West Midlands Euros
The West Midlands region covers Herefordshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire and the West Midlands Metropolitan councils. It currently returns 7 MEPs, but this will reduce to 6 at the next election, notionally reducing the number of Conservative seats by 1. Had the Lisbon treaty come into force before the election the number of UK MEPs would have increased by one, which would have been allocated to the West Midlands.
The region returned three Conservatives, two Labour, one Liberal Democrat and one UKIP MEP in 2004.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. |  |
Philip Bushill-Matthews (Conservative) | 392,937 (27.3%) | (Will stand down at next election) |
| 2. |  |
Michael Cashman (Labour) | 336,613 (23.4%) | |
| 3. |  |
Mike Nattrass (UKIP) | 251,366 (17.5%) | |
| 4. |  |
Liz Lynne (Lib Dem) | 197,479 (13.7%) | |
| 5. |  |
Philip Bradbourn (Conservative) | (196,469) | |
| 6. |  |
Neena Gill (Labour) | (168,307) | |
| 7. |  |
Malcolm Harbour (Conservative) | (130,979) | |
| -. | BNP | 107,794 (7.5%) | ||
| -. | Green | 73,991 (5.2%) | ||
| -. | Respect | 34,704 (2.4%) | ||
| -. | Pensioners Party | 33,501 (2.3%) | ||
| -. | Common Good | 8,650 (0.6%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | Michael Cashman Sitting MEP. Born 1950, London. Former actor, best known for playing Colin Russell in Eastenders. MEP for West Midlands since 1999. |
| 2. | Neena Gill Sitting MEP. Born 1956, Ludhiana. Educated at Liverpool Polytechnic. Prior to her election was chief executive of a social housing company. MEP for West Midlands since 1999. |
| 3. |  Claire Edwards Rugby councillor. |
| 4. |  Anthony Painter Journalist and author. |
| 5. | Victoria Quinn |
| 6. | Mohammed Nazir |
| 1. | Philip Charles Bradbourn Sitting MEP. Born 1951, Tipton. Educated at Tipton Grammar and Worcester College. Contested Wolverhampton South East 1992. Contested County Durham in 1994 European elections. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999. Awarded the OBE in 1994 for public and political service. |
| 2. | Malcolm Harbour Sitting MEP. Born 1947, Woking. Educated at Bedford School and Cambridge University. Formerly worked as a engineer, executive and consultant in the motor industry. Contested Birmingham East in 1989 European election. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999. |
| 3. |  Anthea McIntyre Educated at Queens College, Harley Street. Partner in an information management consultancy. Hereford and Worcester county councillor 1977-1985, Herefordshire councillor since 2006. Contested Warley West 1983, Redditch 1997, Shrewsbury and Atcham 2001. |
| 4. |  Michael Burnett Educated at Warwick University. Chartered accountant. Contested West Midlands in 1999 and 2004 European elections. |
| 5. |  Mark Spelman Businessman. Married to Caroline Spelman, the MP for Meriden. |
| 6. | Dan Dalton |
| 1. | Liz Lynne Sitting MEP. Born 1948, Woking. Educated at Dorking County Grammar. Former actress and speech consultant. MP for Rochdale 1992-1997. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999. |
| 2. |  Phil Bennion Born Tamworth. Educated at Queen Elizabeth Grammar and Aberdeen University. Farmer and former lecturer. Lichfield councillor. Contested Lichfield 1997, 2001, Tamworth 2005. |
| 3. |  Susan Juned Born 1948. Educated at Birmingham University. Local government liasion, formerly worked as a scientist. Leader of Stratford on Avon council 1997-2000. Former Warwickshire councillor. Contested Stratford on Avon 1997, 2001, 2005. |
| 4. | Stephen Barber |
| 5. |  William Powell Teacher and farmer. Powys county councillor. |
| 6. |  Jonathan Bramall Educated at the University of Essex. Contested Dudley South 2005. |
| 1. | Mike Nattrass Sitting MEP. Born 1945, Leeds. Chartered surveyer. UKIP MEP for the West Midlands Region since 2004. Contested Dudley West by-election 1994 for the New Britain Party. Contested Solihull 1997 for the Referendum party. Contested Sutton Coldfield 2001, Stone 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008. Deputy leader of UKIP 2002-2006. |
| 2. |  Nikki Sinclaire Former UKIP party secretary. Contested Medway 2001, Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2005. Will contest Solihull at next election. |
| 3. |  Gillian Seymour |
| 4. |  Rustie Lee Born Jamacia. Celebrity TV chef. Contested Wyre Forest 2005. |
| 5. |  Malcolm Hurst Contested Staffordshire South 2005. |
| 6. | Jonathan Oakton Born 1958. Sales Director. Contested Birmingham Edgbaston 1997 for the Referendum Party, West Midlands Region in European Elections 1999, West Bromwich West by-election 2000 for UKIP |
| 1. |  Felicity Norman Part time teacher. Former Leominster councillor. Contested Leominster 2005. |
| 2. |  Peter Tinsley Management consultant. |
| 3. |  Chris Williams Educated at Oxford University. |
| 4. |  Ian Davidson Educated at Cambridge University. Research fellow and former teacher. |
| 5. |  Vicky Dunn |
| 6. |  Dave Wall Born Birmingham. |
| 1. |  Simon Darby.Born 1964, West Bromwich. Dudley councillor 2003-2004. Contested West Midlands in 2004 European elections. Contested Dudley North 1997 for the National Democrats, 2001, 2005 for the BNP. Deputy leader of the BNP. |
| 2. |  Alby Walker.Self employed joiner. Stoke on Trent councillor. |
| 3. |  Chris Turner.Ex-serviceman. |
| 4. |  Ken Griffiths. Transport manager. |
| 5. |  Elly Walker. Stoke on Trent councillor. |
| 6. |  Russell Green. Sandwell councillor. |
| 1. |  Dave Nellist Born 1952, Cleveland. Former Labour MP for Coventry South East between 1983 and 1992, he was deselected for the 1992 for his support of Militant. Contested Coventry South East 1992 as Independent Labour, Coventry South 1997 for the Socialist Party, Coventry North East 2001 for the Socialist Alliance, 2005 for the Socialist Party. Coventry councillor. |
| 2. | Dyal Singh Bagi President of the IWA GB |
| 3. |  Malcolm Gribbins Retired teacher |
| 4. | Joanne Stevenson General Secretary of the Young Communist League |
| 5. | Pete McLaren National Secretary of the Socialist Alliance |
| 6. | Andy Chaffer |
| 1. |  John Tyrrell Former Birmingham councillor for Labour. |
| 2. | Satbir Johal Contested West Bromwich East 2001. Contested West Midlands 1999 European elections. |
| 3. | Rajinder Claire Contested Perry Barr 2005. |
| 4. | Bhagwant Singh |
| 5. | Surinder Virdee Contested Birmingham Ladywood 2001. |
| 6. | Shangara Bhatoe |
| 1. | Geoffrey Coady Consultant. Former member of the Labour party. |
| 2. Graham Burton | 3. Jeremy Spencer |
| 4. Daid Bennett | 5. Colin Thompson |
| 1. | David Booth |
| 2. Samuel Nelson | 3. Ablodun Akiwumi |
| 4. Yeside Oguntoye | 5. Ade Raji |
| 6. Maxine Hargreaves |
| 1. |  David Ford Lane |
| 2. Frederick Bishop | 3. John Lane |
| 4. Graham Walker | 5. Michael Ellis |
| 6. Kim Elizabeth |
| 1. | Jimmy Millard |
| 2. Bridget Rose | 3. Zigi Davenport |
| 4. Andrew Bebbington | 5. David Black |
| 6. Matthew Lingard |
NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide
Whatever their merits, Libertas have no visibility or public awareness outside the very narrow confines of the political class on debate forums like these.
Michael Cashman was one in Eastenders.
Bit like Andrew Faulds (Smethwick/ Warley East 1964 – 1997) who was in the 1950′s Journay into Outer Space.
Sorry…..Smethwick/ Warley East 1966 (not 1964) – 1997
“Bit like Andrew Faulds”
Who of course was the Labour candidate in the 1963 Stratford on Avon by-election following the resignation of John Profumo. IHe managed to reduce the massive Tory majority to a little over 3,000 – the closest Labour have come then or since to capturing the seat.
I don’t understand why there are so few people intending to vote Green. They are the reasonable credible alternative.
Agree with Will, my votes will be split between the Greens and No2EU. Dave Nellist still has a strong base of support in the West Midlands, so could attract a strong showing. However, please make sure you use your vote to keep out the Facists.
Does Leon have more than one vote? How does one split votes in this election?
I have said before that trying to vote tactically in this system is a mugs game, but if your intention is to vote negatively in order to try and prevent the election of (presumably) the BNP, the way to do it is to vote for another party that has some chance of winning a seat. Obviusly neither the Greens nor No2EU come into this category
Were I an otherwise floating voter wishing to cast a “negative” vote to stop the BNP, I think I’d have difficulty knowing what to do here – certainly Greens and No2EU are out.
I would predict at this point that the allocation of seats is likely to go
1 – Conservative
2 – Labour
3 – Conservative
4 – Lib Dem
5 – Conservative
At which point I think the contenders for the final seat will be Labour, UKIP and the BNP (though I think the threshold in this region is liable to evade them).
So it’s Labour to help Neena Gill or UKIP to keep their one seat.
For those considering voting for the far left, it’s not much of a choice, but those would be my tips for a tactical anti-BNP vote here.
Apologies Pete, I must have been jet lagged after flying in from Oz. Quite right, like everyone else of voting age I only have one vote. What I should have said is I am split on whether to use that vote for the Greens or No2EU. Normally I would vote Labour, but I can’t bring myself to cast my vote for them this time round. I do believe that the Greens can make serious inroads in these elections, so that will be where my vote will be going, but good luck to No2EU, nice to see a broad(ish) coalition from the left challenging the anti democratic nature of the EU.
I had tended to agree with Benjamin’s last post but now am not so sure the third Conservative seat is guaranteed. The Tories were well short of 30% in 2004 and I dont think their vote will rise hugely now – perhaps a few points to roughly 30%. This means that any party with 10% or more is in contention for the fifth and sixth seat (I see Labour on about 20% therefore their second seat is in the equation) and I think both UKIP and the BNP could achieve this. The BNP is less likley as there is more of a ceiling to their support. They do have very strong areas within this region but have notably fallen back in some of their earlier strongholds such as Sandwell and Dudley, though this is to some extent comepnsated for by advances elsewhere (eg Nuneaton). The issue of differential turnout also impedes the BNP as areas like those met boeoughs in the West MIdlands conurbation and Stoke on trent do not have local elections and turnout (which is lower anyway in these areas) will be significantly lower than in the more rural shire areas where the BNP are not so strong. Apart from differntial turnout between different districts there will be some within in somewhere like Birmingham. I expect that turnout would be significantly lower in peripheral white working class areas where the BNP poll well than in the Asian dominated inner-city wards where postal voting fraud has been rife and where most of the dodgy votes will favour the Labour party (at least it is safe to assume they will not be cast for the BNP). On the other hand the muslim ‘leaders’ who organise these things may not want to pull out all the stops to save Neena Gill who I would guess is a Sikh.
Anyway while it may not be the likeliest scenario, with the Tories on around 30% and Labour on around 20% and with LDs, UKIP and BNP all getting around 10% or more, the possibility exists of a seat configuration of 2 Con 1 Lab 1 LD 1 UKIP 1 BNP.
That configuration is what I think is most likely at present. Neena Gill may lose her seat as a result of a few thousand Labour voters going over to the Greens because of the expenses scandal although the Greens have almost no chance of actually winning a seat. It would be ironic if the BNP win a seat because of that movement because obviously Labour/Green voters are at the opposite end of the political spectrum from the BNP.
I agree that the Tory vote probably won’t rise a huge amount because most of the places where the Conservative vote is very strong and also where turnout tends to be relatively high – such as south Warwickshire or Shropshire – are precisely the places where Tory voters might easily defect to UKIP for the Euro elections. Tory voters in Birmingham for example would be less likely to defect in that way but there are a lot less of them in the first place.
I can’t see the BNP getting a seat here in a 6 seater, whilst their overt support has increased on the doorsteps of late, it’s still not at the sort of level that would get a seat. The Greens may have the paper support of Respect, but the biraderi leaders who organise the Respect vote are not always on board. From the canvas I’ve seen, it looks like both the Conservatives and Lib Dems are at least holding their voteshare. Some BNP, some UKIP, a smidgen of Green and bog all Labour, but that’s just a couple of corners of SE Birmingham.
I think it looks like 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD, 1 UKIP and the sixth seat up for grabs between Con and Lab with UKIP as a possibility if they have surged.
The BNP only need to get 1 vote more than half the Labour vote to win a seat. So if Labour wins for example 20%, 10.1% would give the BNP a seat. I think that’s certainly a possibility.
There’s not really any chance of UKIP winning a second seat. I think we can discount that idea.
Labour’s number 5 candidate, Victoria Quinn has supplied her address as that of Albert Bore – the Labour leader on Birmingham Council. Labour’s number 1 and number 4 candidates have supplied London addresses!
I agree with you that it doesn’t look good to have candidates who don’t even live in the region in which they are standing.
Final Prediction:
Conservatives – 3
UKIP – 1
Labour – 1
Libdems – 1
The final seat will be tight, with UKIP and Labour both chasing a 2nd seat, but I think the Tories will edge it. I think UKIP may just push Labour into 3rd here. The BNP have a very slim chance of taking the third seat, but I think it is unlikely.
Neil, I don’t think the Tories will take 3 seats, which might give a chance to the BNP or Greens. This is my local region so I’m probably completely wrong!
My impression is that the Greens have run a good campaign in the West Midlands. I think they are in with a shout for the 6th seat. I doubt, given the national circumstances, that the Tories will manage 2 seats but I agree Labour will lose one of theirs. The Lib Dems will definitely keep their seat and UKIP should too (unless people couldn’t find them at the bottom of the ballot paper).
Meant to say I doubt the Tories will manage 3 seats, I think they’ll get 2.
This is one where I think it will be very close, so possibly 2 for the Conservatives instead of 3. If the Tories only manage 2 then I think either UKIP or the BNP will take the final seat, but Labour have an outside chance too. Can’t see the Greens making it, but I would bow to Andy’s local knowledge.
I am going for 2 Con 1 Lab 1 LD 1 UKIP 1 BNP
If the Greens do better than expected and win a few unexpected seats in regions like this it will probably be mostly down to the young and middle-aged female vote defecting in large numbers from Labour. I agree that the chance of a Green seat in the West Midlands is still only about 30-40%. It probably will be extremely tight between LD, BNP and Green in this region. UKIP may push Labour into third place if they really do poll only 17% nationwide.
If (When?) Lisbon comes into force during the term of this European parliament, will the results of this election be used to determine who gets the seventh seat for this region?
I’m going to predict 2 Con, 1 UKIP, 1 Lab, 1 Lib Dem, 1 BNP with the Conservatives taking the phantom seventh seat.
17% for Labour in West Midlands. Their current running total is 14.66% with just the North West and Scotland to come. Incredible.
Yet another poor Labour performance, falling behind the strongly performing UKIP, to whom they lose a seat. Despite a small increase in the Conservative share, they lost a seat. Otherwise, little change; the BNP ended up some way away from taking a seat.
They technically didnt lose a seat, because if there had been six seats in 2004 the Tories would only have won two then. If the seventh seat is awarded to this region it will go to the Conservatives so there is no change to their position really. The UKIP gain comes purely at Labour’s expense. There is some discussion that the seventh seat may go to London instead, although at the time the allocations were made the West Midlands qualified for the additional seat. It seems rather dubious to reallocate after the election. If London gets the extra seat it would go to Labour.
BNP had a disappointing night in both Midlands’ regions. I haven’t seen most of the detailed results yet but they must have had underwhelming results in places like Stoke-on-Trent and Sandwell. Interesting because they seemed to have done quite well in places like Nuneaton in the county council elections.
They did not do as well in Nuneaton as they had last year – for example they would have won Camp Hill which is identical to the borough ward if the results from 2008 had been repeated. They have also seen their support in Sandwell and Dudley fall back quite sharply compared with a few years ago.
English Democrats did very good for a first outing in the region. 32,000 votes and in the Telford and Wrekin area there would be another 25,000 next time.
English Democrats won’t do so well next time, I’ll make sure everyone knows that 43% of their candidates in the election just gone were ex-BNP members and it’s likely to be an even higher amount by the next election.