Wyre Forest
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18793 (36.92%)
Labour: 7298 (14.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 6040 (11.87%)
BNP: 1120 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1498 (2.94%)
Others: 16150 (31.73%)
Majority: 2643 (22.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
KHHC: 18739 (38.9%)
Conservative: 14165 (29.4%)
Labour: 10939 (22.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 178 (0.4%)
Other: 4167 (11.2%)
Majority: 4574 (9.5%)
Actual 2005 result
KHHC: 18739 (39.9%)
Conservative: 13489 (28.7%)
Labour: 10716 (22.8%)
Liberal: 2666 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1074 (2.3%)
Loony: 303 (0.6%)
Majority: 5250 (11.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9350 (19.1%)
Labour: 10857 (22.1%)
UKIP: 368 (0.8%)
KHHC: 28487 (58.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19897 (36.1%)
Labour: 26843 (48.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4377 (8%)
Referendum: 1956 (3.6%)
Other: 1982 (3.6%)
Majority: 6946 (12.6%)
Boundary changes: Wyre Forest becomes entirely coterminous with Wyre Forest district council. This involves gaining the rural Rock ward and a small part of Bewdley and Arley ward from
Profile: Wyre Forest mainly consists of the industrial town of Kidderminister, a centre for the carpet industry, but also includes Stourport and Bewdley and outlying villages.
Politically the seat is unusual. It would probably be a Conservative/Labour marginal but in 2001 it was won by an Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern candidate, Dr Richard Taylor, on the back of a campaign against the closure of the casualty unit at Kidderminister hospital. Taylor managed to retain the seat at the 2005 election, though Health Concern`s representation on the local council has fallen from it`s pre-2004 heights. In both general elections the Liberal Democrats did not put up a candidate and supported Dr Taylor. Prior to the last election Simon Hughes indicated that this deal was for that election only and that there will be a Liberal democrat candidate in Wyre Forest at the next election.
Wyre Forest is also one of the few areas (see also Liverpool West Derby and Exeter) where the continuing Liberal party retain significant strength. Prior to the 2001 election the Liberals provided the council leader as part of a “rainbow coalition”.
Current MP: Mark Garnier (Conservative) born 1963, London. Educated at Charterhouse. Fund manager. Forest of Dean councillor from 2003-2007. Contested Wyre Forest in 2005.
Mark Garnier (Conservative) born 1963, London. Educated at Charterhouse. Fund manager. Forest of Dean councillor from 2003-2007. Contested Wyre Forest in 2005.
Nigel Knowles (Labour) born 1946. Educated at King Charles I Grammar and Birmingham Polytechnic. Author. Former Haringey councillor and Wyre Forest District Councillor. Worcestershire councty councillor. Contested Bodmin 1979, Hastings 1983, Wyre Forest 1987, 1992, Wiltshire North 1997, Ludlow 2001, 2005.
Neville Farmer (Liberal Democrat) Educated at King Charles I school. Journalist and television producer. 
Michael Wrench (UKIP)Gordon Howells (BNP) Richard Taylor (Independent Community and Health Concern)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96981
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 22.4%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.4%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 15.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.6%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 14.8% (Council: 6.8%, Housing Ass.: 8.1%)
Privately Rented: 6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
‘Labour would probably have held this until 2010 had Kidderminster Hospital not have become such a big issue eleven years ago.’
I reckon they might have lost it in 2005. It’s not a seat they have traditionally been strong in and they failed to take the old Kidderminster seat even in 1966
Being an independent in the house of commkond is a thanless task and taylor did well to hold on for two terms
I guess we’ll never quite know. Lock might have held this with something like 3, 500 in 2001 and narrowly held on by about 120 in 2005, but I suppose saying he would have won in 2005 may be wishful thinking.
If you look at the result in 1997 in this seat then it is very similar to a load of other seats in Worcestershire and the wider region – Reddicth, Worcester, Stourbdirge, Stafford, Tamworth. All these seats were held by Labour in 2005. The few seats that the Conservatives did win in the region (Wrekin, Rugby, Shrewsbury) ahd been very much closer than this in 1997 so Wyre Forest does look like the sort of seat that would have been held fairly narrowly in 2005
I was responding to Tim but will add to the Results comment that if the hypothsis is that there was no issue concerning the local hospital then I don’t see any reason why the majority would have been almost halved in this seat. The majority of seats won for the first time in 1997 at the very least saw Labour hold their own in 2001and very often increase their majorities. Turnout would have been lower of course so the numerical majority may have slipped a bit, but without the hospital issue I can’t think why this seat would have behaveed very differently from other seats of its type such as those I mentioned above
It is also interesting to surmise about how high the Lib Dem vote may have been in 2001 and 2005-
But if one looks at their 97 result here, they got 4, 377 votes (8.0%).
And if one then looks at their 2010 result here they got 6, 040 votes (11.9%).
That is a 3% increase. So in 2001 they might have got about 8.5% and in 2005 they may have got 10.5%. But then again their vote share may be even higher now had they contested in 2001 and 2005.
The low LD vote in 1997 was particularly striking here because this was a seat they had previously had some strength. Ten years earlier they had won a decent second place with 34% and in that same period they frequently topped the poll in the district in local elections and were for a time the largest party on the counicl. Clearly they were squeezed heavily by Labour in 1997 and also suffered losses to the LIberals. The schism which led to the creation of a separate Liberal group here which survives to this day obviously would have mitigated somewhat againsta serious LD recovery, but it is the existance of the Hospital group which has done more to suppress their support subsequently. I expect that in 2005 they would probably have won at least 15% perhaps nearer 20% and likewise in 2010
It’s a bit of a nightmare trying to work out ward-by-ward results for this constituency with the Liberals being more popular than the LDs in a lot of wards.
Given public spending cuts and the deeply unpopular NHS reforms, I wonder whether we might not see some more “Save our hospital” candidates at the next election.
Some of the worst problems are deep in Tory areas, for example here in Bromley and Bexley where our two major hospitals (Princess Royal in Farnborough and Queen Mary in Sidcup) have effectively been declared bankrupt.
The Tories never had a safe seat here in the fourteen years they held Wyre Forest. First they had challenges from the Alliance in 83 and 87, then Labour in 92 before losing it to Labour in 97. Their nearest opposition is Health Concern, so that’s three parties in the 29 year-history of this constituency that the Conservatives have been up against.
I seem to remember the Alliance regularly winning Stourport-on-Severn in local elections in the 80s, but Labour overtook them as in the rest of the seat & won in that area for a time. It seems that quite a large realignment took place in the constituency in 1992 after the break-up of the Alliance. I suspect that eventually Labour will retake second place, but maybe not yet.
That’s surely a bit pessimistic.
From the comfort of opposition Labour will be able to hoover up a lot of NHS related protest votes in 2015, as they did in 1997 in north London.
That will overshadow the KHHC who will have no high profile figurehead given Dr Taylor is too old to stand again.
If Labour do well enough to gain an overall majority you couldn’t entirely rule out a gain here, although it’s probably quite unlikely.
Lib Dems will win here now the hospital campaign has finished. With stupendous momentum.
How does Gloy do it?
He’s got the knack of cracking the same old joke over and over again and still managing to amuse us.
He borders on being a troll but somehow never quite crosses over to that, and is one of the most famous characters on British political forums.
This one’s nothing. He’s gone and said the same about Copeland!
Anyone have an inkling who Gloy might be?
I think Gloy Plopwell is Nick Clegg LOL.
Any predictions for this seat? I assume Dr Richard Taylor will not stand as he will be 81. I also assume that the Tories will most likely win this seat, but i am curious as to how well (or bad) Labour will do.
Id have thought that this seat would have been pretty close in 2005. Tories will win unless its a dreadful result nationally
There is some evidence that Dr Taylor’s support came disproportionately from Labour, especially latterly. If he doesn’t stand, and his grouping doesn’t have a very credible & strong replacement candidate, there is likely to be a big increase in the Labour vote. I think it’s almost impossible for Labour to win the seat in one go, however – the party’s main aim here will be to re-establish itself as a major contender in the seat at the next election. Kidderminster is Labour’s potentially strongest town, with Stourport-on-Severn also fairly useful – Bewdley is likely to be pretty solidly Tory along with the rural areas in between.
Looking at the 1997 compared to 2001 it suggests that nearly as many tories as labour voters went for the KHHC – whats the evidence that the remaining support is more labour?
Prediction for 2015-
Garnier (Tory)- 20, 667 (43.2%, +6.3%)
Labour- 15, 938 (33.3%, +19.0%)
Lib Dem- 4, 384 (9.1%, -2.8%)
IKHHC- 3, 882 (8.1%, -23.6%)
Others- 2, 949 (6.1%, +1.0%)
Con hold.
Turnout- 47, 820.
Majority- 4, 729 (9.8%)
Joe – that’s a very reasonable point. It’s perfectly true that at first Richard Taylor attracted votes almost equally from Labour & the Tories. However, as his support has gone down, and that of the KHHC or whatever it’s currently called, it’s become clear that the grouping has continued to poll fairly well in some of the more usually Labour-inclined areas (especially Kidderminster) but has lost its greatest vote share in the more Tory areas (Bewdley & the more rural areas). Therefore, it’s likely that, if the grouping were off the scene, Labour would currently benefit more than the Tories.
Interestingly although he was conservative on some social issues, Dr Taylor’s voting record was much in line with the liberal democrats so perhaps their derisory vote here in recent elections of late was down to that
I don’t know this seat very well – I would have thought it’s natural state
was Conservative – Labour – Lib Dem
and no party particularly low.
I thought Labour did do very well in 1997 here but also 1992 was a good result for them.
They did appallingly in 2010 and must recover a good 10-15% here
Tim – don’t often say this, but your post is spot on. Dr Taylor was almost an LD in his voting record in Parliament, except that I think he was in favour of hanging for certain crimes.
Hanging? Christ. Was he in favour of bear-baiting or dunking witches.