: 1612 (6%)
SNP: 4229 (17%)
Oth: 2522 (10%)
MAJ: 11268 (45%)
1997
Con: 1979 (6%)
Lab: 19653 (60%)
LDem: 1137 (3%)
SNP: 5862 (18%)
Oth: 4171 (13%)
MAJ: 13791 (42%)

2015 Candidates
GORDON MCCASKILL (Conservative) Former taxi driver. East Renfrewshire councillor. Contested Paisley and Renfrewshire South 2010.
IAN DAVIDSON (Labour) Born 1950, Jedburgh. Community services manager. MP for Glasgow Govan 1992 to 2015. Was the chair of the Labour campaign against entering the Euro before it was ruled out in 2003.
ISABEL NELSON (Liberal Democrat) Contested Glasgow South West 2010.
SARAH HEMY (UKIP) Retail manager.
SEAN TEMPLETON (Green) Educated at Strathclyde University. Advocate.
CHRIS STEPHENS (SNP) Local government officer. Contested Glasgow South West 2010.
BILL BONNAR (Scottish Socialist Party) Educated at Stirling University. Contested Glasgow Anniesland 1997, Rutherglen and Hamilton West 2001, 2005.
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Comments - 93 Responses on “Glasgow South West”
  1. What would happen if the Northern Ireland Parties started fighting seats in Scotland?

    Glasgow South East – 2015

    DUP: 8300
    Labour: 7700
    SNP: 4600
    Sinn Fein: 4100
    Conservative: 1700
    SDLP: 1600
    Lib Dem: 1300

    MAJORITY: 600

  2. Dalek’s gone off on one again. H. Hemellig will be pleased.
    Much more fun than Windsofchange’s rubbish though

  3. I’m not 100% sure which Westminster constituency Govan is in, but here is the result for the Govan by-election on Thursday :
    Labour 2055
    SNP 1424
    No bedroom Tax – No Welfare Cuts 446
    Lab Gain from SNP
    There was of course no need for a second ballot since Labour achieved over half the votes on the first ballot.

  4. Apologies, apparently that was the final count. Labour didn’t win on the 1st ballot but were around 300 ahead of the SNP.

  5. That was the first preference vote Barnaby, it was around 43% for Labour.

  6. Margo McDonald the victor of the famous 1973 Glaagow Govan by-election for the SNP has died age 70.

  7. Very sad to hear about the death of Margo McDonald, one of the great figures of modern Scottish politics. And also very sad that she didn’t live to see the independence referendum she’d long campaigned for.

  8. Yes it’s a sad moment, though it isn’t unexpected I’m afraid.

  9. Sorry to hear that. I remember Margo Macdonald hosted some prominent TV programmes in the late 80s/early 90s, to those non-Scots of my age that is probably more memorable than her political career.

  10. Sad news. Why did she leave the SNP?

  11. For the 2003 Scottish election she was moved down the list to a place where it would have been impossible to be elected so she quit and stood as an independent.

  12. That was the second time she left the SNP.

  13. Like her husband (or was he an ex-husband), she was on the left-wing fundamentalist wing of the SNP. Since the 1990s the party has become a lot more pragmatic and gradualist, soaking up a lot of former Tory votes in the north-east, and embracing devolution as a stepping stone to independence.

  14. I was watching the 1964 BBC general election coverage on YouTube and was amazed to see David Butlers complete shock at the news of a Labour gain in Glasgow Pollok.

  15. A journalist at the count has posted these Glasgow indy ref results

    Glasgow Pollok Yes 26807 (53.9%) No 22956 (46.1%)

    YES NO
    Anniesland 51% 49%
    Cathcart 53% 47%
    Kelvin 52% 48%
    Maryhill 57% 43%
    Provan 57% 43%
    Shettleston 51% 49%
    Southside 53% 47%

  16. Yes won Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire, Dundee and North Lanarkshire.

    Ironic because with the exception of Dundee these were the safest Labour councils in 2012 yet Yes failed to win The Western Isles, Perth & Kinross, Angus, Aberdeenshire and Moray where the SNP do not only have Holyrood seats but also Westminster seats.

    The results could suggest that the SNP could be challenged in seats that they took from the Tories in the 1987 and 1997. Although they could make progress in the Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire constituencies next May in gaining votes the Labour majorities at Westminster are huge.

    At the next Holyrood elections I could see the SNP losing longer held constituency seats in Perthshire and Aberdeenshire and Moray in the North East but holding some of the previously safe Labour seats they gained in Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire.

    The replacement of Alex Salmond with Nicola Surgeon could see the SNP moving from being primarily a party strongest in NE Scotland to be one that is stronger in the Central Belt.

  17. prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 59%
    SNP- 24%
    con- 5%
    UKIP- 4%
    Lib- 4%
    Solidarity- 4%

  18. Heard on radio 4 today that there is a new Yes Alliance which is holding a sold out conference and is planning on standing all over Scotland. This seat would therefore turn winnable.

  19. Really. Who would this consist of? Would they stand against the SNP? Or is it just the Greens not opposing the SNP? That wouldn’t make much difference? I have noticed in your posts so far that you attempt to contort the facts to create a scenario whereby Labour lose all sorts of seats which everyone else knows will not be lost.

  20. This would have been one of TUSC’s best results in 2010. I wonder if they might do a little better this time, as they’re somewhat surprisingly still around.

  21. I don’t usually have much time for D.Alex’s posts, but he does raise a good point, namely what is going to happen to the enormous number of enthusiastic young Yes activists in the general election. If (and it is a very big if) they swing enthusiastically behind the SNP, Labour could be facing defeat in some very surprising safe seats. Similarly, what are the 30-40% of Labour voters who voted Yes last week going to do in 2015?

  22. I just doubt we’ll see very much change.
    Labour will probably move up 1-2%.
    The LDs will collapse everywhere except in their seats providing the SNP with about 4-5% more.
    I think the Tories can move up a bit particularly in LD areas or where the SNP voting areas voted No.

    I very much doubt whether the SNP leaning Labour voters will come to anything much in a General Election.

  23. The SNP are also blaming older voters for voting No. I haven’t looked at the age breakdown in detail but I suspect No is something people may switch to with age anyway.

  24. But don’t you think that the massive turnout of non-voters in the referendum might not increase the GE turnout quite considerably, especially in and around Glasgow? And many of these were Yes voters and may be more inclined to the SNP than Labour.

    We can’t discount a substantial churn, with the SNP making big advances in & around Glasgow, yet (as you say) stalling a bit in their heartland areas which voted No.

    Largely agree with your comments about LDs and Tories, though a few % increase for the Tories is unlikely to net any more seats.

  25. Yes all that is possible/credible.
    I suspect the arguments will be very similar Lab v SNP as they were in 2010 but the unknown is the extra turnout.

    For the Tories (I think detailed on Argyll & Bute) they have to decide on some limited targets and focus.
    We really do need to pick up a couple more seats.

  26. I agree with H. Hemmelig. It won’t be many seats which the SNP gain but they might well see a large swing pretty much everywhere. Which is no bad thing for democracy I suppose although I obviously have my own preferences as to who they’d vote for and my own reasons why I think they’re disinclined to.

  27. The turnout spike is still likely to be greater in the Holyrood than the Westminster elections I reckon. It will probably go up in the latter but not hugely for the most part.

  28. For how long the enthusiasm of the yes voters lasts is an interesting question – I’m reminded a bit of the naive gushing about Obama a few years ago, now truly turned to dust.

    Clearly the SNP are aiming to keep the enthusiasm up with an eye on the GE and the Holyrood vote beyond that, though, Hence the over-the-top comments of recent days talking about the Scots being ‘tricked’, ‘cheated’ etc and blaming the elderly – all designed to nurse a sense of grievance. This may backfire in some parts of the country – we will see.

  29. Blaming the elderly is not very clever is it. Are people seriously suggesting that the elderly should be deprived of the franchise? If, as I hope, not, then it’s a pretty pointless attitude.

  30. I think Barnaby it’s a calculated attempt to keep up the ‘spirits’ (ire?) of the younger Yes supporters that the SNP got fired up.

    And of course I neglected to mention the most ridiculous element of all this which is the absurd ‘re-run the referendum’ petition.

  31. The Guardian has taken leave of its senses by giving this airtime.

    There is human error and relatively minor irregularities in even the most honest of elections. It is not nearly enough to threaten the victory of No, which was ahead by about 11% IIRC. This is one reason I’m glad the margin was not very close.

  32. Inconceivable that there wasn’t some ballot stuffing. No were probably better at it.

  33. I’d like to think the Guardian was just having a laugh, but I’m afraid the rapid growth of the alternative media – where conspiracy and hysteria are rampant – probably means this is more a case of them trimming with the wind by giving space to this.

  34. Because of the use of FPTP in the Westminster elections it seems unlikely that the probable substantial increase in SNP votes will gain them many seats.

    However, it would be foolish to ignore the implications of the SNP membership increasing from 26,000 before the referendum to 57,000 (and still rising) today.

    Assumptions that the SNP will lose seats in areas in their heartlands where No won ignores that the 2015 GE will not be about imminent independence so those SNP voters who voted No will not see a reason to abandon the SNP on those grounds.

    Also, GEs are multi party events. If we take Moray as an example, 42.4 % voted Yes but the SNP polled only 39.7% in 2010. That is not a recipe for the SNP to lose Moray is it?

  35. Some of the Yes camp just can’t comprehend that more people in Scotland simply voted not to turn their country into Western Europe’s answer to Malawi.

    Salmond himself said that they should accept the result.

  36. “Inconceivable that there wasn’t some ballot stuffing. No were probably better at it.”

    And I seem to remember one of your previous contributions here was that Labour Party folks, like myself, think our membership gives us immunity to commit criminal acts.

    I’m really not sure this is the right site for you. infowars.com, maybe?

  37. He rarely makes a contribution without making a snide or unpleasant comment. I wouldn’t miss him if he stopped doing so.

  38. I can see the SNP making huge gains in this constituency considering the recent referendum vote and how they inspired the working class, while many traditional labour voters are disenfranchised with them, obviously this will still be safe labour not just for the next election but for a generation

  39. I’ve got the SNP down to hold their 6 seats in the next election, as well as gaining 5, 4 of which Labour seats and 1 liberal democrat seat.

    It’s really hard to tell this far out.

    Or at least I find it, perhaps not the political genisueusus on this site.

    Which brings me to a totally random , off topic question because I cba to read all the politics stuff above.

    Does this forum have any-

    1) former/current frontbenchers?

    2) former/current MPs?

    3) former Councillors?

  40. 1) no. 2) yes, but not often.Toby Perkins (Chesterfield, Lab) was a regular contributor before he was elected in 2010, & still occasionally visits. Stewart Jackson (Peterborough, C), not a universally popular figure amongst all contributors, has also contributed as have one or 2 others. 3 ) yes, loads of them, both current & former.

  41. Are we actually positive that was Jackson though? Could have just been someone using his name.

    From what I remember of that user’s contributions, I’ be concerned if that actually was him.

  42. How sad would it be to pretend to be an MP on a politics forum haha

  43. I know a personal acquaintance of Stewart Jackson and shall make some inquiries.

  44. “How sad would it be to pretend to be an MP on a politics forum haha”

    Considering some of the strange characters we’ve had on this site, that would be one of the less weird things.

  45. Are the SNP still leading in the Scottish polls for Westminster?

    The were some months ago but have not seen any more recent ones since.

  46. I confess I hadn’t seen any Scottish polls at all showing them in the lead for Westminster. Are you sure you’re not thinking about polls for Holyrood or the Euros, as they were certainly leading in those.

  47. The last Westminster Scottish poll was Lab 42 SNP 25 – can’t remember the other party figures

  48. Terrible bunch of bad losers the SNP – worse than Lib Dems if you have ever seen them run away from a count.

    But deep down, we all knew it would be like this.

  49. “Are we actually positive that was Jackson though? Could have just been someone using his name.”

    Surprised at you asking such a silly question, Van Fleet.

    Of course it was him. Anyone posting as an MP is verified by Anthony using their email address, and if found not to be an MP their posts are deleted.

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