Oh - I’ve been to Wolverhampton at least twice.

Nearly a year ago, David Boothroyd referred to Labour suffering in 2001 because their MP stood down after only one term. I am not fully clear why Jenny Jones stood down, although googling to write this comment I see an anoymous whip was quoted in the “Telegraph” as suggesting that the trouble with her was that she had a mind of her own (but her voting record was hardly that of a persistent rebel). David Boothroyd suggests that Labour in consequence achieved an incumbency effect in 2005 but not 2001. It would be interesting to know if the change of MP has had any lasting effect.

More (if not very) recently, H.Hemmelig discussed the importance of local candidates. But he suggested Enoch Powell was not local. Well, whatever else you think of him, Powell was born in Birmingham and had strong Black Country connections (yes, I know Wolverhampton is not in the Black Country). And of course he had a very strong West Midlands accent. So, whilst Powell did not actually come from Wolverhampton he was by no means a carpetbagger, whatever other criticisms many of us would like to lay at his door. But then H.Hemmelig also asks what would have happened if Churchill had been rejected by the electors of Dundee, but indeed Churhcill was defeated in Dundee in 1922, after which he found a seat in Epping. Churchill was beaten by a Prohibitionist by the name of Scrymgeor. Given Churchill’s reputation as a drinker, perhaps he would have been a more effective war leader if he had heeded the message the good people of Dundee gave him. But so far as I know, Chruchill had no particular political connection with Wolverhampton, so I am drifting from the point!

Many people who have never been to Wolverhampton have a very unfair image of the place. As previous comments have indicated, different wards in Wolverhampton have very contrasting characters, with the political implications this involves.

You missed off turnout.

You’re right, an absolutely appalling result for Labour.

Where does that leave David Hackett’s prediction?

The swing here will exceed national trends. No serious commentator can expect Marris to hold on.

There seems to be more history of direct switches between Labour and Conservative in the West Midlands than other areas so I would expect greater potential for Conservative gains in this region.

Immigration has also tended to be an important issue in the West Midlands.

A different way of putting Richard’s point is that the Liberal Democrats have for a long time been very weak in the West Midlands. This probably traces right back to Joseph Chamberlain’s defection at the end of the nineteenth century from Liberal to Liberal Unionist and then Conservative. Wolverhampton itself has a long tradition of investment by Conservative industrialists, for instance Tarmac (Carillon), a major employer here, was founded by a Tory MP at the beginning of the twentieth century.

Racism no longer has the psephological importance in this seat that Richard implies, although ethnic diversity raises social issues that local people have learned to handle.