Worcester
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19358 (39.53%)
Labour: 16376 (33.44%)
Liberal Democrat: 9525 (19.45%)
BNP: 1219 (2.49%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.78%)
Green: 735 (1.5%)
Independent: 228 (0.47%)
Others: 173 (0.35%)
Majority: 2982 (6.09%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 19421 (41.9%)
Conservative: 16277 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7557 (16.3%)
Other: 3133 (6.8%)
Majority: 3144 (6.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15712 (35.5%)
Labour: 21478 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5578 (12.6%)
UKIP: 1442 (3.3%)
Majority: 5766 (13%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18423 (35.7%)
Labour: 25848 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6462 (12.5%)
Other: 886 (1.7%)
Majority: 7425 (14.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Robin Walker (Conservative) born 1978, son of former cabinet minister Peter Walker. Educated at Oxford University. Communications advisor.
Robin Walker (Conservative) born 1978, son of former cabinet minister Peter Walker. Educated at Oxford University. Communications advisor. 
Michael Foster(Labour) Born 1963, Birmingham. Educated at Great Wyrley High School, Former accountant for Jaguar and accountancy lecturer. First elected as MP for Worcester in 1997. Former PPS to Margaret Hodge and Peter Hain. Government whip 2006-2008, Undersecretary of state for international development since 2008. In 1997 he was the sponsor for the unsuccessful private members bill to ban hunting with dogs (more information at They work for you)
Jackie Alderson (Liberal Democrat) Born Birmingham. Educated at Liverpool University. Runs a marketing consultancy.
Louis Stephen (Green) Senior manager working for an international engineering company.
Jack Bennett (UKIP)Spencer Kirby (BNP) Andrew Robinson (Pirate) Andrew Christian-Brookes (Independent)Peter Nielsen (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93353
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 18.8%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 96.5%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 76.7%
Muslim: 1.8%
Full time students: 4.3%
Graduates 16-74: 20.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.6%
Social Housing: 15.4% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 8.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
My last comment seems to have stirred up discussion. Good! Here are some points in reponse.
Firstly, and most importantly, Richard makes a key point when he relates constituency predictions to opinion poll swings in the North West. It seems to me that people contributing to this site in general fail to link their observations about individual constituencies to national opinion poll figures. Richard is quite right to point out that the opinion poll figures, which we should interpret in relation to the regional and demographic information provided by the pollsters, are suggesting that the Tories will win constituencies which we find almost incredible. In 1997, people just did not believe that the seats suggested by the polls would change hands, but they did. We shouldn’t be caught out again. Not least, there are practical issues for party managers as to which seats can be won or saved by local campaigning or whistle-stop visits during the election.
I have previously suggested on this site that if Labour had actually believed they would get a landslide in 1997 they could have picked off several more seats, for instance in East Anglia, which would have made it even harder for the Tories to come back.
Whilst some of the Tory targets around 150 on the list are surprising, others are old friends from the 1970s and even the 1950s, e.g. Chorley. They are traditionally marginal areas which have looked safe in the landslides of the 1980s and 1997/2001. And their demographics have not changed drastically.
Secondly, my previous post related specifically to Labour/Conservative marginals. Pete Whitehead is right here. Even if the Conservatives are picking up some LibDem seats, I cannot see them getting ones below 150 on the Tory target list. For example, not Sheffield Hallam where Clegg is going to benefit from the huge publicity he will get as party leader.
It follows that if I suggest that the Tories will win Labour seat up to around 150 on their target list, it does not mean they will make 150 gains, because the LibDem and minor party seats they do not gain will need to be deleted from the notional gains list. So if, for the sake of argument, the Tories win all their Labour targets up to Coventry South and no more they will make perhaps 120 – 130 gains (you can be more precise by counting the target list), not 150. Which brings us to the top end of Joe James B’s expectation of a Tory majority of up to 50.
Thirdly, we have to look at how much of Labour’s vote might disappear to minor parties. Sadly, a number of the seats Richard find incredible are ones where some Labour vote could move to the BNP. A couple of them (Oldham, Huddersfield) also have Liberal traditions, so a Labour to LibDem swing could let in the TorIes. And although the Greens seem to be out of public mind at present, York Central has a substantial Green challenge which could take disaffected Labour votes, and whilst I know the boundaries are different York was after all Conservative from 1950 – 1966 and in the 1980s. A further issue is York is that it is a railway town and could suffer from the RMT’s lack of supprt for New Labour.
Finally, I doubt how much it matters that there is a lack of positive enthusiasm for Cameron’s Conservatives. All the psephological wisdom is that it is Governments that lose elections rather than Oppositions that win them. Of course, this point changes if disaffected votes are split by the intervention of a minor party that takes votes away from the Tories; but this does not appear to be happening at present.
I don’t think Norfolk North will be particularly close as long as Norman Lamb is standing.
With the possible exceptions of Berwickshire (where the Conservatives have the MSP) and Winchester and Harrogate (where the MPs are standing down) I can’t see any Conservative gains from the LibDems beyond target 100.
I think they’ll also fail to win several LibDem constituencies with smaller majorities as well.
I think the LDs will hold most of the seats in Cornwall even though their majorities are not that large.
Andy – I agree with that, maybe 4 will stay Lib Dem and 2 will go Conservative
Is there a local reason why the Tory % has stuck at 35% since 1997?
I am sure Robin Walker will be an MP after the election just like his father Peter Walker who served under Heath and Thatcher.
Andrew Robinson is the candidate for the Pirate Party
I see Worcester Lib Dems have chosen Jackie Alderson to fight the seat
Cons Gain= 2,000 maj
CON 2000
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Con Gain
Maj 600
BNP have selected Spencer Kirby
Con maj 3,000
CON GAIN
Which is the wealthiest ward in the city? Is it Claines, considering it generally has the highest turnout in most local elections?
If so, was this a safe Conservative seat at one time before the Liberal Democrats won here? Looks very similar to St Margaret’s in Ipswich, Eaton in Norwich and Henleaze in Bristol.
Always thought it was Bedwardine myself, but my knowledge of the city is a bit sketchy.
Pete’s prediction was within 18 votes of the result.
Lord Walker, former MP for Worcester and Cabinet minister, passed away from cancer this morning at the age of 78. I am sure condolences are sent especially to his son, Robin, the present MP.
Peter Walker represented this seat from a 1961 by-election until his retirement in 1992. I had no idea his son was the current MP until hearing the news today and it must have been of some comfort that he lived long enough to see his son following in his footsteps.
I wonder if Pete could give his thoughts that among present Conservative MPs there are the sons of such heroes of his as Douglas Hurd, John Gummer and Peter Walker (and previously Jim Prior)?
How many current MPs are offspring of former ones?
And how many of them are worth keeping?
I fully expect another Benn and Straw in the next parliament on the Labour side. Neil Kinnock’s son is married to the leader of the Danish Labour party
@Merseymike “Neil Kinnock’s son is married to the leader of the Danish Labour party”
Kinnock’s daugther, Rachel, worked for Gordon Brown and is currently on Ed Miliband’s team. I wouldn’t be surprised if she pops up in the future in some safe seats shortlists.
On current Labour’s benches, I can think of John Cryer and Anas Sarwar who had fathers and/or mothers in the Commons (in Cryer’s case both parents). And obviously Hilary Benn.
There is also Bernard Jenkin on the Conservative benches and Percy Grieve and Charles Walker (Broxbourne) is the son of Christopher Chattaway. The sons (or daughters) may not necessarily share exactly the same political outlook as their parents as Hilary Benn is an example. I don’t know if the junior Gummers, Hurds or Walkers are as ‘wet’ as their respective parents – Charles Walker certainly isn’t. I think as long as people are selected on their merits rather than because of their name then I have no problem. They should not be denied selection because of their name (unless of course Ted Heath had managed to have offspring – surely no self-respecting Tory association would touch a son of Heath with a bargepole)
Present Conservative MPs related to other former MPs (there may be mistakes in the list… feel free to point any out):
James Arbuthnot (MP 1987-), son of Sir John Arbuthnot, 1st Baronet (MP 1950-64)
Richard Benyon (2005-), son of Sir William Benyon (MP 1970-92); incidentally, also a great-great-grandson of former PM Lord Salisbury
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (1992-), related to seven other MPs, including his grandfather Geoffrey Clifton Brown (MP 1945-50), his great, great uncles Speaker Douglas Clifton Brown, 1st Viscount Ruffside (MP 1918-23, 24-51) and Howard Clifton Brown (MP 1922-23, 24-45), and their father James Clifton Brown (MP 1876-80); also Speaker Sir Harry Hylton-Foster (MP 1950-65).
Richard Drax (2010-), at least six of his ancestors were Members of Parliament, including John Erle-Drax (MP 1841-57, 59-65, 68-80), and John Plunkett, 17th Baron of Dunsany (MP 1886-92).
Philip Dunne (2005-), grandson of Philip Russell Dunne (MP 1935-37), great-grandson of Edward Dunne (MP 1906-10), and great nephew of Aidan Crawley (MP 1945-51, 62-67).
Zac Goldsmith (2010-), grandson of Frank Goldsmith (MP 1910-18), also grandson of Robin Vane-Tempest-Stewart, 8th Marquess of Londonderry (MP 1931-45), and great-grandson of Charles Vane-Tempest-Stewart, 7th Marquess of Londonderry (MP 1906-15)
Dominic Grieve (1997-), son of Percy Grieve (MP 1964-83)
Ben Gummer (2010-), son of John Gummer, Baron Deben of Winston (MP 1970-74, 79-2010)
Nick Hurd (2005-), son of Douglas Hurd, Baron Hurd of Westwell (MP 1974-97), grandson of Anthony Hurd, Baron Hurd of Newbury (MP 1945-64), and great-grandson of Sir Percy Hurd (MP 1918-23, 24-45)
Bernard Jenkin (1992-), son of Patrick Jenkin, Baron Jenkin of Roding (MP 1964-87)
Francis Maude (1983-92, 1997-), son of Angus Maude, Baron Maude of Stratford-upon-Avon (MP 1950-58, 63-83)
Andrew Mitchell (1987-97, 2001-), son of Sir David Mitchell (MP 1964-97)
Mark Pawsey (2010-), son of James Pawsey (MP 1979-97)
Laura Sandys (2010-), daughter of Duncan Sandys, Baron Duncan-Sandys of the City of Westminster (MP 1935-45, 50-74), granddaughter of George Sandys (MP 1910-18)
Nicholas Soames (1983-), son of Christopher Soames, Baron Soames of Fletching (MP 1950-66)
Charles Walker (2005-), adopted son of Sir Christopher Chataway (MP 1959-66, 69-74)
Robin Walker (2010-), son of Peter Walker, Baron Walker of Worcester (MP 1961-92)
Bill Wiggin (2001-), son of Sir Jerry Wiggin (MP 1969-97)
Theresa Villiers has an ancestor or two who served in the Commons in the C19th I think
And of course there’s David Cameron himself.
There are also some Tory MPs who aren’t in the above list who are related to current or former MEPs or Peers.
Of course you could add that Nicholas Soames is the grandson of some obscure C20th politician who had something to do with World War Two
.
I have a feeling that Peter Bottomley may in some way be related by marriage to a well-known former Tory MP! He is also the uncle of Kitty Ussher, Labour MP for Burnley in the last parliament.
Indeed Barnaby.
Although we must now refer to him as Sir Peter
The Johnson political dynasty grew with the election of Joseph.
And politics also seems to run in the Rees-Mogg genes.
Obviously there are Labour dynasties too, the best-known being the Benn one. There was at one point a possibility that Benns of 3 generations would be Labour candidates in the general election. It’s been remarked on here that Katy Clark is the granddaughter of a Labour MP and don’t forget that in the last parliament we had 2 sisters and the husband of one of them all on the Labour benches. And several Labour MPs have managed to hand a seat over to their offspring – Mohammed Sarwar, Barnett Janner & Ernie Armstrong all come to mind straight away but I think there might have been others too.
Arguably, indeed almost certainly, Philip Dunne has a more illustrious predecessor than mere Members of Parliament – he is descended from the poet John Donne.
Labour start the selection process here too. Selection on November 19. It’s an AWS
Shortlist for Labour parliamentary selection
Carol Dean (from Tamworth, former Staffordshire CC councillor, works for Birmingham MP Richard Burden)
Trudie McGuinness (from Stafford, Director of ‘learner experience’ at South Staffordshire College)
Joy Squires (Worcester Councillor, consultant in children’s services)
Tracy Wood (Dudley Councillor, West Midlands Unison’s health service director)
Squires was selected.
Labour would have liked further gains here but at least managed to do better than last year in winning a majority of the seats up for election. More work required in the coming years but at least some progression.
I managed to catch an hour of the Lords Reform Bill debate and the quality was v gd. However, this MP’s hands were physically shaking when he was speaking. He and the Labour MP for Livingston stood out as the poorest speakers.
Worcester 2015 most likely
Con 41
Lab 39
LD 12.5
Others 7.5
I think Joy Squires will do VERY well and win Worcester back from Robyn Walker. I think this because Labour are growing stronger and stronger especially in membership in worcester.