The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Ynys Mon

2010 Results:
Conservative: 7744 (22.48%)
Labour: 11490 (33.36%)
Liberal Democrat: 2592 (7.53%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.21%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.49%)
Christian: 163 (0.47%)
Independent: 2225 (6.46%)
Majority: 2461 (7.15%)

2005 Results:
Labour: 12278 (34.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 11036 (31.1%)
Independent: 5216 (14.7%)
Conservative: 3915 (11%)
Liberal Democrat: 2418 (6.8%)
Other: 599 (1.7%)
Majority: 1242 (3.5%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7653 (22.5%)
Labour: 11906 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 2772 (8.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 11106 (32.6%)
UKIP: 359 (1.1%)
Other: 222 (0.7%)
Majority: 800 (2.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 8569 (21.5%)
Labour: 13275 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 1537 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 15756 (39.5%)
Referendum: 793 (2%)
Majority: 2481 (6.2%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Albert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitAnthony Ridge-Newman (Conservative) Educated at Arrow Vale High School and Plymouth University. Runnymede councillor.
portraitAlbert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
portraitMatt Wood (Liberal Democrat) Born St Asaph. Educated at Denbigh High School and University of Glamorgan. Independent Financial Advisor.
portraitDylan Rees (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Former Police inspector, now senior homelessness officer for Ynys Mon council.
portraitElaine Gill (UKIP)
portraitDavid Owen (Christian Party)
portraitPeter Rogers (Independent) Born 1940, Wrexham. Educated at Prenton Secondary amd Cheshire School of agriculture. Farmer. Conservative Assembly member for North Wales 1999-2003, he resigned from the party after being placed 7th on the party list in 2003. Isle of Anglesey councillor since 2004. Contested Ynys Mon 2005, 2007 Welsh election.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 66829
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.4%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 18%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 17% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

284 Responses to “Ynys Mon”

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  1. Peter Rogers will undoubtedly beat the Tories into 4th here

  2. Dalek, Which planet are you currently visiting?

  3. I agree with Jasper

  4. What is the public point of view about the excessively subsidised Air service to Cardiff. I would guess that doesnt make the PC AM look very good.

  5. PC 13400
    Labour 12300
    Conservative 5000
    Ind 4000
    LD 1900
    UKIP 850

  6. If you look at the Daily post web site you may find the story in which Nick Bourne requested Peter Rogers not to stand in this election.

  7. To be honest, even if he didn’t stand, I don’t think the Conservatives would win here

  8. I think the Tories could do well here if Rogers didn’t stand could poll about 8000.

  9. But thats only really enough for about 20-25% of the vote, which is the sort of amount they were getting in 1997 and 2001

  10. 3 way marginal though isn’t it?

  11. At a stretch, but realistically, its a long way down the target list

  12. PC Gain= 3,000 maj

  13. PC Gain

    Maj 1000

  14. I’ve done some sums….the tories will gain 1500 or so more votes than predicted by Shaun Bennett and about 3000 more than predicted by Neily….how’s that for sticking one’s neck out!

  15. But what about the Independent Conservative?

  16. For once The Governor has a valid point. The Independent does disproportionately hurt the Conservatives. This remains a 2-horse race between Labour & Plaid Cymru, even though I suspect that one day the Conservatives may challenge here again.

  17. The independent will fall away this time around….Plaid will gain votes from every other party

  18. Anyone disregarding Peter Rogers here probably has little knowledge of this seat. While he won’t win, he *will* take loads of Tory votes and some Plaid votes – maybe enough to stop them winning again. I’d be hugely surprised if he got less votes than 2005. Just you watch.

  19. The latest from the Independent candidate, Peter Rogers:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/04/assassination-threats-old-photos-and.html

  20. Pingback: Revolutie liberala in Marea Britanie: LibDem 32%, Cons 31%, Lab 28% « ALIANTA DREPTEI

  21. PC maj 1,000

  22. Anyone disregarding Peter Rogers here probably has little knowledge of this seat. While he won’t win, he *will* take loads of Tory votes and some Plaid votes – maybe enough to stop them winning again. I’d be hugely surprised if he got less votes than 2005. Just you watch.

    Absolutely right. The Tories have zero chance here, a locally known candidate is essential and their strong local candidate dropped out in December; the new guy is bright and able but not at all local.

  23. Although sticking to what I said about Rogers, from what I understand his campaign has been more lacklustre than last time around (2007) and that will be of use to Plaid if its true.

    Although this is one seat where the Lib Dems are truly, completely irrelevent, if they snatch just a few hundred votes of Labour, as they may well do given the polls, particularly in Holyhead, I’m pretty certain Ynys Môn is going green this year. It’s still maybe too close to call, but Plaid Cymru are rightly favourites in the current climate.

  24. I find myself faced with a real dilemma. Previously a lifelong Labour supporter, I changed my allegiance to PC on moving to Wales 12 years ago, feeling disillusioned by New Labour/Blair, and impressed by PC’s policies. I still think PC have the best policies for Wales, which would also be good for the UK as a whole. But I REALLY don’t want a return to Tory government from Westminster. So should I vote tactically, and if so – for Labour in hopes that GB and Labour keep sufficient seats to form a coalition, or for PC in hopes that at least there will be one more MP who will not join a coalition with DC and the Conservatives and so perhaps help prevent him forming a government?

  25. Marianne Cook, I would recommend you vote for who you want to, not tactically. Vote Plaid.

  26. Saw Peter Rogers outside Morrison’s in Holyhead today. He seemed to be getting quite well received by shoppers.

    Had a bit of a chat with him and he tried to get me to drop voting for Plaid and to vote for him instead. He reckons only he can topple Albert Owen but personally I reckon only Plaid can he has to big a hill to climb I think..

  27. Albert Owen will win Ynys Mon. Lots of people are voting for HIM and not for Labour,

    So Marianne; the advice is if you don’t want the Tories and Cameron, vote for Albert on Anglesey.

  28. Marianne – The more Plaid MPs we have in Westminster, the bigger the voice for the people of Wales. PC is about community, grassroots; we need to protect our communities and most vulnerable in society.

  29. The Morose Fella – you are being too political…you obviously want Owen to win….can I have a better critique please…local canvass returns etc?

  30. Hywel:

    sorry if I am just stating the facts as I have seen them, that is not being political. Don’t know what you mean about canvas returns – I’m not a painter:))) just someone who cares about the island and wants someone who has presence and who is effective to represent us.

    that’s why a lot of people on Anglesey have already and will support Albert Owen.

  31. To Think Plaid:

    Well, I guess that’s why many people will vote for Albert Owen on Anglesey – because he cares about the local community.

    The 2 or 3 Plaid Cymru MP’s have no clout in Parliament and their man on telly said the other night in effect that they could be going into bed with the Conservatives.

    Suppose it’s true after all when Labour say “Vote Plaid, Get Cameron’s Tories”

    The only way to stop that is to vote for Albert Owen on Ynys Mon.

  32. The Morose Fella…..yes very good…pob lwc…..BUT this is an independent site…you try not to spout your views..its for independent discussion…

    ‘UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of elections and polls.’

  33. Plaid to gain but barely.

    Recession has hit hard.

  34. If Hywel thinks it will be close, I have to think that LAB HOLD is still the likeliest outcome. Having said that, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if I’m wrong.

  35. Barnaby I was really not expecting such last minute swingback …mainly due to fear of tories getting into UK

    Plaid really did not have a great campaign, I thought surely it would be better than Labour in west wales………

    But Labour finally got off sitting on their hands last minute

    Barnaby I commend your predictions I really need to go away for a long time this elections gave me one hell of a headache

  36. no problem. I got plenty wrong. Just not in North Wales!

    Of course I DID get Montgomery wrong, but that’s in Mid Wales!

  37. Labour did well to hold on, but I am amazed the Conservative vote has doubled here

  38. Effectively it returned to that of 2001 – before the Peter Rogers breakaway.

  39. Yes. Ostensibly the Conservatives are back in business here. Actually winning the seat however still looks a tall order.

  40. Labour has done well here compared to Aberconwy.

  41. Presumably this seat is going to have to include part of the mainland following the forthcoming boundary review, as it doesn’t enjoy the protected status wrongly granted to certain other island constituencies with small electorates.

  42. I assume it would straddle over Menia Bridge and the A5 to include Bangor.

    The 2005 Afron notional result suggested that Bangor was a Labour stronghold, but that was based on the town being part of Conwy (a Lab / Con contest).

    Within an PC/ Lab contest, Bangor does not seem as safe for Labour, however its addition will still boost the Labour majority but not beyond longshot marginal limits.

  43. Is the votes for each of the parties in this seat fairly evenly distributed or are much Labour stronger in Holyhead, as the are in Stornaway in the Western Isles?

  44. Would Labour gain this seat in next years assembly election from third place?

  45. No.

    Plaid stronger in assemby elections here than Westy.

  46. One of the best moments in the last 40 years or so for Labour supporters must have been at about 1am on the night of 7th June 2001. At about that time Labour gained Yns Mon from Plaid Cymru. At the exact same time the Conservatives hadn’t even held a single seat. Labour were on about 80 and the LDs 3.

  47. For everyone else though 2001 was an extremely dull and dire night to watch.
    I thought it possible that the Conservatives might at least have been able to make 20 or so gains, which Neil Kinnock managed in 1987. But it was a stay at home election which changed next to nothing.
    At least all the polls predicting that Labour would get a 200+ majority (almost all polls showed this between 1997-2001) were proved wrong.

  48. I see you’ve started uploading election 2001 on YouTube, Andy.

  49. People just weren’t ready for a Conservative government again, in 2001.

    They wanted to see how things went with Labour.

    But I found the collapse in turnout very worrying – in the wider democratic interest.

    That has been partly put right, but is still 6 or 7 points from where it really should be.

  50. Yes Andy I was at my constituency count when we heard Labour had taken Ynys Mon, which was a complete surprise to us at the time. By that time as you imply the overall result was clear, the early comfortable hold in Birmingham Edgbaston having calmed any nerves. It was a very low-key count; the Twickenham count was in the same hall in a partitioned-off area, and we knew Vince Cable’s wife Olympia was dying which was dreadfully sad. It was a stand-still election and the only excitement was when a former Tory councillor came in wearing a UKIP rosette; the Tory agent had no idea she’d joined that party.

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