Wolverhampton North East
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18562 (54.6%)
Conservative: 10048 (29.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3965 (11.7%)
Other: 1443 (4.2%)
Majority: 8514 (25%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9792 (29.7%)
Labour: 17948 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3845 (11.7%)
UKIP: 1371 (4.2%)
Majority: 8156 (24.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9019 (28.6%)
Labour: 18984 (60.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2494 (7.9%)
UKIP: 997 (3.2%)
Majority: 9965 (31.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11547 (27.9%)
Labour: 24534 (59.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2214 (5.3%)
Referendum: 1192 (2.9%)
Other: 1916 (4.6%)
Majority: 12987 (31.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Ken Purchase(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Julie Rook (Conservative) Emma Reynolds (Labour) Former special advisor to Geoff Hoon.Ian Jenkins (Liberal Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84063
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 25.5%
Over 60: 20.8%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 85.1%
Black: 4.7%
Asian: 6.9%
Mixed: 3.1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 72.6%
Hindu: 1.4%
Muslim: 0.6%
Sikh: 4.4%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 9.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 45%
Owner-Occupied: 57.5%
Social Housing: 34.3% (Council: 31%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.3%
Thats true there are virtually no Tory-Labour marginals in SW now as Graisely has become safely Labour and Park has become a LD-Labour battleground (though the Tories should be able to compete there still). St Peters is safely Labour and the other four wards are safely Tory again. Park is realy the only ward which is likely to see a concerted campaign in the local elections. In contrast most of the wards in this seat are marginal. Labour will be defending Fallings Park and Oxley which they lost last year and the Tories will be defending the two Wendesfield wards. Even Bushbury N (Con) and Heath Town (Lab)are not totally safe for their respective parties – only Low HIll is a Labour banker.
Wolverhampton electorates for new seats (1st Dec 2008):
NE: 59,941
SE: 61,217
SW: 59,405
Matt – a correction. I live in the Wolverhampton North East.
I lived in London for 2 years. I am NOT from London.
I am from Wolverhampton, grew up here and went to school here.
It is interesting that some people who write on this and other blogs just make things up without checking their facts.
Emma Reynolds
I have been spending some time in this constituency recently and I rate this as a good potential gain. This is the only seat I have commented on because I do think this could be very exciting for the Conservative party.
I would rate this constituency as the biggest potential upset you will see at the general election. The Labour vote is very soft, the BNP will do well here. This is a constituency that over reflects and compensates national swings – because so much of it is made up of swing voters that I think the Labour party will have a very tough job here. If anything with the new housing developments this is more fertile territory than it was in 1987 and that can be seen specifically in Heath Town and Low Hill.
With the redevelopment and planning permissions in this constituency in 10 years time it could be a better tory seat than Wolves South West.
Ladbrokes:
Labour 2/7
Conservatives 9/4
Liberal Democrats 100/1
UKIP 100/1
9/4 is an excellent price for this seat. Will certainly gamble a tenner on this one. Forget the national polls and talk of a hung Parliament, this seat is likely to move a long way.
Yes those odds do look very enticing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see those figures changing before long to better reflect the possibility of a Tory gain.
Interesting bit of news(gossip) from a phone bank colleague, who says having nearly phone canvassed the whole constituency for the tories, they are convinced this result will shock, as a result spending on literature etc will escalate, as will other resources to make Wolverhampton a new cameron heartland
Labrokes–new odds
Labour–1/3
Conservatives 2/1
Libs–100/1
Thank christ i got the tories at 9/4 earlier as recommended.
I still expect these odds to shorten (tories), so get on asap
I really do not see how on earth a Tory Candidate who is an established businesswoman and Councillor down in DOVER, KENT, and who is hardly ever seen in this constituency – according to my contacts on all sides that is – can possibly expect to take an industrial urban seat like Wolverhampton North East in a year when the best the Tories could hope for is to be the largest single party in parliament; for they sure as heck aren’t going to get a majority this time. No party is!
IF the Tories had selected a local councillor, or a local businessman or woman with strong local roots, who could have built up a solid and progressive local campaign, then just perhaps – given the departure of the sitting Labour MP – this seat would be a serious possibility for them in 2010, but given the circumstances I would predict a Labour hold with a majority of around 2,000-3,000 this time, with of course the chance the Tories might make Ms Reynolds sweat a bit in 2015 when the national polls become closer!
However, if you want my personal opinion, I think the Tories had a once-in-a-generation second chance with this seat, and they spectacularly blew it!
A majority of 2-3,000 would imply a pretty hefty swing of 8% or so which if repeated nationally would certainly give the Tories a majority (though I accept and have argued myself that the swing here is likely to exagerrate the national movement).
Also your suggestion that the Tories may take the seat in 2015 when ‘the national polls become closer’ makes no sense. The polls at the moment are all giving the Tories a lead of around 10% – by definition if they have become closer then there would be a Tory lead smaller than that (or a Labour lead smaller than 10%) in which case the circumstancs will be even less favourable than now.
hmm.. all this talk of 2015 reminds me of David Hackett once of this parish.
Pete I think you misunderstand my point.
The Tories only seem to have a chance of gaining the Wolverhampton North East seat when either the boundaries significantly change in future or an incumbent Labour MP steps down (aka June 1987, Maureen Hicks at Wolverhampton North East).
What I am saying therefore is that once every 20 years or so (when a Wolverhampton North East MP would be likely to step down) it is reasonable to say that moment should be the best chance the Tories will ever get of taking the parliamentary seat, and the course of action that they take as soon as the MP does step down will determine whether or not they will succeed.
It would appear that this time (unlike 1987), the Tories failed to take their chance to gain it.
I am predicting that Labour will hold WNE this time by around a 2,000-3,000 majority, and then in all probability Ms Reynolds will hold onto it for however long she wishes to remain in parliament. Given her age, this may be as long as 30 years, or even longer, that is if she goes the Bruce George and David Winnick route!
Well, it looks like the campaign is well underway here in the North East. Both candidates literature has found its way into my letterbox.
Mrs Rook has a polished glossy that seems to hit all the bases and has obviously costs a pretty penny or two , whilst Mz Reynolds has to share her leaflet with the other two Wolverhampton MPs and a scarecrow of a man (leader of the labour councillors). It looks a bit cheap, only two colour and perhaps show just how much trouble the Labour party is in, in Wolverhampton.
Nothing as yet from any of the other parties.
This site says Ian Jenkins is the Lib Dem candidate here, but I heard a rumour that in fact the former Lib Dem Candidate for Wolverhampton South West in 2005 (Colin Boss I think?) had actually been selected?