Glasgow East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2544 (6%)
Labour: 13729 (32.4%)
Lib Dem: 318 (0.7%)
SNP: 24116 (56.9%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1105 (2.6%)
Others: 224 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10387 (24.5%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres: Glasgow.

Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow`s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture.

Politics: Like most of the Glasgow seats, this was a safe Labour seat until the 2015 SNP landslide. The 2008 by-election that followed the death of David Marshall was won by the SNP on a huge swing of 22%, but normal service was immediately resumed come the 2010 general election when Labour regained the seat with ease.


Current MP
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Former policy advisor. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 1453 (5%)
Lab: 19797 (62%)
LDem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (25%)
Oth: 1340 (4%)
MAJ: 11840 (37%)
2005
Con: 2135 (7%)
Lab: 18775 (61%)
LDem: 3665 (12%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Oth: 1096 (4%)
MAJ: 13507 (44%)
2001*
Con: 1580 (7%)
Lab: 14200 (61%)
LDem: 1551 (7%)
SNP: 4361 (19%)
Oth: 1569 (7%)
MAJ: 9839 (42%)
1997
Con: 2468 (8%)
Lab: 20925 (66%)
LDem: 1217 (4%)
SNP: 6085 (19%)
Oth: 1158 (4%)
MAJ: 14840 (47%)

2015 Candidates
ANDREW MORRISON (Conservative) Educated at St Mungos Academy and Oxford Brookes University. Chartered accountant.
MARGARET CURRAN (Labour) Born 1958. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis School and Glasgow University. Lecturer and minister in the Scottish government. Contested Glasgow East by-election 2008. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston 1999-2011. MP for Glasgow East 2010 to 2015. Shadow Scottish Secretary since 2011.
GARY MCLELLAND (Liberal Democrat)
ARTHUR MISTY THACKERAY (UKIP) Contested Glasgow East 2010.
KIM LONG (Green)
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Policy advisor.
LIAM MCLAUGHLAN (Scottish Socialist Party (SSP))
Links
Comments - 219 Responses on “Glasgow East”
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  1. I guess they’ll be weighing rather than counting the majority here on election night.

  2. Former MP for Glasgow Provan, Jimmy Wray has died aged 78.

  3. “I guess they’ll be weighing rather than counting the majority here on election night.”

    The scale of the Labour recovery was unprecidented. It is not normal to recover a by election loss with a 5 figure majority touching 40%.

    However, the recovery in the SNP’s fortunes the following year was equally as amazing with the former SNP MP gaining the Holyrood Constituency.

  4. It seemed like John Mason and Margret Curran just did a straight swap.

  5. A strong SNP performance in the East End of Glasgow was not without precedent.

    Popular Glaswegian Dorothy Grace Elder reduced the Labour majority in Glasgow Ballieston in the initial Holyrood elections to under 4000. The SNP vote then collasped in 2003 in the absense of her as candidate, with more of it going to the SSP than Labour.

    I think both individuals are very popular, John Mason initially won a first past the post by election in the Ballieston Ward and remained popular ever since. Margaret Curran was the MSP for Glasgow Ballieston, and the revised Glasgow Shettleston in 2011 was the successor to Glasgow Ballieston (not the previous Glasgow Shettleston).

  6. What would happen if the Northern Ireland Parties started fighting seats in Scotland?

    Glasgow East 2015 –

    Labour: 9600
    Sinn Fein: 7200
    SNP: 6900
    UKIP:2900
    SDLP: 1900
    DUP: 600
    Conservative: 900
    Lib Dem: 800
    BNP: 400

    MAJORITY: 2400

  7. This is listed in Wikipedia as one of two constituencies where the Conservatives failed to retain their deposit (ie polling under 5%).

    Where is the other?

  8. I have just found out that it is The Western Isles. The Conservatives have also lost their deposit in Cumbernauld & Kilsyth in the past.

    How many constituencies have the Conservatives polled less than 5% at some point?

  9. They lost five deposits in 2005 (Blaenau Gwent, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, North Down, Belfast East, Strangford).

    They also lost five deposits in 2001 (Rhondda, North Down, Belfast East, East Antrim and one other)

    In 1997, they lost eight deposits, in Rhondda and seven NI constituencies.

    In 1992, they lost four deposits, I think all in NI. None at all were lost in 1987.

    There’s also been the odd deposit lost at a by-election, most recently in Manchester Central.

  10. Cumbernauld and Kilsyth was the other 2001 lost deposit

  11. I should respectfully like to disagree with Peter’s assertion that Sinn Fein would beat the SNP into 3rd place were they to stand here.

  12. i think dalek’s been watching too much dr who lol

  13. Perhaps even more oddly they held their deposit in East Antrim in 1997. If they’d been able to hold the same sort of vote the following year they’d have had a good chance of an MLA

  14. My forecast for 2015

    Lab 58.1 (-3.7)
    SNP 30.1 (+5.4)
    Con 4.1 (-0.4)
    LD 2.7 (-2.3)
    Others 5

    Turnout 55 (+3)

  15. I think it could be even worse than that for the Lib Dems. Maybe even struggling to get 1% could be on. Certainly not out of the question that both coalition parties combined could fail to make the quota for holding their deposit.

    Surely this is the most anti government seat in the country.

  16. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/25/scotland-danger-snp-independence-labour

    There is an important similarity between Scottish politics and English politics IMO in that the apathetic vote is now the pro SNP/independence vote in Scotland and the apathetic vote in England is now the pro UKIP vote.

  17. I think the evidence that the apathetic vote is actually a vote at all is wanting. A certain strain of opinion amongst radical independence supporters would like to think they’ll romp home off the votes of previous non-voters, but when they’re delusional enough to believe all of Easterhouse supports independence – http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/radical-independence-campaign-could-win-over-missing-million – they may not have paused to consider that the most likely action for a non-voter to take is not to cast a ballot.

  18. I wonder if it might not be a big mistake for the No campaign to be so negative – majoring on how Scotland couldn’t keep the pound, couldn’t rejoin the EU, would need border controls at Berwick etc etc.

    Whilst at the same time Salmond’s campaign is all hope and sunshine.

    The No campaign need to think up some positive reasons for Scotland staying in the union (and there must be plenty of them) and tone down the scaremongering. Salmond is a very canny operator and might yet pull off a narrow victory.

  19. I think Salmond can win the independence referendum by appealing to hearts over minds, something which will be very difficult for his opponents to counter because it’s fundamentally based on emotion rather than logic. Pro-union supporters can keep on producing facts and figures showing that Scotland is better off in the UK but if Salmond turns it into a pro-Scotland versus anti-Scotland occasion it won’t make much difference.

  20. Exactly

  21. I cannot see the Scottish people voting for independence and being stuck with the idiot that is Salmond leading Scotland successfully. He is a class A socialist who seems disinterested in how an independant Scotland would actually pay for his wish-list. Scotland is better off in the union where Salmonds dodgy accounting can be regulated.

    On the plus side, Westminster would get rid of a fair number of Labour MPs

  22. Is this the socialist Salmond that want to cut Corporation Tax to 3% below the UK rate?

  23. Yep…the same one who thinks Scotland would be able to keep the pound and shirk its share of the UK debt.

  24. Of course he doesn’t really think that. He would have to come to a realistic compromise after winning a referendum and he knows that well enough. He also knows that by provoking his opponents into making doom-laden predictions about what an independent Scotland will be unable to do, they are shooting themselves in the foot and helping his campaign.

    If the independence referendum is lost, I wonder if there would be time for a quick deal between the Tories and the SNP – Devo Max in return for a drastic reduction in the number of Scottish MPs and English votes for English laws. Would there be enough time to get it through the commons before the May 2015 election? Would the Lib Dems support it and therefore allow it to pass?

  25. SNP + Tory is almost identical to LD + Lab in numbers. If the tories get DUP to support them (some freebie for NI?) then it could go through.

  26. Salmond has never described himself as a socialist and, indeed, was part of the SNP’s establishment effort to prevent the more avowedly left-wing Jim Sillars gaining the ascendancy within the party. I see them as a populist party without socialist ideology, whereas Plaid Cymru are more apt to use (although occasionally) the word socialist about themselves. One could perhaps stretch a point & describe it as a social democratic party but certainly not socialist. I’m not sure that there’s anything preventing Plaid from applying to join the Socialist International even though they stand against Labour; the SDP applied to join in the early 80s but were rejected.

  27. 304+8(DUP)+6(SNP)+ Evans=319
    257+55=309 (+PC + Green + SDLP + Joyce +Hancock = 318)

    Depends on Galloway, Long and Hermon. If the tories get PC across with the SNP (more devolution to Wales too?) then it would be definately on.

  28. Interesting.

    Though the seat reductions wouldn’t go through before 2015 I presume, so the Tories would not be helped in time for 2015, by which time Miliband could win the election and repeal the deal.

  29. “If the independence referendum is lost, I wonder if there would be time for a quick deal between the Tories and the SNP – Devo Max in return for a drastic reduction in the number of Scottish MPs and English votes for English laws”.

    The Conservative leadership should certainly be thinking along those lines. I’ve said for a while that it is in the interests of the party to embrace devo max. Personally I am not fussed about English votes for English laws. I would settle for a reduction in Scottish representation. The former creates a mess in which a government can have a majority in the Commons on some issues but not others, with the divide between the two being by no means straightforward.

    “…the SDP applied to join in the early 80s but were rejected”.

    I never knew that. On what grounds were they rejected?

  30. He would be repealing the Devo Max too if they were part of the same bill – can’t see him doing that.

  31. There is some interesting information on this (SNP) site about the indepenednence referendum and how (nationalist minded) SNP supporters ‘actually think’.

    http://newsnetscotland.com/

  32. Shettleston byelection result

    Labour 2025
    SNP 1086
    Conservative 225
    UKIP 129
    TUSC 68
    Lib Dem 53
    Anti Spare Room Subsidy 50
    Green 41
    SSP 35
    Christian 34
    Britannica 31

  33. This will be one of the few UK seats in 2015 where both the coalition parties of Conservative and Liberal Democrat will lose their deposits, I presume. Now this prediction for 2015 is assuming a narrow rejection of independence in the Scottish independence referendum, because if Scotland becomes independent as the SNP’s supporters want, Scottish MPs will no longer take Westminster seats (unless independence will take long to implement in practice):

    Lab 57
    SNP 31
    Con 4
    LD 2
    Others 6

  34. Give UKIP outpolled the Conservatives in Glasgow at the European elections, on explanation could be that UKIP are attracting more of the remaining Orange working class vote that non-secretariat middle class vote.

    When you omit the more middle class Glasgow Central, Glasgow North and Glasgow South (with the cities West End and more prosperous Southside areas) UKIP may have a stronger chance of outpolling the Conservatives in Glasgow East, Glasgow North East, Glasgow North West and Glasgow South West (which include much for peripheral poverty).

  35. ‘than’ not that’

  36. This will be an SNP seat if the Ipsos-Mori poll is correct. Astonishing, whether it will materialize is another matter.

  37. There’s some pretty crazy stuff around at the moment, like saying that labour will be wiped out in Glasgow. this seems far-fetched.

  38. Based on today’s polls I think the Labour lead could be cut to even as low as 10% here to be honest. Probably not though, maybe more like 15-20%.

  39. i expect vast labour majorities could be slashed, but i don’t see that many seats changing hands…if labour form the national government in 2015, then they would expect a serious onslaught in 2020…so long term there are risks but i still don’t think 2015 will see that many actual losses on labour’s part, but who knows?

  40. If Ipsos Mori’s poll were correct (which I doubt it will be come May) then UNS would leave only 2 non-SNP seats in Scotland – Glasgow NE and Orkney & Shetland

  41. My prediction for Glasgow west after todays Scottish poll:

    Labour-51%
    SNP- 36%
    Conservative- 6%
    Libdem- 4%
    OTH-3%

  42. Lib dems got 5% last time, they will be lucky to get 2% this time

  43. Its possible UKIP could come third in the poorest Glasgow constituencies (East, South West, and North East).

    At the 2014 European Elections they considerably outpolled the Conservatives in Pollok and Shettleston Holyrood constituences but did not beat the Conservatives in Cathcart or Kelvin.

    Cathcart
    Con 2087
    UKIP 1844

    Kelvin
    Con 1580
    UKIP 1080

    Pollok
    UKIP 1864
    Con 1096

    Shettleston
    UKIP 1861
    Con 1189

    My view is that UKIP may be more appealing to the kinds of people who were once regarded as the Orange vote.

  44. The fight for third should be good here, as only two parties are going to have any decent share of the vote. However, recent regeneration in the area might see the Tories keep their deposit, whereas I’m not sure Ukip will manage (although I agree regarding the Orange vote, most of which will probably stay with Labour as an anti-SNP vote though).

    The Glasgow seats generally have a larger field, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Lib Dems finish 7th or 8th behind Ukip, Greens, SSP (if they field a candidate) and perhaps even any neofascist party that chooses to stand.

  45. Glasgow North and Glasgow South contain most of the cities middle class (all mixed with some traditional working class areas) and to a lesser extent Glasgow Central and Glasgow North West.

    Glasgow East, Glasgow North East and Glasgow South West are solidly working class constituencies (even by Glasgow standards) characteristically dominated by peripheral housing schemes, and it’s is in these three constituencies UKIP is most likely to come third.

  46. I recognize that, Dalek. The point I was trying to make was that the minuscule middle-class Tory element of the seat (4.5% in 2010) is likely to have grown slightly over the past five years as a direct result of the regeneration of the area that has taken place over the last five years, largely as a result of the Commonwealth Games (although I now realise that Dalmarnock, where the regeneration was focused, is actually just within Glasgow Central).

    I am by no means expecting any Tory surge, but a small rise in young professionals into the area might take them into saved-deposit territory.

    I do agree, however, that as a seat with a large Catholic population and, as often happens in a reactionary way, probably a large OO element, Ukip are likely to do not too badly in the seat. I still think they’ll fail to save their deposit though.

  47. Fair point….There are some affluent parts of Baillieston and Mount Vernon….and some fairly nice tenements in Tollcross and Shettleston.

  48. Guardian Tuesday 03 February 2015

    “…Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, the former Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, and current Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran are expected to be among the high-profile politicians forecast to lose their Westminster seats by new polling data published today.

    The highly-anticipated analysis of Scottish constituencies by Lord Ashcroft, will back up recent polls which point to a major rewrite of Scotland’s political map. Labour’s 56 year dominance of general elections north of the border is forecast to end with a historic shift to the nationalists in May. The new poll predicts the demise of the frontline careers of many of Scotland’s current big-hitting pro-union politicians..”

  49. It should be said, that this poll was conducted before Natalie McGarry was selected by the SNP. Now, McGarry gets very vocal criticism among the Twitterati, even from some elements of the SNP. I’m not suggesting that such a negative view is shared by the wider Glasgow public, but momentum could find its way of going against her.

    Also, 8% Others. Green, SSP or Ukip?

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