Alphabetical: A-D, E-M, N-S, T-Z
By region: North-East, North-West, Yorkshire, East Midlands, West Midlands, South-West, South-East, Eastern, London, Wales, Scotland
By party: Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cmyru, SNP, Other
Target Seats: Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat
Amber Valley
Ashfield
Bassetlaw
Bolsover
Boston and Skegness
Bosworth
Broxstowe
Charnwood
Chesterfield
Corby
Daventry
Derby North
Derby South
Derbyshire Dales
Derbyshire Mid
Derbyshire North East
Derbyshire South
Erewash
Gainsborough
Gedling
Grantham and Stamford
Harborough
High Peak
Kettering
Leicester East
Leicester South
Leicester West
Leicestershire North West
Leicestershire South
Lincoln
Loughborough
Louth and Horncastle
Mansfield
Newark
Northampton North
Northampton South
Northamptonshire South
Nottingham East
Nottingham North
Nottingham South
Rushcliffe
Rutland and Melton
Sherwood
Sleaford and North Hykeham
South Holland and The Deepings
Wellingborough
Interesting: you can only leave comments for the East Midlands. But this certainly could be useful, Anthony – we can discuss particular regional trends here without cluttering up a single thread.
This whole region has seen a long-term decline for Labour, masked by the good years since 1997: the delayed dividend of the miners’ strike in some ways, as the East Midlands was better able to cope with the turn away from coal, and trends like gentrication of mining villages were more promounced. Of course, the attachment of miners to the UDM helped.
Now I come to think of it, Robert Waller, the noted psephologist, once wrote a monograph on the mining industry in and around the Dukeries, with particular reference to the strength of “yellow unions” – those unions controlled by management in the coalfields. There have been some on the academic left who’ve argued that this provides an explanation for the strength of the UDM in areas like Nottinghamshire, and perhaps relative Conservative strength for mining areas too.
Yes this region has more than most been trending to the Conservatives over a long period since WW2, as Tangent says the effect was concelaed somewhat certainly in 1997 and 2001.
In the years before and after WW1, as well as there being a recogniseable North South divide in electoral terms, there was also an East West divide in the midlands and north – with the West Midlands and the North West being notably stronger for the Conservatives and the eastern regions (Yorkshire, the North East and this region) being much weaker and stronger for the Liberals and then Labour.
Wellingborough is but one example but that it is a Conservative seat in all but Labour landslides these days is an illustration of the wider electoral trends within the region. It was Labour held in the Tory landslide of 1924. 1970 and 1979 marked turning points when several seats that had been Labour since 1945 or earlier moved over decisively to the Conservatives (Bosworth, Loughborough, Derbyshire SE, Newark, Belper, Northampton).
The exception to the general regional trend is inevitably the major conurbations particulalry Nottingham and Leicester but even these have not swung so heavily away from the Conservatives as some of the big cities further North, and in any case Leicester was always a relatively weak city for the Conservatives even when they were strong in cities like LIverpool and Manchester.
There would appear therefore to be rich pickings in this region for the Conservatives at the next election – proportionately much more than in the regions further north and possible there could be more gains in actual numbers of seats than in all the three northern regions which togeher have more than three times as many seats.
I dont have any polling evidence to support it but my hunch is that this region will see a disproportionate swing to the Conservatives at the next election, assuming there is a significant national swing in their direction and the yield in terms of seats will be significant with traditionally Tory suburban seats such as Broxtowe and Gedling set to return to the fold and less traditional areas like Derbyshire S and Leicesteshire NW following on a larger than average swing. In the longer term there remains good potential in seats further down the list like Amber Valley, Bassetlaw and Sherwood.
Hmm… it’s a mistake, but now you point it out it is probably worth leaving open. I’m going to redo them all in time to be like the London Elections page, but till then.
The Chesterfield thread appears to have been closed, is this a permanent thing, or temporary, if temporary, how temporary.
I don’t really understand why, I would have thought there have been far more vitriolic outbursts than those seen on the thread, but that’s admin’s perorgative, I guess.
I agree with Toby.
That’s my fault for getting drawn into an argument with a certain Mr Senior. Shouldn’t have taken his bait.
Not your fault Kieran.
Both you and Toby have local knowledge of Chesterfield
but
best not to reply in such cases, unless there’s something specific you need to set the record straight over, for others to see.
You’re right Joe, it was the accusations of smearing and hype on my part that really got my goat.
I recognise that for a Lib Dem supporter the Chesterfield thread probably does have a bit of a lopsided look to it as there are regular posts from guys with local knowledge from Labour and the Tories, but no one from the Lib Dems, who after all do hold the parliamentary seat and control the council. There isn’t really much that can be done about that though.
As to how things are going in Chesterfield at the moment, my predictions on that thread that Labour could have a chance of retaking the seat were dependent upon there being some kind of revival in the party’s fortunes nationally. I am beginning to wonder though if such a revival is actually going to happen. History shows that the electorate have usually pretty much made up their minds this close to a GE. If Labour really are going to sink to below 30% in national vote share then they have no chance of retaking Chesterfield, almost irrespective of how many Tory voters who have hitherto voted tactically switch to supporting our candidate. If Labour were to ditch Brown for Johnson though they might still have a chance; I could see him going down well in Chesterfield. Maybe they’ve missed the optimum time for benefiting from switching leaders though. Very foolish.
I think they will bump up to the low 30s.
I know the Lib Dem supporters hate that prediction, but I think there is going to be a fairly intense 6-8 month campaign over spending cuts and how to handle them, and the polls actually do show a slight flickering – slight – in a two party battle.
I think Labour might well manage a few gains off the LDs but it’s probably more a case of holding what they have against them.
I hadn’t realised my final comment on the Chesterfield thread had actually been confirmed. I was hoping the argument might have ended of its own accord. With Labour on less than 30% and the LDs on about 18% in the opinion polls, one would expect Chesterfield to be held by the LDs. I don’t have any specialist knowledge of the area however so Kieran and Toby’s comments on the subject are welcome.
Indeed Andy, if the Chesterfield thread is preserved for posterity in it’s current state you have had the last word. Re the election in my hometown, you are correct. Labour’s vote has held up quite well in parts of Derbyshire in recent elections, but they really can’t afford to lose anything in Chesterfield, even if their route to victory is leakage of the Lib Dem vote to our candidate. At the moment it looks unlikely that their vote will not go down in Chesterfield by at least a few of percent in partial deference to a large national decline. That would leave them relying on something close to a statistical fluke in vote distribution between Lib Dem and Tory for them to take the seat.
However, if Toby gives it another crack at the election after next, when there may be some sort of Labour revival nationally, then it could be a different story. I believe Chesterfield Labour Party is a fundementally sound organisation, at the moment hamstrung by association with an unpopular Labour government. Once that millstone is removed from their necks I will be amazed if Labour do not regain Chesterfield at local and parliamentary level at some point over the next seven to ten years.
Labour could well regain Chesterfield council at the next lot of elections in 2011. Hopefully though the council will be NOC with myself and five other Tory colleagues holding the balance of power. Fingers firmly crossed!
Any chance of getting the Chesterfield thread unfrozen any time soon? There has been more bickering on Sunderland Central today than there ever was on dear old Chesterfield, notwithstanding my locking of horns with Mark Senior. Of course, it’s not my decision…
I agree.
It’s rather unfair on Kieran and Toby Perkins who have local knowledge and want to post there.
But I suppose a few people dared take on the Lib Dems.
Chesterfield is to be combined with Bolsover, Mansfield and Ashfield for the purposes of selecting a Tory candidate for each seat. As far as I am aware there is still no firm timetable though.
Interesting – a sort of City Seats Initiative even though these are separate communities across 2 counties!
I believe it is called the Coalfield Seats Initiative, or something like that. Presumably in deference to the fact that those four seats have very little in common other than being former coalfields, and having very small Tory memberships. I have no idea how many people we have in the other three seats, but Chesterfield’s membership is in the mid-50s.
Well, last time I believe 3 of the 4 candidates were from London, so hoping that some more local candidates get a chance
The two Nottinghamshire seats mentioned above actually have some semblance of a Tory voting tradition. Ashfield went Tory in 1977 by-election, while Mansfield very nearly became a Tory seat in 1987. Both seats still have an OK Tory vote (at parliamentary level anyway). At council level though the story is not good with, I think, two county councillors and no district councillors representing areas included in the four constituencies.
Mansfield did have a decent vote until 2005, when it slumped by 10%, in part due to the presence of an Independant candidate.
Although as you say Matt it would be good to have some local people in the running for any of the nominations, I like to think that we would not make the mistake of choosing a native of Mansfield to stand for Chesterfield and vice-versa. There was at one time a large amount of rivalry between the two towns based upon rivalry between the football teams representing the respective localities, and on resentment dating back to the miners strike. The latter had its origins in the decision of many Nottinghamshire miners to return to work during the strike.
The rivalry has to some extent dissipated in recent years due to memories of the strike receding and and the two football teams playing in different divisions for most of the past decade; with it must be emphasised the Spireites playing at the higher level of the two.
Amber Valley
Ashfield
Bassetlaw
Bolsover
Boston and Skegness
Bosworth
Broxstowe
Charnwood
Chesterfield
Corby
Daventry
Derby North
Derby South
Derbyshire Dales
Derbyshire Mid
Derbyshire North East
Derbyshire South
Erewash
Gainsborough
Gedling
Grantham and Stamford
Harborough
High Peak
Kettering
Leicester East
Leicester South
Leicester West
Leicestershire North West
Leicestershire South
Lincoln
Loughborough
Louth and Horncastle
Mansfield
Newark
Northampton North
Northampton South
Northamptonshire South
Nottingham East
Nottingham North
Nottingham South
Rushcliffe
Rutland and Melton
Sherwood
Sleaford and North Hykeham
South Holland and The Deepings
Wellingborough
Amber Valley LAB HOLD
Ashfield LAB HOLD
Bassetlaw LAB HOLD
Bolsover LAB HOLD
Boston and Skegness CON HOLD
Bosworth CON HOLD
Broxstowe CON GAIN
Charnwood CON HOLD
Chesterfield LAB GAIN
Corby CON GAIN
Daventry CON HOLD
Derby North CON GAIN
Derby South LAB HOLD
Derbyshire Dales CON HOLD
Derbyshire Mid CON GAIN/ HOLD
Derbyshire North East LAB HOLD
Derbyshire South CON GAIN
Erewash LAB HOLD
Gainsborough CON HOLD
Gedling LAB HOLD
Grantham and Stamford CON HOLD
Harborough LIB DEM GAIN
High Peak CON GAIN
Kettering CON HOLD
Leicester East LAB HOLD
Leicester South LAB HOLD
Leicester West LAB HOLD
Leicestershire North West CON GAIN
Leicestershire South CON HOLD
Lincoln LAB HOLD
Loughborough CON GAIN
Louth and Horncastle CON HOLD
Mansfield LAB HOLD
Newark CON HOLD
Northampton North CON GAIN
Northampton South CON HOLD
Northamptonshire South CON HOLD
Nottingham East LAB HOLD
Nottingham North LAB HOLD
Nottingham South LAB HOLD
Rushcliffe CON HOLD
Rutland and Melton CON HOLD
Sherwood LAB HOLD
Sleaford and North Hykeham CON HOLD
South Holland and The Deepings CON HOLD
Wellingborough CON HOLD
I don’t agree with Amber Valley, Gedling, Harborough, Lincoln.
(Also a slightly pedantic point: Broxtowe doesn’t have an “s” in it).
I agree with quite a lot of it.
I think Erewash, Amber Valley, and Bassetlaw could be Tory gains – but then they may not be.
I think Lincoln is very likely to be a Tory gain (i.e. no recount like in 1979, as more tightly drawn than in 2005.).
I’m not sure the Tories will make it in Derby North, but they could.
I disagree the Lib Dems will gain Harborough – although further ahead it could be a Solihull possibly.
Sherwood an outside Con chance aswell, but not most likely.
Isn’t Northamptonshire South CON GAIN rather than hold (if it comes about?)
Notional.
Yes it is. Well spotted, I missed that.
I assume Northampton South rather than Northamptonshire South (not much question about the Tories winning the latter).
I agree with Joe about the kind of seats that are in the ‘too close to call’ territory – Amber Valley, Erewash, Derby N, Bassetlaw, Sherwood. Gedling should certainly be a Tory gain but may be close too with a below average swing. Lincoln will be a easy Tory gain and Harborough isn’t going anywhere.
Chesterfield likley to be close too but i’d err on the side of LD hold at this time.
Thrasher & rallings usefully rank the target seats by each region. These will differe slightly from the target lists here because of some difference in the notional results.
The number in the first column is the national rank, that in the last column the % swing required
28 Corby 1.6%
34 Northampton South 1.9%
35 High Peak 1.9%
36 Loughborough 1.9%
42 Broxtowe 2.2%
53 Derbyshire South 2.7%
84 Northampton North 4.5%
89 Lincoln 4.7%
90 Leicestershire NW 4.8%
92 Gedling 4.8%
These seats should all fall to the Conservatives without a problem. As indicated Gedling could present some difficulties and Northampton North has complications with the LDs allegedly in contention but I think they will actually fall back further in third place and this should be a standard ‘ go with the tide’ seat as it has been since it was created in 1974.
Beyond these are the kind of seats which determine whether the Tories win a majority and the size of it. Notionally the Conservatives start with 210 seats so Amber Valley would give them a majority in parliament of 10 on UNS. There is then a big jump to Erewash which is starting to get into landlside territory (though Erewash (likewise Sherwood) is a more likley gain then many seats nationally which are higher up the list)
120 Amber Valley 6.3%
150 Erewash 7.8%
152 Sherwood 7.9%
154 Derby North 8.1%
174 Bassetlaw 9.0%
181 Nottingham South 9.6%
Nottingham South is not at all likely IMO and would be true landslide territory. Beyond that is Derbyshire NE (rank 207 swing 11.2%) and beyond that nothing
My guess is the Tories will win all 10 of the first line targets and 2 or 3 of the second line (say Amber Valley, Sherwood and Derby North) putting them on course for a comfortable but not huge majority of 1970 or 1979 proportions.
Obvioulsy the safety or otherwiseof seats is going to alter as the polls do.
What is interesting from this site is to glean where certain parties will outperform others relative to the national swing.
I expect the overall polling situation to be much better for Labour than it currently is, however even in the current situation I would expect Gedling to remain a Labour Hold, maybe more likely to be a hold than some further down the list, based on the activity in the local party and the popularity of Vernon Coaker, who whilst a very poor singer is an excellent MP.
All the signs are that we will do well in Chesterfield, but then I would say that wouldn’t I? 🙂
You are right of course Toby that what we concern ourselves with here is how seats will perform relative to the national swing – anybody can work out a uniform swing based on the polls at any given time and ‘predict’ the results in each constituency a la Electoral Calculus. I suggested early on in this thread that I felt this region was likely to show an above average swing from Labour to Conservtaive though I had no polling evidence to back that up. Subsequently there have been polls of marginals and regional polls etc which have supported that view.
You are correct that within this region there are certain seats which show signs of delivering a below average swing and I agree with both those seats you mention. Loughborough would seem to be another, whereas other seats (I would suggest Leices NW, Derbyshire South, Sherwood) will show a swing above both national and regional average.
I do think though that unless Labour achieves a substantial recovery between now and May (or March?) that the local factors which would suggest a relatively strong performance in such areas will not be enough to save Labour in Gedling nor to enable you to gain Chesterfield (though personally I hope you do)
I think this March idea is put out by journalists who want something new to write about.
I think the case for doing it is if the economy looks like it’s failed to recover over Xmas/Jan
and to avoid the QTr 1 GDP figures,
but I think it’ll be a double poll on May 6th.
I can picture Labour holding Gedling if they narrowed the gap into hung territory.
Interesting to re-visit these predictions in the light of more recent events.
I would still expect Gedling and Lincoln to be Labour holds, sources on the ground suggest Labour are increasingly confident there.
However rumours of the Lib Dems storming through to take Ashfield have come from both camps and should be taken seriously.
Similarly I am told that local Lib Dem sources have high hopes in Harborough and deep concerns about Chesterfield.
I also believe Erewash and Amber Valley could come into play for the Conservatives, I always thought AV would be close, but Liz Blackman’s decision to stand down will make Erewash very interesting too.
Labour have privately conceded Northampton South (long ago) and High Peak, but still cling to hope that they can hold on in Corby and Loughborough, though I would expect both to go blue.
My changes to my above predictions would therefore be:
Ashfield LD GAIN
Amber Valley CON GAIN
Erewash (could be toss of a coin) but I’ll go Lab Hold
“Similarly I am told that local Lib Dem sources have high hopes in Harborough and deep concerns about Chesterfield”.
Really? As a native of the latter town I am very interested to hear that. Would you care to expand on why you think Mr Holmes could be in trouble?
“Would you care to expand on why you think Mr Holmes could be in trouble?”
I don’t have any specific local knowledge, but I do have good contacts within both parties, and that seems to be the view.
I note with interest that both parties have apparently fought shy of calling a by election in Brimington ward that you would think that a confident party would relish, which maybe suggests that neither Labour nor Lib Dems are entirely confident about their position.
To my knowledge there is no reason why there should be a by-election in either of the two Brimington wards.
Honestly, can this site not spell the name of a constiuency correctly?
BROXTOWE! not Broxstowe.
The East Midlands is an exemplary region, election only members from the Conservatives and Labour, and entrenching the two party system.
I know Joe James B can agree with you on that.
I wonder if there is any possibility the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could form an electoral alliance or even a full merger, even if some dissidents form a rump Liberal Party or go over to Labour.
I can’t imagine why they would. It takes more to hold a merger together than just being “not Labour.”
Once we see AV brought in there will not even be an
electoral reason for it.
my guess at the nottinghamshire seats plan A the boundary commisson don,t cross county boundary
1.rushcliffe current wards + bingham east+west total voters 79632
2.bassetlaw unchanged voters 76741
3.broxtowe current wards + eastwood south 78437(turning this seat lab by about 50 votes)
4.ashfield-eastwood south + oakham+berry hill wards (these are based on mans new wards created in 2011) 74858
5.mansfield – oakham – berry hill + clipstone 79476
6.newark-bingham east and west + ollerton + boughton + edwinstone 77732
7.nottingham south + bilborough 77313
8.nottingham north – bilborough + hucknall wards + bestwood 77571
9.nottingham east+Netherfield and Colwick+carlton+carton hill+porchester 78904
10.sherwood 79264
of course there are other combos happy to hear others thoughts also i going to create a plan B if they do cross the boundary