Corby

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24023 (42.8%)
Labour: 21611 (38.5%)
Lib Dem: 1458 (2.6%)
Green: 1374 (2.4%)
UKIP: 7708 (13.7%)
MAJORITY: 2412 (4.3%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Northamptonshire. The whole of the Corby and East Northamptonshire council areas.

Main population centres: Corby, Oundle, Thrapston.

Profile: Corby grew from a small village to become a medium-sized industrial town in the 1930s after the development of the steel industry in the area. Large numbers of workers were brought down from Scotland. After the war it became a designated newtown and again there was a large amount of Scottish immigration leading to the image of Corby as being a small island of Scottish industrialism in the middle of the English countryside - the 2001 census found almost 20% of people in Corby itself were born in Scotland. In the 1980s the steel works closed leading to massive unemployment in the area, though since then the economy has largely recovered. The constituency includes not only Corby itself but also the majority of the largely rural East Northamptonshire council, including Thrapston and the market town of Oundle, best known for its public school.

Politics: While Corby itself tends to vote Labour, the now solidly Tory East Northamptonshire makes the constituency a close marginal. It was won by "chick lit" author Louise Mensch (nee Bagshawe) at the 2010 election, but she lasted only two years before resigning her seat to move her family to the USA. The subsequent by-election was won by Labour, their first by-election gain since 1997 , but they failed to keep hold of the seat at the following general election.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in CON WIN. For full details see here.


Current MP
TOM PURSGLOVE (Conservative) Born 1988, Kettering. Educated at Sir Christopher Hatton School and Queen Mary University of London. Former Parliamentary assistant. Wellingborough councillor since 2007. First elected as MP for Corby in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22886 (42%)
Lab: 20991 (39%)
LDem: 7834 (14%)
BNP: 2525 (5%)
MAJ: 1895 (3%)
2005
Con: 19396 (40%)
Lab: 20913 (43%)
LDem: 6184 (13%)
UKIP: 1278 (3%)
Oth: 756 (2%)
MAJ: 1517 (3%)
2001
Con: 17583 (37%)
Lab: 23283 (49%)
LDem: 4751 (10%)
UKIP: 855 (2%)
Oth: 750 (2%)
MAJ: 5700 (12%)
1997
Con: 18028 (33%)
Lab: 29888 (55%)
LDem: 4045 (7%)
Oth: 640 (1%)
MAJ: 11860 (22%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TOM PURSGLOVE (Conservative) Born 1988, Kettering. Educated at Sir Christopher Hatton School and Queen Mary University of London. Parliamentary assistant. Wellingborough councillor since 2007.
ANDY SAWFORD (Labour) Born 1976, Desborough, son of Phil Sawford MP. Educated at Durham University. Chief executive of the Local Government Information Unit. Dartford councillor 1999-2003. MP for Corby 2012 by-election to 2015.
PETER HARRIS (Liberal Democrat) Newark and Sherwood councillor.
MARGOT PARKER (UKIP) Born Grantham. Former European advisor and spokesperson for the promotional products industry. Contested East Midlands region 2009 European election for Libertas, Sherwood 2010, Corby 2012 by-election for UKIP. MEP for the East Midlands since 2014.
JONATHAN HORNETT (Green) Born 1974, Bishops Stortford. Educated at Richard Hale School. Runs a gardening company. Contested Wellingborough 2010, Corby 2012 by-election.
Links
Comments - 178 Responses on “Corby”
  1. In her column today, “Raise a wee dram to end of the Union” Louise Mensch supports Alex Salmond in the Sun on Sunday. Thank God she’s gone. I doubt anyone was a worse fit with this constituency than her.

  2. No – quite abysmal. Not sure why the electors of Corby were disposed to vote for her in the first place (although she didn’t take the seat on a particularly high swing).

  3. Probably had something to do with her being the official Conservative candidate. Voters don’t pay that much attention to personalities, especially those of new candidates.

    The more interesting question is why she was selected as a candidate as her character flaws were well known.

  4. “I doubt anyone was a worse fit with this constituency than her.”

    I don’t know anything about William Powell or Phil Hope who came before her (Hope’s expenses were surely a factor in his defeat, yet Mensch only gained it on a pretty small swing). Corby has been passed between Labour the Tories over the years and was always likely to fall to the latter in 2010. Constituents were voting against Labour and probably had no idea what she was like.

  5. Runnymede – very true. I think she was one of a dozen defectors that Cameron accepted in 2007. Bagshawe, Sajid Javid, Helen Grant et al. Neil – from memory William Powell was a Heseltine Wet, but no doubt conscious of his small majority, he voted against VAT on fuel and did make an effort to watch the Corby Orange Order marches. In 2011, Mensch said they should be banned.

  6. *Rehman Chisti rather than Javid IIRC.

  7. Defectors are almost always bad news. Flaky, self-obsessed media types even more so.

  8. Yes IIRC Chishti was Labour candidate in Francis Maude’s Horsham division in 2005.

  9. Stuart Andrew, MP for Pusdey, was Labour in the past too.

  10. The Tories have selected Tom Pursglove for this seat. He’s a member of “Young Conservatives” and was elected as a Tory councillor at 18 years old in Wellingborough.

  11. I can predict Labour hanging onto this. The Tory candidate doesn’t appeal well and UKIP could shred votes from The Conservatives too. Labour might just take this.

  12. I was thinking about this seat today. I can see Labour holding it by similar margin that the Conservatives took this seat by.

  13. Lets not beat about the bush? Lab take this easily.

  14. Labour will lose the votes from left wing ethnic Scots in Corby who simply won’t vote now for anybody….resulting in Labour to having to poll more strongly in East Northamptonshire to hold on.

  15. Nonsense. The Tories would most likely have lost here even without the by-election. As it is, the bad smell of Louise Mensch and the incumbency of Sawford will linger long enough to give Labour an unusually comfortable majority here (my guess 5000 or so).

  16. After a quick appraisal for me it’s LAB, at this time, but by less than 5% margin.

  17. “Labour will lose the votes from left wing ethnic Scots in Corby who simply won’t vote now for anybody….resulting in Labour to having to poll more strongly in East Northamptonshire to hold on.”

    Lol. What I like about Dalek is that at least when he comes out with bullshit on here it is funny – especially anything with a Scottish theme.
    Not like the newer generation of bullshitters on this site who are just fuicking tedious

  18. The Tories would not have selected an inexperienced 26 year old, who’s life experience consists solely of having been a “parliamentary assistant”, if they had any realistic expectation of running Labour close. They have effectively put up a paper candidate in the knowledge they are going to be trounced.

  19. “Lol. What I like about Dalek is that at least when he comes out with bullshit on here it is funny – especially anything with a Scottish theme.
    Not like the newer generation of bullshitters on this site who are just fuicking tedious”

    I do agree with you there….though Dalek’s obsession with weird Scottish electoral theories can also be highly tedious when he doesn’t give it a rest.

  20. Dalek makes a valid point…According to the 2011 census, 7,765 (12.7%) people of Corby were born in Scotland.

    In July, Corby Scots had a mock Scottish independence with 39% backing Scots independence.

    It isn’t unreasonable to extend what is happening in Scotland now to here – that is to say, a large number of Nationalist Scottish folk will turn against LAB by abstaining or voting for another party. .

    And I am talking here of course of maybe only approx 1000 votes – but not an insignificant number of votes.

  21. Deepthroat expresses what I was trying to say. There will be some voters here of Scottish extraction sympathetic to the YES campaign who will now be disaffected by Labour over the Scottish Referendum ‘ s NO campaign. Many of these people will simply not vote…..because they will not vote Conservative or Lib Dem.

    I did not say that this would cost Labour Corby but it will reduce their lead meaning that Labour would have to work harder in East Northamptonshire to compensate.

  22. And where’s your evidence for this? I suspect what you are saying is utter tripe. Scots who are fiercely opposed to being united with England are hardly likely to be happy living in England are they.

  23. “In July, Corby Scots had a mock Scottish independence with 39% backing Scots independence.”

    Was this a proper poll or Voodoo?

  24. Ok it was based on 520 people. But people can be expected to be faithful.it was done more formally than you think- on ballot sheets and in secret.

    But DALEK’S point is Exactly the sort of point one should expect to see on this website and yet again the language becomes scatological from Mr Hemmelig when he knows he been out thought.

    I think any factor that (debatedly) might reduce a party by 2-4% in a seat where they will probably win by only 4-10% is a point worth making. And one that any tolerant amateur commentator should appreciate.

    Btw that statistic- 13% born in Scotland – will not of course include the many 2nd and 3rd and 4th generation of Scots in Corby who might think this way. Again a small number will think/act this way but it will reduce LAB and they are NOT a shoo-in here.

    HH- You seem happy to suggest freely that increased BME will help vote LAB ( for eg you did this in Westminster North) & yet you are disgusted by a suggestion – and are not willing to accept -that Scottish Nationalists will stray away from LAB – despite related evidence in Scottish seats. Are you on a wind up on this matter?

  25. “yet again the language becomes scatological from Mr Hemmelig when he knows he been out thought.”

    “it will reduce LAB and they are NOT a shoo-in here.”

    My two year old son would find it difficult to be out-thought by you and Dalek. I’ve never read such a pile of nonsense. Labour are defending a 22% majority here for Christ sake, in a national election they are very likely to win. Of course they’re a shoo in. Virtually nobody in Corby will give a flying fuck about Scottish independence (and you don’t need to give a flying fuck about something to express an opinion about it in a dodgy poll).

    How about a bet that Labour will hold Corby – £25 at evens?

  26. These theories that Corby voters are somehow more Scottish in their voting habits than anywhere else in the UK have been shown to be false before. It’s as if the Tories had never won the seat, and yet they have. So far this seat has been a totally accurate bellwether in general elections, and as long as Labour are in any way competitive in terms of national vote share they should comfortably hold on to this by-election gain.

  27. Barnaby: you are, forgiveably, forgetting the amount of Scots here and very recent events in Scotland.

    HH…Why are being a complete idiot (on this subject)?

    LABOUR ARE NOT A CERTAINTY. IF YOU BELIEVE THEY THEY ARE PLEASE OFFER ME ODDS of 100/1 against.

    DALEK said simply: “Labour will lose votes…” You then sag him off rudely without contributing intelligently and assume he is saying ‘..Labour won’t win here’.

    I have already made it abundantly clear that LAB are favourites & I expect them to hold but it will be around 5% margin. I certainly wouldn’t back against them. Although I would happily accept a £100 bet that LAB majority here will be less than 9.999%.

    And you give a 22% LAB majority without flagging up that this was in a by election with a turnout of 46%. Even my senile 105 year old grandmother would have the good sense to not rely on a great deal.

    HH says: ” Virtually nobody in Corby will give a flying fuck about Scottish independence..”.

    IMO, this is what my late grandfather (from Stepney) used to describe as being like…”a system of canal water control in the East End”.

    IT’S A LOT OF BOW LOCKS.

  28. Well…….I hesitate to enter such a frenetic debate, but I’m with most others on this one – a comfortable Labour hold at around the 10% margin (but I’m not getting into betting).

  29. Nurse!

  30. Other factors that will reduce LAB vote here

    * (More) Drift to UKIP by WWC
    * Bad performance by Miliband at leader’s TV debates
    * Possible reduced C2/D/E and younger people on electoral roll, due to the new IER

  31. I see HH has ducked out by relying on a hoary old catchphrase.

    You can get back to your box set of ‘Little Britain” now.

  32. I was posting here 8 years before you decided to grace the site with your rubbish theories, and I will be here long after you’ve buggered off again.

  33. HH – no doubt true and so it might not be the moment to remind you that you ‘resigned’ from this site a few months ago, only to reappear very soon afterwards.

    A veritable George Brown ‘unresignation’.

  34. HH is basically saying “I’ve been here longer than you. So I have the entitlement to be rude and/or dismissive..”

  35. £100 that LAB win by less than 10% margin (or do not win) in GE2015.

    HH – Do you accept or not?

  36. The automatic assumption that Miliband will perform poorly in the debates is one to which you’re entitled, but it’s a dangerous assumption. Likewise, I’d have thought that white working-class voters who are likely to desert Labour would have already have done so, in terms of voting intention shown on the doorstep & in polls. It’s more likely that more will be weaned back towards Labour as the election approaches, and the contest is seen in a national context as being between Labour & the Tories.

  37. Of course I was not saying that these three things will happen or are very likely to. Re: the Miliband performance. He is very unlikely to do better IMO than Nigel, Dave and Nick – it is much more likely he will create a poor impression than he will impress greatly and so more likely to lose, rather than gain votes.

    Really the bottom line here is – LAB are favourites in Corby& I expect them to hold but it will be around 5 % margin BUT if things do go against LAB it could be closer still. So Scottish voters abstaining from LAB is a pertinent point to make.

    OK, a bit a fun here…..Let’s imagine a party called:…”Scottish Independence Protest Party” put up a candidate in Corby & ran a sensible campaign (they could say that it’s a protest against Labour’s tactics in the Referendum) & fielded a local popular candidate.

    How many votes do you think they will get?

  38. “£100 that LAB win by less than 10% margin (or do not win) in GE2015.

    HH – Do you accept or not?”

    Of course I don’t accept. You are the one saying Labour “are not a shoo in”. And now you’re also saying you expect them to win by 10%. WTF?

  39. “HH – no doubt true and so it might not be the moment to remind you that you ‘resigned’ from this site a few months ago, only to reappear very soon afterwards.

    A veritable George Brown ‘unresignation’.”

    Not sure what right Dr John has got to tell me whether I can or can’t post here, or what this has got to do with this discussion.

    However, being compared to Gordon Brown has horrified me, so I will actually make my resignation permanent as of now (though I might be back after the election to collect my winnings from Robin Hood).

  40. When did I write that “I expect Labour to win by 10%”..?

  41. GEORGE Brown, can’t you fucking read.

  42. George Brown, not Gordon? George Brown’s “non-resignation” which i confess i had to look up on wiki occurred in 1967, as a result of devaluation….quite an interesting story…!

    these references not being picked up shows the different ages and generations who post on this site…the earlier GB’s resignation and withdrawal was a new one for me.

    from wiki
    . Chancellor of the Exchequer James Callaghan found himself in the middle, as he opposed devaluation but felt that without prompt action it was inevitable. Wilson tried to keep Brown on board, even offering to make him Chancellor should Callaghan resign, but Brown stood firm. When the Cabinet voted by 17-6 against devaluation, Brown sent a letter of resignation.[12]

    Wilson craftily sent the letter back to Brown so that he could deny having received it, and then sent George Wigg to try to talk Brown out of it. This did not prevent the news reaching the public; Wigg then changed his position and told Brown that Wilson would accept his resignation. Bizarrely this convinced Brown to stay and he accepted all of Wilson’s terms for staying in the government in a late night meeting before announcing his “un-resignation” to the press in Downing Street.

  43. I agree Peter – if HHEMELIG had even heard of George Brown he would not probably have mis read George as Gordon.

    I agree that this website has views from all ages, races, levels of intelligence, political savviness, knowledge of psephology. A fact that HHEMELIG does not seem to realise or want to be tolerant towards.

  44. DALEK: Do you see what you started? LOL

    ….I wonder if HHEMELIG, when he realises he was NOT “being compared to Gordon Brown” but to George Brown, maybe he’ll return.

    Most people might say it’s a worse thing though. .He was often “tired & emotional”.

    There is this funny (possibly apocryphal) story:

    “…During his time, and subsequently, a widely circulated but evidently false rumour had it that Brown had embarrassed himself while drunk at an official reception in South America. Brown was said to have lumbered over to a tall, elegant vision in red, and requested the honour of the next dance, only to be told, “I will not dance with you for three reasons. The first is that you are drunk. The second is that the band is not playing a waltz, but the Peruvian national anthem. The final reason is that I am the Cardinal Archbishop of Lima.”

    ————————————————————————————-

    I hope HH returns, I genuinely believe he will get missed.

  45. I can absolutely assure you that H.Hemmelig has heard of George Brown. He is generally pretty well-informed.

  46. Well, in which case he didn’t read the previous post referring to the ‘unresignation’ at all well then. The word ‘unresignation’ should have provoked him to re-read the post – it is not a word that can be readily assigned to Gordon B or to any well known Gordon Brown story. Although I didn’t know in detail the full George Brown story, that word rang a bell with me when used with the surname ‘Brown’.
    I am sorry HH has gone but I am never going to be quiet and see innocent & decent posters being rudely castigated and their reasonable thoughts turned into a hammering and even character assassination.

    I wouldn’t have bothered had it not been the case that the website is littered with such behaviour & it went hand in hand with objectionable language…. See Morley & Outwood.

    I hope he returns in the New Year but with a lighter heart, a more generous, maybe paternal spirit, and a more even tempered style of expressing himself.

  47. I quite like HH’s trenchant style full of references to equine excreta…entertaining and often entirely legitimate, as there are too many references to canal systems in the east end (another thing i learnt on this site) generally.

  48. What donkey crap! There’s only ever been one, single, solitary reference “…to canal systems in the East End” on this website.

  49. People of Scottish extraction did not settle in Corby and leave Scotland by preference but rather than necessity.

    People moved to Corby for employment escaping the large scale unemployment in Glasgow and Lanarkshire.

  50. Sorry Dalek..what are you driving at?

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