Seats Changing Hands

There are 20 seats that, had they been fought upon the new boundaries in 2005, would theoretically been won by a different political party. These mainly favour the Conservative party, who would have won an extra 13 seats that are currently held by Labour or the Liberal Democrats while only losing 5 seats they actually won. Labour would have won 6 seats that are currently held by the Conservatives or Plaid Cymru, but would have lost 12 seats to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems would have won Oxford East on the new boundaries, but would have lost 2 seats they currently hold to the Conservatives.

In many cases the changes in these seats are actually very small indeed, but the seats happened to be very marginal in 2005 (for example, Sittingbourne and Sheppey or Portsmouth North).

Note that as with all of the calculations on this site, these are notional versions of what would have happened at the last election, not predictions of what will happen at the next election.

5 Conservative seats notionally gained by Labour:
Lancaster and Fleetwood (was Lancaster & Wyre)
Croydon Central
Milton Keynes North (was Milton Keynes North East)
Hammersmith (was Hammersmith & Fulham)
Northampton South

11 Labour seats notionally gained by the Conservatives:
Somerset North East (was Wansdyke)
Staffordshire Moorlands
Selby and Ainsty (was Selby)
Gillingham and Rainham (was Gillingham)
Portsmouth North
Thanet South
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Rochester and Strood (was Medway)
Wirral West
Ealing Central and Acton (was Ealing, Acton & Shepherd’s Bush)
Enfield North

1 Labour seat notionally gained by the Liberal Democrats:
Oxford East

2 Liberal Democrat seats notionally gained by the Conservatives:
Solihull
Somerton and Frome

1 Plaid Cymru seat notionally gained by Labour:
Arfon (was Caernarfon)