Edinburgh South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8626 (17.5%)
Labour: 19293 (39.1%)
Lib Dem: 1823 (3.7%)
SNP: 16656 (33.8%)
Green: 2090 (4.2%)
UKIP: 601 (1.2%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2637 (5.4%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Scotland, Lothian. Part of the Edinburgh council area.

Main population centres: Edinburgh.

Profile: Residential suburbs to the south of Edinburgh, set around the Braid hills. It includes traditionally well-to-do neighbourhoods like Morningside as well as student areas like Newington.

Politics: Consistently held by the Conservatives in 1987 Edinburgh South fell to Labour in 1987, later becoming a Labour vs Liberal Democrat marginal. In the 2015 SNP landslide it was the only Labour to withstand the SNP tide, leaving Ian Murray as Scottish Labour`s only MP.


Current MP
IAN MURRAY (Labour) Born 1976, Edinburgh. Educated at Edinburgh University. Former events manager. Edinburgh councillor 2003-2010. First elected as MP for Edinburgh South in 2010. Shadow Scottish Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9452 (22%)
Lab: 15215 (35%)
LDem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (8%)
Oth: 881 (2%)
MAJ: 316 (1%)
2005
Con: 10291 (24%)
Lab: 14188 (33%)
LDem: 13783 (32%)
SNP: 2635 (6%)
Oth: 1801 (4%)
MAJ: 405 (1%)
2001*
Con: 6172 (17%)
Lab: 15671 (42%)
LDem: 10172 (27%)
SNP: 3683 (10%)
Oth: 1468 (4%)
MAJ: 5499 (15%)
1997
Con: 9541 (21%)
Lab: 20993 (47%)
LDem: 7911 (18%)
SNP: 5791 (13%)
Oth: 602 (1%)
MAJ: 11452 (26%)

2015 Candidates
MILES BRIGGS (Conservative) Educated at Perth Grammar School and Robert Gordon University. Political advisor. Contested North East Fife 2010.
IAN MURRAY (Labour) See above.
PRAMOD SUBBARAMAN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at National English School Bangalore and Bangalore Institute of Dental Sciences. Dentist.
PAUL MARSHALL (UKIP)
PHYL MEYER (Green) Driving instructor and consultant.
NEIL HAY (SNP)
COLIN FOX (Scottish Socialist Party (SSP)) Born 1959, Motherwell. Educated at Our Ladys High School and Strathclyde University. Contested Edinburgh South West 2010. MSP for Lothian 2003-2007.
Links
Comments - 477 Responses on “Edinburgh South”
  1. My figures would suggest that the Portobello/Craigmillar and Sighthill/Gorgie wards very narrowly voted in favour of Scottish independence while Colinton/Fairmilehead and Meadows/Morningside went No at over 70% of the vote.

  2. A very interesting article from YouGov regarding Scottish independence voting intention: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/

    From the article polling from YouGov held between August and December 2016 found that in the event of a second referendum on Scottish independence 46% intend to vote No, 39% intend to vote Yes and 11% are undecided (that breaks down to 54% No 46% Yes with Don’t Knows excluded).

    Based on the 2015 UK general election and the 2016 EU referendum No would be starting the campaign in a solid position in councils like Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Highland, Orkney, Shetland, Scottish Borders, South Ayrshire. In contrast Yes would be looking to advance around the Central Belt, in particular around Stirling, Greater Glasgow and Edinburgh.

  3. I would anticipate that No would also do better around the North East where the Leave vote was stronger (Aberdeenshire, Angus and Moray) however the vote is more volatile in that area compared to Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Highland, Orkney, Shetland, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire.

  4. There seems to be very little correlation between Indyref and EU ref voting – the 62% remain vote in Scotland came from pretty much 62% of unionists and 62% of nationalists. There isn’t much of a pattern in how council areas voted across the two referendums either.

  5. There were a number of patterns:
    – Wealthy urban areas tended to have very strong No/Remain votes – for example: East Dunbartonshire (61.2% No:71.4% Remain), East Renfrewshire (63.2% No:74.3% Remain) and Edinburgh (61.1% No:74.4% Remain).
    – Deprived urban areas tended to have decent Yes/Remain votes – for example: Glasgow (53.5% Yes:66.6% Remain) and Inverclyde (50.1% No:63.8% Yes).
    – New towns tended to have stronger Yes/Leave votes – for example: Irvine and Glenrothes both voted Yes and had good Leave votes.
    – Rural areas tended to have better Leave votes – for example Aberdeenshire (55.0% Remain), Dumfries & Galloway (53.1% Remain) and Moray (50.1% Remain).
    – Areas which are traditionally represented by the SNP tended to have better Leave votes – for example Banff & Buchan (54% Leave), Falkirk (56.8% Remain), Moray (50.1% Remain) and North Ayrshire (56.9% Remain).

  6. Yes there are those patterns – but in the round there are not really any patterns that link Yes/No to Leave/Remain directly.

  7. I see Cllr. Nick Cook is switching from the Liberton/Gilmerton ward to the Morningside ward for the forthcoming council election. A cynic might say he is carpet bagging a safer ward to win. 🙂

  8. My own post from the Vote UK site:

    Here’s a fresh set of (sketchy) notionals for all proposed initial constituencies which would be potential Conservative targets in Scotland based on the 2016 Holyrood election constituency results using my 2014 Scottish independence referendum ward notionals. The results are interesting…

    Aberdeen South
    2014:
    63% No
    37% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 42
    Con – 31
    Lab – 20
    Lib – 7
    11% SNP Majority

    Ayr and Carrick
    2014:
    58% No
    42% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 43
    Con – 41
    Lab – 14
    Lib – 2
    2% SNP Majority

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    2014:
    66% No
    34% Yes

    2016:
    Con – 48
    SNP – 36
    Lib – 9
    Lab – 7
    12% Conservative Majority

    Clydesdale and Eskdale
    2014:
    67% No
    33% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 37
    Con – 35
    Lab – 22
    Lib – 3
    Ind – 2
    CSSI – 1
    2% SNP Majority

    Dumfries and Galloway
    2014:
    64% No
    36% Yes

    2016:
    Con – 41
    SNP – 38
    Lab – 18
    Lib – 3
    3% Conservative Majority

    Eastwood and Loudoun (aka. Cunninghame East)
    2014:
    65% No
    35% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 37%
    Con – 33%
    Lab – 27%
    Lib – 3%
    4% SNP Majority

    Edinburgh South West and Central
    2014:
    68% No
    32% Yes

    2016:
    Con – 33
    SNP – 30
    Lab – 28
    Lib – 5
    Grn – 4
    Lbt – 0
    3% Conservative Majority

    Gordon and Deeside
    2014:
    65% No
    35% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 39
    Con – 33
    Lib – 22
    Lab – 6
    6% SNP Majority

    Kincardine and Angus East
    2014:
    60% No
    40% Yes

    2016:
    SNP – 45
    Con – 37
    Lab – 10
    Lib – 8
    8% SNP Majority

    So the Conservative target list based on the 2016 Holyrood election constituency results would be:
    1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – 12% Conservative Majority
    2. Dumfries and Galloway – 3% Conservative Majority
    3. Edinburgh South West and Central – 3% Conservative Majority
    4. Clydesdale and Eskdale – 2% SNP Majority
    5. Ayr and Carrick – 2% SNP Majority
    6. Eastwood and Loudoun – 4% SNP Majority
    7. Gordon and Deeside – 6% SNP Majority
    8. Kincardine and Angus East – 8% SNP Majority
    9. Aberdeen South – 11% SNP Majority

    Important note: there was pro-Labour tactical voting on the constituency vote in Aberdeen South, Clydesdale, Eastwood and Edinburgh South and pro-Liberal Democrat tactical voting in Gordon.

    Based on the latest Panelbase poll the Conservatives would most likely win 7 out of the 9 listed targets.

  9. And for you Labour folk who are desperate for any good news here’s the figures for East Lothian:

    SNP – 40
    Lab – 34
    Con – 22
    Lib – 4
    6% SNP Majority

    I’m not going to attempt Edinburgh West for the Lib Dems but safe to say the boundaries are significantly better for them than the existing Edinburgh West constituency and the Edinburgh Western constituency at the Scottish Parliament: they have a good shot of gaining that seat in 2020.

  10. Excellent work NTY

    What do you say to adding a third statistic to each constituency – that of the vote shares in the EU referendum? Clearly another significant factor, though perhaps not as reliable a predictor as the others?

  11. Thanks NTY, that’s quite illuminating. To me that suggests the Eastwood and Edinburgh seats are going to be a lot harder for Tories to take. Likewise but less so Aberdeen S, which did at least have 33% Leavers.

    The others all look quite reasonable. It’s worth remembering that Tories are still polling as well as they polled at the 2016 Holyrood election, even though 23rd June has come and gone, so whilst there will be significant churn underneath the numbers I wouldn’t expect their chances in most of these others to be worse, on average.

    On the same measure, this is why I think their chances across the Moray / Aberdeenshire region, where Leave polled much closer to 50%, will have slightly improved on the 2016 results / notionals. It needs a lot more analysis and perception than simple UNS to guess where the gains will and won’t be, more than ever before – as I know you will agree.

  12. @ BT Says…:

    The latest Scottish Westminster opinion poll actually has the Conservatives on 27% of the vote (up 5% on the Holyrood constituency vote) with the SNP on 47% of the vote (which is unchanged on the Holyrood constituency vote).

    It’s important to keep in mind the fact that the Eastwood and Edinburgh Southern Holyrood constituencies had a substantial pro-Labour tactical vote which resulted in the Conservatives under-performing by 2.6% of the vote in Eastwood and by 3.1% in Edinburgh Southern in comparison to their respective regional list returns.

    I’m not sure what impact the EU referendum will have on the results of the next UK general election in Scotland although one consistent pattern from recent local council by-elections is that the Conservatives tend to be making their strongest gains in wards which had stronger Leave votes at the EU referendum: in particular around the North East of Scotland. What’s also apparent is that they are in fact making some GAINS in working class/pro-Remain areas as well: just not as strong. With this in mind Conservative gains are likely to be lowest around the Greater Glasgow region as that area had the largest Yes/Remain vote in Scotland.

    Applying the Panelbase figures to a general election and it’s likely that the Conservatives would make some gains in the proposed Edinburgh South West & Central constituency (as opposed to falling back against the SNP): they would most likely gain that seat. It’s likely that they would also gain the proposed Ayr & Carrick, Clydesdale & Eskdale and Gordon & Deeside constituencies as well as “holding” Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Dumfries & Galloway from the Holyrood election. Eastwood & Loudoun is a difficult one to guess although a traditional strong Conservative vote from that constituency makes me inclined to think that the constituency would vote Conservative on a 47% SNP – 27% Conservative result.

    Moray & Nairn would require a swing FROM the SNP to the Conservatives on the Holyrood election. It’s possible but with a 43% Yes vote from that constituency I’m not convinced that the Conservatives will be competitive in that area unless they manage to bring the SNP down towards 45% of the vote nationally.

  13. Moray and Nairn would require a direct swing from SNP to Conservative.*

  14. The secondary consultation period on the proposed boundary changes has begun. As a part of this all responses from members of the public have been publicised.

    Here’s the basic run-down from areas which had a significant number of responses:

    Over 300 responses:
    Ayr, Prestwick and Troon: in favour of joining up Ayr, Prestwick and Troon into a single Westminster constituency

    Over 200 responses:
    Banchory: in protest to splitting up Banchory from the rest of Royal Deeside

    Over 100 responses:
    Dumfriesshire: in protest to joining up Eskdale with Clydesdale
    East Dunbartonshire: in protest to splitting up Bearsden
    Edinburgh South West & Central: mixed response, some in support of the proposed Edinburgh South West & Central constituency and others in support of Ian Murray’s counter-proposal
    South Perthshire: in protest to joining up South Perthshire with Cowdenbeath

  15. Ian Murray’s counter-proposal from the proposed Edinburgh South West and Central boundaries would see City Centre move in with Edinburgh East, swapped out for Southside/Newington.

    This change would actually create Scotland’s ONLY Conservative-Labour marginal: a constituency with a substantial 70% No vote where the SNP would be unlikely to come first or second.

  16. Just like to add from a more personal perspective:
    – Glad to see such a strong response from my own area of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon: I strongly agree with the consensus that Ayr, Prestwick and Troon belong together within a single constituency.
    – I also think that Ian Murray’s counter-proposal in Edinburgh South West & Central makes sense as the suburbs of Newington and Southside are very similar in character to one another and share a number of services etc.

  17. It is possible to include Banchory in with the proposed Gordon and Deeside constituency through ward-splitting.

    This would result in Kincardine joining up with Montrose, Brechin, Forfar and Kirriemuir to form “Kincardine and North Angus”, leaving the eastern part of Dundee to join up with Monifieth, Carnoustie and Arbroath as “Dundee East and South Angus”.

    Personally I much prefer these boundaries.

    Gordon and Deeside would become a very likely Conservative gain on current public opinion polling with the inclusion of Banchory (having voted against independence at around 67% No 33% Yes), with Kincardine and North Angus also becoming a much stronger Conservative target in comparison with the proposed Kincardine and Angus East constituency (voting roughly 62% No 38% Yes).

    If these changes do go through the Conservatives will be in a good position in the North East of Scotland where boundaries are concerned…

  18. No it’s really not? These changes are scheduled to go through from the government’s manifesto from 2015.

  19. The boundary changes are mandated by the government’s manifesto, the fact that they are now overdue and popular support from the general public.

  20. Last time the vote went 334 against – 292 for. Even if 20-odd Conservative MP’s rebel or abstain from the vote this time around it’s likely that the plans will pass. It’s also likely that other parties will support the changes as they are clearly grounded in the Conservative majority government’s manifesto and are overdue (as I’ve mentioned).

  21. It’s hard to see why any fair-minded person would put up a roadblock to passing boundary changes. Way overdue, and only giving due respects to the voters by correcting the unfair weighting of different constituencies due to population ‘drift”.

    I also believe that it will appear less political, and therefore harder to gain support from the public for opposing, under May’s leadership than under Cameron’s.

    Though there is still a possibility that boundary changes go ahead whilst, after all, retaiing 650 MPs. But that would take quite a while to adjust and then get passed.

  22. On a different note, NTY – do you think that proportional swing or uniform swing is a more accurate way of predicting changes in Scottish seats based on current polling? Or does even this depend on which party you’re talking about?

    I can imagine proportional swing being more effective in predicting Conservative vote share changes from 2016 to next GE in individual seats – meaning that in a seat where they are already on eg. 32% they might easily get 40% not 37%, whereas in a seat where they are on 10% they might just get 13% not 15%.

    That’s even before you take into account other factors that always vary the swing away from the national trend of course. (eg in fact that ‘40%’ might actually prove to be 45% – or 35% – based on other pull factors / strength of candidates etc. – as happens at every election). Hence also a word of caution about assuming eg SNP not falling to a losing % in a clutch of seats where they might be expected to retain closer to 50% still based on UNS).

  23. I like Peter Bone, but I’m not sure that too many MPs would take a cue from him – in fact it might work the other way!

  24. @ BT Says…: When I comment on here I tend to use universal swing for safety, although the truth is that it’s a lot more complicated than that. For the SNP I do tend to keep the Scottish independence referendum results in mind as they rarely slip below the Yes vote in any given constituency.

    In practice I think that there are a whole mix of factors in play when determining where the Conservatives are more likely to increase their vote and where they are not. Naturally you would expect areas with stronger Leave/No votes to return larger swings towards the Conservatives (so much of north-east and southern Scotland). In saying that you’ve got a more exhausted Conservative vote in places like Ayr and Edinburgh Pentlands, which could limit any vote increase in those areas. A good point of reference will be the 2017 local elections this May!

  25. NTY

    Fair enough. Thanks for replying. Yes, each election between now and 2020 will give a few more indications in this new epoch that we are in – and no doubt the odd red herring or two as well!

  26. Given the recent polling, the electorate may be in two minds about who is best placed to beat the SNP here (if that is the predominant aim).

    There may therefore be an SNP gain here if they field a good candidate.

  27. Stephanie Smith has been selected for the Conservatives. She also happens to be standing for the Liberton/Gilmerton ward at next weeks council election.

  28. Does that mean a by election for the council seat if she is elected to parliament?

  29. The Greens look to be standing aside here for the SNP. The SNP had a poor candidate here last time around as well, and this constituency had a massive Remain vote.

    At the very least I would expect the SNP vote to increase slightly, probably to the 2014 referendum Yes vote of 35% here.

    A Conservative gain here is unrealistic right now I would say: Labour are well-organised in this part of Edinburgh and have developed as the clear anti-SNP favourites in this constituency.

    The Edinburgh South Westminster boundaries are also not comparable with the Edinburgh Southern Holyrood boundaries as the Holyrood seat omits the most of the SNP’s best ward of Liberton/Gilmerton, where the Conservatives are weakest.

  30. I suspect that this will be a tight Labour-SNP marginal where the result will very much depend on how much of the Labour vote breaks over to the Conservatives, and whether or not the SNP gain votes from disgruntled No/Remain voters here.

    I would put the SNP as the favourites. The Conservatives don’t really stand a chance.

  31. If you’ve nowt t’seh, seh nowt!

  32. PLOPWELLIAN TORY
    LAB 39.2
    SNP 32.7
    CON 25.8
    LDEM 4.3
    April 27th, 2017 at 4:35 pm

    Based on 102% which I have just made up as a guess on the back of my fag packet.

  33. Ian Murray has done an incredible job two elections in a row. Hats off to him if he can hold on again.

  34. He has done well but the main reason he won last time was that the SNP selected a complete clown as a candidate.

  35. Scottyboy’s right, in theory this seat should be similar/slightly better for Labour over East Renfrewshire.

    Ian Murray just got lucky in 2015 with the perfect storm of anti-SNP tactical votes from the Lib Dems and Tories in Edinburgh South alongside a questionable SNP candidate and a poorly managed SNP campaign around Morningside and Newington.

  36. The Conservatives had a considerable stronger notional vote in 2001 on the new boundaries (effectively bringing them to a competitive third place). Tactical voting against Labour in 2005 and 2010 and then for Labour in 2015 has greatly suppressed the potential Conservative vote.

    Without the Neil Hay factor Murray may have suffered the same fate as Russell Brown in Dumfries & Galloway of not only losing his seat but also being beaten into third place by the Conservatives.

    I agree that Ian Murray was certainly a lucky man.

  37. 2016 notional (I’m very surprised by this one?)-

    LAB 37
    SNP 33
    CON 25
    LD 5

  38. Apologies I noticed an error in my figures (I knew they didn’t look right)

    The actual figures:

    LAB 35
    SNP 35
    CON 25
    LD 5

  39. This is turning into one of the best battles of the campaign. Labour up compared to recent Scottish crossbreaks in that Yougov Scottish poll and up again in that opinion poll just released.

  40. Is anyone else getting the feeling that Labour may have reached rock bottom and are very slowly moving in the correct direction?

  41. Labour haven’t hit the floor yet. I think they will lose this constituency to the SNP as anti-SNP tactical voters who voted Labour last time switch over to the Tories.

    Nevertheless I would not rule out a Labour hold here as tactical voting is often unpredictable, and they are well-organised here.

  42. IS Paco McSheepie standing again?

  43. SNP are apparently going to select Alex Eddie…former SNP MSP for Edinburgh Southern. He lost last year despite a rise in his vote…the Unionist vote consolidated around Labour. A resplitting here of the unionist vote due to the strong Conservative performance could allow the SNP to gain here.

    Eddie would become a reverse John Mason who lost his Westminster (by Election gain) seat and then gained the equivalent Holyrood constituency on a large swing the following year.

  44. Who is Alex Eddie?

    I thought Jim Eadie was the former MSP for Southern.

  45. “Is anyone else getting the feeling that Labour may have reached rock bottom and are very slowly moving in the correct direction?”

    No.

  46. Survation poll here:

    Labour 40%
    SNP 30%
    Conservative 20%

  47. Are the Greens having any pacts ie standing down for the SNP or is it just their MSPs that work together?

    They used to have a few joint PPCs with Plaid.

  48. Yes, they’re not standing in Aberdeenshire or Highlands. Only standing in 9 seats in fact.

  49. The Survation poll is very good news for Labour if correct as it would appear to offset the unwinding of the anti-Hay vote and the Scottish Tory surge.

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