Glasgow East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2544 (6%)
Labour: 13729 (32.4%)
Lib Dem: 318 (0.7%)
SNP: 24116 (56.9%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1105 (2.6%)
Others: 224 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10387 (24.5%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres: Glasgow.

Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow`s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture.

Politics: Like most of the Glasgow seats, this was a safe Labour seat until the 2015 SNP landslide. The 2008 by-election that followed the death of David Marshall was won by the SNP on a huge swing of 22%, but normal service was immediately resumed come the 2010 general election when Labour regained the seat with ease.


Current MP
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Former policy advisor. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 1453 (5%)
Lab: 19797 (62%)
LDem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (25%)
Oth: 1340 (4%)
MAJ: 11840 (37%)
2005
Con: 2135 (7%)
Lab: 18775 (61%)
LDem: 3665 (12%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Oth: 1096 (4%)
MAJ: 13507 (44%)
2001*
Con: 1580 (7%)
Lab: 14200 (61%)
LDem: 1551 (7%)
SNP: 4361 (19%)
Oth: 1569 (7%)
MAJ: 9839 (42%)
1997
Con: 2468 (8%)
Lab: 20925 (66%)
LDem: 1217 (4%)
SNP: 6085 (19%)
Oth: 1158 (4%)
MAJ: 14840 (47%)

2015 Candidates
ANDREW MORRISON (Conservative) Educated at St Mungos Academy and Oxford Brookes University. Chartered accountant.
MARGARET CURRAN (Labour) Born 1958. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis School and Glasgow University. Lecturer and minister in the Scottish government. Contested Glasgow East by-election 2008. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston 1999-2011. MP for Glasgow East 2010 to 2015. Shadow Scottish Secretary since 2011.
GARY MCLELLAND (Liberal Democrat)
ARTHUR MISTY THACKERAY (UKIP) Contested Glasgow East 2010.
KIM LONG (Green)
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Policy advisor.
LIAM MCLAUGHLAN (Scottish Socialist Party (SSP))
Links
Comments - 219 Responses on “Glasgow East”
  1. I think the SNP would hold a by election because the won Shettleston last May by a massive majority despite this controversy. Labour held a by election in Cathcart following Mike Watson’s conviction for arson. Scotland may now be the inverse of what it was with the Lab and SNP positions inverted.

  2. I imagine any By-election here would be a close 2 horse race as all Scottish Parliamentary By-elections have been over the years (Monklands being particularly nasty).

    She doesn’t have to resign her seat even if convicted and jailed of course.

    But I’d expect her to.

  3. @ Dalek – Natalie has resigned from the group and is an independent: the choice is hers I suppose?

  4. @Max I assume even you aren’t predicting a Tory gain for either of them.

  5. I’d assume that, if she was to be found guilty of most or all of the charges, a jail sentence long enough to automatically trigger a by-election is likely. I kind of disagree with NTYUK, in that I’d assume that the police and the fiscal wouldn’t proceed unless they feel they have a reasonably good prospect of a conviction. These things always look bad if the case collapses at an early stage.

  6. I think it’s pretty unlikely that there will be a by-election in Edinburgh West. I think that it’s going to be pretty difficult to prove the allegations against Michelle Thomson to a criminal standard, and I would guess that it’s fairly likely that no charges will be brought for that reason. In that case, I assume that the whip would be restored, and she would be free to resume her Parliamentary career (although she may not be in the best position if someone gets squeezed out due to boundary changes).

  7. The allegations against Michelle Thomson were to do with her business dealings with a solicitor who was struck off prior to her election. She ran a property business, and was cited in the Law Society case against the solicitor. I forget the finer details but there will be links on the Edinburgh West thread if you want to read up on it.

  8. This story suggests Michelle Thomson might soon get the whip back – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37363240

    Not clear from that if the investigation is still ongoing, though.

    On McGarry the charges are certainly serious – I don’t have a clue how likely or not it is that she will be found guilty of them, but obviously the charges would not have been brought unless there was some evidence.

  9. “I think it’s pretty unlikely that there will be a by-election in Edinburgh West. I think that it’s going to be pretty difficult to prove the allegations against Michelle Thomson to a criminal standard, and I would guess that it’s fairly likely that no charges will be brought for that reason. In that case, I assume that the whip would be restored, and she would be free to resume her Parliamentary career (although she may not be in the best position if someone gets squeezed out due to boundary changes).”

    Agree with this completely.

    Natalie has been charged with embezzlement, breach of the trust and breaking the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013-14, I think there is a real possibility of a by-election in Glasgow East.

  10. Yes it should be an SNP, anything else would be terrible news for the party.

  11. Hard to say what will happen in a by-election. The difficulty is whether Labour’s terrible Scottish poll ratings, or their relatively robust local by-election performance tells us more about how well they’ll do. I’d assume an SNP hold with a somewhat reduced majority but it’s hard to be really sure.

  12. controversy

  13. January 23rd 2017

    McGuinness, Natasha (SNP-SF) 10,211
    Curran (Lab) 10,155
    The rest…..

    Maj 56
    0.1%

  14. NTY UK – yes, it’s always the choice of the Member whether or not to resign, (even if they possess the Whip).

    Sadly, Zac’s Recall Bill didn’t make it onto the Statute book.

    It would certainly be a short lived elected career if she goes. Although I think she’s been an SNP activist since she was 15, as with Nicola Sturgeon.

    I suppose the SNP surge/landslide was always going to result in a few unchecked bad apples becoming MPs, but they have no excuse with her, as IIRC she’s been regional organiser and so on. Glasgow does produce a disproportionate number of Court cases involving local politicos, of course.

  15. @Lancs Observer My understanding was that a prison sentence of a year or more would automatically trigger a by-election. The House also has the option to expel a member, although I’d imagine that’s unlikely in a case like this.

    I think the problem for the SNP with McGarry is that she had been in a variety of positions of responsibility with no obvious issues. She was a by-election candidate in 2014 so that would suggest that nobody was aware of any concerns at that point. I haven’t heard any allegations of concerning behaviour prior to her election as an MP. All the allegations that led to the criminal charges were made after the election.

    In some ways, I have more sympathy with the claims that the SNP should have weeded out Michelle Thomson pre-election. If you’re going to have a property developer as a candidate, especially for a left of centre party, you’d want to do all you can to make sure everything is squeaky clean.

  16. If there were to be by elections in Edinburgh West and Glasgow East on the same day I think that the Lib Dems would gain Edinburgh West but the SNP would hold (or gain from Independent) Glasgow East.

    Since the Scottish Parliament has been created in 1999, 4 of Edinburgh’s 6 constituencies have been held by three different parties. By contrast, in Glasgow we have only seen a shift from Labour to SNP.

    It’s fair to say that Glasgow voters are far more tribal than Edinburgh voters. Consider when Mike Watson was convicted of arson and the relative ease with which Labour retained the subsequent Glasgow Cathcart By Election. Had an Edinburgh MSP been convicted or arson it’s almost certain that their seat would have been lost.

    What seems to be the case is that Glasgow’s long standing tribal support for Labour seems to have transferred to the SNP (at least in the short term).

  17. On the other hand, the SNP have won other by-elections in Glasgow in Govan in 1988 and Glasgow East in 2008 or so. Maybe Glasgow voters are intelligent enough to vote for the party they feel best represents their views rather than punishing a party because of the wrongs of an individual who is not on the ballot paper.

    Also,, the reason that Glasgow isn’t fertile ground for the Tories and the Lib Dems has much more to do with demographics, and the extent to which these parties have policies that appeal to voters in relatively working class communities.

  18. I was not saying that Glasgow voters were stupid, only that they were more loyal to the established political party (formerly Labour and now the SNP) than Edinburgh voters.

    I agree that, as with Mike Watson, the voters in any by election would not blame the new SNP candidate for McGarry’s actions.

    The SNP also held Glasgow Shettleston increasing a majority of under 3% to nearly 30% despite the McGarry controversy and also gained Glasgow Provan very comfortably despite quite a personal campaign against the SNP candidate by Paul Martin.

    These factors would all point to an SNP hold (or SNP gain) in a Glasgow East By Election.

  19. “SNP hold, come hell or high water…”

    If recent local council by-elections are anything to go by there is a remote possibility of a Labour gain here (unlikely due to turnout discrepancies, but possible?)

  20. Oh definitely

    On a good day for Labour I could see the SNP majority falling to about 10% (SNP 48 Lab 38) if the campaign was largely run on local issues, on the other hand if it’s largely a proxy for independence etc it’s more likely that the majority would stay around 25%.

    But overall differential turnout still heavily favours the SNP where it’s highest in Garrowhill and the SNP is most dug in like the last by election and I’ll be surprised if turnout is higher than the 42% 2008 which was actually fairly high considering only 53.4% of people voted in the EU referendum.

  21. Simon – yes, only if jailed for 12 months or over is a Member then barred.

  22. If McGarry is convicted and gets a suspended sentence or less than 12 months she could remain the MP here.

    If there is a by election the new MP (most likely SNP) would have to compete with their 6 colleagues for the 6 new Glasgow constituencies (as 1 will be abolished).

    If McGarry continues there will be no need for an SNP game of musical chairs.

  23. 2020

    Glasgow East

    *Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 24514
    Margaret Curren (Lab) 13761
    *Natalie McGarry (Con) 6766
    Percy Nobody (Lib Dem) 1262

    SNP Majority 10753

    SNP Gain from Conservative

  24. Lol!
    Don’t you think the Lib Dems would have a good chance here, given the mess Labour and now the SNP have got themselves into.

    I haven’t had a chance to get to Glasgow yet.
    For ages I was calling out desperately for paper but nobody would help.
    If the LIb Dems come out for Brexit aswell the momentum will be stupendous!

  25. I could see a by-election here going something along the lines of:

    SNP 43%
    LAB 38%
    CON 12%
    OTH 7%

  26. NTY [email protected] nope…my joke was that McGarry joined her boyfriends party and was defeated at the subsequent general election.

  27. I think there would be a small swing to Labour in a by election but not over 10%. The SNP won heavily in Glasgow Shettleston and Glasgow Proven last May despite the McGarry saga. McGarry is also not SNP but and independent. It was actually members of the wider nationalist movement who blew the whistle.

  28. SNP MSP John Mason has referred to 3 IRA terrorists who murdered 3 Scottish soldiers as, “freedom fighters.”

    The SNP has yet to comment other than confirming that complaints have been received.

  29. It’s no surprise that this MP was one of only 13 to oppose the General Election in the Commons, today.

  30. Who were the 13 MPs?

  31. Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thornton are not standing again.

  32. The Conservatives have won a council seat in Shettleston Ward.

    http://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/glasgow-council-elections-live-results-12990191

  33. Biggest result so far ?

  34. I still predict that the SNP will hold on here. Cant see the torries making it near 30% to have any chance of a gain here.

  35. You predict that the Tories will fail to gain Glasgow East? Sticking your neck out a bit too far, aren’t you?! 😀

  36. Glasgow

    Con Hold Seat In –

    Pollokshields (South Side)

    Con Gain Seat In –

    Baillieston (West End)
    Calton (East End)
    Linn (South Side)
    Newlands/ Auldburn (South Side)
    Partick East/ Kelvindale (West End)
    Shettleston (East End)
    Victoria Park (West End)

  37. From 1 Con & Unionist Cllr to 8 in Glasgow and a direct swing from Labour to Cons admitted by Labour.

    Didn’t Scotty say that was an almost impossible thing?

  38. So after Thomas Kerr’s victory here seemed to be the one the papers picked up on for their front-page photo illustrating the Tory surge, the BBC have done a bit of a bio:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39830851

    Apparently, he was initially a Labour Party member, and some fellow members accused him of being too right-wing so he joined the Tories instead. Sound familiar? 😉

  39. Who would have thought that all the complete council wards within this constituency would be represented by a Conservative councillor and that of the 8 Tory council seats in Glasgow would be within the Glasgow East constituency?

  40. Who would have thought that all the complete council wards within this constituency would be represented by a Conservative councillor and that of the 8 Tory council seats in Glasgow 3 would be within the Glasgow East constituency?

  41. Davena Rankin?

  42. Rankin defected to Labour years ago

  43. Not a very well-timed defection, at least from a self-interested point of view…

  44. Rankin was a Scottish Conservative poster girl due to her underprivileged background (growing up in Drumchapel and being a single mum). She is a trade unionist and perhaps found pressure as a Conservative amongst her trade union colleagues during the age of austerity.

    It’s ironic that her defection was not well timed and she would have prospered in the revived Scottish Conservative party and may now have been a Glasgow Regional List MSP or Westminster candidate for East Renfrewshire.

  45. SNP. 17814
    Con. 9926
    Lab. 9821
    LD. 768
    G. 621

  46. Dalek when did Baillieston move from eastern outskirts of Glasgow to the West End?

  47. Also the result in Glasgow East was remarkable:

    SNP 14,024 (38.8%)
    Lab 13,949 (38.6%)
    Con 6,816 (18.8%)
    LD 576 (1.6%)
    UKIP 502 (1.4%)
    Ind 158 (0.4%)
    SD 148 (0.4%)

  48. It illustrates the challenge for the SNP: how do they position themselves over the next few years such that they hold both Glasgow East AND Perth & North Perthshire?

    I’m very surprised at how Corbyn has regained credibility for Labour on the left of Scottish politics. It’s no longer weird for my pro-independence friends to be pro-Labour; the “Red Tories” line seemed to disappear overnight during the campaign.

  49. Bill Patrick
    “I’m very surprised at how Corbyn has regained credibility for Labour on the left of Scottish politics. It’s no longer weird for my pro-independence friends to be pro-Labour; the “Red Tories” line seemed to disappear overnight during the campaign”

    I think Indy2 was yet another issue where Corbyn (intentionally or accidentally) walked the tightrope near perfectly. His soft unionism and ambivalence towards a 2nd Indy ref seems to have endeared him to SNP voters while not driving away unionist voters in any great number. Like the EU he came under a lot of flak for his position before the election but appears to have been vindicated since.

    What’s more from my observations of Cyber Nats it appears that a lot more would have (or at least claim they would have) voted Labour had it not been for Kezia Dugdale and most of Scottish Labour. Now I think this is very unfair on Kezia who is certainly no Blairite but a lot of Cyber Nats claim that it was Kezia’s comments regarding unionist tactical voting that drove them to stick with the SNP.

  50. “…a lot of Cyber Nats claim that it was Kezia’s comments regarding unionist tactical voting that drove them to stick with the SNP.”

    “Claim” being the operative word.

    Cybernats have been struggling for two years now with Jeremy Corbyn thoroughly outflanking their “progressive” rhetoric (though to be honest even Ed Miliband was probably to the left of a large section of the SNP). At least before the June election they had the “well he’s unelectable, even if we voted for him those nasty Little Englanders wouldn’t, we’d rather live in an independent Scotland than have perpetual Tory rule” argument. Now that one’s been revealed to be bollocks too, they are coming up with increasingly contorted, ad-hoc justifications for continuing to support the nationalist cause. It’s beginning to resemble the classic creationist trope where you start with the belief and then bend all available evidence, however contradictory, into the central thesis.

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