Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10355 (19.8%)
Labour: 14227 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 855 (1.6%)
SNP: 25492 (48.8%)
UKIP: 1280 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 11265 (21.6%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012. First elected as MP for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11721 (26%)
Lab: 21632 (47%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
SNP: 8276 (18%)
MAJ: 9911 (22%)
2005
Con: 10436 (23%)
Lab: 20433 (45%)
LDem: 6341 (14%)
SNP: 5932 (13%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 9997 (22%)
2001*
Con: 7318 (18%)
Lab: 22174 (55%)
LDem: 2932 (7%)
SNP: 6258 (16%)
Oth: 1425 (4%)
MAJ: 14856 (37%)
1997
Con: 8336 (17%)
Lab: 29398 (60%)
LDem: 2613 (5%)
SNP: 8190 (17%)
Oth: 634 (1%)
MAJ: 21062 (43%)

2015 Candidates
LEE LYONS (Conservative) Artist manager, consultant and event organiser.
SANDRA OSBORNE (Labour) Born 1956, Paisley. Educated at Camphill Secondary School and Jordanhill College. Counsellor. Former Kyle and Carrick councillor, former South Ayrshire councillor. MP for Ayr 1997 to 2015. PPS to Helen Liddell 2002-2003. Resigned as a PPS over the war in Iraq.
RICHARD BRODIE (Liberal Democrat)
JOSEPH ADAM-SMITH (UKIP)
CORRI WILSON (SNP) Educated at Ayr Academy and West of Scotland University. South Ayrshire councillor since 2012.
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Comments - 442 Responses on “Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock”
  1. I wish him every success

  2. As a pro-independence columnist in the local paper puts it “…But Bill is a whole new ball game to the Tories’ 2015 candidate, Lee Lyons. Corri Wilson has the SNP stamp – and the Tories don’t cut it in some parts of the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock constituency. But Bill has a high profile – and Corri has no profile.”

  3. On the current constituency boundaries this area hasn’t voted Conservative in a general election in over 80 years.

  4. What was the breakdown of first preferences here on 4 May?

  5. @ Jack Sheldon-

    Conservative … 12,693 (35.8%)
    Scottish National … 10,370 (29.3%)
    Labour … 6,732 (19.0%)
    Independent … 5,436 (15.3%)
    Green … 180 (0.5%)
    Libertarian … 31 (0.1%)

  6. Thanks. This clearly should now be a target, then.

  7. Yes I’ve been looking at the Holyrood and local election results here very carefully and I think based on current polling it is too close to call between the Cosnervatives and the SNP.

    2016 Holyrood election notional for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock-
    SNP 45
    CON 32
    LAB 21
    LD 2

  8. From the ground I’ve heard that the Conservatives are “optimistic”, but not sure if they seriously think that they can gain the seat. Corri Wilson and her team are apparently, and please excuse my language, “absolutely s**ting it” with the local SNP filled with “chaos and panic”.

    On current polling I believe that this will go on a knife edge given the local election results.

  9. Ultimately my expectation is that in most of the seats where they were 3rd in 2015 the Cons may end up falling just short. I also wonder if the negative coverage of the Tory national campaign over recent weeks may put off some 2015 Lab voters who were tempted to vote tactically.

  10. I’m going to say Con gain

  11. CON GAIN. Cracking night for Team Ruth

  12. Yup. Fair play to Ruth, she’s a much better person than May, and this is coming from a Labour supporter.

  13. In terms of Scottish Parliamentary constituency seats it looks like Ayr is now a safe Conservative seat, whilst Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley is marginal SNP.

    For the 2017 general election:

    AYR SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT CONSTITUENCY:
    Con 48%
    SNP 31%
    Lab 19%
    LD 2%

    17% Con Maj.

    CARRICK, CUMNOCK AND DOON VALLEY SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT CONSTITUENCY:
    SNP 38%
    Con 32%
    Lab 28%
    LD 2%

    6% SNP Maj.

  14. Despite increasing their share of the vote by nearly 3% in Scotland Labour share of the vote fell in each of Ayrshires four constituencies. The swing from SNP to Lab in Kilmarnock seems to be one of the smallest in Scotland.

  15. Interesting observation, Dalek. Quite a change from the 1987-20?? period in which Ayrshire was so solidly Labour-voting.

  16. Kilmarnock has seen Labour underperform in relative terms in most elections since 1997 & it would be one of the last seats which Labour would regain from the SNP in which they currently remain the main challenger.

  17. Fairly artificial Labour vote here in 2015: Labour in fact increased their vote and polled ahead in Cumnock and Doon Valley at the general election, but collapsed in Ayr and Carrick due to lots of anti-SNP tactical voting in that area at the last general election benefiting Labour.

  18. “Kilmarnock has seen Labour underperform in relative terms in most elections since 1997 & it would be one of the last seats which Labour would regain from the SNP in which they currently remain the main challenger.”

    Interesting point. In the SNP Labour defence battleground the safest SNP seats (or least marginal seats) are now Cumbernauld, Aberdeen North, Kilmarnock, Falkirk, Dundee East and Dundee West.

    The SNP were completely defeated on the SNP/ Lab battleground in 1987 (losing both the Western Isles and Dundee East) and had no representation in on this battleground until regaining the Western Isles and Dundee East 18 years later during which time the SNP represented only traditionally Tory constituencies.

    We tend to think that when the SNP (or the Lib Dems) win traditionally Tory areas that that they are elected on a solidly centre right vote and then by a solid centre left vote in traditional Labour areas but the opposite is often the case.

  19. I was looking at the performance of Scottish Labour in the 13 Scottish Conservative seats. The Conservative leads over Labour in seats 01 to 06 are extraordinary given that the Conservatives were no longer challengers in any of these seats following 2010. Labour also outpolled the Conservatives in Gordon in 2010 and also Moray in 2001. DCP was a notional Labour seat prior to 2005 where it was created as a notional Conservative Gain.

    What is interesting is that if the SNP went into a 1979 scale of collapse at the next General Election the Conservatives would be likely to hold all the seats listed below as long as they could sustain their own vote. In 1979, Labour not only comfortably retained all the Conservative targeted Labour seats but also gained Glasgow Cathcart and leapfrogged over the Conservatives to gain East Dunbartonshire from the SNP. The leads of over 7000 should mean that the Conservatives could hold their seats even if the SNP vote collapses and goes mostly to Labour.

    01 *East Renfrewshire 7,150 (13.3%)
    02 *Stirling 7,389 (15.0%)
    03 *Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 7,526 (16.2%)
    04 *Ochil & South Perthshire 11,622 (21.5%)
    05 *Aberdeen South 9,602 (21.5%)
    06 *Dumfries & Galloway 11,569 (22.4%)
    07 *Gordon 15,521 (28.9%)
    08 *Angus 12,915 (32.2%)
    09 *Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale’ 16,075 (32.9%)
    10 *Moray 17,429 (36.6%)
    11 *Aberdeenshire West &’ 18,998 (36.8%)
    12 *Banff & Buchan 16,040 (38.5%)
    13 *Berwickshire, Roxburgh’ 23,694 (45.3%)

  20. There is a slight flaw in this analysis – Labour has the capacity to take Tory votes as well as SNP ones!

  21. That is why is included the words “as long as they could sustain their own vote.”

  22. Dalek does write a lot of rubbish these days but I think he’s right here on the general point about the Tories being likely to hold their seats at Westminster in the short term. Only Stirling looks seriously vulnerable being a University seat and with its minuscule majority.

    Realistically I think the Tories can hold their 13 seats next time and gain Argyll, Central Ayrshire and Perth and North Perthshire if the Tory vote stands still and the SNP drops a few %.

    Labour is more likely to gain Edinburgh SW and Lanark and Hamilton East than the Tories IMO if the SNP completely collapses despite the Tories being in 2nd place in those seats.

    The biggest mystery is how the 2017 Tory vote will behave in places like Paisley next time, depending on whether people were voting actively for the Tories or just making a unionist protest vote but the big story of this election was the softness of the SNP vote at least at Westminster relative to the Labour and the Tories

  23. Inverness is another seat to watch. The Tories were up from 6% to 30% there. They wouldn’t win it if a general election were held tomorrow, but if the SNP collapses further and they can squeeze the residual Lib Dem vote, who knows?

  24. I think that the SNP’s problem at Westminster is that it is historically seen as a two horse race between the Conservatives and Labour whereas they are clearly a choice of government at Holyrood. Its clear that the SNP appear to have been squeezed at both ends of the spectrum despite remaining the largest party.

    We need to see the result of the Cardonald Glasgow City Council By Election in Glasgow South West and also look and Scottish Holyrood and Westminster opinion polls to understand how Scottish politics are moving. Cardonald will only inform on the relative position between Labour and the SNP….as even a complete collapse in the Tory vote could be put down to tactical voting.

    Personally I think we are going to see a re-opening up of the divergence between Westminster and Holyrood voting habits with some of the YES vote going back to Labour in Westminster elections but backing the SNP at Holyrood.

    The other interesting thing is that after 2017 we now have a huge number of marginals in Scotland with only 5 constituencies out of 59 (Edinburgh South, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Aberdeenshire West and Orkney & Shetland ) being safe seats and all the other constituencies ranging from ultra marginal to semi-marginal.

    I think that at the next election the numbers of marginals will reduce dramatically with many MPs increasing their majorities and the odd ultra marginal changing hands on a large swing becoming a semi-safe seat.

    What we saw in 2017 was some MPs bucking the trend like Mhairi Black and Pete Wishart who defended semi marginal seats when safe SNP seats were lost. I think that they will increase their majorities next time and new entrants like Labour’s Paul Sweeney in Glasgow NE. Overall, I think many of the 54 Scottish marginals will disappear.

  25. You sure do come out with some amount of crap Dalek. Your claims are completely unfounded!

    Eastwood would also be classed as a safe seat.

  26. Also there’s a by-election in Fortissat (Airdrie & Shotts) on the same day as the Cardonald by-election which is due to be held on 7 September.

  27. NTY UK @ “You sure do come out with some amount of crap Dalek.”

    I do not agree with much of what you say but I do not resort to making personally insulting comments.

    Perhaps you should review the guidelines for making comments on this site.

  28. Sorry Dalek, I didn’t mean for that to be personal.

    All I’m saying is that it’s rather pointless for you to spam various threads emphasising that the SNP are absolutely sure to remain where they are or improve on their tally of seats when we have absolutely no opinion polling to back those claims up. I just find that to be completely irrational and misleading.

    And you’ve also spammed various sub-sample polling, which would actually go against your point that the SNP’s vote is unchanged, when time and time again various contributors have pointed out that these subsample polls have substantial margins of error as they only sample about 100 people (when in actual fact it should be 1,000 to get some degree of accuracy) and that these polls are not weighted for Scotland to factor in different socio-demographics like age, gender and social class.

  29. Cherry-picking subsample polls to suit your narrative despite the fact that they are completely inaccurate is also very misleading…

  30. NTY UK- remember that ‘nationalism’ always needs an enemy. Spiteful little twats the majority of them are.

  31. Dalek’s politics shouldn’t come into this: expecting a party to do well does not mean that you support that party, but being repetitive, misleading and overly defensive about that position without providing any real evidence really contributes nothing to this site.

  32. Dalek is Peter Crerar, a Tory councillor in Aldershot. Perhaps a little far away to be an expert on what’s going on on the ground in the land of the haggis. He can claim to be the original “Plopwellian Tory”….back in circa 2008 on the old archived site he was seriously arguing that Dulwich & West Norwood and Streatham would be Tory gains in 2010….go and check if you don’t believe me. In recent years he’s morphed from hyper Tory optimist into very much a pessimist.

  33. Whereas the REAL Daleks are eternally optimistic.

  34. That doesn’t even excuse how ridiculous and misleading he’s be being.

  35. I think that the general rule should be that, whereof people cannot speak from an informed position, they should remain silent.

  36. If that rule is ever implemented, this site will be very short of posts

  37. Peter is actually a Scot though he is in Aldershot – hence his interest in Scottish politics. He was previously a Tory councillor in Kingston-upon-Thames and several of colleagues in RIchmond Park CLP (which of course includes part of Kingston) remember him.
    H.Hemmelig you have a point, though both you & I would be OK 🙂

  38. Peter was Tory candidate in one of the Glasgow seats in 2010 I think, getting about 5 votes (OK I exaggerate). The televised declaration is/was on Youtube somewhere. It reminded me of the episode of Rab C Nesbitt where the Tory by-election candidate bribed Rab to vote for him by buying him alcohol and only got 1 vote.

  39. Richard Leonard elected leader of Scottish Labour

    Result:

    Affiliated supporter:
    Richard Leonard 3,281 77.3%
    Anas Sarwar 961 22.7%

    Members:
    Leonard 9,150 51.8%
    Anas Sarwar 8,514 48.2%

    Total:
    Leonard 12,469 56.7%
    Sarwar 9,516 43.3%

  40. A somewhat worrying result for the SNP: they are most definitely vulnerable on their left flank.

  41. More generally they are finding it increasingly difficult to be all things to all people. Every government has a shelf life.

    I do wonder whether this might hit the Scottish Greens too, just as Labour’s leftward shift has rendered them somewhat redundant in England and Wales.

  42. Well, this certainly isn’t going to win over the Nats:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/11/scottish-labour-leader-i-support-england/

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