Ynys Mon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7744 (22.48%)
Labour: 11490 (33.36%)
Liberal Democrat: 2592 (7.53%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.21%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.49%)
Christian: 163 (0.47%)
Independent: 2225 (6.46%)
Majority: 2461 (7.15%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 12278 (34.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 11036 (31.1%)
Independent: 5216 (14.7%)
Conservative: 3915 (11%)
Liberal Democrat: 2418 (6.8%)
Other: 599 (1.7%)
Majority: 1242 (3.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7653 (22.5%)
Labour: 11906 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 2772 (8.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 11106 (32.6%)
UKIP: 359 (1.1%)
Other: 222 (0.7%)
Majority: 800 (2.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8569 (21.5%)
Labour: 13275 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 1537 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 15756 (39.5%)
Referendum: 793 (2%)
Majority: 2481 (6.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Albert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Anthony Ridge-Newman (Conservative) Educated at Arrow Vale High School and Plymouth University. Runnymede councillor. Albert Owen(Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. MP for Ynys Mon since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Matt Wood (Liberal Democrat) Born St Asaph. Educated at Denbigh High School and University of Glamorgan. Independent Financial Advisor.
Dylan Rees (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Former Police inspector, now senior homelessness officer for Ynys Mon council. 
Elaine Gill (UKIP) David Owen (Christian Party) 
Peter Rogers (Independent) Born 1940, Wrexham. Educated at Prenton Secondary amd Cheshire School of agriculture. Farmer. Conservative Assembly member for North Wales 1999-2003, he resigned from the party after being placed 7th on the party list in 2003. Isle of Anglesey councillor since 2004. Contested Ynys Mon 2005, 2007 Welsh election. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 66829
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.4%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 18%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 17% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.4%
It’s funny that Anglesey has always been regarded as quite a wealthy part of North Wales (ouitside holyheade obviously) and yet only once in the last 200 years have they elected a Tory MP – Keith Best from 1979-1987 – who many people who lived in the seat at the time regard(ed) as the best MP they ever had
The Tories fared better in seats like Delyn, which have far more working class voters
If Ynys Mon was in England this would be a safe Tory seat. It just goes to show that politics in Scotland & Wales differ from England in terms of demographics and political preferences. Look at East Renfrewshire in Scotland as another example of this divide.
The seat is wealthy outside Holyhead?
Statistics such as 20% without central heating / private bathroom had led me to believe otherwise.
Yeah, I have to say that this seat, even outside Holyhead, is not wealthy. You have rich villages such as Beaumaris and Trearddur Bay but most of it is pretty poor, such as places like Amlwch and Llangefni. Even in the rural areas the villages are pretty poor (grey pebble-dashed cottages and one-storey crog-lofts on the edge of very marginal land). A friend went on holiday there once and all he could say was that it was ‘grim’. Being a North-Walian I wanted to say he was wrong, but couldn’t because lots of the area is grim. Though not as bad as some places just over the straits such as Penygroes, now that is grim!
I’m not sure I entirely agree with Joseph Brayson. Although Scotland has remained stubbornly anti-Tory almost to the point of losing all hope, the swing in Wales – where we now have 8 seats – was not much less than it was in England.
As for Anglesey/Ynys Mon, I would agree the constituency is not all that prosperous and the Tories did exceptionally well to hold it between 1979-83.
“People just weren’t ready for a Conservative government again, in 2001.
They wanted to see how things went with Labour.”
I think that’s something most of us can agree on, but nonetheless it was mortifying to achieve just one net gain when the task was so herculian – an 8% swing was needed just to get into hung parliament territory, and an 11.5% swing to get an overall majority.
As far as the voters were concerned, the economy was well managed (alas we now know that wasn’t the case, although the real overspending didn’t start until 2002/3).
It was very difficult for us to make a case without a wall of disbelief.
The attempt to find other issues like Europe and asylum – where as they are valid arguments (up to a point) – made us look obsessive and disconnected from the mainstream domestic and economic agenda.
I certainly don’t want to join the Euro or see Brussels increasing regulations and costs,
but it was starting to look like a default subject.
But I also felt the lousy turnout was as depressing as the result.
I almost feel that if you are going to be beaten, then at least the national interest should be served by the government getting the enthusiasm of 13m votes or so.
The public will support the Tories when they can see we are relevant to the big economic and domestic questions. In 2001, fairly or unfairly, that patently wasn’t the case.
On this seat, Labour clearly seems to do much better than expected. I guess Nationalism is somewhat weaker and people feel they need to support Labour to affect the GB wide result,
although on 2001, that’s somewhat odd, because the Labour victory looked absolutely certain (re the other points about 2001 in general).
‘Though not as bad as some places just over the straits such as Penygroes, now that is grim!’
What about Blaenau Ffestiniog witb its surrounding scenery of slate?
If I spent more than a couple of days threre I’d feel suicidal I’m sure
Vote Dave is right though. There is nowhere in Wales as prosperous as East Refrewshire in Scotland – which is safely Labour.
The more prosperous seats in Wales – Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North, Clwyd West, Monmouth, Aberconwy – are now Tory – albeit not as safe as their English equivalents
The Tories don’t do well in Wales because it’s not a particularly wealthy country but its voters have more in comkon with English voting patterns than Scottish – which is a different ball game alltogether
“The more prosperous seats in Wales – Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North, Clwyd West, Monmouth, Aberconwy – are now Tory – albeit not as safe as their English equivalents
The Tories don’t do well in Wales because it’s not a particularly wealthy country but its voters have more in comkon with English voting patterns than Scottish – which is a different ball game alltogether”
Wales is complicated. It’s not a coincidence that all the Welsh Tory seats are on the border/coast/areas with a large English-born population. The Tories will always struggle in post-industrial ‘Welsh Wales’ and also to a lesser extent ‘Y Fro Gymraeg’ but have regained their ground in ‘British Wales’ (which tends to vote along the same lines as neighbouring counties in England).
It seems almost certain now that this seat will be known as “Yns Mon and Bangor” from the next election onwards.
‘It seems almost certain now that this seat will be known as “Yns Mon and Bangor” from the next election onwards.’
Where do you find out about all of this?
I’ve seen absolutely nothing as to what the new seats might be to fit the 600 quota
Presumably Tim Andy means that Bangor is a population centre very close to Anglesey, which would be ideal to create a constituency of closer to the right size along with its surrounding area. If that change comes about & becomes permanent, it would enable Albert Owen potentially to enjoy a long stint as the Labour MP for the area.
Yes, it seems as though this will be the case and Albert Owen would be happy. Plaid will be livid, as they will be cut from a potential 3 winnable seats (Ynys Mon, Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd) to just 1 (a seat that would most likely be a Caernarfon and district, Dwyfor and Meirionnydd).
However, although Labour would have a safe seat in Bangor and Anglesey. They would be rather less competetive in other successor seats. They did well in Arfon and this could have been a winnable seat at the next election for them, but probably won’t exist. Similarly, the successor seat to Aberconwy and Clwyd West will probably be a very urban seat based on Llandudno, Conwy and Colwyn Bay with a couple of villages. This probably would have had a 9,000-10,000 Tory majority in 2010, so is a better seat for them, albeit a reduction in overall representation. Though a seat that Labour could win, it would be harder for them to win than the seats Labour used to win (i.e. Conwy and Clwyd West), as it united the better Tory areas of both.
The Vale of Clwyd would probably lose a lot of the rural areas and gain Abergele and small towns like Kinmel Bay and Towyn. This could benefit the Tories, but these are quite swing voters really. Currently, 8 of the 11 county councillors here are Conservatives, though I’m pretty certain this area voted Labour quite heavily under Blair. It’s quite C2 in its make-up and full of white van men and pensioners who have fled from Rhyl as it’s gone down the pan. Such a seat, (made up of Prestatyn, Rhyl and Abergele) would probably have been too close to call in 2010.
Although he’s been arguing fot the island constituency to be kept as it is, perhaps disingenuously. His analogy with the Isle of Wight is not a good one because to get there you have to get on a boat/ferry whereas this is just a short drive over the bridge.
Will Labour be able to capture this seat in the forthcoming Assembly election?
Will the local government problems in Anglesey have a serious impact on the Plaid Cymru candidate?
Adding Bangor would certainly make this seat stronger for Labour, although Plaid should be on their tails. Bangor does afterall have a not insignificant proportion of Welsh speakers, whose natural party ought to be Plaid
I’m not sure whether Colwyn Bay is that Tory any more. Like Rhyl it has gone down in the world (although not to the same extent) although I imagine there to be enough Tory votes in the surrounding areas – like Rhos on Sea, Penryn Bay and even Abergele itself – to make the seat a Tory one – although not by the margins you suggest as Labour do have a core vote in Llandudno, Conway and Colwyn Bay
One of the interesting querstions is whether David Jones or Guto Bebb will get the nomination. I would have suspected the better known Bebb to get the nod although whichever one of the two misses out could find themselves out of Parliament altogether as with the new quota I don’t see many other winnable North Welsh seats for the Tories
Perhaps the majority would have been less but not hugely so. Remember, Aberconwy and Clwyd West’s simple combined Tory majority would have been 10,000, so with a bit shaved off, perhaps it would have been more 7,000-8,000.
Guto Bebb is not better known than David Jones. The latter is the under-sec of state for Wales and was a solicitor for years in Llandudno before that. Guto Bebb was barely heard of in the area before he started contesting Conwy and Aberconwy. I would imagine that DJ would gain the selection. Guto might be happy to be a 1-term MP, as he doesn’t seem to have taken to it like a duck to water since he was elected.
‘Guto Bebb is not better known than David Jones.’
Guto Bebb’s grandfather was one of the founding members of Plaid Cymru and he’s been contesting elections for the Tories in Wales since 2002
He is also a Welsh speaker
I really don’t think that Guto’s grandad Ambrose really possesses that much of a profile in modern day Welsh politics to gain his grandson many votes. I don’t think normal voters really care who your Grandfather was (though maybe it might have helped Winston Churchill in Stretford & Davyhulme (but that’s clearly very different).
I am sure the vast majority of Welsh-speakers in Aberconwy have never even heard of Ambrose Bebb or his involvement in the founding of Plaid Cymru. The other founders, such as Saunders Lewis are still known by some, however.
The fact that Guto Bebb is a Welsh-speaker will have little effect on a new, urban seat where Welsh-speakers will probably make up only 15-20% of the population. Plus, the part that might come in from Clwyd West probably has a bigger voting bloc as I think its association is probably larger.
‘I really don’t think that Guto’s grandad Ambrose really possesses that much of a profile in modern day Welsh politics to gain his grandson many votes. ‘
Maybe not but own father who lives in Llandudno and is a life long Plaid supporter, even considered voting for him and I doubt he’s ever voted Tory before – certainly not since the election of Thatcher – so his name certainly has recognition
David Jones might be the under-sec of state for Wales but that’s purely because of who he’s not – given that he was one of only three Tory MPs representing Welsh seats in the last Parliament, the other two being the overtly populist David Davies and the similarly inclined Stephen Crabb
Had Bebb been elected in 2005 I’m certain he would have got the nod, being easily the best qualified candidate for the post
Tim – the reason I said this seat will almost certainly have to include Bangor is that there isn’t really any other feasible way of drawing the seat to increase the electorate without including Bangor.
I think a very strong case could have been made – both in terms of island culture and political balance for preserving a Sir Fôn constituency along the same lines as the Scottish and Wight seats.
It’s not just about access, it is about the special nature of island communities.
I actually think Labour and Plaid missed a trick here – if they had been working positively for the best outcome from the boundaries and AV bill instead of trying to wreck the thing they could have got a better deal.
How could a ‘Sir Fôn’ constituency have been preserved when no such constituency has ever existed?
Labour candidate Joe Lock in trouble for saying Thatcher should die lol!
He was selected as cadidate without any competition which is a bit strange for a seat Labour could gain especially on their polling ratings in Wales, and where they hold the Westminster seat. He isnt from Anglsey (Hes a student in Bangor) and doesnt speak Welsh. Which is surely a disadvantage in this seat, as while not effecting the Labour vote in Holyhead that much, probabaly does affect him in more rural areas. Areas which Albert Owen won last year and where he needs to win to gain the seat.
This is clearly a winnable seat for Labour.
You would have thought they would have selected a better and more mature candidate.
Does seem a bit strange I agree. My prediction anyway:
PC 42 (+2)
Lab 30 (+13)
Con 26 (+13)
LD 2 (-1)
Confirmed that Ieuan Wyn Jones is resigning as Plaid leader.
Wonder how the new parliamentary boundary for this seat will be set? maybe it will stay as it is because it’s an island, like Western Isles and IOW ….
Nope – the Isle of Wight, Western Isles, Orkney & Shetland have special exclusions from staying within quota enshrined in the legislation. There is no freedom for the boundary commissions to give similar exclusions to other islands.
Anglesey will almost certainly end up being put in a seat along with Bangor.
“Anglesey will almost certainly end up being put in a seat along with Bangor.”
Which will ensure Labour keep the seat for the forseeable future.
I was astonished when Labour won this seat in 2001 and then held it in 2005. I have to say, that Plaid failed to win it back in 2010 (after winning it in 1997) indicates that the Welsh Nationalist party is in deep trouble in this constituency longer term.
In all probability, Labour would most likely have held this seat in 2015 anyway. With the adddition of Bangor, that will be a near certainty.
Yes presumably the seat will expand to areas like Llanfaifechan and penmaenmawr as well.
Plaid did as well as they thought they would here in Ynys Mon ( a very small increase) but actually the tories did really quite well as I expected them to get a close 3rd (with the absence of Rogers) but they achieved 2nd with 29.2% of the vote.
Yes I suppose the seat will expand to areas like Llanfaifechan and penmaenmawr as well.
Plaid performed as well as they thought they would here in Ynys Mon in the assembly election ( a very small increase) but actually the tories did really quite well as I expected them to get a close 3rd (with the absence of Rogers) but they achieved 2nd with 29.2% of the vote.
Former MP for this seat, Keith Best in the News again. The Immigration Advisory Service which he headed til its abolition this year, misspent over £4m pa in public funds! Was he the wettest of Tories?
Elections will be held next year to the Isle of Anglesey council in eleven newly created wards-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Anglesey_County_Council_election,_2013