This week will obviously be dominated by Scottish polling – we have Opinium’s first Scottish referendum poll tonight, and possibly a Panelbase poll, and then final call polls from at least YouGov, MORI, Opinium and Survation next week. In the meantime though a quick detour to update the latest GB voting intention polls; we had three of them on Friday:

Populus – CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 31%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (tabs)

I was expecting the ICM/Guardian Scottish poll this evening, but in fact it’s popped out already here. Headline figures are YES 49%, NO 51% – joining all the other polls in showing NO ahead, but only by the tiniest of margins.

Worth noting that this was a telephone poll, whereas ICM’s previous Scottish referendum polls were done online – so there’s no point drawing any changes from ICM’s previous Scottish polling, it could just be methodological difference.

YouGov’s penultimate Scottish poll before the referendum is out tonight (the last one being the eve-of-poll one next week). Topline figures, with changes from the weekend, are YES 48%(-3), NO 52%(+3) – the No campaign are once again ahead, but it remains within the margin of error.

One can look at this two ways. One is that Yes moved briefly ahead, but there has been a move back – perhaps the Scottish people recoiled a bit from the risk when it began looking like it would really happen, perhaps the stories over the last few days of pension companies and banks redomiciling to the UK had a impact (fieldwork was between Tuesday and today, so later fieldwork would have picked some of it up). An alternative is that it’s just margin of error – the last poll was a little “yes-ey” or this poll is a little “no-ey”. It’s a natural human instinct to look for narrative, to weave data into a coherent story, when sometimes they are just random noise. As we enter the final week of the referendum campaign what we can be certain of is that the polls are now all showing it extremely close – YouGov and Panelbase have YES at 48%, Survation 47%, TNS 49%. No appears to be slightly ahead, but it’s close…

Survation have new Scottish poll out tonight for the Daily Record. Topline referendum figures are YES 42%, NO 48%, Don’t know 10%. Without don’t knows it works out at YES 47%(nc), NO 53%(nc) – exactly the same split as their previous poll at the end of August.

We now have a rather odd situation with the polls. For most of the Scottish referendum campaign we’ve had a situation where all the polls were showing a very similar trend (mostly little change, with occassional slight movement towards yes), but there were systemic differences between the overall figures: companies like Survation and Panelbase were consistently showing quite a tight race, companies like YouGov, MORI and TNS were consistently showing much bigger leads for NO. These past few weeks the polls have started to show different trends – YouGov and TNS have been showing a dramatic movement towards YES, Panelbase and Survation have shown things pretty static… but this means the overall figures have suddenly become much the same, everyone now seems to be showing a tight race, with Panelbase, TNS, Survation and YouGov all showing YES between 47% and 51%.

For the many people who keep on asking, here are the remaining Scottish referendum polls that I know about. It’s not necessarily exhaustive, there may be other polls out there still to come, but it’s the sum of my knowledge at the moment:

There is a Survation poll to come tonight, for the Daily Record
There is a YouGov poll for the Sun and Times on Friday
At the end of the week or weekend (not sure of the exact day) there is a new ICM poll
I think there is also a new Panelbase poll at the weekend

Next week there will definitely be final call polls from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, I’d expect both on Wednesday night. I imagine there will also be final polls from other companies like Survation and TNS who have regularly polled during the referendum campaign, but haven’t seen any confirmation yet.

There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections.

UPDATE: Scratch the idea of a final TNS poll, they aren’t doing one. Post on the new Survation poll coming up later.