Westmorland and Lonsdale
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18632 (36.19%)
Labour: 1158 (2.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 30896 (60.01%)
UKIP: 801 (1.56%)
Majority: 12264 (23.82%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21792 (46%)
Conservative: 20956 (44.3%)
Labour: 3651 (7.7%)
Other: 928 (2%)
Majority: 836 (1.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22302 (44.9%)
Labour: 3796 (7.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22569 (45.5%)
UKIP: 660 (1.3%)
Other: 309 (0.6%)
Majority: 267 (0.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22486 (46.9%)
Labour: 5234 (10.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 19339 (40.4%)
UKIP: 552 (1.2%)
Other: 292 (0.6%)
Majority: 3147 (6.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21470 (42.3%)
Labour: 10459 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 16949 (33.4%)
Referendum: 1931 (3.8%)
Majority: 4521 (8.9%)
Boundary changes: loses Broughton-in-Furness and part of the Crake Valley to Barrow & Furness.
Profile: A large rural seat in Cumbria. The seat includes Kendal, Windermere, Sedbergh, Kirkby Lonsdale and Ambleside, but not the historic county town of Appleby-in-Westmorland. It also includes Lake Windermere, Coniston Water and much of the Lake District. The local economy is largely based on agriculture and tourism. In 2005 the Conservative shadow minister Tim Collins was defeated in the seat, the lone victim of what had been described as a Liberal Democrat decapitation strategy against Conservative frontbenchers in marginal seats.
Current MP: Tim Farron(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Preston. Educated at Lostock Hall School and University of Newcastle. Unsuccesfully contested Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2001 prior to his election in 2005. Served briefly as Lib Dem spokesman for youth affairs before being appointed as PPS to Menzies Campbell after the 2006 leadership election. Countryside spokesman from 2007, he resigned in March 2008 to support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (more information at They work for you)
Gareth McKeever (Conservative) Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
Jonathan Todd (Labour) Born 1980, Whitehaven. Educated at Millom School and Durham University. Economist.Tim Farron(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Preston. Educated at Lostock Hall School and University of Newcastle. Unsuccesfully contested Westmorland & Lonsdale in 2001 prior to his election in 2005. Served briefly as Lib Dem spokesman for youth affairs before being appointed as PPS to Menzies Campbell after the 2006 leadership election. Countryside spokesman from 2007, he resigned in March 2008 to support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (more information at They work for you)
John Mander (UKIP) born Ambleside. Educated at Oxford University. Former teacher and auctioneer. Contested Lancaster and Wyre 2005. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82587
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 19.3%
Over 60: 27.7%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 10.7% (Council: 7.6%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 10%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
Well for me it remains Simon Hughes who really gets me particularly annoyed even by the standards of his party. In the Lords I still find Paddy Ashdown’s high moral you-weren’t-in-Bosnia-like-me-so-you-don’t-understand-and-aren’t-a-hero-like-me tone very grating, that constant look of pained and feigned sincerity etched on to his visage most irritating.
I do realise that this is contrary to the comments policy so I don’t mind in the least if Anthony deletes this & other previous offending posts.
Barnaby you describe Ashdown perfectly and I’m sure you speak for many of us, whether it breacehs the comments policy or not
Quite.
Barnaby put it well.
Lib Dems also talk a lot longer – and usually about themselves about how marvellous they are.
But you usually find it never threads together into anything logical.
Surely there must be a good few thousand from both the 2 main parties who couldn’t stomach voting for Farron again.
Thanks Pete & Joe but in deference to our LD contributors, who seem pretty decent people, I will refrain from adding further to my list of political dislikes.
I agree with that too.
I have been trying not to (except just on this thread)
so apologise for any offence.
Ashdown at it again on BBC Question Time this evening. On the topic of Scottish Independence he couldn’t help but give it the old ‘I have experience of countries breaking up into smaller parts’. When asked by Dimbleby if he was referring to Bosnia he replied ‘of course I’m not making comparisons’. So then why even mention it, if it not a comparable situation it must have no relevance? Of course it is because he must preface the answer to every question by highlighting his experience exactly in the way that barnaby described. It seems almost as if he doesn;t have confidence in the case he is making (Actually I didn;t listen very much to what he said after that) but his attitude seems almost to be it doesn;t matter so much what he is saying as it does who is saying it, and we should all be suitably persuaded that he is right purely by force of his own eminence. Insufferable man.
I saw that – he waffles too much aswell – even Dimbleby had to shut him up.
Kelvin McKenzie was hilarious about the breast implants – comparing it to buying a car with the clutch broken.
Apologies in advance for the partisan pro-Tory comment (I’ve tried to keep previous, and will keep future comments as neutral as possible) but…..
….completely agree regarding comments on Ashdown. As is so often said in life, if you have confidence/gravitas you don’t need to try and prove it, and he really would be well advised to drop the “I have to tell you” and “I’m sooooo wise” demeanour. It’s rare to witness an individual outdo Douglas Alexander in the “most annoying individual” stakes….
Actually, and I didn’t think I’d say this before the programme, I actually thought Justine Greening came across well. Whether one agrees with her or not she must surely represent the kind of politicians that are more likely to at least earn some form of respect from the public, in that she was actually quite direct, succinct and didn’t seem to duck questions.
Personally I thought Paddy Ashdown spoke a lot of sense, not just on Scotland but on freedom of the press.
My wife is pretty apolitical, her comment on Justine Greening being that she looks bad on TV and very much could do with getting a facial done.
Kelvin McKenzie always pretty good.
It’s ironic that Ashdown & David Owen ended up in opposing parties since temperamentally they have so much in common, Ashdown hasn’t perhaps quite matched Owen’s unique arrogance but he will get there soon.
‘Kelvin McKenzie always pretty good’
Interesting to see him extent an argument I’ve always made – that it’s in the Tory Party’s interest to see Scotland gaining independence and that most Tory MP’s no longer supoort the Union, whereas Labour and the Lib Dems do
I think he’s 10 years ahead of his time – but I agree with him that in secret David Cameron probably wants Scotland out of the UK and has embarked on a cunning Palpatine-esque stategy to make it happen
I always thought that their unequivocal support for the Union was one of the Tory Party’s more appealing features
I think the truth is more nuanced than that.
Basically the Tories are in a win-win situation on Scotland.
If Salmond gets independence, as Tim says it will result in a huge inbuilt Tory advantage in general elections for the rest of the UK.
If (more likely) Scotland rejects full independence, Cameron will trumpet how his statesmanship saved the union.
I think by far the most likely outcome is some form of “devo-max”. This will most likely be in the Tories’ and England’s long-term interests as the price for Westminster approval will almost certainly include Barnett subsidies being scrapped and the west Lothian question being answered, possibly restricting the voting abilities of Scottish MPs and reducing their number further. At the same time the integrity of the monarchy, the pound and our defence/foredign policy capabilities will be maintained.
Labour will lose out hugely either through full independence or devo-max. The Tories can afford to shrug their shoulders, and indeed their interference in the debate will be resented in Scotland, as Salmond well knows. For these reasons only Labour can mount a credible anti-independence campaign north of the border – happily for Salmond they show no signs of being able to do so. They need to get all their Scottish big guns on board pummelling the media with the advantages of the union – that means Brown, Reid, Darling, Murphy and Alexander.
Already signs of Alastair Darling getting more involved; personally I hope this continues. He & Douglas Alexander are perhaps the most credible figures of those you mentioned, It’s possible that on the LD side past leaders Campbell & Kennedy could make important contributions too.
The Lib Dems are a busted flush in Scotland and should probably take a back seat from the campaign unless they want to be sitting ducks for the SNP.
Darling and Alexander are good but both are middle class intellectuals. Labour badly needs a gritty Scottish bruiser who can convince the working class of Glasgow in their own language why they need to keep the union. A kind of Scottish John Prescott. John Reid would be ideal.
Also, Gordon Brown should be heavily involved. He might be a laughing stock in the rest of the UK, but Brown remains a well-liked and very respected figure in Scotland, as results in the general election clearly showed. Just like in the 1975 EC referendum yes campaign, where Heath took the lead and Thatcher took a back seat. Ed Miliband or Johann Lamont leading the no to independence campaign would be a complete and utter disaster.
John Reid could do it – I suspect he
was effective in the AV referendum
as the sensible Labour voters across
the country ignored the cliquey North London wet liberals
and this combined with a decent Tory turnout
killed it.
I take the point that Devo Max
could maintain things which collectively
make the UK stronger
but why should Scotland be allowed to keep the
same currency without a vote by the whole of the UK aswell?
Surely it’s put up or shut up time,
i.e. a 2 way choice.
‘Surely it’s put up or shut up time,
i.e. a 2 way choice.’
I’d love that but unfortunately I suspect Salmond would love for this to be dragged out for years due to legal challenges etc.
In my opinion there is no mandate for devo max to put in the referendum as well (as it can only really come about from proper negotiation and cross party consensus etc).
I have to agree with H. Hemmlig.
I can’t get too worked up over the future of Scotland anymore. I am convinced the people of Scotland will reject independence anyway, but any question markover it in my view only really causes worries for the Labour Party and Lib Dems.
Any successful campaign against independence has GOT to be led by Labour figures in Scotland. Tory and Lib Dem leaders-particularly those from south of the border-will only alienate people in Scotland. The truth of course is that ALL those Scottish Labour figures and more have a large part to play.
On devo-max I have to say it sounds fair enough-although I’m not sure it should be the subjectof any referendum. Surely increasing the scottish parliaments powers can and should be done without referendum. Only abolition or reduction in its powers would require one surely.
But if Scotland were to have complete fiscal independence and would-as I understand it-raise ALL of their own money and spend all of their own money, firstly I think that would be good for the rest of the UK because it would mean that Scotland’s unsustainable political system would at last be brought with a crash back down to reality as scottish people have to finally make tough decisions about what they fund.
and secondly, I would argue such a situation in Scotland should mean a very very substantial reduction in the number of Scottish MPs attending Westminster (I mean down to something like 10 or 15 representing very very large European like constituencies). Given that scotland would effectively be independent in all but name with devo-max, Scottish MPs can no longer be allowed to have an over-powerful voice at Westminster as well. There would simply be little need for more than about 15 Scottish MPs in the ‘new world’.
In addition to what I said above, as an example I would suggest a devo-max situation would put Scotland in a similar position to Ireland after 1922. Technically the Irish parliament was still really only a form of ‘home rule’ that could have been removed at any time by Westminster up until 1949 (although of course they never would have done). And southern Ireland returned NO MPs to Westminster.
So no need for Scotland to return more than a dozen or so in their similar situation.
“I take the point that Devo Max
could maintain things which collectively
make the UK stronger
but why should Scotland be allowed to keep the
same currency without a vote by the whole of the UK aswell?”
Presumably you mean in the case of full independence? Under devo max there would be no question that Scotland would keep the pound and the Bank of England would remain its central bank.
Personally I do not see the advantage to England in making it hard for the Scots to get their independence or devo max if that’s what they want. It is up to them to decide. If they decide they want to keep the pound it would be more a question of whether they would be truly independent as their interest rates etc would still be set by London according to the conditions of the non-Scottish economy. Also as with Greece, Italy etc, there would be strict rules about their fiscal arrangements should they want to continue to use the pound which should protect the rest of the UK.
If we negotiate a fair deal, devo-max should work out well for both England and Scotland. Personally I would trade most of the North Sea oil revenues, which will be temporary given that the oil will run out one day, in return for the end of Barnett subsidies and the satisfactory solving of the West Lothian question, both of which would be permanent improvements for the English.
I don’t particularly want to make it hard for them
by creating difficulties
but I do think the point needs to be made
that an a la carte menu
selected by the Scots/SNP
pretending it’s full independence when there are public spending decisions for us all
needs to be properly thought through.
Will come back shortly on other interesting points made here
Shaun is also right that devo max should accompany a massive reduction in Scottish MPs, and possibly their voting rights at Westminster, analogous to the situation of Ulster between the 1920s and 1970s.
I doubt the SNP would have any objections to this, and the vast majority of Conservatives would see it as a fair compromise.
However it would be calamatous for Labour as not only would they lose many Westminster seats, they would also lose a huge gene pool of leadership talent. A significant number of the most talented Labour politicians have come from Scotland. Scottish Labour politicians are generally better at relating to ordinary working class voters than their counterparts from English inner cities, who tend to be more wet, wonkish and liberal in the Ed Miliband mould.
The more you look at this,
it’s an extraordinary bad deal for the Scots.
Short term I agree with you.
But longer term, if they are forced to generate themselves everything they spend, it could force the Scottish to finally attack the dependency culture and political corruption in the central belt, and to make their economy more dynamic and growth-friendly.
Of course it might also go the other way and degenerate into a basket case which we have to eventually bail out.
“But longer term, if they are forced to generate themselves everything they spend, it could force the Scottish to finally attack the dependency culture and political corruption in the central belt, and to make their economy more dynamic and growth-friendly”.
Hemmelig, I agree completely with that comment. I would also go on to say that because devo max or something approaching it would force whatever government was in power in Scotland to take a large dose of fiscal reality that it would also create conditions conducive to the revival of centre right politics north of the border.
I’ve made the point on here before that for as long as the Scottish government has to look to London for the majority of its funding it will be nigh on impossible for a centre right party to make any electoral headway. The current constitutional position contrives to create a situation where Scottish politics is dominated by questions of how money should be spent rather than how it is raised. The Scottish government takes credit for distributing freebies and will blame London whenever it is unable to do that. It is a situation where the SNP gets an easy ride, and where a party of the centre right simply cannot thrive.
I said before the 2010 GE that I would like to have seen my party pledge to hole an early referendum on independence. As things have turned out the government has had to acquiesce to the holding of such a vote in any case. I think the party’s failure to make such a pledge was a missed opportunity.
I am perfectly aware that I am in a minority in my party on this issue. However I hope more Tories in Scotland begin to realize that there is no future for the Conservatives there as the party of “No”, perpetually defending the last redoubt against any further increase in power for the Scottish government. The party should embrace the idea of an independence referendum and greater fiscal autonomy as the best way of salvaging something from the union that Labour’s ill thought out reforms placed under threat.
I will make one more point on the question of Scotland of an independent Scotland retaining the pound as its currency. As far as I can tell Scotland would be perfectly within its rights to do that irrespective of the views of the government of the remaining UK. Montenegro currently uses the Euro as its currency despite not being a member of the EU. Prior to the advent of the Euro it used the Deutsch Mark. Of course the only problem with using somebody else’s currency is that you also have to accept somebody else’s interest rates. That might prove to be a problem for Scotland, but I would suggest that Scotland’s economy is sufficiently integrated with that of the rest of the UK that any problems that did emerge would be far smaller than those suffered by the likes of Ireland, Spain and Italy as members of the Eurozone in effectively having German levels of interest rates for so many years.
Completely agree with you Kieran, as I suspect do many Scottish business people (many of whom wisely choose not to base their businesses there).