Wirral South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15745 (39.46%)
Labour: 16276 (40.79%)
Liberal Democrat: 6611 (16.57%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.19%)
Majority: 531 (1.33%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16892 (42.5%)
Conservative: 13168 (33.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8568 (21.6%)
Other: 1076 (2.7%)
Majority: 3724 (9.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13168 (33.2%)
Labour: 16892 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8568 (21.6%)
UKIP: 616 (1.6%)
Other: 460 (1.2%)
Majority: 3724 (9.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13841 (34.8%)
Labour: 18890 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7087 (17.8%)
Majority: 5049 (12.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17495 (36.4%)
Labour: 24499 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5018 (10.4%)
Referendum: 768 (1.6%)
Other: 315 (0.7%)
Majority: 7004 (14.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alison McGovern (Labour) Public affairs manager. Southwark councillor.
Jeff Clarke (Conservative) Barrister specialising in criminal law. Chester councillor since 2004. Contested Wirral West for the Liberal Democrats in 2005, Preseli Pembrokeshire in 1997. Joined the Conservative party after the election of David Cameron. Alison McGovern (Labour) Public affairs manager. Southwark councillor.
Jamie Saddler (Liberal Democrat) Born 1986, Norwich. Educated at Calday Grange Grammar School and University of Leeds. Researcher to Andrew Stunell MP.
David Scott (UKIP) Contested Wirral South 2005.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70944
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 21.8%
Over 60: 25.6%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 82.3%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 22.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.3%
Owner-Occupied: 82.6%
Social Housing: 10.5% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.2%
‘The reason why I mentioned Liverpool is that you seemed to get quite defensive of us Scousers during the discussion RE Hillsborough.’
That’s for the simple reason I’m a lifelong Liverpool fan and almost as interested in football as I am politics
Oh I see Tim. I on the other hand am an Everton fan.
‘Oh I see Tim. I on the other hand am an Everton fan.’
the less said about that the better although to be honest my sislike for them pales into cdomparoison to uuert hatred I have towards Man Utd and most of all Chelsea, the latter seemingly being the club of choice for anyone on the far Right of the political divide
I don’t dislike Liverpool Tim. It was always traditionally a. friendly rivalry in the sense that families with large equal supporters of both teams would go and watch the derbies together on the terraces.
Sadly now this is a thing of the past.
“…Chelsea, the latter seemingly being the club of choice for anyone on the far Right of the political divide”.
If you’re talking about BNP/NF then there are a number of clubs that have had more trouble from fans with those kind of association than Chelsea. Millwall certainly have.
But then it depends what you mean, Tim, by far right. Your comments on this site do exhibit a tendency to see anyone to the right of yourself as in some way extreme.
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to find that fans of Chelsea are more likely to vote Tory than fans of most other clubs. A few days ago the Telegraph published a map compiled by Oxford Internet Institute plotting where Twitterers with an allegiance to a Premiership club live. It shows that Chelsea have a lot of fans in SE England, particularly in Tory Surrey.
The map I referred to is here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/9795377/Twitter-map-finally-reveals-exactly-where-Manchester-United-fans-live.html
“and most of all Chelsea, the latter seemingly being the club of choice for anyone on the far Right of the political divide”
That’s a lazy generalisation.
Tony Banks for example was a devoted Chelsea supporter.
As others have said, in terms of far right hooliganism you would find a lot more at Millwall, and to a certain extent Charlton and Crystal Palace.
Does anyone else find the talking adverts that have recently appeared on this site a right pain in the arse?
I am also an Everton fan and a season ticket holder.
I think that the far right links with premiership clubs were tackled quite successfully along with hooliganism. Both are more likely to be found in lower league clubs.
Not sure how this relates to Wirral South
‘If you’re talking about BNP/NF then there are a number of clubs that have had more trouble from fans with those kind of association than Chelsea. Millwall certainly have.’
I meant far right – bnp, combat 18, chelsea headhunters etc
At Stamford Bridge you regularly hear the chanting of Nazi songs, attacks on players based on race and lots of anti-semitic bile – despite the fact that Roman Abramovic, the billionaire owner and man who took them to the summit, is a jew himself
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if that was the case with Milwall too, but as they are not as high profile a club I wasn’t aware that they wetre still infiltartrated by the far right – whereas at Chelsea its plainly evident
Now you come to mention it. Chelsea fans probably are more likely to vote Tory, than fans of other clubs but I wouldn’t necessarily put it down to geograpohy of their fans who admitedly mostly come from the true blue South East – Tottenham and Arsenal have lots of southern fans
It came as no surprise whatsoever that George Osbourne and Bob Diamond are both huge Chelsea fans – so they both claoim anyway
I’m sure you’re right that George Osbourne and Bob Diamond are both huge Chelsea fans because they like chanting Nazi songs.
Do you work for Private Eye by any chance?
I mentioned them as they are both prominent Tories who support Chelsea – and you could add John Major, David Mellor and Ken Clarke to that list and I strongly suspect these three aren’t Chelsea fans because they sing sings about murdering jews, blacks, scousers and Lefies
Taking the discussion back To Wirral South I’m sure Alice McGovan is relieved to see the new boundary propsals dead in the water
“I mentioned them as they are both prominent Tories who support Chelsea”
…coincidentally in the same post as you talk about the BNP, Combat 18, Nazi chants, racial abuse of players and “anti-semitic bile”.
Dog-whistling might be a good strategy for writing a Focus leaflet but it’s a waste of time bothering with it on here. You are not going to change anybody’s vote on here because most posters are generally quite committed to one side or the other. In fact I can’t ever remember seeing a genuine floating voter post here.
Hemmelig, I don’t belong to any side nor am I a floating voter. I’ve said this before.
I know where I lie politically DGMW, and you may well know where as well, but I’ve made clear on here I can’t support the Labour Party because they are in my mind near-identical to the Tories.
There is a surprising tendency on some websites for posters to believe they are making the political weather (if only in a small way) rather than discussing it. This delusion is especially prevalent on Mike Smithson’s site.
The Results
Do you vote and if so and are willing to share, who for?
I do Joe R, but who that was I won’t say.
In any case, I don’t support anyone- I like to think I’m my own person at least when it comes to politics.
‘There is a surprising tendency on some websites for posters to believe they are making the political weather’
I don’t think any of the regular contributors here would be delluded enough to think that…
…or stupid enough to believe they can sway fellow contributors, nearly all of whom, as Hemelig says, have made up their minds which side if the political divide they are on many, many years ago
Chelsea are a club with a Neo-Nazi background – as are Milwall. Stating that simple fact isn’t going to cause anyone to switch allegiances either politocally or football wise – even if I do find myself scratrching my head when black or jewish people support or play for Chelsea…or in Abramnovic’s case, bankroll the club
And as we all know, the very point of this site is not for swaying other posters- That would go against the comments policy.
Wherever possible we do try our best to avoid partisan debates on here and regularly partake in psephological discussions.
I’ve never heard that Ken Clarke supported Chelsea. I thought he was more into Nottingham Forest which is in his constituency.
Tim, in order to spell Alison McGovern’s name correctly, you only need to go to the top of the thread where Anthony has done it for you. This applies to all constituency threads.
Time to get this discussion back on-topic. It mustn’t be forgotten that all the talk here on this thread was in fact started by Tory RE theaHeswall by-election. Now I’m ng to do what is probably a first for this site- I’m going to try to get a psephologixal talk going about the by-election with those who are interested. Those that aren’t on the other hand are by all means free to discuss football hooliganism or whatever. I think that’s a fair compromise, personally
Don’t disagree with you. I’m all in favour of relevant discussions.
Having said that, however, there was not long ago a discussion, would you believe it, on the Chippenham thread about sausages. (This is because of Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones’s making & marketing of them.) Pete Whitehead mentioned the sausages he likes, I have tried them, and found I agree with him. This has, even if only slightly, actually improved my life, and I’d like to thank you for that Pete. Sometimes these irrelevant discussions can lead to good things, certainly very good sausages.
Lib dems will win this with an 5-8,000 majority, with suspendors momentom already in the local elections.
the building blocks were in place with the SLD.
Fabulous local track record on the ground.
Gloy – sometimes comebacks by faded celebrities or old comedians are welcomed. Sometimes not.
In this case, the comeback is not welcomed.
Get new material, or get out.
In any case Barnaby I think the discussion on this thread is probably all but dead.
Maybe Gloy is actually Jim Davidson – he only seems to have one joke.
Funny you should mention Jim Davidson- The Masters snooker tournament is on at the moment, and Davidson hosted the successful snooker game show Big Break back in the 90′s with former player and current BBC commentator John Virgo.
Keeping on the Jim Davidson theme – Barnaby and The Results brough it up so they can’t complain like they usually do about it being off-topic – but I remember one of my late grandmothers being very fond of him – to the point where she went to see him doing stand up in some seadside town a fair few years ago – Yarmouth, Skegness, Morecambe, somewhere like that, I forget
She had expected the nice man on the TV but instead she got a tirade of effing and blinding, with no shortage of sexist and racist jokes. She left with about half of the audience – who were also pensioners – after about 10 minutes and never had a kind word to say about him since
Well, there you go.
People aren’t always what they seem in real life unfortunately.
I did bring up Jim Davidson, but only by way of criticizing Gloy Plopwell who was on topic, but of course very silly. Perhaps it’s better to go a little off topic than have silly predictions.
“There is a surprising tendency on some websites for posters to believe they are making the political weather (if only in a small way) rather than discussing it. This delusion is especially prevalent on Mike Smithson’s site.”
True but what’s also true is that individual commenters have picked up on issues far faster than the London bubble media did.
The danger of a split in the Conservative party caused by Cameron’s ‘metropolitanism’ for example.
Or, on a related issue, as some of us were explaining here years before the election the vulnerable area for Labour was in wwc constituencies not the urban trendies targetted by the ‘Cameron Project’.
Richard – yes, two different points I think. I’m all in favour of people doing their own analysis and reaching their own conclusions rather than lapping up and regurgitating the predictable biases of the mainstream media.
It’s people posting on sites (especially the obvious party hacks) thinking they are going to swing votes and elections with their take on the latest ‘events’ which I find amusing/sad.
No surprises in the Heswall by-election. Here are the % results with changes from 2012 bracketed.
Conservative 59 (-4)
UKIP 22 (+13)
Labour 14(-4)
Green 5 (-1)
A good performance by UKIP there- and no Tory to Labour swing at all since May 2012.
Heswall by-election result
Con 1254 58.8%
UKIP 460 21.6%
Lab 289 13.6%
Grn 110 5.2%
TUSC 19 0.9%
UKIP are up about 12% on last May with that rise coming equally from the LDs, Labour and the Conservatives
Not forgetting Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts, who managed 19 votes.
This would be an obvious target for a Con gain in 2015
after a 6,3% rise in 2010.
Yes, but as we’ve discussed at length, the seat is trending Labour. The Tories are still 11% points down on what they managed in 1992, Labour is 6% points up. I very much doubt a Conservative gain here, even in a good year.
The best thing for the Tories to do is cut their losses and push for a Wirral Deeside seat again at the next review.
Scott Bell selected by Tories.
He stood in Alyn and Deeside in 2011 Welsh Assembly elections and in Clwyd South in 2010 GE.
He also stood in Clwyd South in 2007 Welsh Assembly contest
Pensby by-election result: Labour gain from Cons. Labour 1,411 Cons 868 LibDem 834 UKIP 426 EngDem 53. Turnout 35%.