Wrexham
2005 Results:
Labour: 13993 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7174 (23.6%)
Conservative: 6079 (20%)
Plaid Cymru: 1744 (5.7%)
Other: 1395 (4.6%)
Majority: 6819 (22.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6746 (22.5%)
Labour: 15934 (53%)
Liberal Democrat: 5153 (17.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1783 (5.9%)
UKIP: 432 (1.4%)
Majority: 9188 (30.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8688 (23.9%)
Labour: 20450 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4833 (13.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1170 (3.2%)
Referendum: 1195 (3.3%)
Other: 86 (0.2%)
Majority: 11762 (32.3%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Ian Lucas (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Gareth Hughes (Conservative)
Tom Rippeth (Liberal Democrat)
Arfon Jones (Plaid Cymru)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 66604
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.5%
Full time students: 4.4%
Graduates 16-74: 16.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 67.2%
Social Housing: 25.4% (Council: 22.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
Following the Euroelections, this seat is looking like a very possible Conservative gain, given the lack of an apparent LIbDem effort as an alternative.
I don’t think the particularly poor Labour performance in Wales was just due to disillusionment and MPs’ expenses. I think it is due to demographic and industrial change.
Labour has a whole string of seats like this one which are ex-mining or heavy industry, but which are now communities from which people long-distance commute to service jobs - presumably in this case often along the motorway to Manchester. I have been posting on this site for a couple of East Midlands seats, Bassetlaw and Ashfield, which look like this, So does Elmet in Yorkshire. They are all looking like “shock” results for the Tories, or in the case of Ashield the LIbDems (there with the additional worry for Labour of a likely by-election).
New Labour shoved money short-term into Education and Health, and into financial fiddling based on thin air, instead of sticking with the 1983 idea of an Alternative Economic Strategy to develop advanced manufacturing industry, and building up a Sovereign Wealth Fund with North Sea Oil revenue, from which goods like education and health could have been sustained long-term. Labour are paying the price now, but it’s too late to do anything about it in terms of electoral popularity. The benefits will go to Tories who made the same mistake, but voters do not see the picture in depth.
There have been few recent comments on this seat, but it looks very much in play now. The General Election result is very much in the balance depending on what happens in the meantime.
I agree with Frederick…Many people living in Wrexham commute to Chester/Cheshire and the demography of this seat has changed somewhat. Whilst I think that a Labour defeat is unlikely, then Labour’s majority could be ‘wafer thin’ next time around - again, this seat is called early on election night, so is one to look out for.