Doncaster Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8386 (20.7%)
Labour: 19840 (49.1%)
Lib Dem: 1717 (4.2%)
UKIP: 9747 (24.1%)
TUSC: 421 (1%)
Others: 309 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10093 (25%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire, South Yorkshire. Part of the Doncaster council area.

Main population centres: Doncaster, Armthorpe.

Profile: The seat is made up of the large town of Doncaster itself, a successful regional retail, communications and transport centre, and the large former mining village of Armthorpe. Doncaster`s famous racecourse, home to the St. Leger Stakes, is situated in the centre of the constituency.

Politics: While the other two Doncaster seats are dominated by mining villages and have historically been safe Labour strongholds, Doncaster itself was in the past more marginal - for many years in the 1950s it was held by Conservative MP Anthony Barber. Since 1964 though it has been held by Labour, albeit on only small majorities in good years for the Tories like 1979 and 1983. Boundary changes in 1983 pushed it out of Conservative reach, putting the mining village of Armthorpe into the seat and taking away the southern part of the affluent village of Bessacarr. At a local level Doncaster has an interesting recent history. A corruption scandal in the 1990s led to the growth of independent groups on the council and ultimately Labour`s loss of control of the council. While Labour have since regained a majority on the council, Doncaster has an elected mayor and in 2009 returned the populist English Democrat candidate Peter Davies (the father of Conservative MP Philip Davies). In 2010 the dysfunctional state of the council was such that the Secretary of State appointed a Chief Executive and appointed Commissioners to oversee the running of the council.


Current MP
ROSIE WINTERTON (Labour) Born 1958, Leicester. Educated at Danum Grammar School for Girls and Hull University. Former head of office for John Prescott. First elected as MP for Doncaster Central in 1997. Under Secretary of State at the Lord Chancellor`s Department 2001-2003, Minister of State for Health Services 2003-2007, Minister of State for Transport 2007-2008, Minister of State for Pensions 2008-2009, Minister of State for Local Government 2009-2010, Shadow Leader of the House of Commons 2010. Labour Chief Whip since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10340 (25%)
Lab: 16569 (40%)
LDem: 8795 (21%)
BNP: 1762 (4%)
Oth: 4279 (10%)
MAJ: 6229 (15%)
2005*
Con: 6489 (19%)
Lab: 17617 (51%)
LDem: 7815 (23%)
BNP: 1239 (4%)
Oth: 1191 (3%)
MAJ: 9802 (29%)
2001
Con: 8035 (24%)
Lab: 20034 (59%)
LDem: 4390 (13%)
UKIP: 926 (3%)
Oth: 517 (2%)
MAJ: 11999 (35%)
1997
Con: 9105 (21%)
Lab: 26961 (62%)
LDem: 4091 (9%)
Oth: 2013 (5%)
MAJ: 17856 (41%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ZOE METCALFE (Conservative)
ROSIE WINTERTON (Labour) See above.
JOHN BROWN (Liberal Democrat)
CHRIS HODGSON (UKIP) Born 1956, Colchester. Educated at Colchester Royal Grammar School and Sheffield City Polytechnic. Businessman.
DAVID BURNETT (English Democrat)
MEV AKRAM (TUSC) Educated at University Centre Doncaster. Tutor.
Links
Comments - 27 Responses on “Doncaster Central”
  1. Forecast for 2015

    Lab 47
    Con 22
    LD 13
    UKIP 10
    ED 3
    others 5

  2. It seems that Doncaster local elections are going to be changed to allout at the same time as mayoral elections.

    I wonder if this will be but the first of the met boroughs which has its election patterns changed.

  3. Local election votes:

    Lab 9,470
    UKIP 7,076
    Con 3,104
    LD 1,179
    Ind 796

    73% of the LD votes were from the Bessacarr & Cantley ward, unsurprisingly, since it’s the most middle-class area IIRC.

  4. UKIP came a reasonably close second throughout Doncaster in the 2014 local elections and won the Edenthorpe Ward, which I now gather is in this seat.

    It is difficult to see UKIP winning here, but they could press for second place, with a view to the long-term.

    It would be interesting to know how far labour has managed to rebuild a competent constituency party here witha reasonable level of membership, getting their problems of the 1990s behind them.

    Doncaster is a traditional Labour area, which does not appear to be well cared for by Labour party policies geared to large city centre seats and to rich funders from particular interest groups. This seat may be safe for the near future, but unless Labour takes care of its grassroots their supporters may find somewhere else to go in the longer-term, particularly if Labour loses in 2015.

    Just for the record, I think the last time a Chief Whip was defeated in a General Election was in 1910, when the Liberal Chief Whip lost his seat. I am not expecting a repeat in 2015.

  5. There has been a UKIP gain in the Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun ward:

    http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/ukip-victory-in-doncaster-by-election-1-6749238

  6. Interestingly (as per the report) the winning candidate has previously represented Labour and the Lib Dems on the council.

  7. Interestlingly the UKIP, Labour and Green (didn’t stand in May)shares all went up since the May elections, by 4.1%, 1.9% and 5.4% respectively, whilst the Tory, English Democrat and TUSC vote shares fell by 2.9%, 5.6% and 2.9% since May 2014, with ED and TUSC not standing this time. NB the Lib Dems sdidn’t stand in May or the by-election.

    With turnout only 27.5% I think that this just shows that the tory working class vote from 1979-92, which appears to have mostly just stopped voting in South and West Yorkshire after 1992, have now found their way via the BNP and English Democrats to UKIP. This doen’t deny that some alienated ex labour voters have moved to UKIP as well, but these are very much of the older generation who bemoan the lack of Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn types in todays Labour Party. Both were key parts of the anti EEC campaign in the 70s & 80s

  8. My forumla for calculating UKIP votes is to take all the votes for the BNP/ED/NF in that area. half it and add a pinch on if the area is 95%+ white British. Then add this to the 2010 UKIP vote, later, times this by four.

    That puts them at around 28% here, sounds about right. I think with that they could easily manage second, a close second at that.

  9. Labour Hold. 13,000 majority.

  10. Going by Twitter it seems Rosie Winterton is to be made a Dame in the New Year’s Honours. My source is lots of Labour MPs congratulating her (which seems a bit premature as the list isn’t out yet). This does amuse me somewhat as the other day when the Lynton Crosby knighthood was leaked Labour MPs were against political honours.

  11. Rosie Winterton has indeed been made a Dame. Quite unusual for a serving frontbencher to be given an honour I think.

  12. Unless they’ve been made attorney general or solicitor general.

  13. “In my view, Corbyn should sack Rosie Winterton at the earliest possible opportunity. .”

    Well, as luck would have it, an opportunity is coming up pretty soon

  14. Morally, I agree with you; pragmatically, sacking Dame Rosie Winterton would be a PR disaster. It would probably be seen as a move to gain the upper hand in the party’s internal power struggle, rather than an act of principle. Or at least, it would be seen that way by the opinion-forming Murdoch-owned media.

  15. I don’t actually think there will be a ‘revenge reshuffle’ at this stage. Less than four months after the last shadow cabinet reshuffle it would look very silly and probably lead to resignations and all sorts of turmoil. I expect the briefing is an attempt to make the less Corbynista elements of the shadow cabinet think they need to show a bit more loyalty to the leader to keep their jobs. It isn’t exactly the ‘new politics’ but it could work to an extent. By the end of the parliament if Corbyn’s still in post his shadow cabinet will probably have more Corbynistas in it though.

  16. The problem with filling the shadow cabinet with Corbynistas (quite apart from amplifying internal schisms) is that most Corbynistas have little-to-no frontbench experience: they are either serial backbenchers in the Corbyn/McDonnell mould or Momentum associates from the 2015 intake like Clive Lewis or Cat Smith.

  17. Sacking Dame Rosemary for accepting a poliitical honour would not be the same as disimssing her for failing to oppose Trident.

    Many ordinary voters, not just new Labour Party members, are heartily sick of the Labour-Conservative “collusion” at Westminster in favour of MPs’ vested interests (including the acceptance of baubles).

    The Corbynista minority at Westminster is so small that Corbyn has no chance for filling all the Shadow Minister positions with supporters of his faction – many of us would say thank goodness for that. But any leader needs a Chief Whip whose thinking is closely atttuned to his own (or her own).

  18. Apparently Dame Rosemary has survived Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet reshufffle.

    So much for Corbyn’s socialism.

  19. Dame Rosie Winterton has been sacked as the chief whip of the Labour Party.

  20. Rosie Winterton is standing to be a deputy speaker.

  21. I think she’d be good in the chair.

  22. Dame Rosie Winterton elected as one of the deputy speakers. Hoyle and Laing are also reelected.

  23. As expected.

    I was about to say unopposed but I see that she defeated Roberta Blackman Woods.

  24. First round was

    Hoyle 354
    Winterton 88
    Blackman 51

    Transfers from Hoyle:
    149 to Blackman
    145 to Winterton

    As they had to redistribute only Hoyle’s surplus compared to the quota, the final result was

    Winteron 180.8
    Blackman 146.36

  25. Armthorpe Ward By-election, 15.02.18 (caused by the death of a Lab Cllr, aged 71):

    Labour 1,431
    Independent 466

    Lab hold.

  26. Thanks L.O but it’s much much more revealing with the changes from last time.

  27. Ah yes, sorry.

    No UKIP (29% last time) or Cons (22% in 2017) this time.

    But to be fair it was probably one of the least interesting of the 15 by-elections, last week.

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