Blackley & Broughton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5581 (15%)
Labour: 22982 (61.9%)
Lib Dem: 874 (2.4%)
Green: 1567 (4.2%)
UKIP: 6108 (16.5%)
MAJORITY: 16874 (45.5%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of Manchester council area and two wards from Salford.

Main population centres: Blackley, Broughton, Harpurhey, Cheetham Hill.

Profile: A cross-border seat created in 2010, based on the old Manchester Blackley seat joined to two Salford wards. This is inner-city Manchester, cramped terraces, council estates and deprivation: Harpurhey in this seat was identified as the most deprived area in the country in 2004, although more recently it has seen some regeneration work. It is a multicultural area, originally much of the seat, especially Cheetham, was home to a large Jewish community though it has tended to move westwards towards areas like Higher Crumpsall and Broughton Park, a wealthy pocket of large detached houses in this otherwise deprived seat. Cheetham and Crumpsall meanwhile are now home to a significant Muslim population, and there are also significant Irish, West Indian, Sikh and Polish communities. To the south the seat includes Strangeways prison (now officially HMP Manchester), it also includes two large urban parks, Heaton Park and Boggart Hole Clough.

Politics: Back in the 1950s Manchester Blackley was regarded as a weathervane seat, but it is hard to imagine now. This is solid inner-city Labour territory.


Current MP
GRAHAM STRINGER (Labour) Born 1950, Manchester. Educated at Moston Brook High School and Sheffield University. Former analytical chemist. Manchester councillor 1979-1996, Leader of Manchester council 1984-1996.First elected as MP for Manchester Blackley in 1997. PPS 1999-2001. Government whip 2001-2002. Following the loss of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election in 2008 he was the first Labour MP to call for Gordon Brown`s resignation.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6260 (18%)
Lab: 18563 (54%)
LDem: 4861 (14%)
BNP: 2469 (7%)
Oth: 2051 (6%)
MAJ: 12303 (36%)
2005*
Con: 3690 (13%)
Lab: 17187 (62%)
LDem: 5160 (19%)
UKIP: 1554 (6%)
MAJ: 12027 (44%)
2001
Con: 3821 (14%)
Lab: 18285 (69%)
LDem: 3015 (11%)
Oth: 1402 (5%)
MAJ: 14464 (55%)
1997
Con: 5454 (15%)
Lab: 25042 (70%)
LDem: 3937 (11%)
MAJ: 19588 (55%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Manchester, Blackley

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MICHELLE TANFIELD-JOHNSON (Conservative)
GRAHAM STRINGER (Labour) See above.
RICHARD GADSDEN (Liberal Democrat) Contested Worsley and Eccles South 2010.
MARTIN POWER (UKIP)
DAVID JONES (Green)
Links
Comments - 35 Responses on “Blackley & Broughton”
  1. 2012 council results for this constituency. Be aware that whilst 5 of the 7 wards are for Manchester, 2 are for Salford.

    Labour: 13,761 (68.8%)
    Conservatives: 1,872 (9.4%)
    UKIP: 1,248 (6.3%)
    Independent: 1,121 (5.6%)
    Greens: 995 (5%)
    Liberal Democrats: 781 (3.9%)
    BNP: 221 (1.1%)

    Total votes: 19,999

    Compared to 2010 council elections here:

    Labour: +13.6%
    Conservatives: -9.6%
    Liberal Democrats: -9.9%
    BNP: -5.8%
    Respect: -3.2%
    UKIP: +5.2%
    Greens: +4.2%

    Swing from Con to Lab: 11.6%

  2. Whilst the 2012 council elections were held in the midst of a bad news cycle for the Tories, and I fully expect their general election performance to be an improvement on these figures, these results in Blackley and Broughton follow a trend in the other Manchester seats I’ve calculated – they’re being reduced to a complete non-factor in Manchester politics, council and parliamentary wise. Way things look, they’re going to have to watch out for UKIP taking over than making any real progress.

    For the Liberal Democrats, a little more upbeat. They seem to have established themselves as a firm second in many places, though they’re still miles off Labour, and obviously here they’re well off that mark. The Greens will be a threat to them as well.

    Manchester looks well on its way to becoming effectively a one-party city. An unfathomably strong Labour stronghold.

  3. My grandma (and numerous other relatives) used to live in this seat. Her final vote was for Labour in Crumpsall ward in 1984, when the winning candidate was (for what I believe was the very first time) Richard Leese. Those days Crumpsall was a marginal ward with the Tories very close behind, now it’s one of the very safest Labour wards in the whole of the city, which really is saying quite a lot. Most of my other family members lived (in one or 2 cases still live) in the Salford wards within the constituency, although none of them are or were ultra-Orthodox Jews – just ordinary Orthodox synagogue-attenders.

  4. But don’t forger that much of “Manchester”, including a large chunk of the Post-Town (and the United Football Ground), are in the Tory flagship of Trafford.

  5. I once went for a walk around Crumpsall/Heaton Park/Prestwich. Some of Crumpsall seemed nice but some clearly shaded into Cheetham and was less salubrious.

    Prestwich really did seem like the Manchester equivalent of Hendon, not only very Jewish but also big Catholic and growing Asian communities and even a Police Training Centre (Sedgley Park) to boot!

  6. RR- I’m talking about Manchester here, not Greater Manchester.

  7. I took the tram from Manchester City Centre to Bury which goes through this area and the Jewish presence was quite noticeable although not overwhelmingly so.

  8. “RR- I’m talking about Manchester here, not Greater Manchester.”

    Ah, but when most people talk of “London” they mean Greater London (including many areas still postally “Surrey”, “Middx”., “Essex”, “Kent” etc.) , rather than just the Square Mile or even the London Postal Area. Bojo’s title is the “Mayor of London”, not the “Mayor of Greater London.” Surely the equivalent applies to Greater Manchester?

    Especially when the City Council covers such a small part of the conurbation and much of the posttown covers communities outside it?

  9. I’m a little unsure why we’re even having this debate. I made the point that Manchester is becoming a one-party city, which it most clearly is right now. Greater Manchester is of course abit more mixed.

  10. I made a very similar point during the recent referendums on elected mayors and most people on here vehemently disagreed with me.

    It seems the dominant view both here and in the country at large is “London is different”, with much less petty postcode rivalry than in the second tier metropolitan areas….which I do think is a great pity. Having an elected mayor is one of the main reasons that London’s economy has powered ahead of the smaller cities in the past decade, and most especially since the financial crisis.

  11. My reply was to RR

  12. Yeah, I’m big on elected mayors myself, but I often find myself in a minority on that as well.

  13. a lot of city and large town boundaries need looking at .
    take gedling the urban part of it should have joined nottingham council years ago along with bits of rush and Broxtowe .

  14. I am actually not big on Elected Mayors. The political help that London has got did not start with the Mayoralty. London has long been given special treatment by politicians. Its buses were never deregulated into the free-for-all that happened in the rest of the country in 1986. The tube was never privatised unlike the trains. Flagship Conservative Councils in Central London were assisted with delivering a nil Community Charge in 1990. A Minister for London was established.

    London’s location in the prosperous South East (and remember much of the rest of the South East, such as the Thames Valley and North Hampshire is also doing pretty well at the moment), and its longstanding reliance on the private, rather than the public, sector have also helped it.

    Interestingly Northern Cities with a stronger Private Sector (such as York) have been noted as being more resilient than some bigger counterparts.

  15. The part of Trafford which is ‘Manchester’ is the Labour end, though. The Tory suburbs definitely think of themselves as Cheshire!

  16. I think we all know why Manchester is the awkward shape it is. Labour wanted a safe city fixed for ever, and it got one.

  17. Except the Redcliffe-Maud recommendations had a Manchester that included Salford and Old Trafford… it was the Heath government that changed the plans to hive them off elsewhere in the 1974 reorganisation…

  18. I went to Trafford not so long ago to a work meeting with Kellogs

    I have to say it struck me as an absolute dump – I thought it would be relatively nice

    I also went to Liverpool about a month ago – and that was considerably better than i expected – although I spent nearly all my time there in the centre so I suppose it was to be expected

    Are there any nice parts in manchester proper?

  19. There are nice areas in Didsbury and a few streets in Chorlton, but all in all there is no-where in Manchester proper anywhere near as nice as many other cities (for example, round Mossley Hill, Woolton and parts of Sefton Park in Liverpool; Clifton, Henleaze etc. in Bristol ). It’s a shame really as you really do have to move out of the city to live anywhere particularly attractive and nice.

    Even parts of Chorlton are quite nasty, especially as it borders Whalley Range. Probably some of the nicest places to live are actually in the city centre these days.

  20. Thank you Anthony, consider my wrist slapped.

  21. “I went to Trafford not so long ago to a work meeting with Kellogs

    I have to say it struck me as an absolute dump – I thought it would be relatively nice”

    That sliver of Trafford is just a mile from Manchester City Centre and that end of the Borough is essentially part of Manchester’s Inner City. Like the City Council areas it borders, it is solidly Labour, and in the case of Stretford (slightly further out) getting more so.

    However, the Borough changes radically after Stretford. Solidly suburban in Flixton, Dayhulme and Sale, prosperous in Altrincham, and downright rich in Hale and Bowdon. Only the isolated Partington estate, that serves ICI Carrington is the real exception at the western end.

  22. I remember going to Cheadlehulme – even more further out than altricham i think – when i was young and being struck by how leafy and surburban it was – I was expecting dis-used cotton mills and the like

    But the part I went to recently – right next to the cricket ground – was far more in synch with the urban, inner-city, post-industrial flavour that has to some extent come to characterise northern cities such as Manchester

    Like Liverpool, the city centre was full of swanky expensive-looking flats and i wonder whether that will come to affect the vote in manchester central – currently one of labour’s safest seats in england

  23. Doktorb is talking nonsense – the odd delineation between Manchester & its neighbours such as Salford dates back to before our living memory, and easily predates the time when there even was a Labour Party as we know it, certainly the time when Labour enjoyed a majority on Manchester Council. It is true that most of what became the Manchester Wythenshawe constituency was added much later, but that was a marginal seat at the time & only became the safe Labour area it now is after it was added to the Manchester municipality.

  24. What I think for 2015 then:

    Lab 60
    UKIP 17
    Con 11
    LD 5
    Others 7

    Seems plausible to me because UKIP organisation and/or momentum in Salford now looks strong to me and they’re starting to make inroads into the working class vote in Manchester.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/jan/13/1

    Inclined to agree with Stringer here but things are never black and white!

  25. I don’t believe for a minute that the UKIP vote will be as high as 17% – I know the arguments but for that level of support based on the ‘Salford end’ of the seat, it would mean Broughton voting UKIP with a big majority on a massive turnout – and it won’t.
    The rest of the wards are not UKIP-friendly, unless you think all the BNP voters wil switch across.
    The best I think they can get, on available evidence, is 7-8%.

  26. Labour Hold. 13,000 majority.

  27. 40 minute wait reported in Manchester Evening News at Park Inn Hotel polling station in Cheetham Hill ward.

  28. Paul Rose, Labour MP for Manchester Blackley from 1964 to 1979, has died aged 79. As it happens l used to know him – his mother was an important formative influence on my father, and his elder brother remains a close family friend.

  29. Wasn’t he the Baby of the House in 1964?

  30. Any sign of the Lib Dems getting excited yet?

  31. It’s still amusing reading back over old comments on here eg Catholicleft stating above that he:

    “didn’t believe for a minute” that UKIP could manage 17% here (A Brown’s prediction) and that 7-8% is their upper limit.

    UKIP then of course polled 17% here!

  32. Prof Curtice:

    “Yes. we have a sample of about 40 wards where the Jewish population is over 4% according to the Census. In Barnet, Bury and so on. In these wards the Labour vote is down by 4% or more in some cases.

    It’s pretty difficult to avoid the conclusion hat the Labour Party performed less well in these ‘Jewish wards.”

    That’s certainly true in the North West.

    Kersal in Salford being the most Jewish ward which Labour lost again, but even others were affected:

    Childwall, Lpool 12% Jewish. LD Gain from Lab (and unexpectedly on a big swing).

    Woolton, Lpool 5% Jewish. LD Gain from Lab.

  33. A NW Counter Terror Command source has told the Manchester Evening News that they have foiled an imminent plot.

    2 men have been arrested on terrorism offences in Whitefield after several suspicious items were found.

    Another raid is currently ongoing, but the media have been asked not to report the location.

    Park Life is due to take place this weekend at Heaton Park, but police have refused to confirm whether this was the intended target.

  34. Lab Cllr & Head of the city’s Finances, Cllr Carl Ollerhead, has been suspended by the Party, following revelations of historic criminal offences.

    I understand it is alleged that he groomed and raped a teenager.

  35. It’s little wonder that this blog is dying with petty tit bits of ‘news’ like the one above, especially when posted en masse. No one here’s interested mate, apart from you.

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