Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10355 (19.8%)
Labour: 14227 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 855 (1.6%)
SNP: 25492 (48.8%)
UKIP: 1280 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 11265 (21.6%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012. First elected as MP for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11721 (26%)
Lab: 21632 (47%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJ: 9911 (22%)
2005
Con: 10436 (23%)
Lab: 20433 (45%)
LDem: 6341 (14%)
SNP: 5932 (13%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 9997 (22%)
2001*
Con: 7318 (18%)
Lab: 22174 (55%)
LDem: 2932 (7%)
SNP: 6258 (16%)
Oth: 1425 (4%)
MAJ: 14856 (37%)
1997
Con: 8336 (17%)
Lab: 29398 (60%)
LDem: 2613 (5%)
SNP: 8190 (17%)
Oth: 634 (1%)
MAJ: 21062 (43%)

2015 Candidates
LEE LYONS (Conservative) Artist manager, consultant and event organiser.
SANDRA OSBORNE (Labour) Born 1956, Paisley. Educated at Camphill Secondary School and Jordanhill College. Counsellor. Former Kyle and Carrick councillor, former South Ayrshire councillor. MP for Ayr 1997 to 2015. PPS to Helen Liddell 2002-2003. Resigned as a PPS over the war in Iraq.
RICHARD BRODIE (Liberal Democrat)
JOSEPH ADAM-SMITH (UKIP)
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012.
Links
Comments - 442 Responses on “Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock”
1 2 3 9
  1. The Tories’ hold of Ayr in 1992 came through during the BBC’s coverage when David Dimbleby was taking a look at the newspapers for Friday, and at the same time ITN, having covered the seat with reporter Mark Smith of Scottish Television from the word go, actually showed the declaration live.

  2. The Tories do have a rock solid core vote in Ayr and Ayr West is the third strongest Tory ward in Scotland IIRC.

    The Tories aren’t quite dead in urban affluent Scotland apart from Aberdeen.

  3. the boundaries in both Ayr and Edinburgh have been especially unfriendly to the Conservatives in recent years.

  4. I think that’s fair comment Runnymede.

    There is a good chance that the Conservatives would have won Ayr, Edinburgh Pentlands and Perth if the 2005 boundary review never happened.

  5. Perth as well?

  6. I think so, Annabelle Ewing only clung on by 48 votes in 2001. I think it was even less on the first count!

  7. Not sure about Ayr, certainly Perth and Pentlands did not vote Conservative in 2010 on pre-2005 boundaries.

  8. I meant in 2005, you’re absolutely right about 2010 though.

  9. It would have been interesting to see whether narrow Tory gains in 2005 would have been lost in 2010, or whether incumbency would have saved them.

  10. I agree HH, the 2005 review was a body blow for the Tories in Scotland, as they could have won 3-4 seats which would have gave them a good foothold.

  11. I think Pentlands may have been won by the Tories in 2010 if it had still existed. It’s true that they wouldn’t have carried it when you try to assess how the various wards would have voted in 2010 but the new boundaries had a lot to do with that, with the Tories not sure whether Edinburgh South or South West was the better seat for them. Before it was unambiguously Pentlands.

  12. HH is right. The Conservatives should perhaps be giving Alistair Darling a better fight, in a seat which still after all includes Colinton, Juniper Green, Fairmilehead, Balerno & Currie. That the Tories are so far behind him in a seat with all these apparently strong (or even in some cases very strong) areas speaks volumes about the depths to which they have sunk in Scotland. It is true however that Edinburgh SW, which includes some very Labour areas just outside or indeed on the fringes of the old city centre, is drawn much more to the favour of the Labour Party than Pentlands was: Pentlands after all not only excluded those areas, but even included parts of Morningside which are now in Edinburgh S along with the rest of that area. The boundaries in Ayrshire are indeed extremely unkind to the Tories, with all the seats except Kilmarnock & Loudoun having some very strongly Tory elements which are simply outvoted by various Labour strongholds.

  13. The Tories might have had a slim chance of holding Pentlands if Malcolm Rifkind or David McLetchie was the candidate. Otherwise forget it.

  14. I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of impossibility that Darling may be elivated to the Lords, assuming the Better Together campaign wins, which I think it will.

    If Darling did retire then I think this could be more interesting. I dare say he carries a fairly strong personal vote and his 2010 profile may have masked real support for Labour in the seat, if Darling retired then this coukl deliver a fairly strong (4-5%) swing to the Conservatives.

  15. That’s probably true, but even that amount of positive swing, which even the most pessimistic such as Robin would agree would be against the national trend in Britain as a whole, would still leave the Tories several thousand votes short of Labour in that seat.

  16. The only really interesting seat in Edinburgh now is West. The Tories probably have a better chance of winning that than South West (though their chances in both are minimal). Darling may have a big personal vote but so did Rifkind and McLetchie. Those kind of Tories who are able to appeal to the slightly snooty, well off and urbane Scottish voter are dying fast (sadly McLetchie is already dead). I don’t see this seat being interesting even if Darling retires.

  17. Prediction for 2015-
    Osborne (Labour)- 49%
    Conservative- 23%
    SNP- 21%
    Liberal Democrats- 6%
    UKIP- 1%

  18. LAB HOLD MAJ: 29%
    LAB 50
    SNP 21
    CON 19
    LD 5
    UKIP 3
    GRN 2

  19. Ashcroft poll:

    SNP 42
    LAB 31
    CON 21

  20. Ayr (locality): No +60% (based on sample data)

    Ayr (2011 Scottish Parliament): No 61.35% (notional range: 61.14-61.65%)

    Ayr (1983 UK parliament): No 60.61 – 61.65% (notional range: 60.61-61.65%)

  21. The notional figures above are estimates based on various polls and data from the census, simd and oac mapping along with political history and estimated political figures derived from Electoral Calculus. They regard the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 for Ayr and surrounding areas.

    The Ayr locality voted no by 60% according to sample data gathered from local campaign groups (political parties & referendum campaign groups).

    Based on the data collected, the area of Carrick is believed to have voted Yes in the referendum by an estimated 52%.

    Ayr – Scottish parliament which is estimated to have voted no by 61.35% encompasses the electoral wards of Troon, Prestwick, Ayr West, Ayr East and Ayr North.

    The 1983 Ayr constituency includes Troon, Prestwick (excluding 2003 Prestwick Toll ward), Ayr (excluding Castlehill) and Kyle (exlcuding Mossblown, Annbank and St Quivox ward 2003). A broader estimated of 60.61%-61.65% No here was used as data relating to the ward is out-dated. The area is believed to have voted slightly more in favour of independence than the current Ayr parliamentary constituency for the Scottish parliament yet this is hard to tell.

    The Kyle electoral ward is believed to have voted no by around 55-56% No (this is an estimate based on Ayr data).

    Data collected from campaign groups suggest that Cumnock and Doon Valley voted against independence.

  22. This seat is a hard one to call:

    In South Ayr there’s high support for the Tories – reaching upto 70% in some areas. The same cannot be said for elsewhere in South Ayrshire which is included within the constituency: Ayr North and Carrick both likely voted marginally for independence (as shown above).

    Assuming that the above statement is correct and that Labour somehow manage to hold on to a sizeable degree of pro-Union support in areas such as Cumnock then the seat will look very messy.

    Blue in the north west, yellow along the centre and red to the east.

    A rising support for the Tories in the town of Ayr coupled with unionism in Cumnock etc. might give the Tories hope that they can win the constituency, yet this is very unlikely. What is possible is a rise in support for the Tories, perhaps +1-2%.

    I would assume that in Ayr the Tories would come out on top with around 38-41% of the vote, with SNP finishing a close second and Labour coming third, taking the vast remainder of the vote (perhaps 20+%).
    In Carrick, the SNP will no doubt do well and could take around the same share of vote as the Tories do in Ayr. The Conservatives and Labour will split the remaining vote, with the Tories possibly finishing second through it’s stone support in patches of Carrick such as parts of Girvan.
    In the East Ayrshire section of the constituency the Tories will almost definitely trail into third, with Labour and the SNP battling for votes here. My inclination is that Labour will win here but not by much.

    Because of this split in vote I feel that the SNP will take the constituency. This is primarily because of their large spread of support across the constituency. Labour will certainly finish second followed by the Tories in last. The Tories do have a good, solid level of support in Ayr, Prestwick and Troon but as this is split up there is no chance that they can win in either Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock or Ayrshire Central. This will no doubt be one of Labour’s biggest targets – if they can convince unionist tory voters in the more affluent parts of Ayr that the SNP is the bigger evil, then it’s very possible that they could win the seat.

  23. I am surprised that the Conservatives accepted the abolition of the Ayr constituency in the 2005 boundary changes as the new ‘Ayr’ constituency is really the old Carrick, Cumnock & Don Valley.

    A reduction from 5 to 4 Ayrshire constituencies could have been achieved through merging Kilmarnock & Loudon and Cunningham South (Irvine) rather than abolishing Ayr.

    Ayr (Ayr, Troon and Prestwick)
    Ayrshire North & Arran (as current boundaries)
    Ayrshire South East (Carrick, Cumnock, Doon Valley, Loudon, Stewarton)
    Kilmarnock & Irvine (Kilmarnock & Irvine)

    If you re-configure the ward by ward estimates from electoral calculus to reconfigure the pre-2005 Ayr constituency Labour would still be ahead but not by much. The old Ayr constituency is seat the Tories would have a chance to come through the middle but not in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.

  24. “I am surprised that the Conservatives accepted the abolition of the Ayr constituency”

    LOL. Spoken like the Tories had any power to reject anything in Scotland. I don’t think their 1 MP could have done very much about it. No doubt the 2005 boundaries were a Labour stich up.

  25. “If you re-configure the ward by ward estimates from electoral calculus to reconfigure the pre-2005 Ayr constituency Labour would still be ahead but not by much. The old Ayr constituency is seat the Tories would have a chance to come through the middle but not in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.”

    That is true but those are estimates done through calculation as opposed to fact: electoral calculus splits turnout figures equally among wards, which benefits areas like Ayr North and under-represents the constituency in general, where turnout is no doubt higher than either Ayrshire Central and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock.

    The 2003 local elections for South Ayrshire provide the best snapshot for the area, with a high turnout compared to some elections (I believe it was around 60%). All local elections after this period are less precise by using the STV system (which mean bigger electoral wards) and have lower turnouts. It highlights where the Conservatives are strong and weak, which is also emphasised by SIMD/OAC data (I’d suggest you look this up, there is a clear collation with affluent/suburban and urban areas and support for the Tories). Furthermore, the Tories won the constituency in the Scottish parliament in 2000 (by-election), 2003, 2007 and (new boundaries) 2011. The boundaries were altered prior to 1997 to disclude a number of key Conservative areas such as Doonfoot and Alloway (where support for the Tories was at around 70% in the 2003 local elections) and Masonhill (which had over 50% support for the Tories). The current Scottish parliamentary constituency is perhaps among the best possible boundaries for the Conservatives – the best possibly being with the addition of the former Dundoald and Loans electoral ward which voted Conservative by +50% in 2003.

    The former constituency almost certainly rejected independence by a margin above 61%. This might have been higher in some places, and I imagine that in the most affluent parts some +75% of voters voted no.

    The remainder of South Ayrshire most likely had a more marginal result. It has been an integral part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency for years, which has been notoriously far left. The area voted predominantly Labour in 2003 – it’s effect on the South Ayrshire area is also significant, which may explain why the area voted no by around 57.87%. Taking the current Ayr constituency local election results for 2003 would give the Tories 43.34% of the vote and Labour 34.27% whilst the remaining area of South Ayrshire voted majority Labour although this was marginal.

    As HH says I doubt they had much choice and the current boundaries are unrepresentative (as is the system completely!) I can’t see a new Ayr constituency in the future due to it’s electorate size unless a “Kyle” constituency was to be created to encompass the northern section of South Ayrshire (Ayr, Prestwick, Troon, Kyle,

  26. *If any future seat reviews use the same tariff system as the sixth review then the only possible, plausible seat for the Tories would be a seat encompassing all of the Troon, Prestwick, North Ayr, West Ayr, East Ayr and Kyle wards. It would also need to include the polling places of Annbank Village Hall (S701/S702) and Coylton PS (S703/S704) – see here: http://www.south-ayrshire.gov.uk/consultations/pollingreview.aspx

    This would not necessarily harm the Tories too much as Colyton and Minishant voted Con 44.3% in 2003 (39% Lab) – this support likely comes from Joppa.

    On the other hand, Annbank, St Quivox and Mossblown voted Lab 55.4% however expensive new builds in St Quivox will likely benefit the Tories – as will the new builds at Doonholm Meadows in Alloway. Tarbolton and Craigie did vote Tory in 2003 but this is likely due to a high level of support among socialist voters for an Independent candidate, as the area voted quite strongly Scottish Socialist in the 2000 Ayr byelection of the Scottish parliament.

  27. The general consensus was that Labour had most reason to be happiest with the 5th Review, as more of their proposals got accepted. I’m not sure about Ayrshire, but certainly it looks like that might be the case.

    That said, I’m not sure Dalek’s Ayrshire South East would meet with much approval from the Boundary Commission. The southern portion makes perfect sense and although the Irvine Valley fits best with Kilmarnock, it’s not stupid to combine it with Cumnock. Stewarton, on the other hand, has no place being in the same seat as Carrick.

    You could perhaps remove Stewarton and instead add the eastern part of the present Kyle ward, but the resulting seat would be too small. I guess if you made the A77 the western boundary and added Hurlford you might have a case, but even then I suspect you’d have a smallish seat that would split natural interest groups about as much as the present arrangement does.

  28. In my mind the best (albeit improbable) solution under a 4 constituency system in Ayrshire would be:

    – Ayr and Arran:

    Incorporating the current Scottish parliamentary constituency of Ayr (which takes up the electoral wards of: Troon, Prestwick, Ayr North, Ayr East and Ayr West) with the electoral wards of Kyle and Arran & Ardossan (part: Arran). The approximated electorate size would be 74,500. The area would likely be a Conservative-SNP marginal seat, with Kyle and Arran cancelling each other it would possibly be similar to former Ayr seats (Dundoald & Loans and Arran both voted strongly Conservative in 2003 local elections with a high turnout, whilst the remainder of Kyle was Labour-voting).

    – Ayrshire South and East

    Would include (in full) the electoral wards of: Maybole, North Carrick & Colyton, Girvan & South Carrick, Annick, Irvine Valley, Ballochmyle, Cumnock & New Cumnock and Doon Valley. It would also extend into Kilmarnock East & Hurlford (part: Hurlford). The electorate size for the area would be around 75,200 – it would most likely be won by the Labour Party. Most electoral wards in this area rejected independence, which effectively cancelled out a strong ‘Yes’ vote in Kilmarnock.

    – Kilmarnock, Irvine and Stevenson

    All three towns within the constituency voted in favour of independence and were formally Labour-voting but have since switched to the SNP in Scottish elections. They share similar demographics and election patten. This seat would include the following electoral wards: Kilmarnock North, Kilmarnock West & Crosshouse, Kilmarnock East & Hurlford (part: Kilmarnock East), Kilmarnock South, Irvine West, Irvine East and Saltcoats & Stevenson (part: Stevenson). The area would have an estimated electorate size of 76,900 and would most likely be SNP/Labour voting.

    Ayrshire North and Inverclyde South West

    Would include the electoral wards of Kilwinning, Saltcoats & Stevenson (part: Saltcoats), Ardossan & Arran (part: Ardossan), Dalry & West Kilbride, Kilbirne & Beith, North Coast & Cumbraes and Inverclyde South West. This would most likely vote SNP with an electorate of around 75,000.

    Five additional seats across Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute would need to be created to meet the tariff whilst remaining inside council boundaries. (East Dunbartonshire has a suitable electorate size to be it’s own constituency).

    In terms of the Sixth Boundary review all constituencies above meet the tariff electorate size and are impressively close yet slightly below (apart from Kilmarnock, Irvine and Stevenson) the UK electoral tariff (average) of 76,641.2. The average electorate size for the remaining five constituencies in Inverclyde, Argyll & Bute, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire would be 76828.4 – making it suitable and very possible for them to be created whilst remaining within the required electoral size of between 72,810 and 80,473.

  29. @ Edward: There’s no possible arrangement that would please every interest group, for example the North Coast portion of North Coast & Cumbraes has been primarily Conservative-voting for years, however it is surrounded by predominantly working-class towns and villages – there’s no way to incorporate it into a Conservative seat whilst remaining within the electoral tariff (unless some quasi-Ayr, Kintyre, Arran and Cumbraes constituency was included, yet this would be too large in electorate size to meet the bill).

    There is a similar scenario in Colyton which is probably best suited with Ayr/the Kyle electoral ward, however it would be much harder to accomplish any constituency for Carrick, Cumnock etc. without the inclusion of Colyton.

    My scenario would likely see the following:
    Con – 1
    Lab – 1
    SNP – 2

    This is more reflective than most other alternatives such as the absolutely ridiculous grouping of Ayr with Carrick and Cumnock – two completely separate areas in terms of demographics, voting patterns, history etc.

  30. The real problem is that the Tories get negligible support in less well off parts of Scotland, which is not necessarily the case in similar parts of England. I was going to say they need very specific boundaries to compete in Ayrshire because it tends to be a mix of different areas relatively close together, but then that’s really the problem in other areas too. You just can’t afford to be at deposit-losing levels across large parts of a constituency if you want to be competitive.

  31. I think putting Arran in with Ayr is probably a bad idea given the lack of a ferry link. You’d probably be better off adding Coylton, or even just making the seat a little smaller than its neighbours.

  32. @ Edward: Taking what you’ve said into account it’s a tight squeeze to create any sort of “Ayr” constituency in line with the Sixth review, but I think I have done so – barely.

    It would require the following constituencies:

    • Ayr –
    Would incorporate the electoral wards of: Ayr North, Ayr East, Ayr West, Prestwick, Troon, and Kyle. It would also include part of the Colyton, Maybole & North Carrick electoral ward. The area north of the A70 which forms part of the Colyton, Maybole & North Carrick would have to form part of the Ayr constituency, alongside the entire village of Joppa, Colyton: the remaining third of Colyton would form part of the Ayrshire South and East constituency.
    • Electorate (Approx): 73,500
    • Most likely hypothetical election result: CON GAIN

    • Ayrshire South and West –
    This constituency would cover the electoral wards of Girvan & South Carrick, Annick, Irvine Valley, Ballochmyle, Cumnock & New Cumnock and Doon Valley. The majority of the Colyton, Maybole & North Carrick electoral ward would be a part of the constituency, with the exception of all parts of the ward north of the A70 and the village of Joppa. A third of the Kilmarnock East & Hurlford electoral ward would also be included within the constituency, bounded by the A77 – which would effectively result in the villages of Hurlford and Crosshouse transferred to the constituency.
    • Electorate (Approx): 73,000
    • Most likely hypothetical election result: LAB HOLD

    • Kilmarnock, Irvine and Stevenson –
    The nearby towns of Kilmarnock, Irvine and Stevenson would form this constituency. This means that, in full, the constituency would cover the electoral wards of: Kilmarnock North, Kilmarnock South, Kilmarnock West & Crosshouse, Irvine West and Irvine East. The Kilmarnock-side of Kilmarnock East & Crosshouse west of the A70 would also be included as part of the constituency, as would the eastern portion of the Saltcoats & Stevenson electoral ward making up the town of Stevenson.
    • Electorate (Approx): 76,000
    • Most likely hypothetical election result: SNP GAIN

    • Ayrshire North and Inverclyde South West
    The electoral wards of Kilwinning, Ardrossan & Arran, Dalry & West Kilbride, Kilbirnie & Beith, North Coast & Cumbraes and Inverclyde South West would be used to create the constituency, along with elements of the Saltcoats & Stevenson electoral ward – the western area forming the Saltcoats.
    • Electorate (Approx): 79,000
    • Most likely hypothetical election result: SNP GAIN

    I would suggest that this is a faired reflection of the election, given that under the current arrangement the most likely outcome as it currently stands for 2015 would be four SNP seats, with no representation for the Conservatives or Labour who would most likely form around 50+% of the vote in Ayrshire as a whole.

  33. Sorry typo, the second constituency listed should be called “Ayrshire South and East”.

  34. @ MPR – I’m not sure about the 1997-2005 boundaries, but certainly with the 1983-1997 boundaries.

  35. There’s a big assumption there that everyone would vote the same way under different boundaries. I strongly suspect that the anyone but the Tories party would have mobilised with its usual effectiveness under such circumstances.

  36. @ Simon – The Ayr seat in the Scottish parliament is the Tories oldest constituency seat, voting Con since 2000.

    Support for Labour in the 2003 local elections was behind the Tories by 3,266 (9.06%) – this election had a similar turnout in Ayr to that of the WESTMINISTER election in 2001.

    Labour saw their % vote fall in Scotland in 2005 at 4.5% – it is therefore pretty reasonable to assume that the constituency would have voted Conservative in 2005, where the Tories had a notional rise in vote of 5% in ACC – Labour had a notional decrease in vote of 10% in the constituency.

    It’s difficult to pinpoint but Labour’s notional support in ACC decreased from 2001-2005, it saw a drop in vote in the 2003 local elections. For the current Scottish seat, the Tories actually had more votes in the 2003 local than in 2001 westminister at 1,400 – by contrast Labour had around 4,500 fewer votes.

    Whatever the case, the current arrangement is gerrymandered to benefit Labour, with the majority of those in Ayr, Prestwick and Troon being vastly under-represented on a Westminister level.

    Historically, Labour’s “the Tories are back” bleating in Ayr hasn’t went down too well with voters eg. 2011 Labour’s %vote fell significantly in Ayr.

  37. @NTY UK

    Quite interesting looking at the 2011 Scottish Parliament election result in Ayr. The Tories held onto the constituency by ~3% (1,100 votes), but the SNP won the list vote by a massive margin (17% or 5,800 votes). Suggests a very large personal vote for the constituency MSP, John Scott.

  38. @James I’d suggest this is definitely a factor; from Phil Gallie onwards Conservative representatives have made sure they’re conspicuous by their presence in the constituency.

    This isn’t the place to debate whether they’ve been effective representatives or not, but they have certainly made sure they are visible.

    John Scott is the only MSP who has ever chapped my door for example – and not even in campaigning season.

  39. @ James – Yes, ironically the SNP candidate for Ayr was elected as a regional MSP (partly due to the Ayr vote!) yet wasn’t elected on constituency. It’s difficult to comprehend why someone would vote for Scotland’s most ‘active’ unionist party and also vote for it’s national party. I think personal vote/incumbency played a role in getting him re-elected, possibly also tactical voting by Tories to keep Labour out in the regional list – I think it was the Tory seat with the most regional votes for the SNP (but I would need to check that). It could also be that voters know the Tories are unlikely to form government in Scotland.

  40. @SAINTSTEVIE – Well in local elections the SNP have used the campaign slogan “SAVE AYR HOSPITAL” as NHS Ayrshire & Arran were going to shut the hospital down. John Scott ran the campaign to save the hospital, so perhaps this might have contributed to his victory?

  41. @NTYUK That’s the point I’m making – Conservative representatives here have always made sure they’re very prominent locally.

    My mother in law for example always said she voted for Phil Gallie – note that she used candidate name rather than party – as he was ” a good local MP”. She can’t tell me one thing he actually did for Ayr, but he succeeded in giving her the perception that he was fighting Ayr’s corner.

    NOTE: I’m not arguing whether or not these representatives have or have not done anything for Ayr – just making the point that they’ve worked very hard to gain that perception.

  42. @SAINTSTEVIE – Yes I know – we agree in this aspect. I’m not too sure how John Scott is perceived in Ayr to be honest: I live in Ayr and don’t hold much of an opinion of him, but he is certainly perceived locally to be a “good MSP” vs most other representatives.

    It still doesn’t take away from the fact that the Tories have historically done well in Ayr on a local, Scottish and British level.

    Off-topic a bit – who are you planning to vote for in Ayr/ACC (or AC if you live in Prestwick/Troon)?

  43. Sorry I messed that comment up there!

    ** From what I can see he’s perceived well in Ayr, but I don’t hold an opinion on him and I’m not too sure – I do know some Tory voters etc. who dislike him, although even in the local council there are some prominent Tory figures which are popular among voters.

  44. YouGov’s “Nowcast” range for ACC (31/03/15) –

    SNP 36.9-48.8
    LAB 24.7-35.5
    CON 15.4-24.6
    UKIP 0.8-3.9
    LD 0.5-3.3
    OTH 0.3-2.7

    Classification – SNP

  45. @NTY I’m AC – I’m SNP, my wife’s Labour and her parents are Tory…if her sister voted LD we’d have all bases covered. How about you?

  46. @ Saintstevie – I wouldn’t place myself under a single party, “unionist” maybe? Labour for ACC, Conservative for Ayr, Labour for regional, Conservative for council & Labour for EU.

    My family are a mix of SNP/Lab with 2 Tories (it’s half Lab, half SNP for those living in Ayr).

  47. Just some estimates by me regarding the referendum for South Ayrshire (the full article can be found on vote UK forums) –

    • Troon: Yes 35% No 65%
    • Prestwick: Yes 37% No 63%
    • Ayr North*: Yes 51% No 49%
    • Ayr East: Yes 41% No 59%
    • Ayr West*: Yes 30% No 70%
    • Kyle: Yes: 43% No 57%
    • North Carrick, Maybole & Colyton: Yes 54% No 46%
    • South Carrick & Girvan: Yes 52% No 48%

    • Ayr (town/locality) – Yes 41% No 59%
    • Ayr (Scottish parliament) – Yes 39% No 61%
    • Carrick** – Yes 53% No 47%
    • Kyle & Carrick – Yes 50% No 50% (marginal No majority)

    * Serious revisions made to Ayr North, West and Carrick. Sources have contradicted each other on the results on Ayr North meaning the results were close, yet Yes vote seems more likely. Revised down from 51% No to 51% Yes. Ayr West was revised up from 68% No to 70% No based on electoral history/data etc.

    ** Carrick revised down from 51% Yes (51% No in South Carrick / 51% Yes in North Carrick) to 53% Yes due to data from SIMD which would suggest that the income structure of the area would result in a higher Yes vote.

  48. Revised estimated referendum results for South Ayrshire*

    Sorry for spamming the chat here, it’s just for those keen like me to know how the area voted 😛

    • Troon: Yes 35% No 65%
    • Prestwick: Yes 36% No 64%
    • Ayr North*: Yes 54% No 46%
    • Ayr East: Yes 41% No 59%
    • Ayr West*: Yes 30% No 70%
    • Kyle: Yes: 43% No 57%
    • North Carrick, Maybole & Colyton: Yes 52% No 48%
    • South Carrick & Girvan: Yes 49% No 51%

    • Ayr (town/locality) – Yes 40-41% No 58-59%
    • Ayr (Scottish parliament) – Yes 39% No 61%
    • Carrick** – Yes 51% No 49%
    • Kyle & Carrick – Yes 48% No 52% (marginal No majority)

  49. Some election mail:
    Tories –
    The title of the leaflet is “IN TOUCH”, the front section of the leaflet is completely dedicated to the economy/recovery with pictures of Lee Lyons standing in front of the local hospital and school in Ayr (I can’t actually see any mention of schools or the NHS on the leaflet)…? I’m not buying most of it, and with the title “In Touch” it shows how out of touch a party really is. This feels like it’s been delivered straight from the Tory HQ.

    Over the next side in covers basic Tory policies – new roads and facilities for the communities in the Carrick area and a reduction in Wind Farms. The main focus of the leaflet is certainly around the Ayr area with a highlighted section regarding regeneration of Ayr’s town centre, the creation of a by-pass in Maybole (which has been campaigned for locally for many years – the MP incumbent Sandra Osborne has also been vocal about the creation of a by-pass but as of yet all attempts and proposals have failed). There’s also a mention of the Heathfield retail park and some references to the environment. Two pictures of Lee in Ayr, and a picture of him in presumably some village in Carrick. There’s one mention of Cumnock from what I can see – I suppose this indicates that the Tories focus is truly on the South Ayrshire section of the constituency.

    Labour –
    This election leaflet definitely feels more focussed and considerate. It goes over job creation, NHS, schools, helping working families etc. who Sandra suggests are £1,600 worse off with the Tories and SNP. I think it goes over the areas where Scottish Labour have generally failed to focus on: it mentions how she’s an experienced MP, and it differentiates itself from the SNP by the pledge that “100,000 new homes to deal with the SNP’s housing shortfall…” Also mentioned freezing energy bills, scrapping the bedroom tax? (This is definitely cut and pasted from Labour HQ), mentions the mansion tax etc. which will bring 1,000 extra nurses and raising minimum wage. There’s also accounts from 4 local voters including a woman who says she voted yes but “the choice now is between a Labour Government… or five more years of the Tories”, and there’s also mentions of how she’s fought for local jobs, regeneration of towns in Carrick area and the Maybole bypass.

  50. Is Richard Brodie (Lib Dem) Chic Brodie’s (former Lib Dem now SNP) relative? It seems quite likely…

1 2 3 9
Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)