Aberdeen North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5304 (12.1%)
Labour: 11397 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 2050 (4.7%)
SNP: 24793 (56.4%)
TUSC: 206 (0.5%)
Others: 186 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 13396 (30.5%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, North East. Part of the Aberdeen City council area.

Main population centres: Aberdeen.

Profile: Aberdeen North contains most of the historic centre of Aberdeen, including the University and Aberdeen Harbour, which serves much of the North Sea Oil industry. The majority of the Scottish Parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen Central falls within this seat, and it is more urban than the old pre-2005 Aberdeen North having lost suburban areas like Dyce, Danestone and Bridge of Don.

Politics: The seat had been held by Labour since 1935, but fell to the SNP in their 2015 landslide.


Current MP
KIRSTY BLACKMAN (SNP) Aberdeen councillor since 2007. First elected as MP for Aberdeen North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 4666 (12%)
Lab: 16746 (44%)
LDem: 7001 (19%)
SNP: 8385 (22%)
Oth: 903 (2%)
MAJ: 8361 (22%)
2005
Con: 3456 (9%)
Lab: 15557 (42%)
LDem: 8762 (24%)
SNP: 8168 (22%)
Oth: 691 (2%)
MAJ: 6795 (19%)
2001*
Con: 3761 (14%)
Lab: 12025 (45%)
LDem: 4547 (17%)
SNP: 5379 (20%)
Oth: 717 (3%)
MAJ: 6646 (25%)
1997
Con: 6944 (19%)
Lab: 17745 (50%)
LDem: 4714 (13%)
SNP: 5767 (16%)
Oth: 446 (1%)
MAJ: 10801 (30%)

2015 Candidates
SANJOY SEN (Conservative) Oil engineer.
RICHARD BAKER (Labour) Born 1974, Edinburgh. Educated at St Bees School and Aberdeen University. Contested MSP for North East Scotland since 2003.
EUAN DAVIDSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Aberdeen University.
KIRSTY BLACKMAN (SNP) Aberdeen councillor since 2007.
CHRISTOPHER WILLETT (National Front)
TYRINNE RUTHERFORD (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 153 Responses on “Aberdeen North”
  1. Indeed thanks for your input, Anthony

  2. Can anyone direct me to any sort of discussion amongst the Scottish seats in the past on how secession would actually work…?

    If the vote late next year happens to go the SNPs way.. then what would be the effective date? Would MPs elected in May 2015 for Scottish constituencies sit in the House of Commons? If Labour wins in 2015 by a margin of any less than 40 seats then that margin will have been provided by MPs who would be shortly jobless, surely?

    As we know a positive vote still looks unlikely but it throws up some interesting questions…

  3. I think you had better email that question to Alex Salmond and let us all see the reply.

    As you say, no matter what is legally the case, if Scotland votes YES in 2014, their Westminster MPs will lose all their legitimacy instantly.

    I would expect a deal between the SNP and the Tories to either abolish Westminster elections in Scotland before 2015, or at least to stop any Scottish MPs from voting on anything to do with the rest of the UK.

    As you say it could get very messy indeed.

  4. Cunning devils….

    Blow to the LibDems as they lose 11 of their seats.. but at the same time makes them more of a “must have” for a depleted Labour..

  5. “Architecture critic Jonathan Meades celebrates Aberdeen, the granite city full of ‘brand new’ 300 year old buildings”:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNbc7NeW3Wg

  6. My forecast for 2015

    Lab 40
    SNP 32
    LD 12
    Con 9
    others 7

  7. On current UNS the SNP would win this seat. This seems improbable, but then on UNS they should be winning in lots of seemingly improbable places.

    What are people’s thoughts on this? Is the SNP vote going to work as well for them as UNS would suggest/will it be near perfectly distributed, or are they going to stack up scary majorities in some seats but fail to break others?

  8. the SNP will have to win a seat like this if the hype about them is in any remote way justified….

    the glasgow seats seem much more safely labour, so this, from a seat gain point of view, is much lower hanging fruit.

    Aberdeen North will be very difficult for the scots nats to win, that ‘s why i think there is way too much hype about their chances of winning 25 seats etc.

  9. On UNS they are winning in Berwickshire and DCT!

  10. A couple of things to bear in mind about the SNP performance next year.

    1. They will not have anything like the lead over Labour that current polls are suggesting. If they top the poll they will have done very well and achieved a large swing – they may do, but they won’t have a lead of 10 points, let alone 20+

    2. There will not be a UNS. The SNP will do very well in Glasgow, and the western central belt generally. This is an area where they will need a fantastic performance to win any seats. In the north east, where they have historically done better, they are unlikely to pile on the votes (except in Dundee).

    That being said, Aberdeen North is one of those seats they might do well. I’d probably make Labour favourites here, but it could be pretty close. I think if the SNP take this they’ll probably be around 15 seats – I still think they’ll have a total of about 12.

  11. Although Labour had a large majority in Aberdeen North last time, it’s important to bear in mind that Frank Doran is standing down this year. This could increase the SNP’s chances because I suspect, based on anecdotal evidence, that Mr. Doran attracted quite a large personal vote. A significant swing would be required but it’s still far from impossible.

  12. I note that Richard Thomson has his hat in the ring for the SNP nomination for this seat.

    Richard Thomson was the SNP candidate for Gordon (now certain to be contested by Salmond) at GE 2010.

    He moved the SNP from fourth to second place and, if chosen, is likely to increase the likelihood of a large swing to the SNP who start in second place here.

  13. Even of the SNP level peg with Labour say both equalise on 32% (11% swing from Lab to SNP) the swing from Lab to SNP will be far in excess of 11% in many Labour held seats because there are not sufficient a Labour votes for Labour to sustain 11% swings against them in hopeless LD and SNP seats.

  14. One of the candidates for the SNP nomination in Aberdeen North is David Cameron:

    http://www.aberdeensnp.org/node/44
    http://committees.aberdeencity.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=551

  15. 20 new SNP selections courtesy of Angus Robertson’s Twitter feed:

    Aberdeen North: Kirsty Blackman.
    Aberdeen South: Callum McCaig.
    Argyll & Bute: Brendan O’Hara.
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk: Calum Kerr.
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale: Emma Harper.
    East Kilbride: Lisa Cameron.
    Edinburgh North & Leith: Deidre Brock.
    Glasgow North East: Anne McLaughlin.
    Glenrothes: Peter Grant.
    Dunfermline & West Fife: Doug Chapman.
    Inverclyde: Ronnie Cowan.
    Lanark & Hamilton East: Angela Crawley.
    Midlothian: Owen Thompson.
    Motherwell & Wishaw: Marion Fellows.
    North Ayrshire & Arran: Patricia Gibson.
    Linlithgow & East Falkirk: Martyn Day.
    Paisley & Renfrewshire North: Gavin Newlands.
    Paisley & Renfrewshire South: Mhairi Black.
    West Dunbartonshire: Martin Docherty.
    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: Stu Donaldson.

    https://twitter.com/moraymp

  16. The candidate in Paisley and Renfrewshire south appears to only be 20-21. For a seat in which they have a good chance of winning based on the Ashcroft poll a interesting choice. Could both UKIP(Boston and Skegness) and SNP win seats with extremely young candidates. The media would love it.
    Aberdeen North and Aberdeen South( Only 28-29 I think) also have very young candidates.

  17. Mhairi Black gained a decent reputation among independendists during the referendum campaign. Having watched her speak, she is more than able to provide stiff competition to Dougie Alexander.

  18. I tend to think that the SNP will win here but Labour will hold South. Would be interesting to see constituency polls for Aberdeen, the Lothians & Fife, since we haven’t had any yet. Ashcroft’s first polls have been very West-of-Scotland-&-Highlands-heavy.

  19. Also polling from Ayrshire would be useful, although I would expect it to fall into the pattern of West-Central Scotland.

    Regarding Aberdeen South, the only reason I can see that the seat wouldn’t go SNP is Anne Begg’s personal vote.

    Ashcroft’s polling showed that the personality of the Labour incumbent was not decisive in polling intentions in West-Central Scotland. However, it should also be said that they may have already been bearing the incumbent in mind when giving their standard VI.

    However, despite being an MP since 1997, Anne Begg’s vote share has never varied from the 35-40% mark. I would suggest that this does not smack of great personal popularity.

    A poll in one of the Aberdeen seats would have been interesting to find out what kind of Lib Dem vote we have in Aberdeen, and where it will go.

  20. Aberdeen N has a longish history of electing SNP MSPs, & the SNP have at times figured in the Westminster constituency. They have never showed in South up to now though I accept that they pose a threat now.

  21. One would think that by most laws of political gravity that the current massive (and to my way of thinking, slightly unnatural) SNP lead would start to moderate a bit as we creep closer to May 7, although this has certainly not started to happen yet.

    Nonetheless, if I were an SNP supporter phrases like ‘peaking too soon’ and other similar ones would be bothering me.

  22. The polls now are not that different from the result that the SNP achieved in 2011 for Holyrood. A little bit more of a swing to the SNP since, but then they managed to persuade some people during the referendum, so you could argue that swing is to be exoected if people are largely voting along referendum lines.

  23. Dr [email protected] The SNP have not peaked now….They peaked in October and (nearly 4 months ago) and have remained consistent since.

    There is now much less time between polling day and now that between now and last October.

    If Scottish Labour were going to be in a position to re – establish a lead they would have to have made progress in Dec and Jan. The longer these huge SNP leads go on for the less likely it is for Labour to turn them round.

  24. I wondered if I could be added as the Liberal Democrat candidate for this seat.

  25. I was just wondering if the furore over the city centre development is having any impact on the campaign here?

  26. There was a Green candidate here but they pulled out. It’ll be interesting to see whether a replacement is found at this late stage.

  27. Don’t assume the BBC’s candidate pages are correct.

    For example they have a UKIP candidate in Aberdeen North who didn’t actually show up on the SOPN:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000001

  28. Labour had best get their red handkerchiefs out…the tory and lib dem vote will collapse and it will all go to SNP, who will win

  29. The LD vote collapsing to the SNP is credible, the Conservative vote doing the same is deeply improbable. Even in the context of a national election presented as a contest between the two leaders, in tactical terms Scottish Conservatives are more than happy to back Labour if that is seen as the best way of preserving the Union.

    Perhaps in 2011, and before, Conservatives backed the SNP as the anti-Labour choice, but as the SNP normally polls as being more left-wing than Labour, on the standard economic and social issues, too, Conservatives have no reason to lend them their vote.

  30. That said, hat eating will be on the cards if the SNP don’t win by country mile here, whatever the oil price shock.

  31. Aberdeen North is generally more deprived than the South, and given that Aberdeen city voted against independence by 58.6% it would be reasonable to assume that the vote was much closer in the North – perhaps 55-56%. The results for 2010 seem pretty reflective of the national picture in Scotland, which would have no doubt also been true for the referendum and will probably be true in 2015. In addition, I believe there’s too much strength in the Lib Dem/Tory vote to give Labour the edge over the SNP based on the referendum.

    @ Marcus Buist:

    2011 census for % 16-74 year olds working in Agriculture, energy and water (seems most suitable industry which would cover oil & gas extraction):

    Aberdeen North 6.71%
    Aberdeen South 12.10%

    Given the relative wealth difference between Aberdeen North & South I would assume that generally speaking employment related to the oil industry is higher in the south as I would expect more affluent parts of the city to have more oil & gas workers. The city’s more affluent areas tend to be in the south-west and along the outer suburbs of the city (eg. Bridge of Don – which is mostly part of the Gordon constituency) which are mostly incorporated as part of the Aberdeen South constituency.

  32. @NTY UK

    I suppose the point of oil and gas is not just those directly employed in the industry, but simply a greater awareness of the issue, and an awareness that the SNP have made oil a long-term plank of the campaign for independence, and that the industry is no in considerable difficulty,

    Very impressive use of the census figures! Also, good to remember that the northern part of Aberdeen City Council is in Gordon.

  33. This is an interesting one. Many predicting an SNP gain here but I don’t know if that will be the case. With the Aberdeen higher than average no vote with the referendum, upside for SNP should be limited, though I do concede that in Aberdeen North there is I believe a higher number of independence supporters than in the south of the city. Unlike Aberdeen South where I think the LD vote is more of a Centrist support with a tendency to move to the right if the vote collapses, here I think the LD vote is a leftish Social Democratic one and I can see a lot of LD votes going to Labour. I therefore don’t think that the SNP will pick this one up though it will be close. Labour need to concentrate on mobilising its vote.

  34. @ Marcus Buist – this is just something I noticed when reading the newspaper today: Aberdeen South has Scotland’s top income tax payers with an average of £8,610. This could again have a link to the Oil and Gas industry which perhaps brings more benefits to southern Aberdeen?

    Your point on Aberdeen/North East generally having a higher awareness on oil and gas is definitely important, for example looking up “price of oil” on google trends for Scotland shows a 100 search volume for Aberdeen compared to a search volume of 34 in Edinburgh and 33 in Glasgow – this clearly reflects the economic significance of oil in the area.

  35. Labour win, given the apparent crash in the oil price, then all voters will turn to a credible party of ‘working families’

  36. I’ve reevaluated here, it’s a nailed down SNP win, can’t see Labour holding back the tide.

  37. Neil Turner:

    Are you Jim Murphy?

  38. My name is not Jim..I just fail to see how the SNP can overturn such a big Labour majority in this seat – !

  39. You’re looking at things upside down and back-to-front. Things have changed so much in Scotland in the last five years that many of the 2010 voting numbers are almost worthless for making a prediction. That was already becoming clear in 2011. Now it’s certain.

  40. @Neil Turner – here is a very simplified answer, it’s not scientific but could show an example of how.

    Labour lose 10% of 2010 share to SNP. You now would have a marginal.

    LD vote is squeezed following coalition, swing from them could go anywhere but more likely SNP.

    Possibly some tactical Tories voting Labour to help them but overall chances are very slim as I suspect the 10% I mentioned above to actually be nearer 20%.

    @Piemonteis – you might be onto something, it could be Jim Murphy 🙂

  41. But I have been lead to believe that what happens in Assembly and European Elections has no impact on General Elections – see Alyn and Deeside….I still predict a Labour win, as when push comes to shove, many Scots will switch to Labour at the last minute in order to keep the Tories out UK wide

  42. True in previous elections, but Scotland has had a polar shift Neil. At the last election support for independence was about 25%. Since the referendum campaign it has moved and stuck to around 45%.

    The SNP used to be more of a protest vote but the polls can’t be that wrong. Even if the estimated 25% labour share is nearer 30% it will be a bloodbath.

    The fact is, Scotland is now totally divided with no coherent unionist voice which the SNP will exploit taking many seats, including this one.

    I know there is a move in this seat to tactically align behind labour but I don’t think it will be enough.

  43. Aberdeen should be one of Labour’s best areas in Scotland in 2015. But I think that now this might be a narrow SNP Gain.

  44. What were the 1975-1996 equivalents of the present George Street/Harbour ward?

  45. @ Harry Porter:
    1980 – 1995
    Castlehill
    Pittodrie (south)
    Denburn (east)
    Causewayend
    Sunnybank

    1995 – 1999:
    Castlehill
    Mounthooly
    Sunnybank
    Pittodrie (south)

  46. Tories shade a very distant 2nd in Donside with a 10% increase in vote share

  47. I’ve revised some of my referendum figures and I believe that the No side took over 60% of the vote in the Aberdeen Central and Aberdeenshire East constituencies at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.

    Here are my current notionals from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum for Aberdeenshire:
    * Aberdeenshire West 68%
    * Aberdeen South and North Kincardine 63% NO
    * Aberdeen Central 61% NO
    * Angus North and Mearns 61% NO
    * Aberdeenshire East 60% NO
    * Aberdeen Donside 53% NO
    * Banffshire and Buchan Coast 53% YES

  48. Aberdeenshire West is 68% No*

  49. Kezia Dugdale has suspended the entire Aberdeen council team from the Labour party over their decision to go into coalition with the Conservatives and run the council.

    So the council is now, officially, a Con/IND coalition instead

  50. A coalition of chaos? It’s not the first time there have been Con-Lab administrations in local government.

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