Westmorland and Lonsdale
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18632 (36.19%)
Labour: 1158 (2.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 30896 (60.01%)
UKIP: 801 (1.56%)
Majority: 12264 (23.82%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21792 (46%)
Conservative: 20956 (44.3%)
Labour: 3651 (7.7%)
Other: 928 (2%)
Majority: 836 (1.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22302 (44.9%)
Labour: 3796 (7.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22569 (45.5%)
UKIP: 660 (1.3%)
Other: 309 (0.6%)
Majority: 267 (0.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22486 (46.9%)
Labour: 5234 (10.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19339 (40.4%)
UKIP: 552 (1.2%)
Other: 292 (0.6%)
Majority: 3147 (6.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21470 (42.3%)
Labour: 10459 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 16949 (33.4%)
Referendum: 1931 (3.8%)
Majority: 4521 (8.9%)
Boundary changes: loses Broughton-in-Furness and part of the Crake Valley to Barrow & Furness.
Profile: A large rural seat in Cumbria. The seat includes Kendal, Windermere, Sedbergh, Kirkby Lonsdale and Ambleside, but not the historic county town of Appleby-in-Westmorland. It also includes Lake Windermere, Coniston Water and much of the Lake District. The local economy is largely based on agriculture and tourism. In 2005 the Conservative shadow minister Tim Collins was defeated in the seat, the lone victim of what had been described as a Liberal Democrat decapitation strategy against Conservative frontbenchers in marginal seats.
Current MP: Tim Farron(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Preston. Educated at Lostock Hall School and University of Newcastle. Unsuccesfully contested Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2001 prior to his election in 2005. Served briefly as Lib Dem spokesman for youth affairs before being appointed as PPS to Menzies Campbell after the 2006 leadership election. Countryside spokesman from 2007, he resigned in March 2008 to support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (more information at They work for you)
Gareth McKeever (Conservative) Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
Jonathan Todd (Labour) Born 1980, Whitehaven. Educated at Millom School and Durham University. Economist.Tim Farron(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Preston. Educated at Lostock Hall School and University of Newcastle. Unsuccesfully contested Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2001 prior to his election in 2005. Served briefly as Lib Dem spokesman for youth affairs before being appointed as PPS to Menzies Campbell after the 2006 leadership election. Countryside spokesman from 2007, he resigned in March 2008 to support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (more information at They work for you)
John Mander (UKIP) born Ambleside. Educated at Oxford University. Former teacher and auctioneer. Contested Lancaster and Wyre 2005. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82587
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 19.3%
Over 60: 27.7%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 10.7% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 10%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
You are mixing up liberal and libertarian.
And of course “liberal” means different things to different people.
Richard Shepherd certainly isn’t all that socially liberal.
I think it’s ridiculous to suggest, as TheResults appears to, that Tim Farron will NEVER lose this seat. I do agree that he won’t lose it next time though.
It doesn’t seem that far-fetched to envisage Labour gaining either Battersea or Preseli Pembs – if there were a general election now (yes I know that won’t happen) they would probably be gained. Scarborough & Whitby is harder & Brecon/Radnorshire is obviously impossible. Having said that, I too have no confidence in Electoral Calculus.
Disagree with you about Battersea. Labour wouldn’t win it in an election held tomorrow.
Remember the demographics have shifted even further away from labour in the last two and a half years. The Labour vote is basically marooned in Latchmere and everywhere else is now strongly Conservative.
On current boundaries it’s basically a safe Tory seat now.
Just two points really:
First, yes, I am resigned to the fact that Farron probably won’t lose his seat next time. I wouldn’t rule it out forever though.
Second, yes Electoral Calculus is absolute rubbish and I’m not entirely sure why it is held in such high regard by the section of people that hang on its every word.
I think if you came to this site before the last election and looked at the range of predictions given by the regular contributors, you’d generally have a much better idea of what was going to happen than if you went to Electoral Calculus.
I don’t pay it much attention, I’m afraid.
I personally haven’t detected much further change since 2010 – I’d have thought that the damage from Labour’s point of view had already been done by then – and I visit the constituency very frequently. That isn’t to say you may not be right though. Labour are still capable of beating the Tories in Queenstown; the other wards are all safe Tory now & it would be a question of whether the Labour lead in Latchmere & Queenstown is sufficient to match the Tory lead in the other 5. It wouldn’t be easy to say the least and when it comes to the next general election I’d be very surprised if I end up predicting anything other than CON HOLD – but I am not 100% sure yet. Even the Tory wards have their less salubrious parts still; I recently spent a long while in Balham ward (and yes, I am enough of an anorak to have checked the ward boundaries!) for a work project & it didn’t seem as upmarket as I’d thought it would be. Obviously the Tories would still have a majority in the ward, but I’d have thought it wouldn’t be overwhelming in the current climate. The same goes for Shaftesbury and to some extent Fairfield, broadly speaking, though I accept that Northcote is very very safe Tory these days (it’s been pretty safe for years really). It’s only St Mary’s Park which for some reason I don’t seem to have spent much time in, so I can’t comment on that. Sorry to have stayed off-topic.
Re Shaun’s comment he is right about Electoral Calculus. Pete, Shaun himself & several others have made much better predictions. Even some of mine were OK though I did make fairly numerous mistakes. In general many people overestimated the Cleggasm & predicted some LD gains which in hindsight are plainly ridiculous & the polls by & large failed to detect the last-minute return of voters to both Lab & Con, though that isn’t true in all cases.
It’s worth looking at this morning’s national polls, which have Labour in unusually large leads in both ICM/Guardian & TNS/BMRB (the company I work for, though I don’t do opinion polls for elections). YouGov however is fairly typical of the last few weeks.
“I’d have thought that the damage from Labour’s point of view had already been done by then”
There’s still plenty of scope for benefit caps and gentrification of the estates at the Clapham Junction end of the constituency to force out more Labour voters.
Labour’s only hope in Battersea would be to win over a lot of banker and yuppie voters, which can only really happen if they are led by someone like Blair and the Tories are simultaneously led by a Hague or IDS. I would imagine Putney and Wimbledon would be similar. Ed Miliband’s large poll lead does not include large numbers of those kinds of voters and the Tories would hold all three seats quite easily.
”I think it’s ridiculous to suggest, as TheResults appears to, that Tim Farron will NEVER lose this seat. I do agree that he won’t lose it next time though.”
Barnaby, that isn’t what I meant. If anything I do think the Liberal Democrats will lose this one day with a different candidate, but probably not as long Tim Farron stands.
On the same boundaries Preseli was held by the Tories (indeed the other, more marginal East Pembrokeshire seat was held too) by 8 points in 2011. It would take a real landslide for Labour to take it now, it has shifted quite dramatically to the tories since 1997.
The lack of an equivalent recovery post 2010 for labour suggests that this is a real swing rather than the area having a high number of swing voters.