Glasgow North West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3692 (8.4%)
Labour: 13544 (30.9%)
Lib Dem: 1194 (2.7%)
SNP: 23908 (54.5%)
Green: 1167 (2.7%)
Others: 349 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10364 (23.6%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CAROL MONAGHAN (SNP) Born Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Former teacher. First elected as MP for Glasgow North West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3537 (10%)
Lab: 19233 (54%)
LDem: 5622 (16%)
SNP: 5430 (15%)
Oth: 1760 (5%)
MAJ: 13611 (38%)
2005
Con: 3262 (10%)
Lab: 16748 (49%)
LDem: 6655 (20%)
SNP: 4676 (14%)
Oth: 2720 (8%)
MAJ: 10093 (30%)
2001*
Con: 2651 (10%)
Lab: 15102 (57%)
LDem: 3244 (12%)
SNP: 4048 (15%)
Oth: 1677 (6%)
MAJ: 11054 (41%)
1997
Con: 3881 (11%)
Lab: 20951 (62%)
LDem: 2453 (7%)
SNP: 5797 (17%)
Oth: 797 (2%)
MAJ: 15154 (45%)

2015 Candidates
ROGER LEWIS (Conservative)
JOHN ROBERTSON (Labour) Born 1952, Glasgow. Educated at Shawlands Academy Secondary School. British Telecom manager. MP for Glasgow Anniesland 2000 by-election to 2015.
JAMES HARRISON (Liberal Democrat)
MOIRA CRAWFORD (Green) Contested Glasgow North West 2010.
CAROL MONAGHAN (SNP) Born Glasgow. Educated at Strathclyde University. Teacher.
ZOE HENNESSY STREATFIELD (Scottish Communist Party)
CHRIS MACKENZIE (CISTA)
Links
Comments - 84 Responses on “Glasgow North West”
  1. did anyone feel a bit sorry for Jim Sillars when he lost in 1992?

    He looked very disappointed.

  2. no

  3. can’t find that footage 🙁

    prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 58%
    SNP- 20%
    con- 8%
    Lib- 7%
    Green- 6%

    and if UKIP stand?

    Lab- 56%
    SNP- 18%
    Lib- 7%
    Con- 6%
    UKIP- 6%
    Green- 5%

  4. I can’t imagine UKIP making any difference to the SNP’s % whether they stand or not, also think that both of your SNP figures are low. Would love to be wrong though.

  5. probably because I know not much about the SNP.

  6. Given that Glasgow as a whole voted Yes (one of only four council areas in Scotland to do so), how much of a swing from Labour to SNP could occur in the next general election?

  7. The best seat for the communist party in 2010, getting 0.5% of the votes.

  8. James Harrison has been selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/james_harrison

  9. Straw Poll carried out 15-April
    SNP GAIN

    SNP——–40%
    LAB——–37%
    CON——-11%
    LD———–6%
    GREEN—-5%
    OTHS——-1%

  10. Straw Poll?

    It would take a huge presence to shift that majority. Which there isn’t. And I live in the seat.

  11. Labour Hold

  12. Straw Poll?

    It would take a huge presence to shift that majority. Which there isn’t. And I live in the seat.

    ________________________________________________

    the 23% SNP majority, no?

    oops

  13. On paper the equivalent Glasgow Anniesland is the Labour’s top target seat in Scotland with an SNP majority of just 7.

    Bill Kidd made reference to ‘The Magnificent Seven’ in his 2011 acceptance speech.

    Until a year ago I felt that this was Labours most likely gain in Scotland until the SNP won by 10364 in very similar boundaries last May.

    I really could not see Labour coming any closer than 4000 in Glasgow Anniesland next May.

  14. “did anyone feel a bit sorry for Jim Sillars when he lost in 1992?

    He looked very disappointed.”

    Yes…throughout his campaign he had expected to not only win but some canvassing suggested that he could hold on by over 5000.

    What’s incredible is that the SNP have lost every Westminster by election that the won from Labour; Motherwell (1945), Hamilton (1967), Glasgow Govan (1973), Glasgow Govan (1988) and Glasgow East (2008).

    The SNP won Glasgow Govan at Holyrood in 2007 and then Hamilton South and Glasgow Shettleston (similar to East) in 2011. They only missed out in Motherwell & Wishaw. At the last general election they regain all their lost by election gains.

  15. I wonder if any of the defeated Scottish Labour MP’s will stand for re-election in the nearest successor to their old constituency in 2020.

    I would have thought that the most likely would be Jim Murphy but he seems to have vanished since resigning as Scottish Labour Leader.

  16. Given that Labour are likely to be in opposition from 2020 to 2025, I would have thought that an ex-cabinet minister like Jim Murphy would do better to further his career outside parliament. Not least, he has too much baggage from the defeated Government.

    To my mind a more immediate and interesting question is whether any of the defeated MPs, including notably younger ex-back benchers, will seek election next year to the Scottish Parliament.

  17. @Dalek

    In the current climate I doubt many would think it worth it. If there were some shift and LAB looked likely to gain a fair number of seats back, then maybe. But I doubt it will be the ex-cabinet ministers, who won’t be short of offers to do other things.

    So far I think Thomas Docherty is the only defeated MP to declare he wants to stand for Holyrood. Doubtless a couple more might follow, but would the constituency parties really want them? And if they are going to be relying mainly on list seats most will, I assume, go to incumbents.

  18. “So far I think Thomas Docherty is the only defeated MP to declare he wants to stand for Holyrood. Doubtless a couple more might follow,”

    Sarwar has confirmed today he’s also seeking selection for 2016 Labour Glasgow regional list.

  19. Can we revisit the question as to how many Labour ex-MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament, either for individual constituencies or for a List?

  20. Is this the constituency that covers the Govan shipyard?

    We ought to notice that the Type 45 destroyers which were bulit at Govan around 2010 at huge expense, about £6 billion a ship, have recently been reported as being effectively unuusable, so that for instace HMS Dauntless is in Portsmouth dockyard being used a a training ship.

    Because of the excessive cost of these ships, the numbers built were cut with the result that the Royal Navy cannot meet immediate and urgent requirements, e.g. to defend the Falkland Islands and to guard the English Channel gainst illegal immigration.

    It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the builders of these ships ripped off a British Government desperate to stave off Scottish independence.

    It is not worth £30 billion to save one parliamentary constituency and surely the recent incompetence of shipbuilding in Glasgow is that no more naval ships should be built here for very very many years. No more ships should be commissioned from the same manufacturers either.The Westminster budget for Scotland should also be adjusted to compensate the rest of the United Kingdom for the money Scotland has wasted. Why should Scottish politicians, of all parties, get away with things time and tme and time again?

  21. “Can we revisit the question as to how many Labour ex-MPs are seeking election to the Scottish Parliament, either for individual constituencies or for a List?”

    I think it’s 3:
    1 certain to be elected (Anas Sarwar on top of Glasgow list)
    1 with a chance to be elected (Thomas Docherty in third place on Mid Scotland & Fife list)
    1 in an unwinnable position (Fiona O’Donnell in 6th spot on South Scotland list)

  22. The only ex-Labour MPs in Scotland I’ve seen coverage of them campaigning are the Labour Leave lot. Nigel Griffiths, Ian Davidson et al.

  23. @Frederic So you are now saying that Scotland should get less Government funding because of the decisions that the British (not Scottish) Government made on naval procurement. Before that, it was that we should have to pay all the costs of RBS and HBOS, despite the fact that both are majority owned and operated outside Scotland, and the regulation of banks is a reserved matter. Then there was the time when you decided it would be outrageous if Scottish votes gave a UK-wide majority for Remain, which suggests that one person one vote is a problem for you. You’re starting to sound ever so slightly prejudiced here.

  24. I am saying that Scotland should get less funding because they are repeatedly wasteful and inefficient. Both over the banks and over naval expenidure they have been given extremely favourable funding and have basically thrown money that the rest of the United Kingdom could not afford down the drain. We could add waste on other issues (e.g. the Forth Road Bridge, Edinburgh schools) but the banks and defence expenditure were and are particularly serious examples.

    I lived in Scotland in the past admittedly many years ago now, and other things being equal would like to see Scotland do well. But they have got used to a “cargo cult” of getting money for whatever they want. The Labour Party have paid the price; but more generally it is time that Scotland lived in the real world and cut its cloth according to its means. Some us elsewhere in the United Kingdom are reaching the end of our tether.

    The first thing to do to address this fairly is for Westminster to change the Barnett formula so that Scotland does no better financially than other areas of the United Kingdom.

  25. @Frederic This isn’t hard. Both banking and defence expenditure are under the control of Westminster and the UK Government. Therefore their mistakes are paid for by the people of the UK collectively. The Forth Road Bridge work is the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament, and will come out of its budget. The Edinburgh schools issue seems to be the fault of the private contractors who built the schools, and they are very likely to be pursued for the costs of repairs. If that doesn’t work out, the City Council will have to foot the bill, as provision of schools is a local authority provision.

    But then, you are an intelligent adult, so you know all of that. You just seem to have this bizarre belief that if anything goes wrong, and it could possibly be a Scottish person’s fault in any way, then a bill should immediately be sent to the people of Scotland. At least with the present Government, we should be on a winner, as there are no Scottish Cabinet Ministers with any spending power at all, so the people of England should (by your principles, at least) pay for all errors and mistakes made by the Conservatives.

  26. On Barnett itself, changing it nowadays is a political non-starter. It could have been done either under the Thatcher/Major administrations or in the early years of Blair, but I don’t think there’s much of an appetite these days to put the Union at risk over Barnett.

  27. Barrett completely undermines unionism

  28. The Barnett formula is deeply ironic: it provides Scotland with more taxable income than it actually raises – infuriating voters south of the border – but is understood by the Scottish public to be an unfair system which subsidies for voters in the rest of the UK. Many in Scotland are also under the impression that the UK government, who determines departmental spending in Scotland, do not distribute resources in Scotland in an effective manner which is beneficial to the Scottish public.

    The solution is simple: we need federalism. This would make the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish government more accountable for its own actions, and would make passing the blame on to Westminster (a common practice) more difficult.

  29. Oh God, not the federalism thing again. The only people in the world who support federalism are thoughtful Scottish unionists and Lib Dems, which tells you immediately why it’s never going to happen.

    [Not to say it’s a bad idea in itself – just that it is exceptionally unlikely ever to happen]

  30. @ Simon – And the SNP in writing, although not in reality.

  31. I have a bizarre view that to waste £30 billion on ships that don’t work is very far from a minor matter and if, for instance, a large private company is responsible by reason of gross negligence its people should have to bear the consequences. On this scale matters go far beyond whether it happens to be a Scottish or a UK wide responsibility.

    Perhaps the company responsible for the destroyers that don’t work should be sued for the full £30 billion which they were paid for the ships, which would obviously bankrupt the company. An efficient start-up company should be formed to build future ships. It should be on a greenfield site, which means nowhere anywhere near Glasgow..

  32. I don’t think anyone disagrees that wasting lots of money would be bad. It’s your belief that Scottish taxpayers alone are somehow responsible for either the behaviour of the MOD or the actions of a private company that’s being challenged. Also, it would be deeply negligent of the MOD not to protect themselves from the possibility that a private company could not deliver what it said it could at the agreed price.

  33. UK Vote Forum has an interesting discussion about Glasgow Anniesland (the Holyrood equivalent of Glasgow North West).

    The SNP took it by 7 votes in 2011, hence the discussion about the prospect of a Labour Gain.

    Given the boundaries are so similar and Westminster seat is now categorised as a “Safe SNP seat”, I would imagine that this would be one of the most unlikely Labour Gains…or even go as far to say that it was extremely unlikely that Labour would gain any constituency seat.

  34. I think the only SNP held seats which may be at risk at all are Edinburgh Southern, Central and Western, simply because they are all heavily unionist, and, if enough people decide to vote tactically, then a surprise is possible. Also, the incumbent MSP in Western was deselected, and the MSP in Central is not standing again. Having a Green candidate in Central with a reasonably strong local profile won’t help either. All of that said, I still have the SNP as favourites in all three.

  35. Central is unlikely. My notional for here is –

    Scottish National – 39%
    Labour – 21%
    Conservative – 20%
    Liberal Democrat – 13%
    Other – 7%

    I would say there are plenty of constituencies in Scotland which could be classed as heavy unionist (Eastwood, North East Fife, Aberdeenshire West, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine, 5 seats in Lothian) however I see the vast majority going SNP.

  36. Central is hard to predict, because all the wards are split, and, in most cases, the nicer part of the ward is the bit in the Central seat, so, unless you’ve taken that into account, then your notionals may be too good for the SNP. It will also probably tell us a bit about whether the Greens mostly take from the SNP, or if they take a chunk of their support from Labour too.

    Also, given that the Lib Dems lost their deposit everywhere except Edinburgh West last year, I think it’s pretty clear that their core, non-tactical vote is very low. I’d anticipate them getting a lot less than 13%.

  37. It is partially based on 2011, but mostly based on horseshit indeed.

    The map would be representative of a landslide Tory victory for me. They can’t take Eastwood, I doubt they can take Ayr or Galloway.

  38. If you’re saying that they’re too optimistic for the Tories, the predictions must be pretty over the top.

    Then again, I think what these sorts of predictions do tell us is that if the Tories were to do as well as their best polls suggest – i.e around the 18-19% mark – then they will do unexpectedly well somewhere. Maybe they’ll just add a few per cent everywhere, but I’d guess that they’d probably add more in the parts of the world where people do vote Tory already. Personally, I don’t think the Tories will get 18-19%.

  39. Ditto. I’m thinking between 15-16% of the vote.

  40. Yep. Ruth Davidson’s campaign parallels Annabel Goldie’s campaign back in 2011. The polls at the time were quite close to the mark however.

  41. I don’t have any reason to think an average of all the polls is far off the mark. My understanding is that this gives something like SNP 53%, Labour 19%, Tories 16% for the constituency vote.

    I think the SNP will do better on the list than the polls suggest, because there is always this gap between their constituency and list scores in the polls, but they usually only actually poll 1-2% lower on the list in terms of real votes. Similarly, I suspect the Greens will not do quite as well as they hope.

    I do also wonder if alterations have been made to polling methodology as a result of the UK election fiasco. Given the Scottish polls were fine, it’s possible that this may lead to something of an over-estimation of the Tory vote. This may well turn out not to be the case, but it’s hard to say because the pollsters are pretty secretive about their methodology.

  42. If the Labour and Lib Dem vote both fall from 2011, and the SNP vote drops in rural areas such as Aberdeenshire and Perthshire (as last year’s General Election results would suggest), somebody has to pick up that vote, and that has to be the Conservatives, at least in the constituencies.

    I’d expect to see the Conservatives make up vote share in a number of places where neither they, the Lib Dems or Labour are competitive, and it will be interesting to see if this is translated to the list vote.

    Particular examples of depressed Conservative vote shares from 2011 are Aberdeenshire East (13.9%), Edinburgh Central (15.0%) and Perthshire North (26.3%).

    Of course, there will be seats such as Edinburgh Western and Fife North East where many Conservatives will vote tactically, but this is unlikely to see their vote share drop significantly, as this kind of tactical voting also played a key role in 2011, and the number of seats where there is the potential for tactical voting to work is much lower.

  43. I’m pretty certain the Conservative vote share will be down in Pentlands next month from 2011.

  44. I guess the thought was you want someone who can devote time to campaigning in the constituency to take a theoretically winnable seat (not that I think Pentlands is realistically winnable).

  45. Aberdeenshire East and Edinburgh Central will be up because the notionals put them up, and conversely Galloway and Pentlands will be down for that same reason. I think that they might go down in Ayr to.

    Under what logic is Pentlands “winnable” with any candidate? Because it’s not, their vote is probably going down regardless. Better to stand Ruth in a constituency seat where the Conservatives can create some illusion that they are on the up than to stand her in a constituency where she stands a chance of administering a decline in the Tory vote in a constituency that was once winnable.

    The Tories don’t care about the constituency vote: it’s all about the regional vote. They want MSPs, a little blue on the map might look pretty but it doesn’t change the make up of the parliament. The sooner Tory optimists (not just you: there are plenty!!) realise otherwise the better.

  46. In the background, the Conservatives will be viewing constituency seats as much more than incidental, as they are key to any long term strategy.

    In the last couple of days there was a conversation on here about the Conservative ceiling, with the comment that many places such as Pentlands and Eastwood were becoming less accessible to the party due to the lack of a split opposition. Well, in Edinburgh Central they’ve got exactly that, with a strong Labour candidate, a Green MSP and one of the weakest SNP urban vote shares in the country. If they could snatch second place this time around, it would give them a solid shot at the seat next time.

    And although a constituency win might not make any difference to final seat counts, it can have a hand in winning you seat next time at the other parliament. Dunfermline is the case in point, with Wullie Rennie’s 2006 by-election win at Westminster sowing the seeds for Jim Tolson to take the equivalent Holyrood seat the next year, despite starting from 4th place.

    Edinburgh South is a similar example, where after taking the Holyrood seat in 2003, the Lib Dems earned a 6.5% swing from Labour in the 2005 General Election to almost take the seat,

    By standing in Edinburgh Central, Ruth Davidson has at least given the Conservatives a chance of gaining a seat in the medium term, and given recent declines in places such as Pentlands and Eastwood, they desperately need to open a new front where they can at least have a go.

  47. Perfect summary.

  48. Tories win 2 Glasgow Regional List seats.

  49. Local by-election due in the Garscadden and Scoutstounhill ward on 6 October.

  50. SNP gain Garscadden and Scoutstounhill from Labour.

    No breakdown of results yet!

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