Glasgow North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2901 (7.9%)
Labour: 10315 (27.9%)
Lib Dem: 1012 (2.7%)
SNP: 19610 (53.1%)
Green: 2284 (6.2%)
UKIP: 486 (1.3%)
TUSC: 160 (0.4%)
Others: 154 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9295 (25.2%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres: Glasgow.

Profile: The north of Glasgow, the seat contains the large council estate of Summerston on the outskirts of the city and the areas of Maryhill, Kelvingrove and Hillhead. While there are tower blocks and poverty here, there are also handsome original sandstone tenements and large Victorian houses that are popular with Glasgow`s middle classes. Glasgow University is contained within the seat, towards the City centre and the many students and academics mean this is one of the best educated seats in the city.

Politics: Even in the days of Labour hegemony on Glasgow this seat was not quite as monolithically Labour as the others. One of its predecessors, Glasgow Hillhead, was the last Conservative seat in Glasgow and following the death of Tom Galbraith (the father of the present Lord Strathclyde) in 1982 it was won by Roy Jenkins of the SDP. In 2015 it fell to the SNP.


Current MP
PATRICK GRADY (SNP) Educated at Strathclyde University. Contested Glasgow North 2010. First elected as MP for Glasgow North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 2089 (7%)
Lab: 13181 (45%)
LDem: 9283 (31%)
SNP: 3530 (12%)
Oth: 1530 (5%)
MAJ: 3898 (13%)
2005
Con: 2441 (9%)
Lab: 11001 (39%)
LDem: 7663 (27%)
SNP: 3614 (13%)
Oth: 3202 (11%)
MAJ: 3338 (12%)
2001*
Con: 1162 (5%)
Lab: 13420 (60%)
LDem: 2372 (11%)
SNP: 3532 (16%)
Oth: 1745 (8%)
MAJ: 9888 (44%)
1997
Con: 1747 (6%)
Lab: 19301 (65%)
LDem: 2119 (7%)
SNP: 5037 (17%)
Oth: 1517 (5%)
MAJ: 14264 (48%)

2015 Candidates
LAUREN HANKINSON (Conservative) Parliamentary advisor.
ANN MCKECHIN (Labour) Born 1961, Paisley. Educated at Paisley Grammar School and Strathclyde University. Solicitor. Contested Scotland 1999 European Election. MP for Glasgow Maryhill 2001 to 2015. PPS to Jacqui Smith 2005. Under-secretary of State for Scotland 2008-2010. Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland 2010-2011.
JADE O

Comments - 124 Responses on “Glasgow North”
  1. Interesting coverage of the Glasgow Hillhead by election on another post. The media were confident that Gerald Malone was ahead 2 weeks before polling day.

    Had Gerald Malone won, he would surely have lost to Neil Carmichael in the enlarged Hillhead (annexing the more Labour half of Glasgow Kelvingrove) in 1983.

    The Lib Dems would have won the 1983 – 1997 Glasgow Hilhead in 2005 and held it in 2010.

    The 1974 – 1979 Glasgow Hillhead would have been won back by the Lib Dems in 2001 while the 1955 – 1974 Glasgow Hillhead (that excluded Scoutson & Whitinch) may not have been won by the SDP in the by election but if it had been would have been SDP / Lib Dem from 1982 to today.

  2. I posted some footage of a few 1982 by-elections on my YouTube channel recently, including Glasgow Hillhead:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVKIFfwWRg8&amp

  3. Here is how I believe that the current Glasgow constituencies would have voted in the 1955 General Election. I have also indicated when they would have been gained by Labour in their timescale.

    Glasgow Central (All of Glasgow Gorbal and Glasgow Kelvingrove and parts of Glasgow Bridgeton, Glasgow Cathcart, Glasgow Central and Glasgow Govan).
    Conservative 1955 – 1959, Labour 1959 onwards.

    Glasgow East (Most of Glasgow Shettleston and parts of Glasgow Bridgeton, Glasgow Provan, Rutherglen and Bothwell)
    Labour 1955 – 2008, SNP 2008 – 2010 and Labour 2010 onwards.

    Glasgow North (All of Glasgow Woodside plus parts of Glasgow Hillhead and Glasgow Maryhill).
    Conservative 1955 – 1966, Labour 1966 onwards

    Glasgow North East (Glasgow Springburn and parts of Glasgow Provan, Glasgow Maryhill and Glasgow Central).
    Labour 1955 onwards.

    Glasgow North West (All of Glasgow Scotstoun plus part of Glasgow Hillhead)
    Conservative 1955, Too Close to Call in 1959, Labour 1964 onwards.

    Glasgow South (Most of Glasgow Cathcart plus part of Glasgow Pollok and Rutherglen).
    Conservative 1955 – 1979, Labour 1979 onwards.

    Glasgow South West (All of Glasgow Craigton and most of Glasgow Govan and Glasgow Pollok)
    Conservative 1955 – 1959, *Labour 1959 onwards.

    Had the 1967 Glasgow Pollok by election occurred on these boundaries the SNP and not the Conservatives may have gained the seat. In addition, had by elections that occurred in place of Glasgow Govan 1973 and 1988 occurred here, there may also have been an SNP gain. Had seats been gained, they would have been lost at the successive general election.

    In 1955, 2 of the current Glasgow constituencies would have been Labour and 5 Conservative.

    In 1970, 6 would have been Labour and 1 Conservative. Labour would have won every seat in the city for the first time in 1979, instead of 1987.

    Had the current 1955 – Feb 1974 constituencies existed in 2010, Glasgow Hillhead and perhaps Glasgow Woodside would have been won by the Lib Dems, with Glasgow Govan, Glasgow Pollok and Glasgow Kelvingrove being closer with the SNP.

  4. That’s actually quite interesting & well done, Peter. Thanks.

  5. “Had the current 1955 – Feb 1974 constituencies existed in 2010, Glasgow Hillhead and perhaps Glasgow Woodside would have been won by the Lib Dems, with Glasgow Govan, Glasgow Pollok and Glasgow Kelvingrove being closer with the SNP.”

    By ‘closer’, I did not mean marginal, I meant that the SNP would be less than 20% behind in Glasgow Govan, Glasgow Pollok and Glasgow Kelvingrove, wheras Labour would be over 40 or 50% ahead in the other Glasgow constituencies…even Glasgow Shettleston…as the Glasgow East SNP vote would have been concentrated in the parts of the constituency that were Bothwell (Ballieston and Sandy Hills) and Rutherglen (Mount Vernon).

  6. That by-elections clip is excellent Anday. Where do you find this gold?

    The number of minor traffic offences during the Hillhead campain are also entertaining.

  7. Why is this regarded as a Safe Labour Seat with a 13% majority and other constituencies with majorities up to 20% are are Semi Marginal Labour Seats?

  8. @Dalek

    Maybe because the LDs are second here. It seems like they are haemorraging support across Scotland, so Labour’s share and majority may only go in one direction in 2015…

    …or may not if the SNP sweep up those Lib Dem votes. I have a feeling in my gut that losing the 2014 referendum wouldn’t actually hurt the SNP in the long run given the poor state of the UK parties north of the border.

  9. The Lib Dems were only strong here because of their 2010 candidate – who pretty much built the seat into a potentially winnable one.

    After falling out with the local party and then the rather incompetent local party collapsing at the local elections under the weigh of their sheer incompetence, I very much doubt this Lib Dems will do well here.

    Third, with maybe 3,500 votes. Maybe, at a push. Most of those votes they lose will split Labour/SNP. Anne McKechin will probably be back in with more than 50% of the vote.

  10. The Lib Dems would have won Glasgow Hillhead as it existed between 1983 and 1997 in 2010.

    Labour’s best parts of Glasgow Hillhead (Anderston and Scotstoun) are not included in Glasgow North so the Hillhead parts will be fairly Liberal, while what was Glasgow Maryhill will be massively Labour.

  11. 2015 Forecast for Glasgow N, my sister is at University here

    Lab 45 (-)
    SNP 25 (+13)
    LD 13
    Con 7
    Green 6
    Others 4

  12. Some months ago I thought that the switch from the main challenger to Labour switching from the Lib Dems to the SNP would double the Labour majority but I now think that the SNP have the potential to come as close as the Lib Dems did in 2005 and 2010. The SNP will also do better in the former Maryhill part. The Lib Dem polled strongly in what was once Hillhead but will have got next to nothing in what was Maryhill – and were thus stuck at 31% as their vote could go further than Glasgow s West End.

  13. …could go no further that….

  14. ….could go no further than….

  15. A 20 point drop in the LD share here wouldn’t be a surprise.

  16. It could be more like 25

  17. Possibly, but there has been a long trend of no or low growth in real wages. It’s not obvious that the underlying circumstances causing that have changed. What’s more, we can’t say for certain that real wage growth on its own would be enough. It fell far enough that people may take quite some time to stop feeling squeezed. Or they might not, of course, but we don’t have any useful data that I’m aware of that might serve as a pointer here.

  18. Sorry, that wasn’t supposed to be posted on this thread. It was intended as a contribution to the Northampton North discussion. Not sure what happened there.

  19. “A 20 point drop in the LD share here wouldn’t be a surprise.”

    The Lib Dems performed better in Glasgow Kelvin in 2011 than in most other Scottish constituencies. Their vote fell from 13.9% to 7.7% (losing 44.6% of their vote).

    In Cunningham North they fell from 6.0% to 1.8% (losing 70% of their vote) and in Eastwood from 10.3% to 2.8% (losing 72.8% of their vote).

    I think that many posters may believe that the Lib Dem vote comes largely from the three universities (Glasgow, Strathclyde and Glasgow Caledonia) but I believe that the student vote will have been much more pro-Labour (and SNP) than in English university towns or Edinburgh.
    The Lib Dem support in Glasgow North will be the kinds of people who voted for Roy Jenkins in 1983 and 1987 – people who wanted a non-Conservative alternative to Labour (and the SNP).

    The loss of Lib Dem support appears less severe here than in other Scottish constituencies, so there is the possibility that the Lib Dems may still maintain second place – albeit with a significant increase in the Labour majority.

    I just think that the Lib Dems lost 44.6% of their vote in 2015 they would still have over 5000 (and the fall in 2015 may not be as severe). If they polled 6000 they could still beat the SNP.

  20. This is interesting because the SNP failed to take Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn in 2011 but the YES vote went on to poll heavily in that constituency in September.

    The SNP did win Glasgow Kelvin (an a very small swing compared to other Scottish seats) but it is not clear whether the 9000 + Lib Dem vote here that is more concentrated is Kelvin than Maryhill is more pro-independence or Unionist.

    Two factors here are important….how the former Lib Dem vote will redistribute and if the Greens field a candidate.

    The Greens would take the portion of the former Lib Dem vote that would be most likely otherwise to vote SNP.

  21. It’s true that the Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn constituency voted Labour in 2011.

    However, when it comes to the Westminster elections, Maryhill (Glasgow North) and Springburn (North East) are split into different seats.

    Springburn is traditionally one of the most Labour-heavy areas in Glasgow. In the 2012 council elections, Labour won 58% of first votes in the seat, only exceeded in Garscadden/Scotstounhill (60%), Drumchapel/Anniesland (61%), East Centre (59%), Shettleston (60%), North East (64%). By comparison, Maryhill/Kelvin voted 40% Labour and 34% SNP (and 7% Green).

    So it’s likely that Springburn tipped the Maryhill Holyrood seat towards Labour.

    In terms of the 2015 election, Maryhill is likely to be very finely balanced between Labour and SNP, whereas the Kelvin and Hillhead parts of the ward are likely to swing behind the SNP.

    Saying that, though, even the Kelvin seat wasn’t won too comprehensively by the SNP in 2011, since the Labour vote was also up 6%, compared to the 14% rise in the SNP vote.

  22. I noticed there is a big difference in opinion on this seat:
    electoralcalculus.co.uk and
    Ladbrokes both make LAB favourites to win but
    electionforecast.co.uk prediction is an 11% win for SNP

    Shame Ashcroft has not done any Scottish seats.

    I have LAB winning all of Glasgow EXCEPT GLASGOW NORTH.

    I would have thought Scottish seats ought to be discussed more as it now looking unlikely that LAB will be the largest party if the SNP polling holds up.

    I have LAB only 268-272 MPs in that scenario.

  23. Ladbrokes have the SNP as favourites in Glasgow North, and quite convincingly so.

    Electoral calculus also has the SNP to win the seat.

    I have this and Glasgow Central down as SNP gains. East and South are toss-ups for the moment.

  24. Lib Dems from 31% to 4%. And others at 13% (mostly Greens I imagine).

    The dynamic here is largely similar to the 2011 Glasgow Kelvin vote, where the Labour vote doesn’t fall a great deal in relative terms (it actually increased in 2011), with a reasonable percentage of Lib Dem switchers presumably making up for the Lab->SNP switchers (Rest of UK students?)

  25. I know the Lib Dems are in trouble right across Britain, but that collapse (if accurate) is quite spectacular.

  26. The collapse is disappointing, but not at all surprising. I would be very, very surprised to see us hold any deposits in Strathclyde, bar East Dunbartonshire and Argyll. This is the only other possibility, but AFAIK it has always been somewhat of a one woman band.

  27. Article in the (Glasgow) Evening Times looking at Glasgow North, with comments from McKechin and the SNP candidate.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/battle-for-glasgow-north-196582n.117843733

  28. Jade O’Neil, the convenor of Scottish Women Liberal Democrats, has been selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate.

  29. This is the only Glasgow seat where the Lib Dems may save their deposit.

    Their only Glasgow City Councillor is in Glasgow South but I suspect that she was elected on a personal level than as a Lib Dem.

  30. The profile states that Kelvingrove is in this constituency. Kelvingrove is in fact part of Glasgow Central.

  31. Current Nowcast projection for Glasgow North (medium of each range) –

    SNP 12793 43.2%
    Lab 9210 31.1%
    Green 2961 10.0%
    Con 1510 5.1%
    LD 1303 4.4%
    UKIP 207 0.7%

    SNP Maj 3583 12.1%

  32. Labour Hold

  33. Glasgow Kelvin looks like it could be interesting at Holyrood next year. Patrick Harvie of the Greens will be taking on SNP left-winger Sandra White, who herself has been heavily involved with Radical Independence and is also part of the fundamental “Independence Now” wing of the Party.

    I would suggest that her strong left-wing, anti-Nato credentials mean she is not the ideal opponent for Harvie, although he may benefit from proposing a more gradualist approach to achieving independence. It will be interesting to see how Labour benefit from such a battle. Rumours suggest that Glasgow council leader Gordon Matheson may stand.

  34. Holyrood – May 2016

    Glasgow Kelvin

    SNP 9500
    Green 6500
    Lab 6000
    Con 1700
    LD 800

    SNP Hold

    Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

    SNP 9900
    Lab 8900
    Con 1200
    LD 700

    SNP Gain from Lab

  35. I think the SNP ought to be further ahead of Labour, given that they won every seat in Glasgow with substantial majorities (most are just about 10,000) in 2015. I suspect, also, that turnout may be higher next year than has historically been the case. I’d also be very surprised if the Greens were second in Kelvin.

  36. Agree with Simon, Labour at 1,000 votes behind SNP in Maryhill and Springburn – an area with the joint highest Yes vote (57%) in Glasgow – is very questionable. The results in Glasgow NE showed that the SNP did well where their was a higher Yes vote – so I’m highly doubtful that the Tory, Lib Dem and Labour vote would surpass the SNP vote in the constituency. None of the results in Glasgow were nearly that marginal in the General Election!

    As for Kelvin, why such a good result for the Yes parties in the seat with the third lowest Yes vote in Glasgow? It’s very unlikely that the Greens will beat Labour in this seat, although they might pull out a surprisingly good performance which – if anything – would benefit Labour (as I imagine the Green vote would be predominantly made up of would-be SNP/Yes voters).

    As Simon also mentioned, I’d imagine there would be higher turnouts in both seats.

  37. Anthony, this page is buggered.

    This seat’s been the site of many a politically interesting story. The SDP gain in 1982, Roy Jenkins being unseated by a young Labour MP by the name of George Galloway, followed by a big SNP gain.

  38. It’s all in bold…

  39. I suspect that the Greens will probably take disproportionately from the SNP, but they will take some from Labour too. I don’t think their vote is as focused on the constitutional issue as most other parties are, so will be more mixed, especially in seats with a high student population.

  40. I wonder how many other seats there are which have been held by all four parties in the last generation or so. East Dunbartonshire is the only other one that springs to mind.

    Also, half of the 2015 candidates are missing from the page.

  41. Inverness was Conservative until 1964, Liberal / LD from 1964 to 1997 and 2005 to 2015, Labour 1997 to 2005 and SNP since 2015….but that’s 2 generations….

  42. Caithness & Sutherland was Conservative until 1964, Liberal / LD from 1964 to 1966 and 1981 to 2015, Labour 1966 to 1981 and SNP since 2015….but that’s 2 generations….

  43. Thanks!

  44. Tristram may be a Labour or Lib Dem MP who lost his seat.

  45. I see there are morons on here who can’t even spell a name correctly. Dear God.

  46. Ah, I see: now errors of nomenclature are so important that they are grounds for being insulting, whereas before you needed to “get a life” if you cared about them?

  47. The lesson being, let’s all be nice to each other, and enjoy the tremendous resources of information on here. I love getting a sense of different constituences and political cultures across the country

  48. It is weird looking at the descriptions of these seats which were rock solid for Labour or the Lib Dems now described as safe for another party after just one election, although that may be true.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)