Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10355 (19.8%)
Labour: 14227 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 855 (1.6%)
SNP: 25492 (48.8%)
UKIP: 1280 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 11265 (21.6%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012. First elected as MP for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11721 (26%)
Lab: 21632 (47%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJ: 9911 (22%)
2005
Con: 10436 (23%)
Lab: 20433 (45%)
LDem: 6341 (14%)
SNP: 5932 (13%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 9997 (22%)
2001*
Con: 7318 (18%)
Lab: 22174 (55%)
LDem: 2932 (7%)
SNP: 6258 (16%)
Oth: 1425 (4%)
MAJ: 14856 (37%)
1997
Con: 8336 (17%)
Lab: 29398 (60%)
LDem: 2613 (5%)
SNP: 8190 (17%)
Oth: 634 (1%)
MAJ: 21062 (43%)

2015 Candidates
LEE LYONS (Conservative) Artist manager, consultant and event organiser.
SANDRA OSBORNE (Labour) Born 1956, Paisley. Educated at Camphill Secondary School and Jordanhill College. Counsellor. Former Kyle and Carrick councillor, former South Ayrshire councillor. MP for Ayr 1997 to 2015. PPS to Helen Liddell 2002-2003. Resigned as a PPS over the war in Iraq.
RICHARD BRODIE (Liberal Democrat)
JOSEPH ADAM-SMITH (UKIP)
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012.
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Comments - 442 Responses on “Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock”
  1. I’d suggest that it’s kind of unfair to say Thomson is one of the worst while the allegations remain unresolved. If she’s guilty, then fine, she should be replaced. If not, and the whip is restored, then you can start to see whether she’s any good or not. The SNP obviously originally thought she had some talent as she was given a front-bench role.

    Anyway, nobody is as bad as McGarry, surely.

  2. That’s true, though I’ve heard some questionable things about Thomson from those I know in Edinburgh. Regardless, McGarry is the worst MP in Scotland. I am very unsatisfied with Corri Wilson too.

  3. Wasn’t McGarry said to be one of the “rising stars” in the SNP’s ranks by Nicola Sturgeon?

  4. It appears that Corri Wilson has not been paying money to her own company. You can see what all of her claims are for if you are interested enough.

    http://www.mpsexpenses.info/#!/mp/690

    Interestingly, her expenses were very high for the first 5-6 months, but recently seem to have settled down to a pattern where her claims are steadily somewhat above average. Which is what you’d expect from an MP representing a Scottish seat who needs to pay for London accommodation.

    On the wider issue, I’m genuinely interested in how you think it’s possible to represent a seat that’s far from Westminster to the best of your ability without running up pretty high expenses. Assume you aren’t lucky enough to be independently wealthy, have to rent office space commercially in the constituency and don’t have anywhere to stay in London, so you have to pay for that through expenses too.

  5. “On the wider issue, I’m genuinely interested in how you think it’s possible to represent a seat that’s far from Westminster to the best of your ability without running up pretty high expenses. Assume you aren’t lucky enough to be independently wealthy, have to rent office space commercially in the constituency and don’t have anywhere to stay in London, so you have to pay for that through expenses too.”

    Yes £2000-3000 above average is just ‘great’…

    I can understand higher than average costs in Scotland, though the same should be applicable for the north of England and Northern Ireland in particular (more limited transport options). My problem is the high expense claims in urban constituencies in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh which should, in theory, be cheaper to represent that in a large rural constituency with poorer transport links to London, such as Argyll & Bute or Ross, Skye & Lochaber.

  6. And yet the costs in Northern Ireland for MP’s travelling to Parliament and paying for private accommodation in London are actually significantly lower than in Scotland (even weighing in ‘start-up’ costs)…

  7. I’d imagine the higher costs of renting an office in some urban areas would largely balance out the additional transport costs of a big rural seat. An office in Thurso ought to be significantly cheaper than one in Edinburgh, for example.

  8. It is still ridiculous. Property prices are much higher in Aberdeen for example, and Callum McCaig (Aberdeen South) had relatively low expenses on the Scottish average.

  9. I do think that the numbers don’t tell you much that’s meaningful. Are MP X’s numbers low because he’s lazy and doesn’t do as much for his constituency as he might, or because he’s zealous about getting the best deal possible for the taxpayer? Who knows, really, but it ends up just being another thing that makes the public cynical about politicians, and usually about a relatively trivial amount of money. If the same amount of energy was spent scrutinising expenditure on Trident, Hinckley Point, HS2 or whatever your big-ticker project of choice is, we’d be much better off.

    By all means scrutinise the claims as vigorously as you like, and prosecute anyone who’s trying to cheat the system. Change the rules if there are still ways that MPs can enrich themselves through legal claims. From a quick scan of the idiot’s guide to parliamentary expenses the rules are not too bad nowadays, and certainly a lot more stringent than they were when I worked for an MP. Once we have a set of rules people are happy with, we’d be much better off focusing our energies on something worthwhile.

    I

  10. It would be very interesting to see how the vote would go if the Boundary Commission were to resurrect the old Ayr constituency (boundaries based in Ayr, Prestwick, Troon and Kyle – with it’s southern boundaries marked by the River Doon). This would be similar to the existing Ayr constituency in the Scottish Parliament, with the addition of the rural district of Kyle to the east (which is more hospitable territory for the SNP).

    Notional for the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum
    NO 60%
    YES 40%

    Notional for the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary election:
    Conservative – 42%
    Scottish National – 42%
    Labour – 14%
    Liberal Democrat – 2%

  11. No it is a brand new Ayr constituency fitting within the quota, with different boundaries from the 1983-1997/1997-2005 Ayr constituencies (whose electorates are too low to be used within the Sixth Review).

    It would cover the current Ayr constituency at the Scottish Parliament plus the rural district of Kyle in the east (which, as I’ve said, is a better area for the SNP/worse for the Tories).

    Map here: https://i.imgur.com/RC4RXGg.png

    Pink – boundaries of the South Ayrshire council area
    Red – boundaries of the 1983-1997 Ayr constituency
    Black – boundaries of the proposed 2020- Ayr constituency

  12. For the record: the 1983-1997 Ayr constituency is very similar to the current Ayr constituency at the Scottish Parliament, I would expect a No vote of around 61% here in 2014 (same as the current Ayr constituency in the Scottish Parliament), with a very similar vote in the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary election (the Conservatives up slightly, the SNP down slightly).

    The 1997-2005 Ayr constituency was a complete, gerrymandered mess.

  13. I would really like another Ayr/Kyle constituency, South Ayrshire not so much.

    The best boundaries for the Conservatives would be a constituency based in Ayr South, Carrick and Galloway, with a second based in Dumfries.

  14. Yes but I was referring to the boundaries south-west.

  15. http://linkis.com/order-order.com/2016/uFn9n

    So that’s why Corri’s expenses are so high.

  16. Notionals for the proposed Ayr and Carrick constituency.

    2015 UK general election:
    SNP 45.0%
    CON 28.5%
    LAB 23.5%
    OTH 3.0%

    2016 Scottish Parliament election:
    SNP 42.5%
    CON 40.5%
    LAB 15.0%
    LIB 2.0%

  17. The initial proposals of the Scottish Boundary Commission are out. Under these proposals it appears as though the Conservatives would only really be competitive in 3-4 constituencies in Scotland, those being:
    • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    • Dumfries and Galloway
    • Clydesdale and Eskdale
    • Ayr and Carrick

  18. If 2016 is anything to go by then Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk should be a safe gain for the Conservatives, Clydesdale and Eskdale a more marginal (though relatively easy?) Conservative hold.

    Ayr & Carrick and Dumfries & Galloway will be the main battlegrounds for the SNP and Tories!

  19. That is assuming that those boundaries won’t change- and I honestly don’t believe they will.

    The boundaries in Ayrshire and Renfrewshire are just fantastic, I really can’t fault the boundary commission here. I’m also a fan of the boundaries in Dumfries and Galloway. I would like to see Galashiels move in with Midlothian, keeping Peebles in with the rest of the Borders though I’m not especially fussy.

  20. I believe that the vote went as follows in the old 1999-2007 South Ayrshire electoral wards at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election:

    SCOTTISH NATIONAL (16):-
    * Annbank, Mossblown and St Quivox
    * Ayr Belmont
    * Ayr Central
    * Ayr Craigie
    * Ayr Forehill
    * Ayr Lochside
    * Ayr Newton
    * Ayr Whitletts
    * Girvan Glendoune
    * North Carrick and Maybole East
    * North Carrick and Maybole West
    * Prestwick St. Nicholas’
    * Prestwick Toll
    * South Carrick
    * Tarbolton, Symington, Craigie
    * Troon West

    CONSERVATIVE (14):-
    * Ayr Doonfoot and Seafield
    * Ayr Fort
    * Ayr Masonhill
    * Ayr Old Belmont
    * Ayr Rozelle
    * Coylton and Minishant
    * Dundonald and Loans
    * Girvan Ailsa
    * Prestwick Kingscase
    * Prestwick St. Cuthbert’s and Monkton
    * Prestwick St. Ninian’s
    * Troon East
    * Troon North
    * Troon South

  21. And under 28 FPTP wards in South Ayrshire for 2016:

    SCOTTISH NATIONAL (14):-
    * Ayr Belmont
    * Ayr Central
    * Ayr Craigie and Dalmilling
    * Ayr Forehill
    * Ayr Fort
    * Ayr Newton
    * Ayr Wallacetown and Whitletts
    * Girvan Glendoune
    * Maybole
    * Monkton and Tarbolton
    * North Carrick
    * Prestwick Toll
    * South Carrick
    * Troon West

    CONSERVATIVE (14):-
    * Ayr Alloway
    * Ayr Doonfoot and Seafield
    * Ayr Masonhill and Holmston
    * Ayr Old Belmont
    * Coylebank
    * Dundonald and Loans
    * Girvan Ailsa
    * Monkton and Symington
    * New Prestwick
    * Prestwick East
    * Prestwick West
    * Troon East
    * Troon North
    * Troon South

  22. “Monkton and Tarbolton” should be “Mossblown and Tarbolton”!

  23. Revised South Ayrshire Council prediction:
    Troon 2 Con 1 SNP 1 Lab
    Prestwick 2 Con 1 SNP 1 Lab
    Ayr North 2 SNP 1 Con 1 Lab
    Ayr East 1 SNP 1 Con 1 Lab
    Ayr West 3 Con 1 SNP
    Kyle 1 SNP 1 Con 1 Lab
    Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton 1 SNP 1 Con 1 Ind
    Girvan and South Carrick 1 SNP 1 Con 1 Ind

    TOTAL: 12 CON (+3) 9 SNP (=) 5 LAB (-4) 2 IND (=)

    Pretty content with that. The Independent councillor in North Carrick tends to attract a lot of votes from Labour and my inkling is that Conservative transfers put him favourite here over Labour. The Independent in Girvan and South Carrick enjoys a massive personal vote across the spectrum, can’t see him losing there tbh.

  24. Fun statistic here: among the top 5 most % Church of Scotland constituencies in the Scottish Parliament 3 are represented by Conservative MSP’s and 2 by SNP MSP’s. Among the top 10, 5 are SNP, 4 Conservative and 1 Liberal Democrat.

    1. Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley [SNP] – 45.0%
    2. Clydesdale [SNP] – 44.6%
    3. Dumfriesshire [CON] – 43.2%
    4. Galloway and West Dumfries [CON] – 42.8%
    5. Ayr [CON] – 42.7%
    6. Argyll and Bute [SNP] – 42.7%
    7. Na h-Eileanan an Iar [SNP] – 42.5%
    8. Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire [CON] – 40.9%
    9. Angus North and Mearns [SNP] – 40.6%
    10. Orkney Islands [LIB] – 40.4%

    Most of the Conservatives’ constituency seats fall within the top 10 most Church of Scotland list, comparing to all of their constituencies from 2011.

    7 out of 10 constituencies on the list had a No vote at the independence referendum exceeding 60% of the vote (Argyll & Bute, Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley and Na n-Eileanan Iar having No votes between 50-60%).

  25. 2016 notional for the 1983-1997 Ayr constituency:

    Con 44.0%
    SNP 40.5%
    Lab 13.5%
    Lib 2.0%

  26. So I’ve been pouring over the numbers for East Ayrshire and they just don’t seem to fit.

    On a very sketchy first draft based on certain information provided to me by a reliable source the No campaign should have managed around the following for wards located in Cumnock and Doon Valley:
    * Cumnock/New Cumnock 56% NO
    * Ballochmyle 55% NO
    * Doon Valley 51% NO

    Now it’s important to note that the Cumnock and Doon Valley region is a very deprived, sparsely populated area made up of former coal-mining villages which have traditionally been staunchly loyal to the Labour Party: in theory this area should have been more inclined towards Scottish independence – and yet that just doesn’t fit in with the results of the 2015 UK general election for the Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock constituency, the results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election for the Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley constituency and sample data from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum…

    So if these figures are correct then Labour should’ve come behind the SNP in the Cumnock/New Cumnock and Ballochmyle wards by roughly 5% of the vote in 2016 which would mean that they are likely to poll ahead there in 2017, with the Conservatives probably taking a councillor in both Cumnock and Ballochmyle.

  27. My complete Scottish independence referendum notionals are available from here: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9192/scottish-independence-referendum-2014-results

    They are broken down by UK Parliament constituency, Scottish Parliament constituency and electoral ward 🙂

  28. Here is a list of ‘large’ towns in Scotland ranked in terms of population where a unionist party may well poll ahead of the SNP in 2020:
    1) Ayr = 47,190 (Conservative)
    2) Dumfries = 33,280 (Conservative)
    3) Bearsden = 27,340 (Conservative or Liberal Democrat)
    4) Newton Mearns = 24,650 (Conservative)
    5) St. Andrews = 16,800 (Liberal Democrat)

    With regards to the boundaries in Ayr & Carrick if the Boundary Commission move around a few villages as I suspect they might the constituency would become a notional Conservative constituency at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, which would make a Conservative gain in the area very likely assuming that the Conservatives sustain their current position in the opinion polls.

  29. I’ve decided to, yet again, perfect my Scottish independence referendum figures for my home county of South Ayrshire, this time focusing more on individual settlements.

    My figures imply that on the new ward boundaries the vote went as follows in 2014:
    • Ayr West – 73% NO
    • Troon – 65% NO
    • Prestwick – 63% NO
    • Ayr East – 57% NO
    • Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton – 54% NO
    • Kyle – 53% NO
    • Girvan and South Carrick – 51% NO
    • Ayr North – 56% YES

    I believe that the Conservatives will end up topping the poll in the Ayr West, Troon, Prestwick and Ayr East wards in this May’s local council election – and have a chance of polling first in Girvan & South Carrick, Kyle and Maybole, North Carrick & Coylton depending on how well or otherwise the SNP does nationally.

    My figures imply that the following settlements voted Conservative in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election:
    • Loans – 73% NO
    • Troon – 65% NO
    • Prestwick – 63% NO
    • North West Carrick (Crosshill, Kirkmichael, Minishant and Straiton) – 63% NO
    • Coylton – 61% NO
    • Monkton – 60% NO

    On the basis of current opinion polling the following settlements are on track to vote Conservative in this May’s local council election and at the next UK general election:
    • Ayr – 58% NO
    • Dundonald – 57% NO
    • Symington – 57% NO
    • Dunure – 56% NO
    • Maidens and Turnberry – 56% NO
    • South Carrick (Ballantrae, Barr, Barrhill, Colmonell, Pinwherry and Pinmore) – 56% NO

    I believe that Dailly, Old Dailly and Kirkoswald voted against independence by 50% of the vote, however these villages should vote SNP for the foreseeable future.

    That leaves the following settlements as having voted Yes to independence in 2014:
    • Annbank – 52% YES
    • Girvan – 52% YES
    • Tarbolton – 52% YES
    • Mossblown – 54% YES
    • Maybole – 55% YES

  30. A few observations I also wanted to mention regarding the upcoming council election:

    Unfortunately the incumbent Ayr North SNP councillor Douglas Campbell has taken a stroke. I wish him all the best in his recovery.

    Apparently the SNP’s canvassing figures are not looking good, and that they are not confident they can win the proposed boundary change in Ayr and Carrick at the next UK general election.

    I’ve also noticed that the SNP are not properly managing their vote: different candidates are canvassing at different times in the same places. It looks very much like a free-for-all.

  31. With the nominations in my prediction for South Ayrshire is unchanged at:

    Ayr West (4): Conservative 3 Scottish National 1
    Troon (4): Conservative 2 Scottish National 1 Labour 1
    Prestwick (4): Conservative 2 Scottish National 1 Labour 1
    Ayr East (3): Conservative 1 Scottish National 1 Labour 1
    Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton (3): Scottish National 1 Conservative 1 Independent 1
    Kyle (3): Scottish National 1 Conservative 1 Labour 1
    Girvan and South Carrick (3): Independent 1 Scottish National 1 Conservative 1
    Ayr North (4): Scottish National 2 Labour 1 Conservative 1

    South Ayrshire (28): Conservative 12 (+2) Scottish National 9 (=) Labour 5 (-4) Independent 2 (=)

    Largest party: Conservative
    Administration: Conservative-Labour (supported by both Independents)

    Labour have indicated that they will most likely form a coalition with the largest party on South Ayrshire Council following the election in the local paper, and have indicated their preference for maintaining the presiding Conservative-Labour coalition. As I’ve predicted before the coalition is likely to remain on past this May’s council election.

    Administration (19)-
    * Conservative 12
    * Labour 5
    * Independent 2

    Opposition (9)-
    * Scottish National 9

    Given the SNP’s apparent poor polling samples in South Ayrshire the Conservatives should be polling ahead in Ayr West, Troon, Prestwick and Ayr East and possibly even in Kyle, Maybole, North Carrick & Coylton and Girvan & South Carrick (which would represent an absolutely terrible night for the local SNP).

  32. “Given the SNP’s apparent poor polling samples in South Ayrshire the Conservatives should be polling ahead in Ayr West, Troon, Prestwick and Ayr East and possibly even in Kyle, Maybole, North Carrick & Coylton and Girvan & South Carrick (which would represent an absolutely terrible night for the local SNP).”

    So the SNP are not losing any seats according to your forecast but you claim it would be “an absolutely terrible night for the SNP” ?

  33. Well Scottyboy a lot has happened since 2012, this time last year it would’ve been unthinkable to have the SNP taking a mere 9 seats in South Ayrshire.

  34. So you are claiming that if they do not lose any seats as you forecast it will be an absolutely terrible night for them?

  35. “Labour have indicated that they will most likely form a coalition with the largest party on South Ayrshire Council following the election in the local paper, and have indicated their preference for maintaining the presiding Conservative-Labour coalition. As I’ve predicted before the coalition is likely to remain on past this May’s council election.”

    And Scottish Labour wonder why their vote is in freefall?

  36. @ Scottyboy – to be fair to Labour the only reason why they are likely to take seats in Troon, Prestwick and Ayr East is because the Conservatives have aren’t going for overall majority here. With more Conservative candidates it would be more difficult for them to hold at least half of their seats.

  37. Effectively, the unionist parties are working together to defeat the nationalists.

  38. It looks that way to me Scottyboy, at least in South Ayrshire.

    Labour tend to be more transfer-friendly among Conservative voters. It makes sense for the local party to work with the Conservatives in order to get more of their candidates elected (by ensuring that the Conservatives stand fewer candidates to give Labour a free-run in Ayr East, Prestwick and Troon), giving them a bigger say in the running of the Council. This also works for the Conservatives by ensuring that the coalition has a larger majority, whereas if the party stood more candidates in Ayr East, Prestwick and Troon they would be running the risk of getting more SNP elected and potentially isolating themselves from their coalition partner.

    A number of controversies over the years has exposed the local SNP group as being very incompetent and centrally run from Glasgow.

    Some examples of this include a £87,000 expenses scandal between Corri Wilson and Chic Brodie, various splits in the local party over the standing of Jennifer Dunn as the Ayr candidate in 2016 (resulting in Corri Wilson allies such as Andrew Bryden and Chic Brodie standing as Independents in this May’s local elections), senior SNP Councillor Douglas Campbell missing a crucial vote on the future of the Heathfield Retail Park (a key source of employment in his own ward) to play games at “Gamesworkshop” and Corri Wilson lying about employing her children as caseworkers/personal assistants when it is documented in the Westminster General Register and claiming the 7th highest expenses in the United Kingdom last year. All very fishy, and their candidates have widely been recognised as toeing the party line and being significantly less independent over the Conservative, Labour and Independent candidates.

    Remember that this is council politics we are talking about, not national politics: there’s nothing controversial about two opposites working together, as we had Conservative-SNP coalitions in East Ayrshire and Dumfries & Galloway last time around! The constitution is well beyond the powers of local government in Scotland!

  39. You can’t exactly blame Labour for the SNP refusing to cooperate either!

  40. ” being significantly less independent over the Conservative, Labour and Independent candidates.”

    At least the SNP candidates are standing as SNP.

    The rest should be standing under the Con/Lab/Ind banner or simply the anti-nationalist flag.
    Surely increasingly desperate Scottish Labour voters must be despairing at the actions of their party in this neck of the woods. Why vote Labour? They may as well vote Conservative as here they are in effect the same party.

    When the results are in, you could save yourself a lot of time by dividing the results into two columns, for and against SNP.

  41. So the SNP in East Ayrshire should stand as “Tartan Tories” then?

    This is a local election for goodness sake, where dog shit and potholes should be more pressing matters over the constitution. If the local SNP refuse to cooperate with other parties on these matters then that is their own fault.

  42. The only folks that are cooperating appear to be the Conservatives and Labour. Cooperating I should say to help themselves, not the electorate.

  43. They are cooperating to serve their own mutual interests, which they believe is in the best interests of the electorate. There’s nothing wrong with that.

    I remind you that:
    1. The Conservatives are in coalition with the SNP in East Ayrshire.
    2. The local SNP branch is clearly incompetent in comparison to counterpart branches elsewhere in Scotland. A refusal to cooperate with other parties in order to get their manifesto pledges through is their own fault.
    3. This is a LOCAL ELECTION. Party differences don’t matter.

    The Conservatives and Labour want to get their policies through in South Ayrshire as they believe this is in the best interests of the electorate: they have work together with relative success in the past, why should Labour jeopordise this and work with what appears to be a more unstable and centrally run group of councillors?

    Labour have said that they are prepared to work with whichever party ends up being the largest in South Ayrshire, but have indicated concerns that the local SNP group are unwilling to cooperate and lack independence from Glasgow.

  44. All-in-all it’s very likely that the Conservatives will end up the largest party in South Ayrshire and will form a coalition with Labour, with the support of both Independent councillors.

  45. NTY,

    You do a lot of good work on this site which is appreciated, by me certainly. However, in this constituency you are frankly wasting your time with any analysis. As I said, draw up two columns, one for SNP and one against SNP. There, analysis complete.

  46. Thank you, although I would be careful not to let national politics drag you down in these local council elections as you might end up being disappointed at a few Conservative-SNP coalitions.

    It is relevant to make a distinction between the Conservative and Labour groups here because they will still have their differences, voting differently on certain matters, and most people will still treat this election like any other and vote as they normally would, which could give us some insight into how the new Westminster constituencies might end up voting come 2020. I would be surprised if the Conservative-Labour coalition here had any significant impact on voting here.

  47. ” I would be surprised if the Conservative-Labour coalition here had any significant impact on voting here.”

    It has already! Labour and Conservative are working together as one party in their candidate structure. Some independent minded folk would consider that unfair.

  48. 2016 notional:
    SNP 45
    CON 32
    LAB 21
    LD 2

    Admittedly there is a chance of a Conservative gain here although it’s a long shot.

    Based on the latest two opinion polls the Conservatives will be looking to come ahead in the town of Ayr roughly 10% ahead of the SNP, tying with them in Carrick. The real contest will be in the Cumnock end of the constituency: if the Conservatives can overtake Labour here then they would probably win the seat. This part of the constituency had a decent No vote in 2014 (54% No), a good Leave vote in 2016 and has retained a relatively strong Labour presence (who took around 37-38% of the vote here in 2016). The target audience of the Scottish Conservative campaign in this election.

  49. Me from the VoteUK site:
    “Bill Grant has been selected as the Conservative candidate for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.

    As a local councillor he is diligent, hard-working and tireless. He is very polite, approachable and down-to-earth in person. He’s the only local councillor who commands any real respect among my family members too, as he cleans up litter in my grandparents area every week, and was also sighted by another member of my family (an SNP supporter) cleaning up litter in a different part of Ayr West. He also contributes regularly to the local newspaper and local newsletters, and from my perspective he’s the most active councillor in supporting local events and community groups in my area. All of my family (including the SNPer) like Bill Grant and hate Corri Wilson. That’s really saying something, as my family don’t have much respect for any other South Ayrshire councillors and don’t know most of them! He’s definitely the most known and respected councillor in my circles.

    As a political candidate Bill Grant commands a strong personal vote in Ayr West (38% of the First Preference vote in 2012, up 8% on 2007), taking an impressive 25.5% of the vote in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock at the 2010 general election. If anyone is going to defeat Corri Wilson, Bill is the man.”

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