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Ynys Mon

2010 Results:
Conservative: 7744 (22.48%)
Labour: 11490 (33.36%)
Liberal Democrat: 2592 (7.53%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.21%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.49%)
Christian: 163 (0.47%)
Independent: 2225 (6.46%)
Majority: 2461 (7.15%)

2005 Results:
Labour: 12278 (34.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 11036 (31.1%)
Independent: 5216 (14.7%)
Conservative: 3915 (11%)
Liberal Democrat: 2418 (6.8%)
Other: 599 (1.7%)
Majority: 1242 (3.5%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7653 (22.5%)
Labour: 11906 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 2772 (8.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 11106 (32.6%)
UKIP: 359 (1.1%)
Other: 222 (0.7%)
Majority: 800 (2.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 8569 (21.5%)
Labour: 13275 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 1537 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 15756 (39.5%)
Referendum: 793 (2%)
Majority: 2481 (6.2%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Albert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitAnthony Ridge-Newman (Conservative) Educated at Arrow Vale High School and Plymouth University. Runnymede councillor.
portraitAlbert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
portraitMatt Wood (Liberal Democrat) Born St Asaph. Educated at Denbigh High School and University of Glamorgan. Independent Financial Advisor.
portraitDylan Rees (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Former Police inspector, now senior homelessness officer for Ynys Mon council.
portraitElaine Gill (UKIP)
portraitDavid Owen (Christian Party)
portraitPeter Rogers (Independent) Born 1940, Wrexham. Educated at Prenton Secondary amd Cheshire School of agriculture. Farmer. Conservative Assembly member for North Wales 1999-2003, he resigned from the party after being placed 7th on the party list in 2003. Isle of Anglesey councillor since 2004. Contested Ynys Mon 2005, 2007 Welsh election.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 66829
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.4%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 18%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 17% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

284 Responses to “Ynys Mon”

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  1. The To Bach accent is a pronunciation guide showing a long vowel and so indicates that the name of the island sounds more like “mourn” than “hoots mon!”

    I don’t know whether it originally denoted a missing S though.

  2. No- the circumflex does not denote a missing ‘s’. In fact the mark has the opposite meanings in Welsh and English. As stated, the circumflex lengthens the vowel in Welsh but shortens it in French.

    Personally, I would prefer this seat to be called Sir Fôn, as that is the name the vast majority of Welsh speakers would use for it and practically everyone on the island. The difference being Sir Fôn means the county of Anglesey rather than Yns Môn, which means the island of Anglesey (therefore technically not including Holyhead, which is on Holy Island or Ynys Cybi (take your linguistic pick).

    It’s a technicality and not very important but worth mentioning I suppose.

  3. Those of us who like to see Britain’s native languages in use should probably just take heart from the fact it’s not called Anglesea or Beaumaris & Dublin Ferry

  4. PC gain? I think it is more likely that the Tory vote will surge past Plaid, especially if Peter Rogers decides not to stand.

    Tories have a good chance here, as the Plaid candidate is considered weak.

  5. Anyone called ‘Trefor’ instead of ‘Trevor’ must have a chance in Ynys Mon!

  6. Euro Result here:

    Plaid 5813 34.8%
    Tory 3553 21.3%
    LAb 2148 12.9%
    UKIP 2071 12.4%
    LibD 974 5.8%
    BNP 763 4.6%
    Green 712 4.6%
    Others 664 3.6%

    An extremely low Labour outcome – even in these circumstances.

  7. I think this will be a Plaid gain,

    Pl C 24,359
    *Lab 9,037
    C 5,012
    LD 1,405
    UKIP 919

    Pl C maj 15,322
    Pl C gain from Lab

  8. It will be a PC gain but not by that majority.

    And if the Indpendent (a former leading Conservative) doesn’t stand at the next election the Conservatives could well reach 10,000 votes.

  9. That majority was a joke, but I think it will be a PC gain.

  10. I think I read somewhere that Peter Rodgers is standing again – although I can’t find a reference for the life of me.

  11. So his feud with the Conservatives continues then?

    If they all grew up there might be a repeat of 1979 here.

  12. Latest news:

    Peter Rogers will stand so the Tories will be dead in the water again.

    Another independent is standing, a councillor from Benllech.

    A very interesting seat now and every chance that Albert Owen will hold it, as the Plaid candidate is considered very weak.

  13. Teisen – the Labour vote in the Euros was extremely low – 12.9% – it would require a big change in mood for LAbour to win…..however I appreciate that this is Ynys Môn where historically the incumbent does not lose….

  14. ladbrokes:

    PC 1/3
    Lab 9/4
    Con 16/1
    LD 100/1

  15. Odds about right Shadsy….but a very strange seat – I’m not betting…

  16. “Odds about right Shadsy….but a very strange seat – I’m not betting…”

    Yes odds are based on national trends and this seat is like the Western Isles, and can buck national trends.

  17. Islands almost always have their own culture, often consciously in opposition to “mainland” (or other island) trends. I am sure this is what causes these sorts of results. Orkney and Shetland – long term Liberal / Lib Dem hold (way before seats in the North of Scotland started to move in that direction. Isle of Wight similar – and often since those days, when several Hants seats are now Lib Dem or close, been Tory again!

  18. Tory candidate now withdrawn. Bit late in the day…

  19. this is a big boost to Labour. I think Shadsy will want to change those oods.

    Lab 9/4 v good odds, get them before they shorten!!

  20. I don’t see how its a boost to Labour, it probably won’t affect their vote at all – however it’s certainly a boost to Peter Rodgers, and possibly Plaid Cymru – the Plaid vote on Ynys Môn is more conservative than on much of the mainland.

    A lot depends here on the turnout in the Holyhead area. If that is low, as has been the trend of the Labour vote over the last few years, Plaid will win here.

    If Rogers wasn’t standing, however, this would be a very tight three-way race between Labour, Plaid and the Tories – in such a situation I might even plump for the Tories.

    Plaid’s main problem is that they have a weak candidate – whereas Albert Owen is a strong one.

  21. Plaid Cymru: 11500
    Labour:10500
    Conservative: 10000
    Liberal Democrat: 4500
    Majority: 1000

  22. Peter – Indepemdent Rogers will certainly get 5000 or so.

  23. Labour 10700
    Plaid 10300
    Inde Rogers 8000
    Conservative 3000
    Lib Dem 1000

    Majority: 400

  24. PC Gain for sure.

  25. We thought that last time though and it didn’t turn out that way. I agree it seems the most likely outcome at the moment, however.

  26. Albert Owen seems like a popular MP. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hold on again.

  27. I’d normally be loath to comment on this seat but two things worth noting:

    1) The Labour Euro vote was 12.9% – astonishingly low.
    2) Last week’s ONS GVA report showed Ynys Mon as the poorest NUTS3 area in the whole of the UK (including NI)

    Albert needs a miracle I suggest.

  28. It was a predicted PC gain last time and yet Albert Owen’s majority increased. It seems he has a strong personal vote. This was one of few areas where Labour gained seats at the 2008 local elections so Labour may be more organised than people give credit for. Owen’s base is Holyhead which has long been regarded as the key to winning this seat. He may however be a victim of the wider tide against Labour.

    Peter Rogers said last time that his sole purpose in standing was to prevent Plaid from winning. This was someting to do, I think, with splitting the farming vote, although it undoubtedly affects the Conservative vote as well

  29. Albert Owen has campaigned effectively for a new nuclear plant at Wylfa and the majority of the island are for a new station here.

    There is a tradition that the island never votes against the incumbent and this will continue. As for the Plaid Cymru candidate, well, who is he?

    He should be careful, he might get blown over by one of the strong gusts on the island. No impact, no presence, no voice, no good!

    frankly, he would be a disaster for Ynys Mon

  30. We probably do need more nuclear power, although I am unconvinced the industry has yet made it’s case on costs.

    I am interested in the prediction above. Don Alberto sounds like he has local knowledge, and no result is certain, but I think Plaid Cymru should score a convincing victory here, even if it’s a bit overblown, to coin a phrase.

  31. It sounds as if Don Alberto is either Albert himself, or someone very closely linked. Perhaps you could confirm or deny, Don?

    In which case his post may well contain a fair bit of the old astroturf – or wishful thinking at the very least!

  32. Tim13; You don’t know the island and its culture if you think the Plaid bloke is going to win. On the island as always, voters look far more at the candidate and not the party.

    Plaid will get a lower share of the vote than last time, just you wait and see:)

    Remeber even Plaid people don’t want this bloke !

  33. My guess is that Albert Owen will hold on again, maybe even with an increased majority.

  34. “Remeber even Plaid people don’t want this bloke !”

    Which Plaid people would they be?

  35. Tim13,

    I’m a former Plaid voter and know the seat; my views based on talking to people on the island.

    Perhaps Andy Stidwill is right, an increased Lab majority; rather than a smaller one as i predicted.

  36. The Conservative collapse is dramatic here. Is it probably the case that almost all of the Independent vote seen here in 2005 was previously Tory?

  37. yes, and some Plaid votes went to the Ind too.

  38. The Conservatives have selected Anthony Ridge-Newman, a Runnymede councillor

  39. That’s a shame for the Conservatives really. It’s seat they could win medium to long term but they would need a local candidate and a better run in to the election.

    The Tories have other fish to fry in the north so perhaps this isn’t on their radar

  40. A strange Tory choice. A double barrelled foreigner will have a few barriers to climb here.

  41. What are the Ind PPC’s chances here? 15% of the vote at the first attempt for an Ind PPC is very impressive. Did he take any local Tory Association members with him?

  42. Lancs Observer,

    The Ind PPC- Peter Rogers- has big following, and he will take votes from both Plaid and Tories. He is fighting for 2nd place with Plaid.

  43. I agree that Peter Rogers will take votes from Conservatives and Plaid – but mostly Conservatives.

    But to say that he is fighting for second place with Plaid is farcical. Albert Owen is DOOMED!!!

  44. On balance Rogers’s candidature is good news for Plaid as now there is no prospect of a Tory challenge and it’s only Plaid who can beat Labour.

  45. Not that I think the Tories have any real chance here (and didnt before they selected) but it’s worth remembering that the only Conservative elected here in living memory was a councillor from Surrey

  46. FWIW, I think that the result here will be:

    Plaid 35%
    Independent 20%
    Labour 20%
    Cons 10%
    LD 10%

    Yes – Labour to be narrowly beaten into 3rd place by Independent.

  47. Actually Pete, Keith Best was a councillor in Brighton, not Surrey. I know this because he represented the ward where I voted in 1983, only a few years before I lved there.

  48. On the theme of the tories choosing candidates with double barrelled surnames, maybe the following would be more suitable;

    Lloyd-Williams
    Gethin-Jones
    Morgan-Evans
    Fychan-Davies

    I suspect that Plaid might run away with this seat at the next GE.

  49. Based on the North Wales regional data of the November YouGov Wales poll, I’ve computed how the 2010 election result in Ynys Mon could look. Take a look here: http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/some-electoral-arithmetic-for-ynys-mon.html

    The Druid

  50. Hi Druid

    I have read through the article and unless I have mis-understood, I believe the projections for seats such as Delyn and Vale of Clwyd to be way off the park.

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