Wolverhampton South West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17542 (43.7%)
Conservative: 15289 (38.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5388 (13.4%)
Other: 1911 (4.8%)
Majority: 2252 (5.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15610 (37.5%)
Labour: 18489 (44.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5568 (13.4%)
BNP: 983 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1029 (2.5%)
Majority: 2879 (6.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16248 (39.7%)
Labour: 19735 (48.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3425 (8.4%)
UKIP: 684 (1.7%)
Green: 805 (2%)
Majority: 3487 (8.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19539 (39.9%)
Labour: 24657 (50.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4012 (8.2%)
Other: 713 (1.5%)
Majority: 5118 (10.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Rob Marris(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Paul Uppal (Conservative) born Birmingham. Contested Birmingham Yardley 2005.Rob Marris(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Robin Lawrence (Liberal Democrat) Wolverhampton councillor since 2007.
Doug Hope (UKIP) Contested Wolverhampton South West 2001
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81714
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20.7%
Over 60: 23.2%
Born outside UK: 13.8%
White: 74.8%
Black: 4.4%
Asian: 17.4%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 64.3%
Hindu: 4.4%
Muslim: 3.6%
Sikh: 8.2%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 21.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 13.4%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.9%
“So would the old version of this seat have been similar to Birmingham Handsworth?”
Yes probably a very good comparison. It looks like a fair bet it would have gone Labour in 1974 and possibly stayed that way ever after
“What’s Vision of Britain?”
Its a website which has a number of historical maps including crucially for our purposes boundary maps of old parliamentary constituencies. Very useful for answering questions from Harry Porter (though I think he is yet to discover it himself!)
Pete
Having just compared the 1970 results to those of earlier elections in Birmingham and Wolverhampton I was surprised to see that the Conservatives did a lot less well in 1970 than I had expected.
There were seats that swung strongly to Labour during the 1960s – All Saints, Handsworth, Selly Oak. Doubtless demographic change played a major part.
The Conservatives seem to have done best in Northfield and Perry Barr.
National swing 4.7
Cannock 10.7
Ladywood 9.6*
Dudley 9.2*
Brierley Hill 9.1
Wolverhampton NE 8.7
Northfield 8.6
Wolverhampton SW 8.3
Walsall N 7.8
Stechford 7.1
Yardley 6.6
Meriden 6.6
Perry Barr 6.3
Hall Green 6.2
Oldbury & Halesowen 6.1
Walsall S 6.0
Bilston 5.6
Solihull 5.4
Small Heath 5.3
Lichfield & Tamworth 5.1
Wednesbury 4.7
Sparkbrook 4.5
Aston 4.2
Rowley Regis 3.8
Edgbaston 3.7
West Bromwich 2.3
Smethwick 1.6
Selly Oak 1.2
Handsworth 1.0
Sutton Coldfield 0.5**
All saints -1.2
* Dudley and especially Ladywood’s figures are skewed by there having been by-elections in the previous parliament in which Labour had lost the seat
** There was a substantial increase in elctorate and in the Labour vote in Sutton Coldfield in 1970 which I believe is due to the construction of the Castle Vale estate which was then included in that seat as part of Erdington ward.
You are right that the swing was not as large in many areas as some may have been led to believe. In particular it might be surprising that the swing was actually lower than the national average in some of the inner Black Country seats such as West Bromwich and Rowley Regis & Tipton. Inner Birmingham seats which had already by then a substantial ethnic minority vote obviously are not so surprising.
The swing since 1964 is perhaps even more interesting. Most seats swung to Labour in 1966 and to the Tories in 1970 of course. But a majority of seats in this area actually swung less to the Conservatives between 1964 and 1970 than the country as a whole and a substantial number swung to Labour. One caveat is of cousre that the Conservatives had done relatively well in the West Midlands in 1964 even gaining some seats like Perry Barr and (in)famously Smethwick.
National swing 2.1
Dudley 9.1
Cannock 8.4
Brierley Hill 6.9
Lichfield & Tamworth 5.2
Wolverhampton SW 4.4
Walsall N 4.1
Oldbury & Halesowen 3.7
Meriden 3.3
Wolverhampton NE 2.8
Northfield 2.5
Solihull 2.4
Walsall S 2.3
Ladywood 2.0
Bilston 1.8
Perry Barr 0.8
Yardley 0.5
Hall Green -0.3
Wednesbury -0.4
West Bromwich -0.5
Stechford -1.6
Rowley Regis -1.8
Aston -2.0
Edgbaston -3.0
Small Heath -3.1
Sutton Coldfield -3.2
Handsworth -4.0
Sparkbrook -4.1
Selly Oak -4.7
Smethwick -6.1
All saints -8.9
Furtehr to my point about the boundary changes in 1974, Enoch Powell’s result in 1970 in the old Wolverhampton SW:
Con 26,220 64.3%
Lab 11,753 28.8%
Lib 2459 6.0%
Maj 14,467 35.5%
I reckon if you removed the Blakenhall/Ettingshall/East Park area and replaced it with the Tettenhall/Merry Hill area (ie the present constituency boundaries), Powell would have probably won over 70% of the vote and had a majority of around 25,000.
Conversely if the election of februray 1974 had been fought on the same boundaries as 1970, nick Budgen would probably have lost which would have entailed a swing of over 18%
Why the big swing in Cannock?
Was All Saints the non Ladywood parts of Ladywood?
Cannock then included the northern part of what became Staffordshire SW (now Staffordshire South) and had experienced a lot of housing development of a middle class nature in the late 60s also this was very much in the orbit of Wolverhampton. In addition it included Wednesfield, now part of Wolverhampton (NE) – a ‘white working class’ area which would have been susceptible to the appeal of ‘Powellism’.
Ironic that the benificiary was the dripping-wet Patrick Cormack.
“Was All Saints the non Ladywood parts of Ladywood?”
Yes – essentially it was the current Soho ward plus the Rotten Park area of the current Ladywood ward. Amazing to think that area elected a Tory MP in 1959.
Cannock in fact provided the highest swing to the Tories anywhere at that election. Brierley Hill was a similar type of seat, being named for an old industrial district but having become heavily influenced by middle class dormitories (in this case the southern part of what was to become Staffs SW – plus Tettenhall). That was one of very few seats which eleceted a Labour MP in 1955 and a Conservative in 1966
Yes Pete, it’s strange that a seat called Brierley Hill ended up quite Conservative, whereas a seat named after Kingswinford (nowadays a clearly middle-class area) was able to elect a Labour MP even before WWII.
Presumably much of this middle class migration came from the likes of Handsworth and Selly Oak or even closer to the centre.
Wasn’t Belper the most famous of the middle class exodus constituencies?
Interestingly in Feb 74 when the seat did include Tettenhall there was a big swing to Labour because of the Powell effect. There were some seats in 1997 where the addition of wards was expected to favour the Tories but it turned out not to be so – although more to do with the national swing than a personal factor.