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Ynys Mon

2010 Results:
Conservative: 7744 (22.48%)
Labour: 11490 (33.36%)
Liberal Democrat: 2592 (7.53%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.21%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.49%)
Christian: 163 (0.47%)
Independent: 2225 (6.46%)
Majority: 2461 (7.15%)

2005 Results:
Labour: 12278 (34.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 11036 (31.1%)
Independent: 5216 (14.7%)
Conservative: 3915 (11%)
Liberal Democrat: 2418 (6.8%)
Other: 599 (1.7%)
Majority: 1242 (3.5%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7653 (22.5%)
Labour: 11906 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 2772 (8.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 11106 (32.6%)
UKIP: 359 (1.1%)
Other: 222 (0.7%)
Majority: 800 (2.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 8569 (21.5%)
Labour: 13275 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 1537 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 15756 (39.5%)
Referendum: 793 (2%)
Majority: 2481 (6.2%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Albert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitAnthony Ridge-Newman (Conservative) Educated at Arrow Vale High School and Plymouth University. Runnymede councillor.
portraitAlbert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
portraitMatt Wood (Liberal Democrat) Born St Asaph. Educated at Denbigh High School and University of Glamorgan. Independent Financial Advisor.
portraitDylan Rees (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Former Police inspector, now senior homelessness officer for Ynys Mon council.
portraitElaine Gill (UKIP)
portraitDavid Owen (Christian Party)
portraitPeter Rogers (Independent) Born 1940, Wrexham. Educated at Prenton Secondary amd Cheshire School of agriculture. Farmer. Conservative Assembly member for North Wales 1999-2003, he resigned from the party after being placed 7th on the party list in 2003. Isle of Anglesey councillor since 2004. Contested Ynys Mon 2005, 2007 Welsh election.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 66829
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.4%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 18%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 17% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

284 Responses to “Ynys Mon”

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  1. It looks to me like the figures for those seats are the 2005 ones rather than projections – I think the article was only concerend with projecting the result for this constituency. Interesting analysis nonetheless.

    Barnaby. Indeed it must have been Sussex rather than Surrey then. I was recalling Robert Waller’s take on how someone with no local connections was able to come from far behind to win the seat. The Conservative share increased by 15% from October 1974 to 1979. As I said I dont rate the Tories’ chances of winning here remotely, but there can be too much emphasis on the extent to which people vote for the person rather than the party and that is true even in a seat like this.

  2. Hi Neil Turner

    ” I believe the projections for seats such as Delyn and Vale of Clwyd to be way off the park.” – as Pete Whitehead also commented, the figures for Delyn and Vale of Clwyd are the actual General Election results from 2005. I only made a 2010 prediction for the Ynys Mon constituency.

  3. It would be interesting to see what the projections would be for other seats. The poll for the whole of Wales shows a Labour to Conservative swing in the region of 9% which would put seats like Delyn and Clywd South into ‘too close to call’ kind of territory. It does appear though that the swing in North Wales is slightly lower. If that is the case it follows that the swing is higher in other parts of Wales which could make it close in seats like Cardiff South and Cardiff West where a larger swing is needed. Where can one find the regional breakdowns for this poll?

  4. Pete – you can find the regional breakdowns for the latest YouGov poll here:

    http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ITV%20Wales_13-Jan-2010.pdf

  5. I think the Druid analysis is the closest to what will be the outcome on Ynys Mon. What the Plaid commentators on this thread fail to understand is that in this seat of all seats, people focus more on the individual rather than party colour.
    It is a very strange constituency and doesn’t conform to the uniform swing mechanism.

    odds for Lab are 9/4: very, very generous indeed!

  6. Thanks for the link Druid. Looking at those regional figures, clearly it wasnt Cardiff where the Tories were doing better. Those figures for South Wales East and South Wales West beggar belief though. Obviously regional sub-samples have to be taken with a huge dose of salt

  7. Interesting also that the Tory share was higher amongst C2DE social groups than amongst ABC1s and that the Labour lead was almost the same in both categories. (Labour and Tory both scored higher amongst the C2DE group with LDs and Plaid doing better amongst ABC1s)

  8. Very good analysis Pete – I’ve taken the liberty of including some of your comments in a new post looking at the most important issues for North Wales residents:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-most-worries-north-wales-voters.html

  9. For those interested, here’s an analysis of the Ynys Mon front runner, PC’s Dylan Rees:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/plaids-dylan-rees-anointed-one.html

  10. There is an interesting critique of the Conservative candidate here
    http://cambriapolitico.com/2010/01/its-time-to-blow-away-this-ynys-mon-blow-in/comment-page-1/

    including a response from him, where he clearly deomstartes that he is geographically challenged.

  11. I think that everyone needs to just give the guy a break. It is never easy at the best of times to run for political office and he is risking a lot, including his reputation, by trying really hard to make a difference to Anglesy.

    As a resident I am keen to find out more about him and when he knocks on my door I’ll give him a grilling like I would with any other candidate. Then I will make my mind up by that.

    That is how votes should be decided. By reading the manifesto and listening and talking to the candidates.

    Are you saying that he shouldn’t run because he isn’t Welsh? Do you need to be Welsh to care about Wales? Arguably it’s a distinct advantage to not be a local!

  12. To be fair – I am not saying dont vote for him because he is Welsh – I am just saying he is geographically challenged – He is the one who said Redditch is near Wales and Pontycymmer is near the Rhondda.

    Why did he not simply say he didnt know the place well but he had the best general experience blah blah blah.

  13. Penndu,

    If you live in Scotland, or Norfolk, Redditch IS near Wales.

    As for Pontycymmer – 5m as the crow flies is close enough when you are a hundred miles away or more. Okay, it is more than twice as long by road, but would you take someone from Cardiff to task for saying Conwy is near Ynys Mon ?

  14. Thank you for the mention on your site Druid.
    On that subject you said “Margaret Thatcher also famously commanded more support amongst C2DEs than ABC1s”. I have been trying to find some statistics from the 1980s elections, unsuccessfully, but I am certain that this was not the case. The Conservatives still enjoyed a very large lead amongst ABC1s at that time while probably being behind Labour amongst C2DEs (except possibly in 1983). It was notable that Margaret Thatcher did manage to attract a significant amount of support amongst the latter group but it was certainly not more than amongst ABC1s. The differential changed from 1997 when Tony Blair effected the converse achievement of attracting large scale support amongst ABC1s.
    There has been much evidence since 1997 that Labour has shed more support amongst C2DEs than amongst ABC1s, particularly the traditional white working class. This has in general been more marked in parts of southern England though and even then the Conservative lead in opinion polls will generally have remained higher amongst the higher social groups. I should repeat that a regional sub-sample should be treated with many caveats, but I think its significant nonetheless that according to this poll there is no differential between the upper and lower social groupings and I find this more surprising in Wales than I would if it were England

  15. Paul,

    It was he who brought geography into this so will have to put up with the flak that it generates. As I said, if he had just said he was the best candidate that would have been that. As it is his candidature has made a possible tory gain into a battle for 3rd or 4th place.

  16. Pete – thanks for that info. I don’t know why but I thought I had read something a while ago which said Thatcher initially had more C2DE supporters than ABC1s…. I appreciate you taking a look.

  17. The construction of Wylfa B will surely be the defining election issue on Ynys Mon – here’s are review of how each party stands with regards to Nuclear Power and Wylfa B:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/wylfa-to-b-or-not-to-b_31.html

    The ukpollingreport posters are a very knowledgeable lot so your comments are most welcome.

  18. An interesting analysis, Druid but with one significant point missed. If either a Labour or Tory government give the go-ahead for a new nuclear plant under their declared policy it will be a worldwide first.
    No-one has ever managed to fund the construction of a nuclear power plant anywhere on Earth without public subsidy.

  19. Benjamin – so that would mean in your opinion that under the current stated policies of both Labour and the Conservatives, Wylfa B will never get the go ahead?

  20. Ladbrokes’ odds for this seat:

    Plaid Cymru 1/3
    Labour 5/2
    Peter Rogers 16/1
    Cons 16/1
    Lib Dems 100/1

  21. Those odds look about right to me – with Peter Rogers beating the Tories into 4th place – in what should be a winnable seat for them.

  22. Peter Rogers has been hospitalised for a heart op. More here:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/02/peter-rogers-in-hospital.html

  23. Here’s a translation. Sorry but I’ve only just seen your post and Vaughan Roderick’s post has been overtaken a bit by events

    “A busy weekend ahead of me. I have “Dau o’r Bae” political discussion programme on Radio Cymru) and the podcast to finish in Cardiff before rushing off to the Welsh Liberal Democrat Conference in Swansea.

    Perhaps it’s thinking of that conference that has made me post about reform of the voting system. After all it’s hard to discuss politics with the yellow party without PR raising its head sooner or later.
    It wasn’t Proportional represntation that Gordon Brown offered in his speech on the constitution at the start of the week. Instead the PM proposed a referendum on introducing the “alternative vote” . “Pleidlais amgen” is the right translation by the way but note that “alternative” is the meaning of “amgen” in this context. Whether it equates to the other meaning of “amgen, i.e “better” is another matter.
    The first thing to say is that using the alternative vote is unlikely to produce a proportional parliament. For this reason the Liberal Democrats may abstain in the parliamentary vote next week. That would be courageous. After all the party would benefit from an altrnative vote system ac there is a risk that failing to support a referendum send a confusing message to voters.
    The same is true of the vote on a referendum in the assembly by the way. With the votes in the Bay and Westminster on the same day the party will have to thinkvery carefully about the consequences of its decisions. Explaining why the party had prevented voters from having thier say on more devolution and electoral reform could be a bit of a “hard sell” for a party that has been chirruping aobut these policies for decades.
    To returnt o the alternative vote itself, there is more than one version of the system. The essence of each of course is that candidates are ranked according to preference and that the selections of supporters of unsuccesful candidates are redistributed until a candidates gets 50%+1 of the votes.
    In some systems votes mark every candida. In other systems a limited number have to be numbered. Only second preferences are counted when electing the Mayor of London, for example
    If this process is adopted one of the most important choices will be to decide whether or not to permit people to vote “above the line” which is the process that is used in Australia. There voters can either rank their choices or vote for their first choice only thereby allowing that candidate to redistribute the votes. In countries that use this system most voters leave this task to the candidates.
    This process could have very odd efects. Let’s take the 2005 result in Ynys Môn as an example and assume that all voters have voted “above the line”. This was the result:
    Labour 34.6%
    Plaid Cymru 31.1%
    Peter Rogers 14.7%
    Conservatives 11.0%
    Lib. Dem. 6.8%
    UKIP 1.0%
    Legalise Cannabis 0.7%
    Let us guess for a moment what would happen if the Liberal Democrats, UKIP ans Legalise Cannabis gave their support to Labour while the Conservatives sided with Plaid Cymru. This would give the following result:

    Labour 43.1%
    Plaid Cymru 42.15%
    Peter Rogers 14.7%
    Who would represent? Albert Owen or Eurig Wyn? That would be a matter for Peter Rogers alone! There would be an “alternative vote” on the island and Peter Rogers would get to cast it. Would the politicians or voters of Anglesey be willing to accept that?

  24. The Lib Dems have selected Matt Wood here

  25. ….poor fella. Surely no seat won by the Liberals since WWII has seen such a precipitous decline for them.

  26. There was a special feature on Ynys Mon on the BBC’s Politics Show on Sunday. The big news is that Peter Rogers is recovering and will stand in the election. More here:
    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/02/anglesey-special-feature-on-bbc.html

  27. New YouGov Wales voting intention poll out. I’ve crunched the numbers for Ynys Mon here:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/03/new-poll-labours-albert-owen-to-retain.html

  28. I heard Gordon Brown talking about Basra port today – lots of parallels with Wylfa B.

  29. Wolf – how so?

  30. Just read Druids link and its laughable. Plaid are up across Wales compared to the January poll the “drop” of ten points is almost certainly down to sampling given only 250 people polled.

    The pensions comments i s just silly. Our pledge costs just £2.5billion and there is unpaid tax creits of £5 billion every year….

  31. Cymrumark – I think I made the point myself that with only 250 people polled in North Wales the results should be treated with caution.

    Regarding pensions – just because you think they are plausible doesn’t mean that everyone else does. Also as Plaid Cymru have themselves rowed back from the original proposal by saying they would only increase pensions for over 80s suggests that Plaid too realised they had made a boo-boo. Anyway, I have explained the reasons why I think the pensions pledge was foolish politics here: http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/ieuan-wyn-jones-promises-free-unicorn.html

  32. Ynys Mon is a very difficult seat to predict this time – by all rights Labour shouldn’t retain it, but Plaid Cymru have *again* selected a candidate that simply doesn’t suit the seat. This is the third time in a row PC has selected a weak candidate – I don’t know what that says about the strength of the party on the island.

    If it weren’t for Peter Rogers the Tories might to well here although I doubt they would win this time with or without him. Needless to say, PR’s candidacy has completely spoiled their chances, although PR doesn’t have a chance of becoming MP himself.

    It has been said that the problem with Ynys Mon is that it’s easier to say who will lose that who will win – on balance Labour are more likely to lose, but an increased Labour majority isn’t out of the question either!

    There’s no smart money here – although you’d have to place Plaid Cymru as favourites.

  33. ‘Ynys Mon is a very difficult seat to predict this time’

    Were Peter Rogers not running it would be even tighter – as the Tories would be in with a ‘shout’ – they did afterall hold the seat in the 1980s being represented by Keith Best, who I don’t think is even a Tory nowadays

    You would have expected Plaid to have selected a local candidate but you’d still fancy them to take the seat

  34. Keith Best has been prominent at Conservative Action for Electoral Reform events in recent years. I’ve not heard anything about him leaving the party.

  35. HIs role with the Immigration Advisory Service would appear to be at odds with the supposed aims of the Conservative party to end an open-door immigartion policy

  36. Could be an intersting one for several reasons:

    Firstly, the Tories have shot themselves on the foot with a candidate with no obvious connection to Wales nevermind Anglesey.

    On the Island Plaid have blamed Peter Rogers for depriving them of the seat at the last two elections – suggesting Jaspers comments on weak candidates are spot on.

    Also, there are alot of students in the Menai Bridge area who will nodoubt not be too happy with the Plaid U-turn on University tutition fees – and they will be around on May 6th.

    Albert Owen has made a number of rather silly press comments – not least backing a call from an English MP to incorporate the Welsh dragon in the Union Jack!

    … and this only really leaves Peter Rogers. Still prominent in the local press, and untouched by scandal?

    Could we see an Independent gain here?

  37. No we couldn’t. It’ll be either Labour or Plaid Cymru, as you’re surely well aware.

  38. Barnaby, Your optimism amazes me.

  39. It is a five horse race here.

  40. “It is a five horse race here.”

    What exactly is Smokey smoking!!!!

  41. I only made that post knowing that Smokey would get hot under the collar. :)

    Don’t you actually read the polls? Even the Wales-wide ones? I do, and I base my predictions on them. Not everywhere can be a special case, you know – they wouldn’t be special then! I stick to what I said – close PC – Lab battle, as it has been in the last 3 elections. Close between Rogers & the Tories for 3rd. LDs nowhere. Sorry Smokey there are limits even to what your beloved LDs can achieve.

  42. The Lib Dems hope that Peter Hain will come to this Constituency to support the Labour candidate.

  43. For what reason? They think it will help them (the LDs) win?

  44. For what reason is that?

    Does anyone know when the hustings are scheduled for Ynys Mon?

  45. Ynys Mon is a strange one. Most likely Plaid will gain from what I hear, but I also read since the 1980s the island welsh speaking population has been diluted dramatically by incomers from England and elsewhere. As someone not totally fluent in welsh I don’t care if these are controversial if its the truth. However the claim is most people who vote Plaid are not welsh speakers lol ;)..confused .com :)

  46. The swing from Lab to Con will be enough for PC to gain this seat without increasing their vote -

    Plaid Cymru: 14000
    Labour: 12000
    Conservative: 6000
    Liberal Democrat: 2500
    Other: 1000
    Majority: 2000

  47. At this rate, Labour may lose more than ten seats in Wales.

  48. Could be a Conservative gain?

  49. How many ordinary working class people use the subsidised Air Service?

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