Wiltshire North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 25114 (51.57%)
Labour: 3239 (6.65%)
Liberal Democrat: 17631 (36.2%)
UKIP: 1908 (3.92%)
Green: 599 (1.23%)
Independent: 208 (0.43%)
Majority: 7483 (15.37%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22412 (51.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 14858 (33.9%)
Labour: 5025 (11.5%)
Other: 1563 (3.6%)
Majority: 7554 (17.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26282 (46.9%)
Labour: 6794 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 20979 (37.4%)
UKIP: 1428 (2.5%)
Other: 578 (1%)
Majority: 5303 (9.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 24090 (45.5%)
Labour: 7556 (14.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 20212 (38.2%)
UKIP: 1090 (2.1%)
Majority: 3878 (7.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25390 (43.8%)
Labour: 8261 (14.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 21915 (37.8%)
Referendum: 1774 (3.1%)
Other: 673 (1.2%)
Majority: 3475 (6%)
Boundary changes: North Wiltshire undergoes major changes, losing the main town in the old constituency, Chippenham, which forms the core of a new constituency, while gaining Calne and Cricklade.
Profile: A mainly rural seat on the edge of the Cotswolds. The main town is Calne, once dominated by the Pork industry, but now a rapidly growing town based around light industry and IT. Other towns include Cricklade, Wootton Bassett and Malmsbury, home to Dyson – although since 2002 their manufacturing division has been moved to Malaysia leaving their research and development in Malmesbury.
Wiltshire North is normally considered to be a safe Conservative seat, however in 2007 the sitting Conservative MP James Gray narrowly avoiding being deselected after it was revealed he had an affair while his wife was suffering from breast cancer. During the deselection attempt there were suggestions from Gray`s opponents that he would face an independent challenger if he managed to be re-selected. Other parties will be hoping that Gray`s personal life has an impact on his vote at the next election.
Current MP: James Gray(Conservative) born 1954, Glasgow. Educated at Glasgow High and the University of Glasgow. Former city broker, special advisor to Michael Howard and John Gummer and director of a public affairs consultancy. First elected as MP for Wiltshire North in 1997. Contested Ross, Cromarty & Skye in 1992. Opposition whip from 2000-2001. Shadow Minister for Defence from 2001-2002, Shadow minister for the countryside from 2002 to 2005 and very briefly Shadow secretary of state for Scotland (more information at They work for you)
James Gray(Conservative) born 1954, Glasgow. Educated at Glasgow High and the University of Glasgow. Former city broker, special advisor to Michael Howard and John Gummer and director of a public affairs consultancy. First elected as MP for Wiltshire North in 1997. Contested Ross, Cromarty & Skye in 1992. Opposition whip from 2000-2001. Shadow Minister for Defence from 2001-2002, Shadow minister for the countryside from 2002 to 2005 and very briefly Shadow secretary of state for Scotland (more information at They work for you)Jason Hughes (Labour) Mike Evemy (Liberal Democrat) Market communications controller for the Nationwide Building Society. Swindon Borough councillor since 1992, Liberal Democrat group leader between 1994-2004. Contested Swindon North 1997 & 2005.Phil Chamberlain (Green)Charles Bennett (UKIP) Born 1958, Oxford. Educated at Ampleforth and SOAS. Former army officer and police inspector.Philip Allnatt (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81085
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 98.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 77%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 23.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.1%
Owner-Occupied: 75.5%
Social Housing: 11.2% (Council: 0.9%, Housing Ass.: 10.3%)
Privately Rented: 7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
I wonder what the general feeling is towards James Gray now. Are there any more threats regarding deselection? However, whenever the next election comes along,I think that he will hold on by around 5000 votes.
Unfortunately I think Gray’s majority will easily exceed 5,000 at the next election
Except for a tiny handul, most voters (particulartly Tory ones) couldn’t care less about what Gray did to his wife – although I hope his opponents within his local association put their money where their mouth is and go with a candidate of their own – and that he or she takes enough votes away from Gray to stop him winning
I think that’s just wishful thinking on my part though
What evidence does Tim Jones have that Tory voters ‘particularly’ are less likely to vote against a candidate of their preferred party because of some moral objection to their activities?
The Tories should win a 10,000 majority; they would only need a smallish swing to achieve that. Most of the Lib Dem momentum was situated in the Chippenham area, so I can’t see them doing well in this seat.
If there were any justice in this World, James Gray would lose his seat, but, fortunately for him, there isn’t.
Pete, yes, that fervent loyalty towards Labour is still a potent (if declining) factor in politics, and it is astonishing how many Labour voters are willing to vote for someone who despises everything they believe in (though some Tory voters, like those in Buckingham, do the same).
I spy –
the next Solihull.
Not really – The Tory majority should increase as it’s already substantial, but they should work it in case.
Most people vote for the party rather than the candidate, which is actually fairly rational: even the most rebellious and outspoken MPs are likely to actually vote with the Whip in over 90% of cases, and will only really change the course of legislation in an a tiny number of cases over a Parliament.
That is true and I am probably fairly exceptional in basing my own party loyalty on internal factions and that goes back a long way – even in 1987 when I first voted and when I more closely identified with the Conservative party than at any time since, I had determined that if I lived a few hundred yards further south and had Hugh Dykes rather than Cecil Parkinson as candidate I would not have voted for him, but then Dykes was pretty exceptional. In 1992 I voted for the candidate (Nick Budgen) rather than the party and in 1997 I voted against the candidate (the extreme left David Platt in Cambridge) more than I was voting against the party, although there was an element of the latter also.
Agree completely with Sean Fear and Pete Whitehead on the loyalty of the Labour vote in its heartlands.
I grew up in a mining family in North Nottinghamshire. Any of us who dared suggest that we might not vote Labour got a long, loud lecture from my great uncle, who was an NUM delegate for many years. He became a miner in the 1930s and never forgot the harsh conditions and callous attitude of the mine owners pre-nationalisation. For him, not supporting Labour was akin to going down a slippery slope back to those days, and even through his politics were far less like Tony Blair’s than mine are, he and his family always voted and always voted Labour.
Whilst not expecting a ballot paper to rival the Newbury-by-election in size, I wonder if a fair few spoiler candidates will stand here against James Gray?
What evidence does Tim Jones have that Tory voters ‘particularly’ are less likely to vote against a candidate of their preferred party because of some moral objection to their activities?
Because William Hague when Tory leader insisted that the Tories would from, then on (he was talking in 1998 I think) differentiate between financial sleaze (which would result in the boot) and sexual sleaze (which wouldn’t)
And this is essentially a very sad case of sexual sleaze
And less face it, if having extra-marital affairs were enough to put potential Tory voters off voting altogether, the Conservative Party in the House of Commons be reduced to a mere handful of MPs
Call me old fashioned but I believe in right and wrong and what James Gray did in my opinion was wrong – plain and simple – and just as with Mark Oaten and/or Greg Barker – it would be enough to put me off voting for him (not that I’d ever vote for him anyway, but that’s not the point)
That doesn’t mean that Tory voters would be more inclined to vote for a candidate who betrayed his wife (and I use the masculine because the vast majority of Tory MPs are male). What I do remember is the old distinction, that Labour MPs tended to be floored by financial scandals (being the party of the working class, at least in former times) while the same applied for Tories with sexual scandals (as benefitting the party of ‘family values’).
“Because William Hague when Tory leader insisted that the Tories would from, then on (he was talking in 1998 I think) differentiate between financial sleaze (which would result in the boot) and sexual sleaze (which wouldn’t)”
Well this position is really an early example of a ‘modernising’ agenda in which the party would not seek to take a strident position on private sexual morality. I think that position is broadly correct actually. Adultery is not illegal and is a private matter and something that a large proportion of the population engage in. It also has no bearing on one’s ability to do the job of MP. Financial impropriety is obviously a a different matter.
Ellie Bland (former Conservative) has been selected by UKIP here.
Pete, I think that the term ‘adultery’ by itself doesn’t really describe this case – it was the complete heartlessness demonstrated by Gray when his wife was at her lowest ebb, that shocked and disgusted everybody. Yes, adultery is common, and even commoner among MPs (probably because of couples being separated a good deal of the time). These days few condemn that, although there are those voters around who will vote for someone else if they detect it.
Ellie Bland is in a way the reason I joined UKIP. Although my membership had lapsed even before David Cameron became leader, I still counted myself as a supporter of the Conservative party albeit increasingly unhappy with the direction it was taking under his leadership.
Ellie Bland was a Conservative town councillor in Calne (in this seat) who was expelled for forwarding an email containing a satirical poem on the subject of immigration. This grotesque example of politically correct thought policing, which would have been worthy of Islington council, made me realise that I needed to find a new political home altogether.
Although unfortunately she lost her seat in May UKIP actually polled more votes in Calne than the Liberal Democrats in those town council elections and this would seem to be fruitful territory for the party, who might also benefit to an extent from any disillusion arising from the antics of the Conservative MP here.
Tim – fortuitously I was posting on this thread but on an unrelated matter at the same time. The position I am taking on this is that in psephological terms I dont believe the repercussions of this will be all that great, although I have acknowledged some possibilty in my last sentence above. I dont in any way seek to defend the actions of James Gray which from what I can gether are fairly indefensible, although since I havent followed the case in detail I would demur from total condemnation either.
Well, Pete, of you think forwarding that sort of email is appropriate, it says a lot about why the Tories have been out of power for the past three elections.
I don’t think UKIP have a hope of winning or even doing all that well in any general election.
I am interested in the Ellie Bland expulsion you mention, Pete. If, as you say, it was satire she forwarded, that seems ridiculous. Was it, perhaps interpreted as racism? For comparison, I have recently forwarded an American article (meant as satirical of orthodox Jewish literal interpretation of the Torah, but could easily be taken as satirical of US right-wing biblical fundamentalism), which was forwarded to me by another Lib Dem. I have since discovered that there was a racial reference in there which I didn’t at the time understand (neither did my friend forwarding it to me, I don’t think). If we were considered for expulsion on that basis, I would feel particularly aggrieved! And I would not expect it in the LDs. If I had been nakedly racist, I would expect my party to take severe action.
Tim – I believe the poem was interpreted as ‘racist’ by the kind of po-faced lefties represented on this site by Merseymike but that most reasonable people would not see it as such and therefore it was very depressing to find the Conservative party reacting in this knee-jerk fashion.
Mike – I dont believe your analysis of the reasons for Conservative defeat in recent general elections is correct. I do however think that the kind of censorious mentality you display provides a better explanation for the poor performance of your ideological soul mates like Paul Baotang in Herts West in 1983, rather than the explanation that you alleged.
On your other point I wasnt suggesting for a moment that UKIP could win this seat – just that they might achieve a better than average result here and that may be a factor if the result becomes closer between the two main contenders.
I dont believe UKIP will any parliamntary seats on the FPTP system, nor will the BNP and its pretty unlikely that the Green party will. I dont think that is a reason why the prospects of thse smaller parties should not be discussed in those areas where they do have pockets of strength.
Reading the BBC version on the website, by no means a full quote of what was there, it seems Ellie Bland was let down badly by her husband, if we believe her account that he posted it. Their quote at the end “Piss off we’re full” (or something) is certainly offensive – and I hope I am not “po-faced”!
I don’t know what the fuss is about
UKIP might get votes from people from all across the political spectrum (which surprises me) but the people UKIP target are clearly right-wing Conservatives and middle class people who just can’t bring themselves to vote for a socialist & working class party in the form of the BNP
This is not to say that all people who vote UKIP are racist but it does explain why people like Robert Kilroy-Silk were welcomed into their fold with open arms
It was David Cameron who described UKIP members as mostly ‘fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists’ and whilst I’m sure there are some decent people within it (Pete, for example) it remains [edited out partisan comment - AW. Who UKIP might take votes from is on topic. The shocking news that they aren't to your taste isn't]
Which seat was UKIP closest to winning last time? I seem to recall Bexhill and Battle being cited as their Number 1 target at either the last general election or the one before.
I would agree – although the party performs well in the Euro Parliament elections, barely any of their candidates are likely to save their deposits let alone win a seat at the next general election under FPTP (although the Greens may have a chance of winning Brighton Kemptown).
However, by attracting support from largely right-wing Conservatives, I think UKIP are inadvertently letting in a small number of Labour and LibDem candidates of a Europhile federalist persuasion, which one would surely think they would be trying to avoid.
Brighton Pavilion is the seat the Greens think they are going to win – although my own view is that the better they do, the more likely they are to split the left wing/liberal vote and let the Tories sneak in on something like 26% of the vote
Fringe parties like the Greens and UKIP really need to be realistic
Having one MP in the house is going to make very little difference for either party – and the best they can do is hope to pressurise other parties to adopt their aims
UKIP is beginning to recognise that by standing in certain seats they are more likely to end up with a more pro-European Labour MP than an anti-European Conservative one – and I don’t see how that helps their ultimate cause
[Deleted partisan comments about the Tories now. Two in a row on one thread? Tim - the majority of comments I have to edit are from you, please try and control yourself or I'll put all your comments on moderation.]
Brighton Pavilion, yes. (not Kemptown)
Precisely what I meant, of course.
Ellie Bland just came a poor third in a by-election in her home taown of Calne in a Ward where UKIP finished a good second behind the Conservatives last May. The Lib Dems came from third place to win putting their vote up 10%. The BNP and Greens also stood but came 4th and 5th with 10% and 3% respectively
One wonders if the furore surrounding James Gray has all been forgotten or is there still an attempt to put up a strong independent candidate against him.
Labour have selected Jason Hughes here.
James Gray seems to be in a spot of bother over his decision to claim for the cost of Remembrance Day wreaths. Apparently purchasing the wreaths left him £60 out of pocket.
Ouch!
That’ll hurt.
Stick that on a leaflet next to Nick Clegg and Joanna Lumley!
The local party had a chance to deselect him back at the end of 2006, and they missed the opportunity imho. If he stays on and stands here at the next election, I wouldn’t like to bet that he will win here.
Looking at the candidate lists for the Unitary elections today I am astonished that there is not a single Labour candidate standing for any of the Calne wards as far as I can see.
These are my estimates based on 4 June 2009 elections (best fit):
Con 15600 (53.96%) (all 18 seats contested) LD 9132 (31.59%) (18 contested) UKIP 973 (3.37%) (5) Lab 638 (2.21%) (8) Green 544 (1.88%) (3) BNP 91 (0.31%) (2) Ind 1934 (6.69%) (5)
Con win 15 out of 18.
I think it was a good result for the Tories here: over half the vote, comfortably ahead of the Lib Dems. It should be a fairly comfortable hold at the next election despite the bad publicity James Gray has attracted at times.
I am now the UKIP candidate for North Wiltshire (see UKIP/UKIPSW website). Ellenor Bland is no longer associated with the North Wiltshire and Chippenham Branch of UKIP in any way, or as far as I am aware with UKIP as a party at all.
Which seats have included the village of Box, well known as the location of Peter Gabriel’s Real World Studios?
Cons Hold= 11,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 12800
Con maj 7,000
I’ve been talking to friends with close connections in this constituency, and the general opinion is that there will be no big surprises here.
Mr Gray is widely considered to be odious by all of the people I spoke to (who are all Tory leaning). His treatment of his ex wife was pretty low – and his mistress also had a husband and family of her own, who were also devastated by what happened. Invoicing the taxpayer for his poppy wreath doesn’t play well either.
I have no doubt that there will be quite a few Tories abstaining here, and some voting UKIP, on account of the Gray factor. But my friends are of the opinion that this will simply not be enough to hand the seat to the Lib Dems. Ant-Gray feeling is likely to cause Tories to abstain or vote UKIP, but not switch directly to the Lib Dems; and with such a very low Labour vote anyway, it is hard to see the Lib Dems picking up much in the way of tactical voters.
CON HOLD
Despite James Gray’s expenses problems, there was a tiny swing to the Conservatives from the LDs in this seat.
That’s according to the official notional figures from Rallings & Thrasher.
There was a small swing to the LDs using the UKPR figures.
James Grey has shown his opposition to part of the Government’s pension reforms. Allegedly there is a growing backbench revolt on this ( according to the BBC ).