Windsor
2010 Results:
Conservative: 30172 (60.85%)
Labour: 4910 (9.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11118 (22.42%)
BNP: 950 (1.92%)
UKIP: 1612 (3.25%)
Green: 628 (1.27%)
Independent: 198 (0.4%)
Majority: 19054 (38.43%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21225 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 11032 (26.4%)
Labour: 7383 (17.6%)
Other: 2219 (5.3%)
Majority: 10193 (24.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21646 (49.5%)
Labour: 8339 (19.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11354 (26%)
Green: 1074 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2.5%)
Other: 182 (0.4%)
Majority: 10292 (23.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19900 (47.3%)
Labour: 10137 (24.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11011 (26.1%)
UKIP: 1062 (2.5%)
Majority: 8889 (21.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24476 (48.2%)
Labour: 9287 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 14559 (28.7%)
Referendum: 1676 (3.3%)
Other: 783 (1.5%)
Majority: 9917 (19.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Adam Afriyie(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Adam Afriyie(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Amanjit Jhund (Labour) Born Glasgow. Educated at Edinburgh university. Doctor and entrepeneur.
Julian Tisi (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of Reading. Chartered accountant.
Derek Wall (Green) Economics lecturer and author. Contested Bath 1987, Bristol 1989 European elections, Windsor 2005, South East 2009 European elections. Principle speaker of the Green Party 2006-2008.
John-Paul Rye (UKIP)Peter Phillips (BNP)Peter Hooper (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95092
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 18.3%
Born outside UK: 13.6%
White: 93.3%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 3.3%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 1%
Christian: 75.4%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.2%
Sikh: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 30.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.3%
Owner-Occupied: 73.9%
Social Housing: 10.7% (Council: 1.9%, Housing Ass.: 8.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4%
Dalek – might you be giving a new prediction for the Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election? I’ve compiled an average of all the predictions on the OE&S thread but I couldn’t include yours since it didn’t include a forecast for the Conservatives.
The Tories in Windsor and Maidenhead told me that there is a reasonable Labour vote there (more so than in Richmond and Twickenham) but that they don’t bother when they’re at a low ebb (such as 2007 when it faded to a very low level).
I think they did make some effort in the Park By-election.
I wan’t aware Oldfield was ever Labour. It is just about the poshest part of Maidenhead town covering the big houses along the river. AFAIK it was always a good Conservative ward.
Eton Wick was indeed Labour for a spell, it is actually rather unglamarous compared to Eton itself, although no doubt it has been “discovered” by the Thames Valley set and gentrified accordingly.
Labour also used to have strength in the Clewer area (the ordinary side of Windsor), which was masked somewhat by the local RA strength in locals. Plus, of course, the Foxborough ward of Slough that was in Windsor Const 1997 to 2010 was Labour-held (though reckoned to be pro-Tory in the 1992 GE…its loss in 1997 turned Slough into a notional Labour seat).
LD gain in Eton and Castle
Lib Dem 208 (47%)
Con 182 (41%)
Lab 32 (7%)
UKIP 17 (4%)
Unfortunately that is the case.
I was there this evening.
The big factor was a low turnout and people away.
Very hard to find people.
What is harder to tell, but suspect it’s true –
People seemed to think Cons had a large enough majority.
The Conservatives will, I’m sure, target it for 2015, on a better turnout.
“What is harder to tell, but suspect it’s true –
People seemed to think Cons had a large enough majority.”
I really never understand that mentality.
It doesn’t take much effort to vote does it.
The one area I thought would turn out best didn’t.
It is actually a more working class family based area with lots of Cs (although not last night).
But it didn’t turn out – looks like only about 15%.
I know there’s a tendency for losers to blame low turnout – clearly the LDs won across some people who thought they deserved a chance at the margins of those who were motivated to vote,
but lots of people seemed to not be there atall.
I’m a little bit annoyed we had this by-election. In my view it should have been avoided.
I’m always very wary of council by-elections – it’s something Tories often fall down on even when we’re ahead in the opinion polls,
but what’s done is done,
and I may be being unfair as don’t know all the facts.
JJB – why was it caused? How come a Cllr elected 3 months ago resigned?
Tories losing a ward with Eton & Castle in the name in the Royal Borough seems madness.
I’m sure the Lib Dems have often held that ward when they have controlled the council.
The Tory heartlands are in Ascot and Sunningdale. Windsor is much more Liberal (very affluent but has more Guardian types).
How strongly Tory are other areas such as Old Windsor & Datchet?
The Eton council seat was held by an independent lady for many years. She stood down in 2003 and the seat went Lib Dem. It was gained in 2007 by Liam Maxwell, who comfortably held it again this year. He stood down to work at 10 Downing Street.
Liam Maxwell is an Eton College master, and Eton College boys and staff contribute a considerable number of electors to the ward. Windsor Castle itself is also in the ward, and there are a few staff and teachers who live there.
In August many of the Eton College and castle staff are away from their term-time college accommodation, and therefore are unlikely to have voted. Hence a large drop in turnout.
Labour called the vote, which now looks a bit dim, as there only hope of a way back in Windsor and Maidenhead is if the Lib Dems are no longer seen as a credible alternative to the Conservatives.
I suspect there is not much read across to other wards -but once again shows that electors do not appreciate unnecessary byelections.
I’m surprised Adam Afriyie hasn’t gone on to greater things in the Conservative party.
Great thigns were expected of him when he was elected and he is after all the sort of person who would give the impression of ‘change’ that the Cameroons so like.
Perhaps he is yet another individual to whom David Cameron has taken a dislike to.
“Great thigns were expected of him when he was elected ”
because of the desire to have a strong BME politician at high level, is there a tendency to predict great things as soon as a BME candidate with London connections (because otherwise the London based media won’t notice him/her) is selected for a winnable seat?
All true.
But that doesn’t explain why AA hasn’t been promoted.
There is after all no shortage of mediocrities in the Conservative higher echelons.
The outlying areas of this single member ward are quite Conservative, but not that near the only polling station, which is in the centre of Eton village.
I’m not surprised people coming home from work in places about a mile or mile and a half away didn’t drive back into Eton central or walk to vote when we’d bothered them with this unnecessary by-election, at a time of year when people are perhaps not to tuned into politics.
There did seem to be a small but steady stream of people voting in the central area of the seat, and that’s where I criss crossed the Lib Dems quite a bit.
I’m also sure some people punished the Tories for this by-election.
Barnaby, Datchet is quite Conservative – but historically that hasn’t always been so.
Old Windsor probably is in a General Election, but is actually held by the Residents Association.
Cllrs Catherine and Tom Bursnall have defected to UKIP here. They’re referred to as the golden couple of photogenic, 30-year-olds in the local media. They cite the Budget as their main reason, although Tom has previously attacked the Coalition.
I find it odd when couples seem to have identical political views. I wonder what the probability of voting the same way as your partner is.
My wife is raving lefty and im at the economic right of the conservatives, while my parents were the other way around so ive always seen having very opposing views as normal.
I wonder what their actual problem with the budget is?
It was fairly right wing from start to finish. I could understand a very wet tory defecting leftwards, but a rightwards defection seems odd.
‘But that doesn’t explain why AA hasn’t been promoted.
There is after all no shortage of mediocrities in the Conservative higher echelons.’
Could it be said that Alfrie seems more interested in pursuing his business interests than his job as an MP – he’s certainly been very low profile since his election in 2005
If so, he wouldn’t be the only MP to fall into that category but if you take that approach you can’t really be surprised when promotion isn’t forthcoming
Former colleagues Robert Banks, Nick Hawkins and Jonathan Sayeed could all testify of what can happen when an MP’s heart doesn’t seem to be in it
Having said that Alfrie received a resounding endorsement at the last election so perhaps he’s an effective operator behind the scenes
‘It was fairly right wing from start to finish. I could understand a very wet tory defecting leftwards, but a rightwards defection seems odd.’
I disagree with that
There’s nothing right wing about raising the income tax thresehold and effectively taking hundreds of thousands of the low paid out of tax altogether
Likewwise taking a little more from poensioners who have benefiited from things denied to today’s younger generations – free university tuition, a universally free health service etc etc
And there’s nothing right wing about putting prevantative measures in place to tackle tax evasion
Perhaps these two objected to one of the above, or wanted the higher level of tax reduced further
Judging from the dreadful media headlines, I feel I’m in a minority of one in thinking that the budget was pretty good.
The utter hypocrisy of the left-wing press, in particular, stinks to high heaven.
For years, The Guardian has published hundreds of articles by people like Polly Toynbee and Will Hutton bemoaning the fact that baby boomers are sitting on their fat pensions and highly valued houses whilst their children and grandchildren are losing their jobs and can’t afford to buy a house.
The moment Osborne makes a very slight adjustment to acknowledge this very real intergenerational problem, the front page of The Guardian and The Independent lambasted him mercilessly – “pensioners pay for tax cut for rich”, etc.
Osborne had to tread a thin line between doing what the economy needs in order to encourage wealth creation, and acknowledging the difficult political realities in terms of public mood and his coalition partners.
I think he did very well.
Joe – they cited the lack of content for strivers, a bit like the Sun’s narrative. Also a failure of the Cabinet to chime with ordinary people, unlike Tebbit and Thatcher did in the ’80s and who inspired them to join.
To be fair to the Indy their editorial today is pretty supportive of the measures contained within the budget. Their only criticism is that they have been poorly presented. I would tend to agree.
‘The moment Osborne makes a very slight adjustment to acknowledge this very real intergenerational problem, the front page of The Guardian and The Independent lambasted him mercilessly – “pensioners pay for tax cut for rich”’
I agree to an extent – but you wouldn’t expect a budget which takes money from pensioners to fund a tax cut for the wealthiest members of society to be popular with left-wing newspapers
Besides, the most caustic criticisms came from right wing newspapers which share the poliical leanings of the bulk of the contributors to this site – like The Sun and Daily Mail – and yet they pale in comparison to the things these two newspapers in particular used to say about Brown’s Labour government
Like all budgets this contained the good, the bad and the indifferent and the criticism which seems to stand out is the way the givernment chose to present their ‘granny tax’ which strikes me as valid
“I agree to an extent – but you wouldn’t expect a budget which takes money from pensioners to fund a tax cut for the wealthiest members of society to be popular with left-wing newspapers”
The money from pensioners is funding an increase in the income tax allowance.
The “tax cut for the wealthiest in society”
(a) isn’t a tax cut – it is the partial reversal of a recent unsuccessful increase
(b) doesn’t need to be funded as it didn’t bring in any money
Both the media and the Labour party’s slant on this issue is utterly disengenuous.
Indeed, very much so.
The one criticism I would have with it, as I expressed on the Tatton thread, was with fuel duty – it seems the fair fuel stabiliser only applies when the oil price is too low, not when it’s too high, and this is a huge error of judgement in my belief.
Otherwise I’m not sure what the fuss is all about – it’s not like they have REALLY robbed Granny to pay Tarquin.
Tim Jones
Tax cuts are right wing. Lower benefits is right wing. Stopping tax avoidance is commonsense.