Scottish Independence

NB: – This page includes general polling on attitudes towards Scottish independence, mainly from before 2012. Polling on the 2014 Scottish Referendum is on this page

Independence, Devo-Max or Status Quo

TNS BMRB:(1) . Thinking about the future of Scotland, which of these three options would you support the most: Keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers; Transfer more powers from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament, including tax and welfare but excluding defence and foreign affairs; Full independence for Scotland?
ICM: (1)In a Scottish referendum, which one of the following would you most prefer? A fully independent Scotland; Scotland having full control over its tax and spending plans but not being fully independent; Scotland remaining part of the UK but with its own devolved Parliament with some taxation and spending powers, as now.
Ipsos MORI: Thinking about Scotland’s constitutional future, which of the following statements most closely matches your views on this issue? Scotland should become a fully independent country, separate from the rest of the UK/ Scotland should remain part of the UK with the increased powers outlined in the Devo Plus proposal/ Scotland should remain part of the UK with the same devolved powers has at present
  Survey End Date Independence Devo Max Status Quo D/K
Ipsos MORI/Reform Scotland 14/06/12 27 41 29 4
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (1) 13/01/12 26 26 33 10
TNS BMRB/BBC (1) 01/11/11 28 33 29 10

Independence – straight choice

YouGov:(1) Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?
(2) Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should become a country independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?
(3)Do you agree that Scotland should become a country independent from the rest of the UK?
ICM: (1) Would you approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming an independent country?
TNS System 3: (1) Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming a country independent from the rest of the UK
Survation: (1) Do you support or oppose Scotland becoming an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom?
  Survey End Date Support Oppose D/K Net
YouGov(2) 20/07/12 30 54 16 -24
YouGov (1) 21/05/12 33 57 n/a 10
YouGov(3) 21/05/12 33 57 16 -24
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (1)(O) 13/01/12 40 43 17 -3
Survation/Mail on Sunday (1) 14/01/12 26 46 27 -20
YouGov/the Sun (1) 04/04/08 34 51 15 -17
YouGov/Channel 4 (1) 08/01/07 40 44 16 -4
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (1) 23/11/06 52 35 13 +17
YouGov/SNP (1) 03/04/06 46 39 15 +7
TNS System Three (1) 07/04/05 46 39 15 +7

Referendum – voting intention (with OLD pre-2012 wording)

Yougov: (1) If the SNP leads the next Scottish government after May it intends to hold a referendum on Scottish independence. The wording of the referendum question will be very similar to this. “The Scottish parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state”. The responses would be “Yes I agree” or “No I disagree”. On balance how would you be likely to respond? Yes I agree/ No I disagree/ Don’t know (2) The SNP wishes to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree ‘that the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state’. How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow? I would vote YES (i.e. for Scottish independence)/ I would vote NO (i.e. against Scottish independence)/ Don’t know/ Would not vote
TNS System Three: (1) The SNP have recently outlined their plans for a possible refrendum on Scottish independence in future. If such a referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote? I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state/ I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state/ Don’t know
ICM: (1) Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state”
  Survey End Date Yes No Wouldn’t vote D/K Net
YouGov (2) 10/01/12 32 53 n/a 15 -21
YouGov (2) 27/10/11 34 52 n/a 15 -18
TNS BMRB/Herald (1) 31/08/11 39 38 n/a 23 +1
TNS BMRB/Herald (1) 31/05/11 37 45 n/a 18 -8
YouGov (2) 29/04/11 28 57 n/a 15 -29
YouGov (2) 21/04/11 35 52 n/a 13 -17
YouGov (2) 28/03/11 33 51 n/a 16 -18
YouGov (2) 20/10/10 34 50 n/a 16 -16
YouGov (2) 04/05/10 28 58 n/a 14 -30
YouGov (2) 30/04/10 28 58 n/a 14 -30
YouGov (2) 23/04/10 31 54 n/a 16 -23
YouGov (2) 26/03/10 29 55 n/a 16 -26
YouGov (2) 26/02/10 27 55 n/a 18 -28
TNS BMRB/Herald (1) 02/12/09 31 46 n/a 23 -15
YouGov (2) 20/11/09 29 57 n/a 15 -28
YouGov/Daily Mail 26/08/09 28 57 5 11 -26
TNS System Three/Herald (1) ??/02/08 38 40 n/a ?? -2
YouGov/Sunday Times (1) 30/01/08 29 55 4 12 -26
TNS System Three/Herald (1) 29/10/08 35 43 n/a 22 -8
TNS System Three/Herald (1) 01/07/08 39 41 n/a 21 -2
TNS System Three/Herald (1) 04/04/08 41 40 n/a 19 +1
TNS System Three/Herald (1) 01/12/07 40 44 n/a 16 -4
TNS System Three/Herald (1) 23/08/07 35 50 n/a 15 -15
ICM/Scotsman (1) 30/04/07 35 55 n/a 10 -20
YouGov/Sunday Times (1) 20/04/07 33 50 n/a 17 -17

Referendum – voting intention (without wording)

YouGov: (1) If there were a referendum on whether to retain the Scottish Parliament and Executive in more or less their present form or to establish Scotland as a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom how would you vote? In favour of retaining the present Scottish Parliament/ In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK/ Would not vote. (2) If there were a referendum on whether to retain the Scottish Parliament and Executive in more or less their present form or to establish Scotland as a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom but inside the European Union, how would you vote? In favour of retaining the present Scottish Parliament/ In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK/ Would not vote/ Don’t know (3) If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote – in favour of Scotland being an independent country or against Scotland becoming an independent country?
TNS System Three:(1) The SNP have outlined their plans for a possible referendum which would transfer additional powers to the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country. If such a referendum were to be held tomorrow, would you support or oppose the following proposal? The Scottish Government proposes that the Scottish Parliament’s powers and responsibilities should be extended to enable independence to be achieved.
ICM: (1) In a referendum for independence for Scotland, how would you vote? I agree that Scotland should become an independent country/ I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country
MORI: (1) If there were a referendum, would you vote for a devolved Scotland within the United Kingdom, as at present, or for a fully independent Scotland? (2) The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, which is no longer part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal?
  Survey End Date Yes No Wouldn’t vote D/K Net
Ipsos MORI (2) 04/12/11 35 58 n/a 8 -23
TNS System Three (1) 06/12/10 40 44 n/a 16 -4
ICM/BBC (1) 24/06/09 38 54 n/a 7 -16
YouGov/Scottish Daily Express (1) 08/01/08 27 57 4 11 -30
YouGov/Telegraph (2) 26/04/07 25 53 4 17 -28
YouGov/Telegraph (2) 28/03/07 28 51 4 18 -23
YouGov/Telegraph (2) 22/11/06 31 50 5 14 -19
ICM/Scotsman (1) 30/10/06 39 51 n/a 9 -12
YouGov/Sunday Times (3) 07/09/06 44 42 n/a 14 +2
MORI/Scottish Daily Mail (1) 27/04/03 38 49 9 4 -11

Broad preference for Scotland’s constitutional position

YouGov:(1) The Scottish Parliament should be abolished and all Scottish laws passed by Westminster again/ There should be no change to the present arrangements: Scotland should have a devolved Parliament with limited powers/ The Scottish Parliament’s powers should be increased and it should raise more of its own taxes/ Scotland should be independent within the European Union/ Scotland should be independent outside the European Union (2) Thinking of constitutional change which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion: I support Scotland becoming an independent country/ I support the Scottish Parliament being given more powers, short of independence/ I support things remaining as they are/ I support the abolition of the Scottish parliament (3) And imagine now that such a referendum were held tomorrow…Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? Scotland should become an independent country’/ The Scottish Parliament should be given more powers, rather than Scotland becoming independent’/ Things in Scotland should remain as they are’/ The Scottish Parliament should be abolished’

  Survey End Date Independence Tax raising powers Status Quo No Parliament
YouGov/Sunday Times (3) 17/08/07 23 39 20 9
YouGov/Scottish Election Study (1) 23/04/07 42 23 23 14
YouGov/Sunday Times (2) 20/04/07 26 37 17 12

Preference for Scotland’s constitutional position – SSAS surveys

Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
  Survey End Date Independence Tax raising powers Status Quo No Parliament
SSAS 2007 23 55 8 10
SSAS 2006 30 ? ? ?
SSAS 2005 34 37 7 14
SSAS 2004 31 41 5 18
SSAS 2003 26 48 7 13
SSAS 2002 29 43 8 13
SSAS 2001 29 53 6 9
SSAS 2000 29 47 7 12
SSAS 1999 27 51 9 9