Blyth Valley

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8346 (21.7%)
Labour: 17813 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 2265 (5.9%)
Green: 1453 (3.8%)
UKIP: 8584 (22.3%)
MAJORITY: 9229 (24%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Northumberland. Part of the Northumberland council area.

Main population centres: Blyth, Cramlington, Seaton Delaval.

Profile: Consists of the whole of the former borough of Blyth, now subsumed into the Northumberland unitary authority. Blyth is an industrial town, the largest town in Northumberland. It was formerly dominated by the mining and shipbuilding industries, both now gone, and remains a working port. The other major population centre is Cramlington, a post-war newtown that acts as a dormitory town for Newcastle, though it also has significant pharmaceutical industry of its own.

Politics: A safe Labour seat. Blyth has been held by the Labour party since its creation in 1950, with the brief exception of the period between the two 1974 elections when it was won by its deselected Labour MP, Eddie Milne, standing as an Independent. Milne was defeated at the October 74 election by John Ryman, who would in turn also resign the Labour whip and sit as an independent from 1986-1987. His sucessor, Ronnie Campbell, has so far managed to remain within the Labour party.

Current MP
RONNIE CAMPBELL (Labour) Born 1943, Tynemouth. Educated at Blyth Ridley County High School. Former miner. Blyth Valley councillor from 1969. First elected as MP for Blyth Valley in 1987.
Past Results
Con: 6412 (17%)
Lab: 17156 (44%)
LDem: 10488 (27%)
BNP: 1699 (4%)
Oth: 2811 (7%)
MAJ: 6668 (17%)
Con: 4982 (14%)
Lab: 19659 (55%)
LDem: 11132 (31%)
MAJ: 8527 (24%)
Con: 5484 (16%)
Lab: 20627 (60%)
LDem: 8439 (24%)
MAJ: 12188 (35%)
Con: 5666 (13%)
Lab: 27276 (64%)
LDem: 9540 (22%)
MAJ: 17736 (42%)

2015 Candidates
GREG MUNRO (Conservative)
RONNIE CAMPBELL (Labour) See above.
PHILIP LATHAM (Liberal Democrat)
Comments - 72 Responses on “Blyth Valley”
  1. The tories got their selections in these types of seats spot on – opting for solid local candidates over the know it all posh twerps Tory local associations have a history of favouring, and they delivered for Boris, big time

  2. Through they are some in the gains that are less well suited.

    If the tories promote northern sounding mp’s we might get Nadine Dories in the cabinet.

  3. As long as accents are genuine I don’t mind.

    We’ve had a Cabinet with: fake Scouse accent (Esther), fake odd/posh accent (Jake Berry) and tbf there were already plenty of Northerners from this region such as Andrew Percy.

    BM11 – indeed. I think the Anglesey (dolphin trainer) one admitted she campaigned for just 10 days and is from Kent. Wonder if she’ll now learn Welsh?

  4. TJ: absolutely. There was an article in the Times on the so-called “Boris babies” (the youngest members of the new Tory intake), and they seem refreshingly like normal people.

    I must say, as I approach the end of my twenties, I find it a little disconcerting that ther are now so many MPs younger than I am.

  5. The Dolphin Trainer is one who uses an eccentric former occupation to make herself more interesting – her main former occupation is Maths teacher.

  6. “As long as accents are genuine I don’t mind.”

    And it is perfectly possible to have a regional accent and still be well spoken. You couldn’t accuse Harold Wilson or William Hague of sounding chavvy despite their strong accent.

    By contrast, many of the supposed front runners in Labour’s leadership election fall down on this front. Rebecca Wrong Daily and Angela Rayner both sound like they are overacting for a Corrie audition. Richard Burgon looks and sounds like a drag queen doing an impression of Vera Duckworth. Jess Phillips is like a Brummie version of Waynetta Slob. None of them will trouble Boris.

  7. Apparently the Tories fear Philips the most out of them.

  8. Because she has personalty and that is more unpredictable.

  9. The Lib Dems have just showed that electing a lightweight 30something as leader just because they are a woman is not a strategy for electoral success.

    The most successful female political leaders do not keep harping on about how great it is that they are a female political leader. If you’d rather I didn’t mention Thatcher, think how little Sturgeon brings her sex into everything. And she’s the most effective opposition politician right now bar none.

    Labour look set to fall into the trap which Swinson and to a lesser extent May fell into. They should choose their leader on merit alone.

  10. Equally most think the next Labour leader is just some one to get Labour back to a position where a government changing swing is plausible the following election.

  11. They need a greybeard Michael Howard type leader for 2-3 years to get the party back on the right track, giving the young pretenders a chance to grow and shine under his/her leadership rather than them just jumping right in at the deep end. Harman would be an OK choice. He/she could step down in say 2022 giving a new younger leader enough run-up to the next GE.

  12. That seems as unlikely as No Deal not happening at the end of next year (Boris won’t extend even with 3 1/2 to 4 years till the next general election after any transition extension date.)

  13. Given the state of the Labour party today yes it is extremely unlikely.

    On Brexit, Boris now has the space that he needs. As long as we are now seen to be officially out on 31st Jan he will be able to fudge the details and optics of the transition a bit without the non-politically obsessed electorate paying much attention. What will get widespread attention is any negative economic effects hence I expect the government to prioritise minimising that over hard Leave ideology. Boris also knows his feet will be held to the fire over new hospitals, more police and investing in the north.

  14. Be interesting what infrastructure can be built in the next five years in the new Tory seats other than hospitals. The reopening of the railway to Blyth is planned but concerns about the costing figures given.

    The new boundaries here mean it will not be an easy tory hold – the new seat would have been held by labour probably by 1-2k (Estimated 16k majority in 2017.)

  15. And also a lot of new infrastructure is unpopular in a NIMBY sense, especially with older/retired people who are the core of Boris’s vote.

    But given the Tories’ minimal representation in London (both in parliament and at GLA/mayoral level) it probably makes sense for them to engineer a shift in spending from London to the north which Labour would really struggle to argue against, given their rhetoric in recent years. Beyond Crossrail I’m not going to bank on many new projects happening in London over the next decade.

  16. North East council results beginning to trickle in now, one that caught my eye was the South Blyth ward, which the Tories have taken. This was the one that was a dead heat four years ago, where the drawing of lots cost the Tories overall control of Northumberland County Council.

  17. More generally Northumberland is looking like a total bloodbath. Huge swings to the Tories.

    Labour is collapsing, and the 2017 baseline was pretty low to begin with. It’s hard to reconcile this with recent national polling which put Labour anywhere between “no worse than 2019” and level pegging with the Tories. Unless the realignment is gathering pace, in which case we should be seeing the Tories suffer in the south… we will have to wait later for those results.

  18. Looks like Conservatives should be on course to win their first EVER majority control of Northumberland council.

  19. Even though they’ve lost seats there to the Greens?

  20. Seems they’re doing significantly worse in the rural wards, but it looks like they’ve gained enough ground in the Blyth Valley area that they have that wiggle room. Remember they only need a net gain of 1 for a majority.

    Overall it’s a very diverse local authority though, you might expect some slightly funny patterns. Possibly some local shenanigans I don’t know about.

  21. So to confirm, the Tories did make a net gain of exactly one ward and have the majority that eluded them last time. The crucial ward decided by just one vote! Gains in Brexity Blyth offset by losses in remainy Hexham. On overall vote share Labour were actually up by more than the Tories here, but FPTP is a fickle beast.

  22. It’s good to be back after a few years away. Here is the Blyth Valley result with % change from 2017:

    Con 52.0 (+12.3)
    Lab 39.8 (+0.2)

    So a bigger Con lead (12.3%) than in the 2019 general election (1.7%).

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