Scottish Independence Referendum

Referendum Voting Intention

This includes all polls asked using the referendum wording since January 2012 (including those asked before the Electoral Commission adjusted the proposed question).

  Survey End Date Yes No Wouldn’t vote D/K Yes Lead
Panelbase (3) 17/09/14 45 50 n/a 5 -5
Ipsos MORI/STV (1) 16/08/14 47 49 n/a 5 -2
Survation/Daily Mail 16/09/14 44 48 n/a 8 -4
Opinium/Telegraph 15/09/14 43 47 1 8 -4
Survation/Better Together (T) 12/09/14 42 49 n/a 9 -7
Panelbase/Sunday Times (3) 12/09/14 46 47 n/a 7 -1
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (O) 11/09/14 48 42 n/a 10 +6
ICM/Guardian 11/09/14 40 42 n/a 17 -2
Opinium/Observer 11/09/14 43 47 2 8 -4
YouGov/Sun/Times (3) 11/09/14 45 50 2 4 -5
Survation/Daily Record 09/09/14 42 48 n/a 10 -6
YouGov/Sunday Times (3) 05/09/14 47 45 1 6 +2
Panelbase/Yes Scotland (3) 04/09/14 44 48 n/a 8 -4
TNS-BMRB 04/09/14 38 39 n/a 23 -1
YouGov/Times/Sun (3) 01/09/14 42 48 2 8 -6
Survation/Daily Mail 28/08/14 42 48 n/a 11 -6
YouGov/Times (3) 15/08/14 38 51 2 9 -13
Panelbase/Yes Scotland (3) 15/08/14 42 46 n/a 12 -4
ICM/Scotland on Sunday (1) 14/08/14 38 47 n/a 14 -9
Survation/Daily Mail 07/08/14 37 50 n/a 13 -13
YouGov/Sun (3) 07/08/14 35 55 2 9 -20
TNS-BMRB 07/08/14 32 45 n/a 23 -13
Ipsos MORI/STV (1) 03/08/14 40 54 n/a 7 -14
Survation/Mail on Sunday 01/08/14 40 46 n/a 14 -6
Panelbase/Sunday Times (3) 22/07/14 41 48 n/a 11 -7
ICM/Scotland on Sunday (1) 11/07/14 34 45 n/a 21 -11
TNS-BMRB 09/07/14 32 41 n/a 27 -9
Survation/Daily Record 08/07/14 41 46 n/a 13 -5
YouGov/Times (3) 29/06/14 35 54 2 10 -19
TNS-BMRB/Scotland Sept 18 23/06/14 32 46 n/a 22 -14
YouGov/Sun (3) 16/06/14 36 53 2 9 -17
ICM/Scotland on Sunday (1) 12/06/14 36 43 n/a 21 -7
Panelbase/YesScotland (3) 11/06/14 43 46 n/a 12 -3
Survation/Daily Record 10/06/14 39 44 n/a 17 -5
Ipsos MORI/STV (1) 01/06/14 36 54 n/a 10 -18
TNS-BMRB 28/05/14 30 42 n/a 28 -12
ICM/Scotland on Sunday (1) 15/05/14 34 46 n/a 20 -12
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 14/05/14 40 47 n/a 13 -7
Survation/Daily Record 12/05/14 37 47 n/a 17 -10
TNS-BMRB 02/05/14 30 42 n/a 28 -12
YouGov/Channel 4 (3) 28/04/14 37 51 2 12 -14
ICM/Scotsman on Sunday (1) 16/04/14 39 42 n/a 19 -3
Survation/Sunday Post (1) 15/04/14 38 46 na 19 -8
Panelbase/YesScotland (3) 09/04/14 40 45 n/a 15 -5
Survation/Daily Record (1) 07/04/14 37 47 na 16 -10
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland (3) 04/04/14 41 46 n/a 16 -5
TNS-BMRB 02/04/14 29 41 n/a 30 -12
YouGov/Times (3) 24/03/14 37 52 1 10 -15
ICM/Scotsman on Sunday (1) 21/03/14 39 46 n/a 15 -7
Panelbase/NewsNetScotland (3) 14/03/14 40 45 n/a 15 -5
TNS-BMRB 09/03/14 28 42 n/a 30 -14
Survation/Daily Record (1) 07/03/14 39 48 na 13 -9
YouGov/Sun (3) 28/02/14 35 53 1 11 -18
Ipsos MORI/STV (1) 25/02/14 32 57 n/a 11 -25
Panelbase/SNP (3) 21/02/14 37 47 n/a 16 -10
ICM/Scotsman on Sunday (1) 21/02/14 37 49 n/a 14 -12
Survation/Daily Mail (1) 18/02/14 38 47 n/a 18 -9
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 06/02/14 37 49 n/a 14 -12
TNS-BMRB 06/02/14 29 42 n/a 29 -13
YouGov/Sun (3) 05/02/14 34 52 2 12 -18
Survation/Mail on Sunday 31/01/14 32 52 n/a 16 -20
YouGov (3) 27/01/14 33 52 3 12 -19
ICM/Scotsman (1) 24/01/14 37 44 n/a 19 -7
TNS-BMRB/Open Democracy (2) 20/01/14 29 44 n/a 29 -15
TNS BMRB (2) 10/12/13 27 41 n/a 33 -14
YouGov/Times (3) 09/12/13 33 52 2 13 -19
Ipsos MORI/STV (1) 05/12/13 34 57 n/a 10 -23
Progressive/Mail on Sunday 28/11/13 27 56 n/a 17 -29
TNS BMRB (2) 27/11/13 26 42 n/a 32 -16
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 20/11/13 38 47 n/a 15 -9
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland (1) 24/10/13 37 45 n/a 17 -8
TNS BMRB (2) 02/10/13 25 44 n/a 31 -19
YouGov/Times (3) 16/09/13 32 52 2 13 -20
Ipsos MORI (1) 15/09/13 31 59 n/a 10 -28
Progressive Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail ??/09/13 27 59 n/a 14 -32
ICM/Scotsman on Sunday (1) 13/09/13 32 49 n/a 19 -17
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 05/09/13 37 47 n/a 16 -10
Panelbase/SNP (3)(*) 28/08/13 44 43 n/a 13 +1
TNS BMRB (2) 27/08/13 25 47 n/a 28 -22
YouGov/Devo Plus (2) 22/08/13 29 59 2 10 -30
Angus Reid (1) 16/08/13 34 47 2 17 -13
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 24/07/13 37 46 <1 17 -9
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 16/05/13 36 44 <1 20 -8
Ashcroft (2)(**) 09/05/13 26 65 n/a 10 -29
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 05/05/13 31 59 n/a 10 -28
Ashcroft (1) (**) 02/05/13 30 56 2 11 -26
TNS-BMRB/Herald (1) 02/04/13 30 51 n/a 19 -21
Panelbase/Sunday Times (1) 22/03/13 36 46 0 18 -10
TNS-BMRB/Scottish CND (1) 28/02/13 33 52 n/a 15 -19
Ipsos-MORI/Times (1) 09/02/13 34 55 n/a 11 -21
Angus Reid/Mail on Sunday(1) 01/02/13 32 47 1 20 -15
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 22/01/13 34 47 <1 19 -13
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (2) 04/01/13 32 50 3 16 -18
YouGov/DC Thompson (2) 24/10/12 29 55 2 14 -26
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 19/10/12 37 45 0 17 -8
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 15/10/12 30 58 n/a 12 -28
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 10/08/12 35 44 0 21 -9
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 17/07/12 36 45 0 20 -9
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 14/06/12 35 55 n/a 11 -20
Panelbase/Sunday Times (2) 01/02/12 37 42 <1 21 -5
Ipsos-MORI/Times (2) 29/01/12 39 50 n/a 11 -11

(*) NB – Panelbase/SNP question was asked after other questions that could have had a potential skewing affect
(**) NB – Ashcroft polls are carried out by different companies, so should not be taken as a single data trend. The 9th May 2013 Ashcroft poll asked the referendum question after other questions.

Ipsos MORI:(1) Should Scotland be an independent country? (Based on those certain to vote in a referendum)
(2) Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? (Based on those certain to vote in a referendum)

ICM:(1) As you may know, a referendum on independence will be held in Scotland on 18th September 2014. Voters will be asked, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country’. Do you think you will vote Yes or No?

Panelbase: (1) As you may know, the Scottish government intends to hold a referendum [this] year on Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. The question on the ballot is expected to be as below. How would you vote in this referendum? Should Scotland be an independent country? (2) As you may know, the Scottish government intends to hold a referendum next year on Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. The question on the ballot is expected to be as below. How would you vote in this referendum? Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? (3) There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

TNS-BMRB: (1) There will be a referendum on Scottish independence in the autumn of 2014. If the referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question, ‘Should Scotland be an independent country? (2) There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes, No, Don’t know.

Angus Reid: (1) As you may know, a referendum will take place in Scotland in the autumn of 2014. The referendum question proposed by the Scottish Government reads as follows: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” If this referendum were held today, how would you vote? (2) As you may know, a referendum will take place in Scotland in the autumn of 2014. The referendum question proposed by the Scottish Government reads as follows: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” If this referendum were held today, how would you vote?

Ashcroft: (1) If there were a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and being an independent country, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should Scotland be an independent country? (2) Finally the question that will be asked in the referendum next year: Should Scotland be an independent country?

YouGov: (1) If there were a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and being an independent country, and this was the question, how would you vote: Should Scotland be an independent country? (2) If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming an Independent Country and this was the question, how would you vote? Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
(3) If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland’s future and this was the question, how would you vote? Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

Survation: (1) In the referendum, voters will be asked, “Should Scotland be an independent country”. If this referendum were held today, do you think you would vote “Yes” or “No”?