Witham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24448 (52.2%)
Labour: 8656 (18.48%)
Liberal Democrat: 9252 (19.75%)
UKIP: 3060 (6.53%)
Green: 1419 (3.03%)
Majority: 15196 (32.45%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21201 (48.1%)
Labour: 14156 (32.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6589 (15%)
Other: 2121 (4.8%)
Majority: 7046 (16%)
New seat: takes in parts of the old Braintree, Maldon and East Chelmsford, Colchester and North Essex seats.
Profile: This is a large rural seat with few large population centres, it runs from the hinterland of Maldon to the south, almost up to Braintree in the north and to the western fringes of Colchester, including the village turned suburb of Stanway, in the north. The main town is Witham, once a spa and wool town that saw the building of several GLC overspill estates in the 1960s and 70s and hence actually has some reliable Labour areas. Elsewhere the constituency is rural or suburban and more strongly Tory. Other towns and villages include the growing village of Kelvedon, swollen by more recent housing development; Heckfordbridge; Tiptree, associated with jam-making; Coggeshall, once an early industrial centre for silk making, now a picturesque collection of listed buildings; Chipping Hill; Wickham Bishops; Goldhanger andTollesbury, a fishing village which traditionally harvests oysters from the Blackwater estuary to the south of this constituency.
As a slice of Tory Essex this was the seat that Bernard Jenkin and other MPs are supposed to have told Asian would be Conservative candidate Ali Miraj that they would be shocked if it did not select a white, middle-class male. Presumably to the shock of Bernard Jenkin it did not, opting instead for Priti Patel, who assuming a Conservative victory in what seems to be a safe Conservative seat will become the first female Asian MP.
Current MP: Priti Patel (Conservative) Former CCO researcher and corporate affairs spokesman for Diageo. Press Spokesman for the Referendum Party at the 1997 General Election. Deputy Press Secretary to William Hague between 1997 and 2000. Chairman of Erith & Thamesmead Conservatives. Contested Nottingham North 2005.
Priti Patel (Conservative) Former CCO researcher and corporate affairs spokesman for Diageo. Press Spokesman for the Referendum Party at the 1997 General Election. Deputy Press Secretary to William Hague between 1997 and 2000. Chairman of Erith & Thamesmead Conservatives. Contested Nottingham North 2005.
John Spademan (Labour) Railway safety worker.Margaret Phelps (Liberal Democrat)
James Abbott (Green) born 1960. Educated at UCL. Runs a gardening business. Braintree councillor since 1999. Contested Braintree 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005. Contested Essex North and Suffolk South 1994 European electionsDave Hodges (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82089
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 3.9%
White: 98.2%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 76.3%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 15.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 75.9%
Social Housing: 16.1% (Council: 12.9%, Housing Ass.: 3.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.5%
I’m not exactly the first (and I’m sure I won’t be the last) to venture an opinion on the merits or otherwise of the sitting MP – it’s an integral part as to why the electorate of seat might vote the way it does
However, I accept that whenever I do I have the right-wingers screaming ‘foul play’ to the moderator so I’ll stick to the seat itself and say that I still think for what is essentially a working class seat (the town Whitham certainly is) the Tory majority here seems very high – especially for an MP who has none of the advantages incumbancy usually brings
Surely that comment is within the boundaries of what is acceptable and what’s not…
The town of Witham itself has only about 18,000 electors which is around a quarter of the total electorate of the constituency. I expect Labour were still reasonably competitive in the town of Witham itself even in 2010, but they are weak in the remainder of the seat which doesn’t fit the working class description at all
‘The town of Witham itself has only about 18,000 electors’
I was referring to the town itself – rather than the surrounding areas which I assumed wouldn’t be labour
Surprised there are only 18,000 electors in the town itself, which helps explain the result a little better
What seat would this have been in between 83-97 – Colchester South?
Witham was in the Braintree constituency from 1983 to 1997 (as well as 1997 to 2010). Source = Almanac of British Politics, 1983 edition.
I guess it was partly the removal of Witham itself that made Braintree a safe Tory seat.
“I was referring to the town itself – rather than the surrounding areas which I assumed wouldn’t be labour”
Sorry Tim but that wasn’t particularly clear from this statement:
“so I’ll stick to the seat itself and say that I still think for what is essentially a working class seat (the town Whitham certainly is) the Tory majority here seems very high ”
The Tory majority is of course for the seat as a whole rather than just the town of Witham. The seat as a whole is not ‘essentially working class’. The town of Witham is indeed essentially working class and unlikely to produce a very large Tory majority (if at all) in a normal year. But 75% of the electorate of this town are not in the town of Witham
“What seat would this have been in between 83-97 – Colchester South?”
About 36,000 voters are from Braintree district and the old Braintree constituency – half these in Witham the remainder in smaller towns like Kelvedon and Coggeshall plus some villages. 10,000 voters are from the rural north of Maldon which together with about 10,000 voters in Colchester district (around Tiptree) were in COlchester South & Maldon and another 10,000 voters around Stanway and Marks Tey were in Colchester North
‘I guess it was partly the removal of Witham itself that made Braintree a safe Tory seat.’
Just as putting it back in – as I assume they did in 97 – meant that Labour could take it
Essex seemed to be one of the first places to fall out of love with New Labour
Apart from Norfolk North West all the Tory gains in 2001 were from the old county of Essex and in 2005 Labour were almost wiped out – only just holding onto both Basildon and Harlow with miniscule majorities and saw the erosion of a big lead in Thurrock
“‘I guess it was partly the removal of Witham itself that made Braintree a safe Tory seat.’
Just as putting it back in – as I assume they did in 97 – meant that Labour could take it”
What are you talking about Tim? Witham was never removed before 1997 and put back in then. Joe is referring to the Braintree seat which came into being in 2010 being safely Tory following the removal of Witham. From the creation of the Braintree seat in 1974 until 2010 Witham was always included.
Both towns have traditional Labour strength of course and contributed to the marginal status of the pre-1974 Maldon seat. A seat containing both towns was always likely to be competitive for Labour (though this was masked in their dire years in the 1980s) but now booth towns are overwhelmed by other areas where Labour are weak
Tim – I did mention above that Witham was in Braintree from 1983 to 2010 (according to the Almanac of British Politics).
I got the wrong end of the stick Andy as Joe spoke it the past tense when describing Witham’s removal from the Brainteee seat – making me think it had been removed from the Braintree seat in 1983-97 and then went back in it in 1997-2010
I didn’t realise how little of the electorate of this seat actually resided in Witham itself
Front page article in this weeks “Braintree & Witham Times” says that due to the boundary changes Witham is a one term Constituency and Priti Patel has denied a rumour that she is going to stand in the Isle Of Wight at the next GE.
Probably true. Bad luck for Priti Patel. Maybe Alan Haselhurst might retire in Saffron Walden then either Priti Patel or Brooks Newmark could move there.
I’m not so sure it is true. the relatively undersized seats are further south in Essex, in Castle Point and Southend. I think Witham could survive in modified form (perhaps gaining the town of Maldon) and Wickford & Rayleigh looks a better candidate for abolition to me
‘Alan Haselhurst might retire in Saffron Walden ‘
If he did that would leave Essex with more right wing Tory MPs than any other country – which is quite fitting
If they persuaded Democrat-supporting Simon Burns to stand down and defeated Bob Russell in Colchester they’d do the clean sweep
A clear sweep might be too much to hope for. Thurrock would change hands on any pro-Labour swing,
Just out of interest, was the last time the Conservatives had a clear sweep of Essex seats when they held Thurrock in the 1987-92 parliament?
Yes Adam that’s correct. 1987 & 2010 are the only 2 occasions Thurrock has been won by the Conservatives since its creation.
The Boundary Commission have largely recreated the pre -2010 position in North Essex. This makes sense and is unlikely to be significantly changed following consultation.
Surely Hazelhurst will be prevailed upon to retire allowing Brooks Newmark to move to the “NW Essex” seat (however it eventually ends up being named). The Conservatives will not want to lose Priti Patel, so she is sure to be given a seat, and this is the obvious way to do it. Jenkin and Whittingdale aren’t going to retire.